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[GuyKazama]

I wouldn't worry about that right now. Trump's unfavourables are much higher and make Clinton look like Mrs Popular.

I don't know... Trump is only 8 points ahead of Hillary in the unfavorables. These numbers were taken before he started winning primaries and she started attacking Bernie, so they could be closing in.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

 

[CDX]

Essentially, there is none. Super Tuesday will pretty much end the race, unless something drastic happens between now and then. We don't have a ton of Super Tuesday polls, but we did get a batch from PPP a few days ago.

Alabama: Clinton 59 percent, Sanders 31 percent
Arkansas: Clinton 57 percent, Sanders 32 percent
Georgia: Clinton 60 percent, Sanders 26 percent
Louisiana: Clinton 60 percent, Sanders 29 percent
Massachusetts: Sanders 49 percent, Clinton 42 percent
Michigan: Clinton 50 percent, Sanders 40 percent
Mississippi: Clinton 60 percent, Sanders 26 percent
Oklahoma: Clinton 46 percent, Sanders 44 percent
Tennessee: Clinton 58 percent, Sanders 32 percent
Texas: Clinton 57 percent, Sanders 34 percent
Virginia: Clinton 56 percent, Sanders 34 percent
Vermont: Sanders 86 percent, Clinton 10 percent

I did rough math the other day, and posted the following in PoliGaf:

Basically, if we give Hillary and Bernie each the percentage of the vote they have now, and I go ahead and say that every single undecided voter breaks for Bernie (which is incredibly unrealistic, but to make a best case scenario for him) the pledged delegate allocation would be somewhere around

Hillary 558
Bernie 467

When we consider Super Delegates,

Hillary 920
Bernie 475

However, Bernie already failed to meet best case because he lost NV, so, the more likely outcome (keeping the same poll numbers and splitting the undecideds along equal lines)

Hillary 624
Bernie 397

And with Super Delegates

Hillary 1053
Bernie 413

There's just no where for him to make up the pledged delegates, let alone the Supers. These were rough estimates, strictly proportional.

I knew Super Tuesday had potential to be a bloodbath just from looking at the poll numbers, but never did the delegate math.

 

[ivysaur12]

Essentially, there is none. Super Tuesday will pretty much end the race, unless something drastic happens between now and then. We don't have a ton of Super Tuesday polls, but we did get a batch from PPP a few days ago.



I did rough math the other day, and posted the following in PoliGaf:

Basically, if we give Hillary and Bernie each the percentage of the vote they have now, and I go ahead and say that every single undecided voter breaks for Bernie (which is incredibly unrealistic, but to make a best case scenario for him) the pledged delegate allocation would be somewhere around

Hillary 558
Bernie 467

When we consider Super Delegates,

Hillary 920
Bernie 475

However, Bernie already failed to meet best case because he lost NV, so, the more likely outcome (keeping the same poll numbers and splitting the undecideds along equal lines)

Hillary 624
Bernie 397

And with Super Delegates

Hillary 1053
Bernie 413

There's just no where for him to make up the pledged delegates, let alone the Supers. These were rough estimates, strictly proportional.

Yeah, it's quite likely she could have almost half of the 2,383 delegates she needs by next week.

 

[Cybit]

Yeah, it's quite likely she could have almost half of the 2,383 delegates she needs by next week.

Even as someone who is as probability based as I am, I don't see any path to a Sanders win barring crazy scandal / jail time for HRC. I deeply appreciate Sanders pushing Clinton to the left, but I can't see any way Sanders wins.

EDIT: Would like to brag that I called the NV election on the dot in chat almost from the beginning. MATH WINS, BITCHES.

 

[danm999]

I don't know... Trump is only 8 points ahead of Hillary in the unfavorables. These numbers were taken before he started winning primaries and she started attacking Bernie, so they could be closing in.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

Only 8?

She's at -8 and he's at -25. That's a 17 pt gap. And he's doing poorly with Independents who Romney won in 2012 and still lost the election.

