Does anybody really believe Trump has a chance of winning?

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Brainfreeze said:
Honestly, I think part of it is to drive home how he's not bought. He's real and different and new. No politician could get away with what he's saying, and that makes his position all the more clear, and that's what people want, someone in that position.

Of course, some of the people support him for those views. But many support him because of the simple ability to express them confidently, regardless of the ideas themselves. It releases a lot of frustration.
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"I like that he speaks his mind, even if what he says is some of the most offensive shit possible!"

Fucking morons.
 
"I don't want a politician running things!"

Boy are you going to be disappointed when you find out what a president is. Also disappointed in what they can accomplish.
 
Hillary will be destroyed by trump. I can see him running Hillary's famous 3am phone call (which she ran against obama) over and over with flashes to Benghazi .

Actually I see that running regardless of the GOP nominee.
 
nature boy said:
Chance?

He'll win unless Hillary starts exciting the Democratic base.

There might be additional swing states up for grabs.
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She's got the base. She needs something/anything else. Blueblood Democrats are the only votes she can reliably count on. Independents, die-hard progressives and people who are on the fence about even participating? Not so much.
 
JesseEwiak said:
Yup, the Clinton's were so polarized that he walked out of office with a 65% approval rating.
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Presidential approval ratings have nothing to do with it. They were openly called murderers, liar, and thieves...Believe me..."polarizing" is the nicest description of what the Republicans at the time thought of her and Bill.
 
This forum is starting to sound like mainstream press outfits. He wasn't "suppose" to win anything. He's pulling better numbers than any republican nominee contender before him, all of this is flying in the face of the Washington elites (of both parties) who said it couldn't happen. His ceiling is 10%! 18%! 22%! 28%! 34%!... 45%? He's going to change his rhetoric the second the GE starts, and the low-information swing voters (the ones who's vote picks the president) will see the attacks calling him a racist, sexist, xenophobe, etc... as Left-wing opposition research. It won't be the issue people are making it out to be, and whoever the democrat is, will have to withstand his ability to dominate the media cycle. There are a lot of "good candidates" on paper who couldn't pull it off.
 
samendolaro said:
Hillary will be destroyed by trump. I can see him running Hillary's famous 3am phone call (which she ran against obama) over and over with flashes to Benghazi .

Actually I see that running regardless of the GOP nominee.
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Which has been shown to have zero traction with the general public.

Trump is winning in a small pool of self-identified Republicans against candidates saying or dog whistling some pretty comparable things with regards to minorities, foreign affairs, etc..

In a general election the vast majority of the American people take what they feel is the "safe" choice. Most people old enough to remember viewed the late 90's as a good period in America overall. Most people young enough to not remember it well aren't voting for a Republican.

Will Hillary energize the base or some such? Not likely, but she will generate some energy in that she would be the first woman POTUS, she is a known quantity, and while she is as 'establishment' as it gets she does so with a level of competency that the average person at least respects.

Sanders v. Trump would be a wild card as Sanders could scare the middle majority into voting Trump.
 
I honestly don't even know anymore. The idea that Donald Trump is well on the road to being the candidate now would have seemed insane a year ago.

On paper, Clinton should win easily. But I just don't know anymore. Trump will be popular with the rising anti-establishment sentiment. He'll attract the far right with his anti-Muslim, anti-Mexican rants. He attracts a whole different sector with his ant-Bush, anti-Iraq War rants. And never underestimate the novelty/celebrity factor (Schwarzenegger, Ventura).
 
Arnie7 said:
Not just a chance.

I'm willing to say he's going to win it.
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And how do you think he'll do that exactly?

People keep saying this but they never explain how. Is it because he has momentum within his party? What does that have to do with the general electorate, who largely despise him? If likely voter polls nearing November show Trump with a lead (they won't), do you honestly think that alone won't energize more democrats to vote?
 
Piggus said:
And how do you think he'll do that exactly?

