gutter_trash
Banned
Bernie's also other problem is that later States the are more favorable to him in late March and April arrive at the same time as Spring Break when his demo of Young White College kids are out partying or flying South to party
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The South Carolina Primary & Nevada Caucuses |Feb 20, 23, 27| Continuing The Calm
- Thread starter NeoXChaos
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If the win is as big as her polls suggest, yes. It does. It means that Hillary's gigantic leads in Super Tuesday polls are legitimate and that will net her enough delegates that it will be impossible for Bernie to recover.
The same thing happened in 08. Hillary was only behind by like 100 delegates after Super Tuesday, but it's a margin that will be impossible to narrow.
plagiarize
Banned
You don't want to fall far behind early on. It deflates enthusiasm for your campaign. Look at how Obama snowballed eight years ago. Sanders need to get some upsets early on in states he'd focused his campaign, to turn the tide his way. Momentum doesn't look to be going his way.
Being favored in so many states in the back stretch right now doesn't really help.
Agent_Carnage
Member
Can we dispel this fiction that Bernie Sanders can win after getting smacked after Super Tuesday.
Show me a path to nomination after Super Tuesday.
Sanders chances according to 538.com. He'll win Vermont and might have a shoot at MA or OK. Blowout is putting it kindly.
Arkansas:4%
Georgia: 1%
Tennessee: 4%
Texas: 1%
Virginia: 1%
Michigan: 5%
Florida: 1%
Illinois: 1%
North Carolina: 7%
Ohio: 11%
Massachusetts: 37%
Oklahoma: 41%
Vermont 99%
Show me a nomination path that can survive Hillary winning SC, Texas, Georgia, VA and NY by 20 points or more.
That's why I'm hoping the percentages are closer than expected.
I know this, but can someone explain to me like I'm five why 100 is the magic number that prevents you from catching back up in the Dem Primary?
WaffleTaco
Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
Pragmatic realism.
This is what people have been saying for months and it holds true here.
You can explain how the primaries work all you want. But until Sanders is mathematically eliminated, you're always going to have some contingent of his hardcore followers who just cover their ears and repeat the mantra of "There's still a lot that can happen! There's 40-45 states left!"
I made the mistake of linking to some Super Tuesday polls on Facebook for a lady that doubted me. Her response was basically, "Yes, but have you seen the crowds Sanders draws? There are states in the Northeast and the west that love him. I'd like to see the demographics of these polls of yours." Okay, my PPP polls are bullshit but it's totally reasonable for you to predict victory based on crowd size at a political rally.
Tesseract
Banned
User 463088
Banned
There's no real rhyme or reason for why it's 100. It's just because everything is proportional, the chances of coming back from that big of a hole is just not likely. It's even less likely because Bernie is already 400+ super delegates in the hole.
There's just no where for him to make up numbers He had to win and win and win. A loss in the first 3 out of 4 was not good enough, especially when his only victory came from New Hampshire.
100 Delegates behind is being behind as if someone took all of Texas. One of the largest states. Generally there aren't enough states after Super Tuesday to run up the score in order to combat that deficit. It would mean blowing out your competition in 2-3 smaller states out right and talking almost all of the delegates, and that doesn't happen.
It's not comparable. You only have 2 candidates in this race and the races aren't even competitive past Iowa. in 2008 you still had John Edwards who won almost 20% in SC adding voters
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Bernie pls don't lose by 30 points. PLEASE!
Hillary gets indicted
that's diamond joe's path though
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Maybe that's why Sanders isn't winning?
Rather, that until Hillary actually gets the nomination.
"Hilary has 60% of all the delegates, but you never know what might happen! She might be convicted and jailed over that e-mail scandal by the time the convention rolls around..."
This is essentially the opposite of what happened to Hillary in 2008. Then, she beat Obama by small margins in primary states, whereas he blew her out in enough caucus states to pull ahead. If she starts blowing Sanders out in primary states, it's over because they offer way more delegates overall.
Ziltoidia 9
Member
Really tired about hearing Rubio.Trump. Watch them call it at 6:01 central then go back to trump trump trump.
Theoretical delegate acquisitions aside, if it gets to a point where it's near 0%, then I'll concede my opinions that Bernie could still get the nom. But from my perspective, I just don't see it.
Allow me to explain the current scenario Bernie and Bernie supporters are in at this moment with a metaphor.
Hang on, let me get my magnifying glass.
There should be a sketch with political stuff described w/ inane sports commentators- "Hillary just seems to want it more!"
What delegate rich state can Bernie clobber in after Tuesday that would allow him to climb out of the potentially 200-400 delegate hole he's going to be in after Super Tuesday?
YoYo Switch
Banned
My Bernie brothers join hands with me as we witness the downfall of our idol
It'll be ok in the end. We will survive. If we do it together
It'll be ok in the end. We will survive. If we do it together
I'm not going to theorize what he could win, I'd rather play with actual numbers. So I'm waiting until Tuesday to see what happens.
Okay, but if you're going to say something is "laughable", you're going to have to engage when people tell you why you're wrong.
shinra-bansho
Member
It's probably warranted though.
I can't remember which Nate it was or maybe Harry Enten, but he noted Sanders could conceivably get all of Vermont's delegates because of thresholds. So there's that at least.
I'm going to pour one out for him and voting third party.
"Anything can happen!"
"It's politics, you can never know for sure..."
Or to directly quote the lady who I made the mistake of talking to on Facebook:
"That's only IF she wins, and that's a big IF. So far all the big leads she's had have evaporated."
YoYo Switch
Banned
The best way you can honor Bernie is by voting for Hillary in the GE. Please
It's what we all should do in the face of defeat. It's what I will do.
Are you with me my brothers! Our failure cans still be a victory. For a slightly better America!
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Grover Cleveland
Member
You don't know dude, maybe she's privy to some inside info that says Bern is on the comeback in South Cackalacky
Have not heard that in eons.
The drapes have been on order for months.
CNN will find some banal way to stretch it out
What state are you in?
MARGINS SO THIN WOLF CAN SHAVE WITH THEM!
Regardless of what happens, I did my part and voted for Bernie here in Arizona. Life will go on. Hillary will be a great president.
The reason why it's "laughable" is because the amount of smug confidence going around is pretty toxic to conversation.
Look, I get it, Hillary is going to win tonight. But exactly how big is the question on a lot of people's minds.
To outright declare the end of someone's candidacy and in such a way that almost seems to try to get people to stop talking about it isn't cool. We have a lot of supporters on both sides, and we all want the same thing, right? A Democrat to keep the White House. I'd figure we would want to be more sympathetic to those other's candidate who might have a less of a chance winning and be inclusive in wanting them consider switching support when their time is right.
And my time will be when I think Bernie has zero chance. But only when I think he does.
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