Numbers might change but comparing their unfavourables at the moment isn't exactly heartening for Trump.

 

[Link]

At this point, I think the sooner Sanders drops out and endorses Hillary, the better. The longer he hangs around, the more bitter and resentful his base will become when he drops out. Doing it as early as possible will give the time to unite and galvanize the base leading into November.

 

[Cybit]

At this point, I think the sooner Sanders drops out and endorses Hillary, the better. The longer he hangs around, the more bitter and resentful his base will become when he drops out. Doing it as early as possible will give the time to unite and galvanize the base leading into November.

This is magnitudes nicer than 2008, so I am not worried about Sanders voters not going for Clinton. Obama / Clinton was SUPER bitter, and that didn't even end up being meaningful. Sanders will push heavily for Clinton once the GE starts.

 

[Macho Madness]

At this point, I think the sooner Sanders drops out and endorses Hillary, the better. The longer he hangs around, the more bitter and resentful his base will become when he drops out. Doing it as early as possible will give the time to unite and galvanize the base leading into November.

I don't think he drops until he runs out of money.

 

[ivysaur12]

Even as someone who is as probability based as I am, I don't see any path to a Sanders win barring crazy scandal / jail time for HRC. I deeply appreciate Sanders pushing Clinton to the left, but I can't see any way Sanders wins.

EDIT: Would like to brag that I called the NV election on the dot in chat almost from the beginning. MATH WINS, BITCHES.

I feel the exact same way, honestly. And you did!!

Though I called them ~too~ in the bet.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Well, at the rate he's burning through cash now...

His candidacy needs to keep on winning and winning and winning, like Trump, to maintain the cash flow to bankroll his burn rate.

Only when she is running for office? Why would it end the minute she is elected? She wasn't running for office when she was secretary of state. Oh, because she was likely going to run for president in 2016? Well if she gets elected this year, she will likely run again in 2020. So your saying all the hate will go away after that election?

I'm assuming he means that despite her years of baggage and Benghazi! She maintained very high approval ratings during her tenure as Secretary of State and following it. It only deteriorated when she once again became an electoral enemy and the GOP smear machine went full bore again. And it's not going away after the election.

But they will hate Sanders too in the event he wins the nomination; they just don't know or haven't cared enough about him yet to do so.

 

[Link]

This is magnitudes nicer than 2008, so I am not worried about Sanders voters not going for Clinton. Obama / Clinton was SUPER bitter, and that didn't even end up being meaningful. Sanders will push heavily for Clinton once the GE starts.

While true, Obama was an amazingly likable candidate. And even looking past that, I think anyone the DNC put out there could have won in 2008 after the disastrous Bush years. Even though the GOP is a complete dumpster fire, I think it will still take a more unified front to win in November, especially if someone like Rubio gets the nom.

In the end, I think the sooner, the better is all.

 

[gutter_trash]

March 22nd and March 26th primaries have Bernie favourable States

But can he survive Super Tuesday and the March 15th massacre?

 

[Cybit]

Well, at the rate he's burning through cash now...

His candidacy needs to keep on winning and winning and winning, like Trump, to maintain the cash flow to bankroll his burn rate.


I'm assuming he means that despite her years of baggage and Benghazi! She maintained very high approval ratings during her tenure as Secretary of State and following it. It only deteriorated when she once again became an electoral enemy and the GOP smear machine went full bore again. And it's not going away after the election.

But they will hate Sanders too in the event he wins the nomination; they just don't know or haven't cared enough about him yet to do so.

One of the reasons Obama pushed Clinton as SoS is because it would be a really good way to rehabilitate her politically, and despite the animosity of the primary, Barack respects HRC to the umpteenth degree. Also, she has the gift of gab when it comes to actual policy. She married Bill. You have to be oozing charisma on a personal level to snag someone like him.

While true, Obama was an amazingly likable candidate. And even looking past that, I think anyone the DNC put out there could have won in 2008 after the disastrous Bush years. Even though the GOP is a complete dumpster fire, I think it will still take a more unified front to win in November, especially if someone like Rubio gets the nom.

