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[Voysa Reezun]

I think they'll stay home, vote third-party, or write in a candidate's name.

I would go so far as to say a Chinese economic meltdown or a terrorist attack won't propel Trump to a win because so many people HATE this dude.

 

[Red Blaster]

hildawg is such a horrible candidate that he's got a chance

 

[Grover Cleveland]

So who do you guys think the more moderate Republicans that hate Trump would vote for between him and Hillary?

Trump

And it's not close.

There will be no "he wasn't my candidate in the primary and I hate my party's nominee, so I'll vote for someone I am diametrically opposed to ideologically and risk the party losing the WH just because" for the Grand Ol Party.

 

[benjipwns]

So he can get away with a year of BS, hate speech, and general craziness as long as he acts like he meant none of that closer to election?

Most voters don't pay attention to political news.

 

[BennyBlanco]

So who do you guys think the more moderate Republicans that hate Trump would vote for between him and Hillary?

They'll vote for Trump just like the die hard Bernie Bros will vote for Hillary.

 

[RPGCrazied]

I just saw this line he used last night.

"I love the poorly educated"

Of course you do Trump, of course you do. That is your base. They are to ignorant to know otherwise. Congratulations.

 

[LegendofLex]

So he can get away with a year of BS, hate speech, and general craziness as long as he acts like he meant none of that closer to election?

This is how most Republican candidates have been getting elected for years now.

 

[Algebrah]

At first I was surprised he was the republican front runner, but I now realize he really captures the white conservative mindset is about. I don't think he will win. There are a lot of republicans out there that can't stand his social beliefs either.

 

[Alex_Mexico]

A small list of Trump targets

That hasn't slowed down either. In fact, who hasn't he offended at this point? Basically, no one. Trump's targets:

The Pope
George W. Bush
Women
Mexican immigrants
Fox News
Refugees
Muslims
The Koch brothers
Washington
Apple

Heck, even liberals will agree on some of those. Bush. Fox. Koch Brothers. Washington?....the Pope?(maybe)

Democrats would never openly mock or engage in any discussion of ideals with the Pope for various reasons, one of them being that in theory since they're not as religious why even care what a religious leader had to say? They would especially avoid attacking this Pope whose teachings (with exception of abortion and gay marriage) have proven to resonate more with what American politics think is "liberal".

Not Trump. Trump don't give a damn.

 

[Misha]

They'll vote for Trump just like the die hard Bernie Bros will vote for Hillary.

Yup. my dad is incredibly concerned with Trump but he's not willing to vote for Hillary (who kills people) or Bernie (who wants to take his money) so he's going to vote for his party's guy

 

[balladofwindfishes]

This is how most Republican candidates have been getting elected for years now.

Except Romney. It's hard to dial back on primary rhetoric during the general.

 

[zer0blivion]

Monday night on CBC's The National they interviewed some Trump voters in South Carolina. It was legitimately frightening.

The Voters of Trump Nation
https://youtu.be/ls9qY449aCw

I don't know how much of a chance he has, but some people just want to watch the world burn.

 

[Cybrwzrd]

At least she's not planning to get rid of Obamacare and she is pro-LBGT, pro gay marriage and pro-choice. And looking at her website she seems to be for paid family/medical leave, for free community colleges, for lower student debt interest rates, pro-unions and plans to raise the minimum wage.

Actually most of her policies seem to be good for non-white and poor/middle class people.

Her husband on the other hand harmed both greatly with NAFTA in the long term. They enriched themselves by sucking Wall Street off and going as far as repealing Glass-Stegall. She may be wearing a sheepskin coat now to blend in with the rest of the herd, but she ate one of the sheep to get it.

 

[RPGCrazied]

Monday night on CBC's The National they interviewed some Trump voters in South Carolina. It was legitimately frightening.

The Voters of Trump Nation
https://youtu.be/ls9qY449aCw

I don't know how much of a chance he has, but some people just want to watch the world burn.

