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The South Carolina Primary & Nevada Caucuses |Feb 20, 23, 27| Continuing The Calm
- Thread starter NeoXChaos
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Manmademan
Member
honestly the gap between them is so small I'm not sure the "second/third" distinction is useful. they're both still in it and gain the same amount of delegates from the "win."
The narrative tonight is going to be all Trump though, as reality sinks in for the GOP.
shadowsdarknes
Member
Cruz has never particularly had a very uplifting message.
Restoring the country to a government of ideological purity is not useful. Liberals can't stand him and his message only seeks to "bring the fight" to the Democrats. That's not useful. People are sick of partisan politics and Cruz is the king of them.
He has no uplifting message to the everyday American. Just to those who hate Obama and already drink the kool aid.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
Trump at a rally in las vegas a couple of days ago:
What the hell is a caucus? No one even know what it means.
Forget the word caucus, just go out and vote, OK?
I dont want to turn on the television and see Donald Trump has the biggest crowds but his people are too damn lazy.
Wins with record margin.
It's gonna be Trump vs Hillary for sure
What the hell is a caucus? No one even know what it means.
Forget the word caucus, just go out and vote, OK?
I dont want to turn on the television and see Donald Trump has the biggest crowds but his people are too damn lazy.
Wins with record margin.
It's gonna be Trump vs Hillary for sure
I just saw how more people voted for Trump in Nevada, just Trump, than the amount that voted for everyone totaled up in 2012. That's insane, and really gives a good example of how this year is much more different, and how good of a shot he actually will have, in the general election.
Trump's persona is radioactive outside of his corner of the GOP primary electorate.
I have to admit, Trump is a terrible person and would be a terrible president, but I'm almost compelled to admire the way he has made the entire GOP dance to his tune, through sheer force of personality.
I have to admit, Trump is a terrible person and would be a terrible president, but I'm almost compelled to admire the way he has made the entire GOP dance to his tune, through sheer force of personality.
Elections are always different after a 8 year incumbent leaves office. It was like that in 2008 with record turnouts. The only difference is President Bush had a approval rating around 25% during the 2008 elections while President Obama is hovering around 49% right now.
Exactly. Cruz and Rubio just have checkmarks next to conservative talking points. They don't inspire, either as individuals or in their vision.
This is where Trump's charisma shines. Rubio would have less than half the support he currently has if he wasn't as "handsome". Sad.
Hasphat'sAnts
Member
Latino isn't just a stand-in for "Mexican" or "Mexican American" you know.
This is true.
Though I imagine in the Western/Southwestern states they would make up a vast majority of the Latino vote.
Live Free or Die
Banned
Trump winning baby! That what he'll do is win.
cpp_is_king
Member
Isn't it only against their interests if they're here illegally, in which case they can't vote anyway?
Orbis Tabula
Member
Not necessarily. Some people could have family members here illegally, despite being legal citizens themselves.
hodayathink
Member
I think he may be more referring to the candidates than the voters with that comment. While Cruz and Rubio are Latino, they're both Cubans, and just because Cubans and Mexicans are both considered Latino doesn't mean that they get along with each other on a grand scale.
It's also against their interests financially since Republican economic strategy always harms everyone but the 1%.
Great write up on Trump - http://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...ll-contests-may-work-to-donald-trumps-benefit
If he starts winning in the winner takes all states (where he is polling well) it really is game over.
If he starts winning in the winner takes all states (where he is polling well) it really is game over.
my name is ed
Banned
Hmm aren't Cubans the only Latino group to vote Republican more often than Democrat?
cpp_is_king
Member
I disagree, Trump is talking about bringing more jobs back to America and lowering taxed on everyone including poor and middle class. We can argue about whether that helps as much as the democrats, but i don't see any direct financial harm in the platform he's running on.