In the end, I think the sooner, the better is all.

If McCain had gotten Lieberman or a non Palin VP pick, that election would have been much, much closer. Had he also gotten through the primary without going insanely to the right, I think he might have been able to beat Obama with a moderate VP pick. McCain was super popular prior to the GOP primaries. Had he not shifted to the right so hard and had it been Clinton over Obama (I worked for Obama), I would have probably voted for McCain, and I'm super liberal. McCain was a masterstroke by the RNC, but he panicked trying to win the GOP primary and then took Palin,

 

[ivysaur12]

March 22nd and March 26th primaries have Bernie favourable States

But can he survive Super Tuesday and the March 15th massacre?

I don't think there's anyway he can survive the 15th.

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio. That's 20% of the total delegates that will be allocated in the entire primary. Hillary could already have over 1000 delegates by March 1st.

She can then coast through the later March states and if she hasn't clinched the nomination by then, win in New York on April 19th. There really is no path forward for Bernie here IMO.

 

[gutter_trash]

I don't think there's anyway he can survive the 15th.

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio. That's 20% of the total delegates that will be allocated in the entire primary. Hillary could already have over 1000 delegates by March 1st.

She can then coast through the later March states and if she hasn't clinched the nomination by then, win in New York on April 19th. There really is no path forward for Bernie here IMO.

Unless all the hipsters from Williamsburg, Brooklyn turn out in huge numbers lol

 

[danm999]

Unless all the hipsters from Williamsburg, Brooklyn turn out in huge numbers lol

Or she weighs in on Chicago deep dish being superior pizza.

 

[2AdEPT]

Reading through this is really depressing. This is is a once in a lifetime opportunity to get on track with real change...It doesnt come along often for any country, let alone the states.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Reading through this is really depressing. This is is a once in a lifetime opportunity to get on track with real change...It doesnt come along often for any country, let alone the states.

No it's not. There will be other candidates like Bernie in the future, and they will be more popular. Despite all odds, the US is slowly working its way back to being liberal.

With a liberal Supreme Court, things could really start taking off, and that doesn't require Bernie in office at all.

Anyone whose younger than 35 or so will probably see nation wide health care in their life times. Maybe even those that are older.

 

[Cybit]

Or she weighs in on Chicago deep dish being superior pizza.

She deserves to lose if she goes to that level of satanic debauchery, and I am from IL.

Spoiler

obviously kidding about the satanic debauchery part, but Poe's Law.

 

[PARANO1A]

What's the current outlook for the Republican outcomes from Super Tuesday? Lots of forecasting in here on Hilary and Bernie. More interested in how the other side will roll out and it seems much less discussed.

 

[ivysaur12]

No it's not. There will be other candidates like Bernie in the future, and they will be more popular. Despite all odds, the US is slowly working its way back to being liberal.

With a liberal Supreme Court, things could really start taking off, and that doesn't require Bernie in office at all.

Anyone whose younger than 35 or so will probably see nation wide health care in their life times. Maybe even those that are older.

The Democratic Party is becoming more liberal. There will be a Bernie Sanders in 2024.

What's the current outlook for the Republican outcomes from Super Tuesday? Lots of forecasting in here on Hilary and Bernie. More interested in how the other side will roll out and it seems much less discussed.

Trump trump trump except Texas but even then Trump trump trump

 

[Josh5890]

I thought for sure that Trump was going to finish third in SC. My money "figuratively" was on Cruz and Rubio being 1 and 2 in either direction. The fact that Trump won a bible belt state in the deep south tells me that it is his nomination to lose. He could implode obviously, but I think at this point he has the clear path to the nomination.

 

[NeoXChaos]

The Democratic Party is becoming more liberal. There will be a Bernie Sanders in 2024.



Trump trump trump except Texas but even then Trump trump trump

Trump in most if not all except for Texas. Rubio won't win anything until March 15th if he's lucky

 

[Veritigo_X]

Extremely. We're going to be stuck with 8 more years, nearly a decade, of the same shit. I don't even want to think about it.