People keep saying this but they never explain how. Is it because he has momentum within his party? What does that have to do with the general electorate, who largely despise him? If likely voter polls nearing November show Trump with a lead (they won't), do you honestly think that alone won't energize more democrats to vote?
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Not enough of them; and I think Donald would bring more people out to vote for him. People are tired of the same old politicians, which is why both Trump and Bernie have their movements. If Bernie loses the nomination, his supporters can go three ways (Vote Hillary, abstain, or vote trump) and I think a sizable portion of his base would vote Trump on the sole issue of voting against the establishment.

I think people here assume too much in Hillary's likability and underestimate Trump's ability to excite voters and knowing exactly what people want to hear and then saying it. I can easily see him attacking Hillary's character in any number of ways (Email scandal, Bill's infidelity, the transcripts, her ties to Wallstreet). He can co-opt some of Bernie's platform and retool some of it for his own use, winning over moderates/independents, not to mention Republicans are fired up and want a Republican in the white house.

A nimble navigator indeed.
 
Anoregon said:
Isn't Doctor Doom actually a great head of state for his people, though? Latveria is mad prosperous.
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Well that's true.
But he's still an iron fisted dictator who demands absolute loyalty from his people.
I don't believe Trump is a s competent as Doctor Doom.
 
He doesn't stand a chance, but yeah, a lot of people have talked themselves into the idea that moving further right beyond the tactics and image that failed spectacularly in 08 and 2012 will somehow now work this year. Its the same damn shit with a new coat of paint.

This year its being pushed as 'anti establishment' and as someone who 'isn't a part of the system'. So surely this time alienating women minorities and young people while saying racist shit and going crazy will work.... even though we just saw it fail twice in a row; but whatever its different THIS time
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3rdman said:
Presidential approval ratings have nothing to do with it. They were openly called murderers, liar, and thieves...Believe me..."polarizing" is the nicest description of what the Republicans at the time thought of her and Bill.
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Republican's call every Democrat that.

treason-poster_web_2.jpg
 
xxracerxx said:
"I like that he speaks his mind, even if what he says is some of the most offensive shit possible!"

Fucking morons.
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The way I see it, there's 3 types of people by and large attracted to Trump.

Those who just love that he's anti-establishment, those who agree with some of his stances (immigrants are bad for the economy/ my job personally, terrorists (aka radical muslims) are scary for my family, big businesses in politics are a problem, etc.) but not necessarily how he aims to achieve them, and those who cheer when he brings up the wall and genuinely think that's going to happen.

The first group is dangerous, but I wouldn't call them straight dumb. The last group is stupid.

The middle group is the group that Clinton should be looking at. They feel like they fell through the cracks of current political discourse. Lower income, lower educated whites who don't feel like either party pays attention to them: they're essentially the former-middle class that fell out that Bernie often talks about. If Clinton can assure them that she has plans for these things without falling back on racism and a tough-guy attitude, she wins no problem. But that's difficult, because Trump has essentially set the stage as one or other other: either you hate political correctness and (illegal) foreigners, or you don't care about Americans. She would have to appease those who are looking for guidance while not demonizing her huge Hispanic/minority base. I wouldn't call this group dumb either, at least not in the whole, but they do seem lost, and Trump is the first person in a while to really shepard them together. They can be persuaded, but not if they feel like they can't trust Clinton.

I don't think Clinton needs them to win, and will likely just double down on the base she already has. But that middle group are the people I'm primarily talking about as being persuaded by his tone and veracity. They just want to feel heard, and Trump is relatable. They're an interesting but scary block to me.
 
Trump already told me he is going to have more jobs for Blacks than they ever did under Obama.

He even brought up that video of all those people losing their jobs at that air condition manufacturing plant.

Granted everything he says is basically underpant Gnomes.
 
I don't think this article has been posted in this thread yet: http://static.currentaffairs.org/20...s-a-trump-nomination-means-a-trump-presidency

I know a lot of people disagree with the premise, so let's just skip to some of the tactics Trump can use against Hillary and how they might be effective.

This campaigning style makes Hillary Clinton Donald Trump’s dream opponent. She gives him an endless amount to work with. The emails, Benghazi, Whitewater, Iraq, the Lewinsky scandal, Chinagate, Travelgate, the missing law firm records, Jeffrey Epstein, Kissinger, Marc Rich, Haiti, Clinton Foundation tax errors, Clinton Foundation conflicts of interest, “We were broke when we left the White House,” Goldman Sachs… There is enough material in Hillary Clinton’s background for Donald Trump to run with six times over.