Yep. Trump supporters scare me more than Trump does. They actually carry out the violence he spews.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

To win Trump needs about 65% of the white vote. Romney had 60% in 2012. a 5% swing is not out of the question under the right conditions. (major terrorist attack, recession, another Hillary scandal, etc.)

That said, the last candidate who garnered 65% of the white vote was Reagan in 1984.

 

[Davidion]

I'm going to leave this article here. It's a worthy opinion, imo.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/24/donald-trump-victory-nevada-caucus-voter-anger

 

[Macho Madness]

Yes. He can. But he is stoppable.

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

He's got it in the bag.

 

[Guevara]

Is it an underestimation of Trump or an overestimation of voter intelligence?

Oh I definitely think Trump deserves credit. He obviously understands how narrow his path to victory is, both in the primary and the general. Yet he keeps executing brilliantly, rarely makes mistakes, and spins everything in his favor.

 

[Rubenov]

All of super tuesday is proportional allocation and he needs to do win with greater than 35% in them to have a shot at having enough delegates to get the nomination. he also needs to win all the winner take all states including CT which has a 50% threshold to be winner take all.

Okay, keep believing that. I'll look for you when he's the nominee. You're the only hard believer I've found.

 

[CloudyTuba]

I have to believe in my heart that he has no chance because the alternative is to lose the last remaining morsels of hope and respect I retain for this country.

 

[benjipwns]

I have to believe in my heart that he has no chance because the alternative is to lose the last remaining morsels of hope and respect I retain for this country.

I doubt 100% of people will turn out and vote 100% for any candidate.

This isn't a true people's democracy.

 

[Shao Kahn on the Lawn]

At what point are we going to stop underestimating Trump?

When there is some demonstrable evidence that he has appeal beyond the overwhelmingly White GOP electorate.

 

[Sibersk Esto]

I think there's a real chance, and it'll be a sad day

 

[Darkgran]

Anyone saying he has a chance is crazy. He can't win because of the electoral...

 

[NorthernIX]

When there is some demonstrable evidence that he has appeal beyond the overwhelmingly White GOP electorate.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

That's about 50 people, note the "Nevada Republicans"

Congrats on your 50 Hispanic votes, Trump. They were hard earned.

 

[Veritigo_X]

He did say "overwhelmingly white." Those percentages make up such a small portion of the overall electorate so it's not really useful to discuss them. They certainly don't represent Trump's appeal to non-white voters as a whole.

 

[Anoregon]

Again, that is a poll of hispanic GoP members, not the overall hispanic population. You could also show a poll of Black GoP voters thinking Obama sucks, but that doesn't change the fact that he recieved like 95% of the black vote.

 

[Splendor]

He got 41% of Nevada Hispanics, which makes up 20% of hispanics in the state. So He has roughly 8% of the hispanic vote in the state where he is polling best right now and has been polling well in since October. Also this is an entrance that has a sample size of roughly 200 people so this is not concrete evidence of his appeal.

 

[diablos991]

Of course he has a chance. He has a better chance than any republican on the field.

 

[benjipwns]

Of course he has a chance. He has a better chance than any republican on the field.

Somebody forgot that Ben Carson is still in the race!

 

[billeh]

The unfavorable gap isn't really that large between Clinton and Trump. Trump, while record breaking is at 60 and Hillary is at 52? And I find it hard to believe any republicans will be switching sides for Hillary of all people.

 

[jmdajr]

Of course he has a chance. He has a better chance than any republican on the field.

Funny how we think this now.

We've gone too far man.

 

[Kyzer]

He has a chance because republicans have a chance because not enough people go and vote

 

[Salz01]

I can't wait for Trump to win. Can't stand Hillary and the Clintons. They are worse than having another Bush in the office. When Trump wins I'd actually watch the state of the Union address. He would get more people watching / debating politics than she would.