The same shit of moving the country towards the left? Sounds good to me!

 

[TumblingHippo]

Trump in most if not all except for Texas. Rubio won't win anything until March 15th if he's lucky

If Trump sweeps every state but one, and Rubio wins that one, the media will say that he's really the winner.

 

[Rubenov]

If Trump sweeps every state but one, and Rubio wins that one, the media will say that he's really the winner.

The one State Trump isn't winning is Texas, but Rubio isn't winning it either. For the next 2 weeks Rubio isn't winning anything but Puerto Rico, which isn't even a state.

 

[.JayZii]

This presidential race has been very unpredictable and it's hard to say anything with certainty, but I said it on page two, and I'll say it again:

Those FFX comparisons are no joke.

Spoiler

In the end, Bernie will sacrifice himself and become Hillary's final aeon to defeat Sin and bring a temporary Calm. Trump will return in four years to wreak havoc.

 

[Averon]

More like keeping it from pure disaster. That, in itself, is fine and important, but there is not much progression occurring. That is the depressing part.

True. Ain't nothing moving leftward as long as the GOP holds the House. A Hilary presidency is all about holding the small gains Obama made.

 

[Dr. Benton Quest]

True. Ain't nothing moving leftward as long as the GOP holds the House. A Hilary presidency is all about holding the small gains Obama made.

Hopefully with a liberal court we can strike down some of this gerrymandering bullshit. Might take a decade, but I'm still young enough to wait it out.

 

[Ether_Snake]

...conveniently ignoring Sanders himself saying "vote Democrat in the primaries regardless of who it is".

I know I keep saying this, but all these so-called Sanders supporters are choosing to ignore one of his most important messages. Well, two, because they'd also be ignoring the "get out there and vote!" message as well.

Nobody can in good conscience say they support a candidate whose platform involves high voter turnout and a political revolution at every level, if they literally throw in the towel at the very first setback. There's nothing progressive about tuning Bernie's campaign into a fad.

People have stuff to do, like bring the kids to school, buy groceries, go visit sick grandma, etc. You get elections, you vote then. Don't expect much more. There's nothing new at play here, this has all happened before, and happens all the time in western countries. Progress keeps moving at the relatively slow pace, and it won't speed up through politics but more likely through technological advancements.

 

[Rafa=FedKilla]

Trump has a really strong chance to win Texas.

 

[Rubenov]

Trump has a really strong chance to win Texas.

Yep, Cruz has been losing ground there. He's still expected to win his own state though, so I wouldn't bet on Trump.

 

[User 463088]

March 22nd and March 26th primaries have Bernie favourable States

But can he survive Super Tuesday and the March 15th massacre?

I mean, March 22nd looks better for him, but the total number of delegates awarded that day are less than what is awarded just to Ohio a week before. This was always an uphill climb for him, but his early successes in Iowa and New Hampshire become a bit of a problem for him. It was great for fundraising, and I think that's why he smartly took advantage of it. I don't think he will be able to afford a string of losses.

His path was win Iowa, win New Hampshire and win Nevada. Hold on and survive SC, and hope he made enough inroads among AA to win at least one southern state. If he could have done that, and maybe kept it within 10 points in most Super Tuesday states, he could have ridden March out. As it stands now...I just don't see it.

 

[Rafa=FedKilla]

Yep, Cruz has been losing ground there. He's still expected to win his own state though, so I wouldn't bet on Trump.

I didn't bet on him, I voted for him. The recent polling is from a few weeks ago, but I expect Trump to make a big push here.

 

[RustyNails]

This presidential race has been very unpredictable and it's hard to say anything with certainty, but I said it on page two, and I'll say it again:

Lol apt analogy.

Although methinks Trump will just go away after 2016. His ego wont let him run 2nd time and there's no reason for him to. I think Rubot will be the "crowned" candidate from establishment. But who the fuck knows what the electorate looks like in 2016. We might be in the middle of a 2nd civil war for all I know.

