OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Kinda goes hand in hand. Because of his racism, they assume it's not designed to help the undesirables.
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The South Carolina Primary & Nevada Caucuses |Feb 20, 23, 27| Continuing The Calm
- Thread starter NeoXChaos
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Kinda goes hand in hand. Because of his racism, they assume it's not designed to help the undesirables.
You mean long enough to have a record and be vetted as a politician? I think people have had their time to get to know Clinton. Trump has a history of saying literally whatever whenever to whoever is listening for political gain. And don't try to put Clinton into this box because her views on things progressed while Trump regressed back on abortion and immigration. Hillary may be more divisive with white liberal people, but Trump is far and away more divisive among the general voting polulation.
boiled goose
good with gravy
They both actually have similar favorabity and unfavorability ratings.
Trump 38, 58
Clinton 41, 53
First number is favorability.
Clinton doing better. But both are divisive. More people dislike them than like them
Heh, this made me chuckle. I like that lol
Ok, so like I said. Trump is the more divisive. He has a 20 point spread compared to Clinton's 12 points.
Plenty of Sanders supporters, myself included, will gladly settle for Clinton. Have you not looked at the GOP offerings this year? Remember, if you abstain from voting you're giving half a vote to the GOP candidate. Make no mistake, your political idealism and view of Sanders as a "savior" is irrational and is the type of way the GOP could win this election.
If you actually care about Sanders' message, you vote for whomever gets the nomination, and you continue to vote in local elections to make real change possible.
Baron Aloha
A Shining Example
And I'm saying you can't just look at today's numbers and say that's that. Hillary has been in public life longer. The like or dislike for her has set in far more than it has for Trump.
That's assuming she even goes up against Trump. Rubio could still win this thing if the establishment coalesces behind him.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Rubio would require a historical change in voting to get the nomination. It would be record setting. That's not going to happen.
Last weekend pretty much set the game as Trump v Clinton.
Last weekend pretty much set the game as Trump v Clinton.
It's almost unbelievable to even think Clinton is seriously going up against Donald Trump. The Gods must love us.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Im less confident than you.
Trump is riding an excited right wing base while HillarY's campaign is not riding on excitement.
This is a year with strong anti establishment appeal and an increased focus on political corruption.
Wait till trump says he bribed Hillary so you cant trust her. Wait till trump says he is gonna work for the people and not wall street. These are Hillary's Achilles heels.
And god forbid something fishy comes out relating to corruption between the Department of state and the Clinton Foundation.
Polls have clinton beating Trump, and it could be a pounding, but i have my worries.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Trump's not going to appeal to minorities, at all. He can't win without them. It would require an unprecedented conservative white male turnout for Trump to overcome losing the minority votes.
I wouldn't worry about it.
I wouldn't worry about it.
EatinOlives
Member
Exactly. The sheer magnitude of new white voters required to outnumber every minority he has pushed away would be tantamount to an entirely new demographic conjured out of thin air. Yes, trump is a very unusual candidate but he's not a magician.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Do you have any actual numbers on this? For swing states for example? I know demographically Republicans are pretty much fucked but i need some comfort.
Veritigo_X
Member
I will add: due to our odd distribution of electoral votes favoring blue states, the Republican candidate will also have to win the popular vote by at least 1.5% in order to have a 50% shot at getting past 269EVs.
Earlier this year, the Washington Post did a statistical analysis of the relationship between states' probabilities of going red/blue vs the national popular vote:
The hill that the GOP ticket has to climb is incredibly steep.
The Lamonster
Member
It's healthy to be worried...it's almost like being worried is a requirement to get democrats out to the polls. We don't leave our houses unless we're scared of losing.
lol not even close. Also, she has more name recognition than anyone else and that's arguably the most important thing in elections when it comes time to vote.
That was literally exactly the point of my original post. Clinton's favor ability has been the result of years of exposure and millions in attack ads and Benghazi investigations. She can't get much lower. Trump however, has only seen attack ads from the right and his favorability rating could drop if his shitty ideas get blasted all over the tv/radio by Clinton. I could see him losing more ground than Hillary.