The defense offered by Clinton supporters is that none of these issues actually amount to anything once you look at them carefully. But this is completely irrelevant; all that matters is the fodder they would provide for the Trump machine. Who is going to be looking carefully? In the time you spend trying to clear up the basic facts of Whitewater, Trump will have made five more allegations.
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It’s easy to see that Trump has every single advantage. Because the Republican primary will be over, he can come at her from both right and left as he pleases. As the candidate who thundered against the Iraq War at the Republican debate, he can taunt Clinton over her support for it. He will paint her as a member of the corrupt political establishment, and will even offer proof: “Well, I know you can buy politicians, because I bought Senator Clinton. I gave her money, she came to my wedding.” He can make it appear that Hillary Clinton can be bought, that he can’t, and that he is in charge. It’s also hard to defend against, because it appears to be partly true. Any denial looks like a lie, thus making Hillary’s situation look even worse. And then, when she stumbles, he will mock her as incompetent.

Charges of misogyny against Trump won’t work. He is going to fill the press with the rape and harassment allegations against Bill Clinton and Hillary’s role in discrediting the victims (something that made even Lena Dunham deeply queasy.) He can always remind people that Hillary Clinton referred to Monica Lewinsky as a “narcissistic loony toon.” Furthermore, since Trump is not an anti-Planned Parenthood zealot (being the only one willing to stick up for women’s health in a room full of Republicans), it will be hard for Clinton to paint him as the usual anti-feminist right-winger.
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Trump will capitalize on his reputation as a truth-teller, and be vicious about both Clinton’s sudden changes of position (e.g. the switch on gay marriage, plus the affected economic populism of her run against Sanders) and her perceived dishonesty. One can already imagine the monologue:

“She lies so much. Everything she says is a lie. I’ve never seen someone who lies so much in my life. Let me tell you three lies she’s told. She made up a story about how she was ducking sniper fire! There was no sniper fire. She made it up! How do you forget a thing like that? She said she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary, the guy who climbed Mount Everest. He hadn’t even climbed it when she was born! Total lie! She lied about the emails, of course, as we all know, and is probably going to be indicted. You know she said there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq! It was a lie! Thousands of American soldiers are dead because of her. Not only does she lie, her lies kill people. That’s four lies, I said I’d give you three. You can’t even count them. You want to go on PolitiFact, see how many lies she has? It takes you an hour to read them all! In fact, they ask her, she doesn’t even say she hasn’t lied. They asked her straight up, she says she usually tries to tell the truth! Ooooh, she tries! Come on! This is a person, every single word out of her mouth is a lie. Nobody trusts her. Check the polls, nobody trusts her. Yuge liar.”
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There are a ton of embedded links in the article, so I recommend actually clicking through, but this gist of it is this: Trump has plenty of things to attack Hillary with, and those attacks will be effective because they won't be carefully examined by the general electorate.
 
I had a dream a few nights ago where I showed up to vote, only to be met by a bunch of gun-toting thugs threatening to shoot me and anyone else who wasn't there to vote for Trump. Even if that happened in real life at some polling places, I still would say Trump has no shot to win anything but the nomination.
 
Brainfreeze said:
The middle group is the group that Clinton should be looking at. They feel like they fell through the cracks of current political discourse. Lower income, lower educated whites who don't feel like either party pays attention to them: they're essentially the former-middle class that fell out that Bernie often talks about. If Clinton can assure them that she has plans for these things without falling back on racism and a tough-guy attitude, she wins no problem. But that's difficult, because Trump has essentially set the stage as one or other other: either you hate political correctness and (illegal) foreigners, or you don't care about Americans. She would have to appease those who are looking for guidance while not demonizing her huge Hispanic/minority base. I wouldn't call this group dumb either, at least not in the whole, but they do seem lost, and Trump is the first person in a while to really shepard them together. They can be persuaded, but not if they feel like they can't trust Clinton.

I don't think Clinton needs them to win, and will likely just double down on the base she already has. But that middle group are the people I'm primarily talking about as being persuaded by his tone and veracity. They just want to feel heard, and Trump is relatable. They're an interesting but scary block to me.
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I can see Trump expertly using that group expertly against Clinton though.