 

[Ecotic]

True. Ain't nothing moving leftward as long as the GOP holds the House. A Hilary presidency is all about holding the small gains Obama made.

Don't give up hope just yet, Trump is potentially an awful enough candidate that he could cost Republicans Congress. Democrats could get a key piece of legislation or two in such a scenario, and easy confirmation of a couple of Justices.

 

[Azzanadra]

These numbers are depressing. 4 (8?) more years under the ogliarchy it is....sigh

Always thought the revolution would happen during my lifetime, and that finally, Sanders would be the chosen one to kickstart it in the States. I suppose, at least, the status quo is better than whatever Trump and Cruz have in store.

 

[Leona Lewis]

These numbers are depressing. 4 (8?) more years under the ogliarchy it is....sigh

Always thought the revolution would happen during my lifetime, and that finally, Sanders would be the chosen one to kickstart it in the States. I suppose, at least, the status quo is better than whatever Trump and Cruz have in store.

"the revolution"

"the chosen one"

This post is parody, surely.

 

[SoRuffShoNuff]

Don't give up hope just yet, Trump is potentially an awful enough candidate that he could cost Republicans Congress. Democrats could get a key piece of legislation or two in such a scenario, and easy confirmation of a couple of Justices.

No way the republicans lose congress, they are gerrymandered into impossible to overcome safe districts. The census taking place after a midterm election ensured that.

 

[cpp_is_king]

Yep, Cruz has been losing ground there. He's still expected to win his own state though, so I wouldn't bet on Trump.

Is Texas winner take all?

 

[RustyNails]

No way the republicans lose congress, they are gerrymandered into impossible to overcome safe districts. The census taking place after a midterm election ensured that.

I think Nate Silver predicted that Democrats need to win by 8+ points in order to gain back the Congress. It's not impossible, but really difficult. We need a Mondale, Dole, McGovern like blowout. It has happened in the past and with Trump's presence might happen again...fingers crossed.

 

[ivysaur12]

Is Texas winner take all?

Above 50% iirc

 

[skynidas]

These numbers are depressing. 4 (8?) more years under the ogliarchy it is....sigh

Always thought the revolution would happen during my lifetime, and that finally, Sanders would be the chosen one to kickstart it in the States. I suppose, at least, the status quo is better than whatever Trump and Cruz have in store.

the revolution... this is fucking hilarious. bunch of privileged pricks that have no fucking idea what they are talking about.

i would love to see people like you actually living in a place where the supposed "revolution" actually happened. I can tell you is not fun, families broken, people leaving their country because of the supposed "revolution".

it's just gross. leave your fucking computer and travel to other countries, and don't go just a week, live there for months to see if you want your shitty revolution.

 

[Ecotic]

No way the republicans lose congress, they are gerrymandered into impossible to overcome safe districts. The census taking place after a midterm election ensured that.

Like Rusty said, you just need a 2008 level win. 7-8 points, that's doable if Trump just completely fails as a nominee. For sure, Democrats can get the Senate if November is merely decent.

 

[Azzanadra]

the revolution... this is fucking hilarious. bunch of privileged pricks that have no fucking idea what they are talking about.

i would love to see people like you actually living in a place where the supposed "revolution" actually happened. I can tell you is not fun, families broken, people leaving their country because of the supposed "revolution".

it's just gross. leave your fucking computer and travel to other countries, and don't go just a week, live there for months to see if you want your shitty revolution.

By "revolution" I don't mean some full blown communist revolution- just you know, a country that isn't pseudo-progressive like the States. The Nordic states is what Sanders admires, and thats what I would hope for as well. Heck, I live in Canada, and the States becoming something like this would be great, no? Free Health care, affordable college.... surely thats something everybody wants.

And I assure you, no families have been broken and its plenty of fun up North, so it can work. The only question is, if the American people are willing to put their faith in the one man who can do it.

So to answer your last point, I'm already living the revolution and its great- sure it could do with improvement even here, but its definitely something America should strive for.