Baron Aloha
A Shining Example
And my point was that along with that "set" approval/disapproval rating that comes from being in public life for so long comes a certain base of people who have grown to hate her over the years and who will turn out just to vote against her. IMO, hate is probably the strongest political motivator there is (more so than like, hope, or fear).
Macho Madness
Member
If you want to clearly see how much our demographics have changed elections over the past 30 years, look no further than comparing 2012 to 1988.
Mitt Romney and George H W Bush each won 59-60% of the white vote.
Here's the difference:
1988 - Bush wins with 426 electoral votes. A huge landslide victory.
2012 - Romney gets 206, which is not even close to winning.
Mitt Romney and George H W Bush each won 59-60% of the white vote.
Here's the difference:
1988 - Bush wins with 426 electoral votes. A huge landslide victory.
2012 - Romney gets 206, which is not even close to winning.
Link
The Autumn Wind
And you don't feel Trump will suffer the same effect?
Unless the GOP changes things drastically, this is their new theme music:If you want to clearly see how much our demographics have changed elections over the past 30 years, look no further than comparing 2012 to 1988.
Mitt Romney and George H W Bush each won 59-60% of the white vote.
Here's the difference:
1988 - Bush wins with 426 electoral votes. A huge landslide victory.
2012 - Romney gets 206, which is not even close to winning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Yw5jkAHgME
gutter_trash
Banned
the day when Texas goes blue....
That will be the day the current GOP collapses and rebuilds into something else. The way though the electoral college will close if they lose Texas.
You're in it
The South Carolina Primary & Nevada Caucuses |Feb 20,23, 27| Continuing The Calm : Page 31
Black Republican
Member
this is it, i almost missed it myself
Wafflecakes
Member
Rooting for Trump in NV. Though looking at the lineup, Hillary really has no bad options for opponents.
krackerjack
Member
Golly, how I would love to see Hillary win Texas. The meltdown of all meltdowns would commence.
Orbis Tabula
Member
So when should one expect results to be coming in today?
Ziltoidia 9
Member
About 12am eastern.
NV caucuses are a time mess. Some start at 5PST-7PST. All close at 9:00 PT.
Orbis Tabula
Member
lastflowers
Banned
by the repubs? I'm sure many of my HS friends will be lighting up my facebook feed....
So I forget - do the caucus results get calculated/reported live? or only after they close?
Macho Madness
Member
They're counting votes by having precinct chairpersons send cell phone pictures of the vote totals to the state Republican party. What a mess.
He can win without them. The democrats worst enemy has always been voter turnout. Their party is something like 12 million more, yet the house and senate is controlled by the GOP.
Anoregon
The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
Neither Hillary nor Bernie may elicit the minority turnout that Obama did, but fear of a Trump presidency might.
balladofwindfishes
Member
But he really can't. There aren't enough angry white people to make up the difference of even an unprecedented small minority turnout.
Trump would have to create entirely new demographics out of thin air. Or manage to convert a ton of old white Democrats to his side.
The GOP needs a miracle to win the Whitehouse with how they are currently. Trump is not that miracle. George W Bush would have been that miracle, had he not existed back then and ran now. He knew to appeal to minorities at least a little bit, and it paid off. That's the GOP's ticket to the white house, not riling up a bunch of racists (who were voting for you anyway).
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
That's a weird graph. So it shows the increase or decrease relative to the last government? Is there a graphic showing absolute numbers?
Well depends by how much and in how many states. If he loses as close again as Iowa, he is still in the game. But if major losses pile up, then he probably can't justify to run anymore.
Macho Madness
Member
It depends on how he does. The problem is that if the trend holds, he's going to do quite badly in big delegate states, and he's essentially conceded them because he's not spending any money to try and win them. If he does as badly on Super Tuesday as he's expected to, his chances get verrrry long.
Trickling out from what? Republican Nevada caucuses are done at night. As others said, don't expect results until 12AM EST (5AM GMT), and maybe some useless entrance polls leading up to that.
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