Between her flip flopping support of the TPP and the sins of her husband with NAFTA, he has some very powerful ammo to keep that fallen middle class electorate on his side.
 
I said this in the Trump has a lead in 10 of 14 states and I'll reiterate it here. Trump is anti-establishment and Hillary is about as establishment as it gets. If you think Trump can't do to Hillary what he did to Jeb! then you're not paying attention. He is using Obama's "Change" playbook and ramping it up to 11.

Trump can absolutely win the GE. People should not be thinking it's a cake walk.
 
J-Rod said:
In hindsight, this topic is pretty entertaining. Granted, I would've said no too, but now it seems the nom is quite likely.

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=1098059
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I been pointing out Trump as a black swan for quite awhile. His marketing and pr have been strong for months now yet folks wanted ignore what was pretty much happening right in front of their eyes.

Right now I say were at around a 65% maybe a little more chance of Trump taking this whole thing. Soon it will be his to lose basically. I get that he might not have the minority vote, etc. but I think hes going to swing enough people and bring out more voters to cover those demographics. Not by much but by enough to win it.

I also want to comment on the claim that all these folks supporting Trump are racist. While I'm sure there are racist supporters of Trump, many of the avg joe types dont filter what Trump says as racist.

Understand that the idea of screening for potential terrorists or trying to enforce the law on immigrants who are here illegally is not the same as saying " we want all Mexicans deported" and "all Muslims are terrorists". You do realize a person can see a difference between legal immigrants and illegal ones? Or that some Muslims maybe terrorists or sympathizers? (This is coming from someone who is not white and half my family is Muslim)

I understand the view above could be viewed as narrow but it is a real view that does not automatically equate one as a racist. Yes it can set dangerous precedence, I get that, but again people who dont have a problem with those ideas or support them are not filtering those ideas as racist (which one could argue on either side of that debate). More importantly, there are lots of people who DONT filter what Trump has said as racist. Thats whats been ignored these past months.

Trump is playing on fear and anger and pointing the cause at weakness in the establishment. In the establishments ability to do anything to solve those and multiple problems for a variety of reasons (being bought, not having the right people for the job, etc.)

People have been wanting change for awhile. I've mentioned this before, lots of folks bet on Obama for that and feel he ended up being another politician. This is why we have this strong appeal in anti establishment and non politicians. Trump is re-framing and re-positioning Obama's change campaign. Same message with a different tune.

Edit: Gaf seems to finally be coming around to Trump's potential.
 
I was just comparing the 2012 Nevada Republican caucus result to the 2016 result, and it's interesting that Rubio and Cruz turned out roughly the same number of votes as Romney did to win in that year. I think what's being lost here is that they are both relatively strong primary candidates by historic standards, and Donald Trump is just that much stronger. His non-traditional voters are turning out in huge numbers. I have been a Trump pessimist for month, but I'm actually somewhat sold on his general election chances for the first time.

Code: 
2012

Mitt Romney	16,486
Newt Gingrich	6,956
Ron Paul	6,175
Rick Santorum	3,277

Code: 
2016

Donald Trump 34,351 
Marco Rubio 17,940
Ted Cruz 16,079
Ben Carson 3,619
John Kasich 2,709

//random unoriginal commentary
 
Calamari41 said:
If you take the 2012 map and Trump flips Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania (reasonable in the case of OH and FL, only under the right conditions in the case of PA), then he takes it. It doesn't really matter if Latino turnout in California or Colorado or New Mexico breaks records to vote against him if he can get blue collar whites in Ohio and Pennsylvania to vote for him.
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This.

Piggus said:
People keep saying this but they never explain how.
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Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida.

If he holds the states Romney got and wins those three, he's at 279 EV. Do you really think it's impossible for trump to win Pennsylvania? Ohio? Florida???
 
People seem to forget how much Clinton is despised by the republican voters. Donald possibly winning is the same reason Sanders is still around... Anti-establishment voters that are willing to give extreme candidates a look. This election cycle just shows how much people dislike the establishment.
 