 

[Jarmel]

There haven't been a lot of polls from SEC states right? Could see Rubio picking up a couple.

 

[TyphoonStruggle]

As a Bernie supporter, I think a lot of Hillary supporters need to chill out.

Hillary will likely get the nomination, so there's no need to attack Bernie people. What you should be doing is encouraging Bernie people to continue grassroots movement into the general election and then into the midterms. We should all try to get a democrat house and senate for Hillary.

I think Bernie people are very sensitive to bullshit in politics. That makes them prone to anger and anti-establishment nonsense. Maybe they view Obama's presidency as too incremental rather than change. But the truth is Obama did achieve a lot of good things. He could have done more if democrats had majority in the house and senate after 2010 etc.

Just take it easy on the Bernie supporters when Hillary gets the nomination, and try to keep everyone positive.

The truth is that we're better together and not divided.

P.S.: I would have preferred the US President to be Bernie from 2016-2020 and Warren from 2020-2028.

 

[SneakersSO]

Here's a recent poll indicating 21% of Sanders supporters say they would not support Clinton in the general election.

Exit polls in 2008 had Obama getting roughly 90% of the Democratic vote. Note that Obama's performance among Democrats was roughly equal to McCain's performance among Republicans. It was also roughly equal to Kerry's performance in 2004 among Democrats. There's just no evidence that Clinton voters actually did abandon Obama in significant numbers.

One can argue of course about precise question wording, the dangers of going on only one poll, etc. I would love to do a comparison with more data but it would be quite time consuming.

Now allow me to clarify my original point. Some people have made a large deal about the number of Sanders supporters who say they aren't voting for Clinton in November if she's the nominee, suggesting it spells certain doom for her. I am pointing out that 2008 was a similarly acrimonious primary and yet Obama won over most Clinton supporters by the time the general election rolled around. Therefore we can't take the current poll numbers at face value; Clinton may well win many of these voters over if she's the nominee. That's not to say that she automatically will or that she is entitled to those votes or anything like that, just that it's not set in stone that Sanders voters will abandon Clinton any more than it was set in stone that Clinton supporters would abandon Obama in 2008.

As a Bernie supporter, I am just not interested in voting for anyone else (save Elizabeth Warren) for President should he not get the nomination. I know many on the left will attack me for that, i'm fine with it, but I honestly don't feel theres any reason I should. I know several friends of mine who are in the same boat. I've been disgruntled with the political process in this country for some time, and Bernie represented a break from that. Also, I don't feel Hillary would have the best interests of the citizenry at heart.

I've made peace with that fact that she'll likely win, and we'll have the same old political gridlock & appeasing to corporate interests that we've had for some time now. Just because I feel it most likely will happen, doesn't mean I have to go over & cast my vote for someone I don't believe in. Theres only one candidate I believe in, and i'm not gonna vote for someone I don't believe in. Its just not how I roll.

 

[Zornack]

As a Bernie supporter, I am just not interested in voting for anyone else (save Elizabeth Warren) for President should he not get the nomination. I know many on the left will attack me for that, i'm fine with it, but I honestly don't feel theres any reason I should. I know several friends of mine who are in the same boat. I've been disgruntled with the political process in this country for some time, and Bernie represented a break from that. Also, I don't feel Hillary would have the best interests of the citizenry at heart.

I've made peace with that fact that she'll likely win, and we'll have the same old political gridlock & appeasing to corporate interests that we've had for some time now. Just because I feel it most likely will happen, doesn't mean I have to go over & cast my vote for someone I don't believe in. Theres only one candidate I believe in, and i'm not gonna vote for someone I don't believe in. Its just now how I roll.

Let's say Bernie comes out in support of Hillary. What is your rational for abstaining then?

 

[TyphoonStruggle]

Let's say Bernie comes out in support of Hillary. What is your rational for abstaining then?

Yeah.... Attacking him/her will make him change his mind. That sounds like the smart thing to do.

Edit: Just to be clear. You're kind of proving his/her point.