Besides, 1% benefitting the most doesn't mean the other 99% are harmed (although I don't believe trump is running on a platform that benefits 1% the most anyway). I agree that some Republicans' platforms *do* harm middle and lower class people while helping the upper echelons, but I think Trump's is much better than other Republicans' plans.
exmachina64
Banned
The president doesn't create jobs; in cooperation with Congress, he attempts to create economic conditions favorable for job creation.
Trump's stated policies won't create jobs or make companies in-source.
For reference, here are some of his policies:
1. Bring China to the bargaining table by immediately declaring it a currency mainpulator.
2. Force China to uphold intellectual property laws.
3. Put an end to China's illegal export subsidies and lax labor and environmental standards.
4. Mandate a 15% tax for outsourcing jobs.
5. Place a 45% tariff on Chinese exports to the United states.
6. Rejects the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
7. Impose a 35% import tax on Mexican goods.
8. Impose a 20% tax on all imported goods.
Source.
In practice, all these actions will do are increase barriers to trade and raise the cost of goods in the United States. Will Trump's Republican Congress pass a raise in the minimum wage to counter this? In my opinion, these policies encourage autarky. While this might be popular with low-skill, low-wage and industrial workers, these policies actually hurt the overall economy and large companies.
I know there's a strong anti-corporate sentiment on GAF, but the companies that have employed tens of thousands of workers in the post-war economy are export-driven. Now you may say, "Fuck Ford/Apple/Microsoft/Google/IBM/Boeing/Airbus/GlaxoSmithKline/Carrier/etc.!"; however, these companies and suppliers, employees, and consumers are all adversely affected by the policies Trump has outlined.
We joke on GAF, but these policies actually would lead to higher unemployment and inflation. Trump's policies may be populist, but populism isn't necessarily good for the economy.
Macho Madness
Member
It is 7 to 7.
Expect a projection right at 7.
Expect a projection right at 7.
Macho Madness
Member
We may get some exit polling before then. Hard numbers at 7.
Battersea Power Station
Member
I wouldn't broadcast that here. GAF is firmly Bernie territory. Post it on Reddit instead -- that bunch of HillaryGals.
If Bernie wins South Carolina I will eat my hat.
Ouch. That top one.
If he loses by less than 20 I'll eat mine. They'll be calling this election right after the polls close.
Definitely an outlier, but this is going to be a +25 point blowout anyway.
krackerjack
Member
Hillary is about to use her level one limit break tonight. Level 4 will be Tuesday.
Omnislash will be March 15th.
titiklabingapat
Member
I expect Hillary's number to be on the higher end. Undecided broke for Hillary in Nevada too.
Agent_Carnage
Member
Tonight is the beginning of the end of Sanders Campaign. As hes going to lose it on Super Tuesday.
Soon its going to be mathematically impossible for him to catch up.
Soon its going to be mathematically impossible for him to catch up.
Black Republican
Member
if hillz doesnt pass atleast 15% margin today than uhohs.
Lets see how excited dems are today.
Lets see how excited dems are today.
It's a bit of the Shy Tory effect -- people tend to get VERY pragmatic right before they vote. Same reason why Trump doesn't do as well with late deciders.
7 EST
What constitutes performing well?
Everyone is expecting a significant trouncing, but anything that comes close to her lead (sub 25%) is pretty good imo.
What does a long way mean?
Battersea Power Station
Member
Uhh, 25% is not coming close to her lead, but I agree with you in sentiment. I'd say if Bernie can keep it under a 20% difference, he gets a media boost.
Grover Cleveland
Member
I'm guessing they mean give him enough momentum and positive vibes with the media and his supporters to where that he can say that the race isn't simply delaying the inevitable.
Otherwise, the Democratic nominee is decided by March 15th.
So a 60-37 loss would be a "good performance" for Sanders? That seems like an awfully low bar to set. I guess it'd be better than what the polls are predicting but at some point he obviously needs to start winning rather than just performing better than expected.
Are we talking a Bahamut or Magus Sisters style trouncing?
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