 

[benjipwns]

I can't wait for Trump to win. Can't stand Hillary and the Clintons. They are worse than having another Bush in the office. When Trump wins I'd actually watch the state of the Union address. He would get more people watching / debating politics than she would.

Plus somebody would finally think of the Kurds! They've got a horrible deal!

 

[Nakazato]

He's going to win. And America will pay

 

[Calamari41]

If you take the 2012 map and Trump flips Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania (reasonable in the case of OH and FL, only under the right conditions in the case of PA), then he takes it. It doesn't really matter if Latino turnout in California or Colorado or New Mexico breaks records to vote against him if he can get blue collar whites in Ohio and Pennsylvania to vote for him. My point is, Hillary should probably take him seriously.

 

[DragonSworne]

So who do you guys think the more moderate Republicans that hate Trump would vote for between him and Hillary?

Trump is the moderate Republican

 

[DrGonzo615]

If you asked me 8 months ago I would've said no way in hell but he continues to defy all political rules and common sense.

As it stands right now, his campaign has probably done some major damage to any political discourse for the foreseeable future already.

 

[NorthernIX]

He got 41% of Nevada Hispanics, which makes up 20% of hispanics in the state. So He has roughly 8% of the hispanic vote in the state where he is polling best right now and has been polling well in since October. Also this is an entrance that has a sample size of roughly 200 people so this is not concrete evidence of his appeal.

It was 1573 people polled. Yes I know... still not huge, but most national polls are using about 500 or so to get their averages.

Edit: And is it just me, or were sample sizes much larger in previous elections? I could've sworn it used to be at least 1000 people or more for most polls. I'll have to try and find some old data somewhere.

 

[diablos991]

So who do you guys think the more moderate Republicans that hate Trump would vote for between him and Hillary?

Trump is essentially an independent who gamed the republican establishment into a corner and grabbed them by the balls. They go with him or he makes GOP irrelevant in the general and hands the victory to a Democrat.

 

[Ethelwulf]

To much entropy to have any useful information yet... Who knows

 

[Ganzlinger]

People are still in denial about the Trump missile? The chances are real.

 

[CrazyDude]

People are still in denial about the Trump missile? The chances are real.

Yes, because numbers don't add up. People are only going by their gut feeling at the moment and somehow think the primary is an exact replica of how a GE would look like.

 

[Nibiru]

I can't wait for Trump to win. Can't stand Hillary and the Clintons. They are worse than having another Bush in the office. When Trump wins I'd actually watch the state of the Union address. He would get more people watching / debating politics than she would.

I don't think Hillary is worse than a Bush but I would put them on par with each other in that they get so much corporate money that they are pretty much slaves to their donors. She'll just be tossing jobs and favors left and right to big contributors and will not push her luck because she will need them again when she runs for re-election.

I also think Trump will win the general and imo should take Rubio as VP.

 

[djtiesto]

Trump got 44% of the latino vote in Nevada tonight. think about this.

We are all fucked. this guy is going to take the presidency.

This was really shocking to me... Even if the Hispanics that turned out for the NV caucuses were very low in number.

Trump is also doing really well in other states with decidedly mixed demographics (such as NY), it's the middle America, mostly white, heavily religious states where he's down compared to Cruz and Rubio. And a lot of moderate/undecided voters prefer Trump to Cruz/Rubio... I said to my mom and aunt (who are moderate Democrat) that if forced at gunpoint to vote Republican I'd take Trump over the other 2, and they both agreed with me...

I still don't think he'll stand a chance against the Clinton machine, though.

 

[Angelus Errare]

This is how most Republican candidates have been getting elected for years now.

Yea social media wasn't a thing to bring that shit back either. Ask Romney.

 

[Kusagari]

His charisma and blank slate persona scare me.

If he pivots enough he might be able to get more minority support than Romney and also peel off voters from usual a Democrat blue collar whites in states like Ohio.

I'm done counting Trump out. He's done nothing but prove us wrong over and over.