Flying Toaster said:
People seem to forget how much Clinton is despised by the republican voters.
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Obama was downright vilified by many Republicans in 2012, and hey.

Besides, Trump is the last person standing in the GOP race you don't think visceral dislike of him won't drive Democratic voters to the polls as well?

Flying Toaster said:
Donald possibly winning is the same reason Sanders is still around... Anti-establishment voters that are willing to give extreme candidates a look. This election cycle just shows how much people dislike the establishment.
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I think the antiestablishment movement is much more pronounced on the GOP side. From John McCain's unconvincing "maverick" posturing, to the Tea Party wave in 2012, to grumblings over Romney in 2012. This is something that's been brewing for the last eight years in the GOP side.

Bernie has momentum, but I'm not feeling the antiestablishment wave as strongly on the Democratic aisle.
 
In the GE Trump will be the sane one. More and more people will start to like him, it's already been happening. This place used to be 99% anti Trump and now it's maybe 80-85% (total guess but you can spot the change if you've been reading posts here for a while).

I bet by the time this election is over there will be a lot more converts here and across the Country. I thought he would last about a month and fade away, I was wrong and I'm not sad about it.
 
In no universe is Trump "the sane one" when Hillary goddamn Clinton is running.

You think he'll just magically stop talking about his asinine wall when he gets nominated? Those that nominated him certainly aren't going to just stop talking about it.
 
I think Trump is a formidable populist candidate, but I also think he plays exactly into the Electoral College demographic shifts that have made getting to 270 such a difficult challenge for Republicans.
 
Sean*O said:
In the GE Trump will be the sane one. More and more people will start to like him, it's already been happening. This place used to be 99% anti Trump and now it's maybe 80-85% (total guess but you can spot the change if you've been reading posts here for a while).

I bet by the time this election is over there will be a lot more converts here and across the Country. I thought he would last about a month and fade away, I was wrong and I'm not sad about it.
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Going to need you to actually back this up.
 
I'll vote for whoever wins the Dem nod, but neither of these candidates are really what I would consider electrifying.
3rdman said:
Presidential approval ratings have nothing to do with it. They were openly called murderers, liar, and thieves...Believe me..."polarizing" is the nicest description of what the Republicans at the time thought of her and Bill.
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I don't hold much stock in the opinions of crazy people.
 
Don't be fooled by Hillary stans on Gaf. Trump has a real big chance of winning. He'll win florida and Ohio.

When he'll change his rhetoric in the next few months and the attack ads on Hillary will start, you'll see how strong of a candidate he is. He's almost the perfect storm, like obama in 08'.

He'll run his campaign exclusively as an anti-establishement candidate and Hillary embodies the establishment. People always want " change ". They don't care who brings it. No one ever won an election by promising to keep the status quo.
 
Mimosa97 said:
Don't be fooled by Hillary stans on Gaf. Trump has a real big chance of winning. He'll win florida and Ohio.

When he'll change his rhetoric in the next few months and the attack ads on Hillary will start, you'll see how strong of a candidate he is. He's almost the perfect storm, like obama in 08'.

He'll run his campaign exclusively as an anti-establishement candidate and Hillary embodies establishment. People always want " change ". They don't care who brings it. No one ever won an election by promising to keep the status quo.
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Unfortunately for Trump, he has to convince minorities to vote for him to win.

So how is he going to convince minorities to vote for him after all the disastrous things he's said over the last year?
 
Yep.

I didn't at first, but between racists and bigots, trolls, low information voters and people wowed by the celebrity factor, I absolutely believe that Donald Trump has a shot at being President now.

I'd like to say that he'd get obliterated by the Democratic nominee, but I can't. I don't know that for sure anymore.
 
Mimosa97 said:
Don't be fooled by Hillary stans on Gaf. Trump has a real big chance of winning. He'll win florida and Ohio.

When he'll change his rhetoric in the next few months and the attack ads on Hillary will start, you'll see how strong of a candidate he is. He's almost the perfect storm, like obama in 08'.

He'll run his campaign exclusively as an anti-establishement candidate and Hillary embodies the establishment. People always want " change ". They don't care who brings it. No one ever won an election by promising to keep the status quo.
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What about George HW Bush?
 
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