Predict the Biggest Box Office Bomb of 2016

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DJKhaled said:
Goddamn these posts are awkward now.
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I was using previous box office data to make a prediction. I concede it was wrong but at the end of the day no one saw Deadpool pulling in the numbers it did.

Between the incredible performance of Deadpool and The Force Awakens at the box office fanboys with no knowledge of the film industry who just pull random numbers out of their ass are getting the chance to throw a huge amount of shade at people.

What's the saying, "Even a broken watch keeps the right time twice a day"?
 
Aw damnit, "The Great Wall" got pushed to 2017. There goes my horse in this race.

I guess my money will now be on "Independence Day 2." I think not even nostalgia will be able to save the movie from itself, a bloated CGI mess full of 2D characters blowing the shit out of some aliens.

Then again, Transformers 4 managed to grass 1.5 billion despite how awful it was, so who knows?
 
torre_avenue said:
I guess my money will now be on "Independence Day 2." I think not even nostalgia will be able to save the movie from itself, a bloated CGI mess full of 2D characters blowing the shit out of some aliens.
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dunno if it'll bomb but it's definitely not going to be the draw it was 20 years ago... that kind of movie is a dime a dozen now
 
I don't really think there was ever a period where a Warcraft movie like this would have been a huge hit. Even at the height of WoW. Game popularity has not shown that it ever really converts to boxoffice success.
 
DonMigs85 said:
I still believe the new Alice movie will bomb or at best break even. Hopefully BFG doesn't bomb
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I wouldn't like to guess on the Alice movie, as I thought the first one looked horrible (especially the visual style) but it did really really well at the box office.

What's 'BFG'? Surely they're not making another film based on the Roald Dahl book?!

EDIT - oh good grief they are. What the fuck. Where's that Jim Carrey retching gif?!
 
I'm doubtful Warcraft turns into anything big. Maybe I'll eat crow on that one and it will be well reviewed and people will show up, I just haven't personally see much interest at all. But no way it under performs like Gods of Egypt is.

I think certain films just can't bomb. Like even if Batman vs Superman gets horrendous reviews, people will be there at midnight and all weekend, no matter what.

Something big will get left behind this summer though. I'm betting on one of the live action family films. Tomorrowland 2.0
 
torre_avenue said:
Aw damnit, "The Great Wall" got pushed to 2017. There goes my horse in this race.

I guess my money will now be on "Independence Day 2." I think not even nostalgia will be able to save the movie from itself, a bloated CGI mess full of 2D characters blowing the shit out of some aliens.

Then again, Transformers 4 managed to grass 1.5 billion despite how awful it was, so who knows?
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Check out the Fuller house thread if you don't think nostalgia can safe a bad product. The show is horrible got bad reviews and a bunch of people, myself included, watched all 13 episodes already out of nostalgia for a show I didn't even really care about when it was on.
 
God's is up there, bit I feel like we can do better, maybe huntsman, maybe Tarzan, maybe some dreck that will run far under the radar, this game ain't over yet.
 
Son Of D said:
The first one made $396m on a $170m budget. So with Hollywood logic there's still some money to squeeze out of the franchise.
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Also you can cross-sell the two films as a package, that's really helpful for TV and VOD packaging. Retailers love that shit.
 
There's a difference between something being a box office disappointment and being a bomb though, there's zero chance BvS is going to be a bomb.
 
Triggerhappytel said:
I wouldn't like to guess on the Alice movie, as I thought the first one looked horrible (especially the visual style) but it did really really well at the box office.

What's 'BFG'? Surely they're not making another film based on the Roald Dahl book?!

EDIT - oh good grief they are. What the fuck. Where's that Jim Carrey retching gif?!
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It's at least Spielberg-directed, though I'm not certain how meaningful that is nowadays.
 
duckroll said:
I don't really think there was ever a period where a Warcraft movie like this would have been a huge hit. Even at the height of WoW. Game popularity has not shown that it ever really converts to boxoffice success.
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For years, fans have said "their cutscenes are so good, I wish they would make a movie like that." It's a CGI-heavy flick that has nothing to do with the games that actually made the property a household name, being made long after the subject materials has ceased to be relevant even to gamers, and practically non-existent to the public at large.

Is that describing "Warcraft" or "Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within"?
It's both! Warcraft won't do QUITE that badly though.

I'd also put money on Gods of Egypt and Tarzan, those both have "Who asked for this?" written all over them. The Jungle Book, I at least get, since turning rides / old movies has been moderately successful for Disney for a while (Pirates of the Caribbean, 101 Dalmatians, etc.) and even when they're critically panned and completely awful they still make bank (The first Alice in Wonderland made a billion dollars... yes, with a B). The films may be rancid, but they'll keep making them as long as people go to see them.
 
It's Gods if Egypt, isn't it? I can't think of another film that's coming out this year which appeals to and seems to have been madw for absolutely no one.

I don't think Warcraft will bomb. NA and Global audiences seem to enjoy orc v. humie fantasy-war films.
 
bonesmccoy said:
It's Gods if Egypt, isn't it? I can't think of another film that's coming out this year which appeals to and seems to have been madw for absolutely no one.

I don't think Warcraft will bomb. NA and Global audiences seem to enjoy orc v. humie fantasy-war films.
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Warcraft is a wildcard in my eyes. On one hand I think The Hobbit may have soured audiences on the genre (all three were globally successful, but after the fact most people seem to hate at least the last two), at least to some extent, and I think many people will see it as a knock-off of LotR rather than something that stands on its own. I also think its possible at least some people may be turned off by the Warcraft name, but "geek" is apparently "cool" now, so who the hell knows.

On the other hand, this definitely seems like it could be one of those movies that comes out no where and surprises everyone.
 
bonesmccoy said:
It's Gods if Egypt, isn't it? I can't think of another film that's coming out this year which appeals to and seems to have been madw for absolutely no one.

I don't think Warcraft will bomb. NA and Global audiences seem to enjoy orc v. humie fantasy-war films.
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Like I said before, Gods of Egypt is the easy one. It's this year's Jupiter Ascending. The early in the year expensive turd which is mostly disowned by the studio itself before it even opens.

But like last year, there will probably be bigger blockbusters which perform really poorly later in the year as well. Like Tomorrowland and Pan. This year there's Tarzan and there might be some other blockbuster that totally crashes near release.
 
Dash_Riprock said:
This has flop written all over it. Maybe if it had come out a few years ago when WoW wasn't bleeding subscribers.

warcraft-poster-travis-fimmel-anduin-lothar-.jpeg
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This poster is hilarious, it's like they already know how the movie is going to turn out!
 
Warcraft needs more sex to draw in that Game of Thrones crowd.

I don't think it will bomb.

My pick would be Doctor Strange. I also don't believe Captain America: Civil War will be as huge as everyone is expecting. i think you will see a decline in box office sales of non-aware super hero films. The last avengers film did not do as well as the previous one.

I think BvS will do fine. I think Ninja Turtles will do surprisingly well. I can't believe someone is making a Ben-Hur remake.
 
duckroll said:
Like I said before, Gods of Egypt is the easy one. It's this year's Jupiter Ascending. The early in the year expensive turd which is mostly disowned by the studio itself before it even opens.

But like last year, there will probably be bigger blockbusters which perform really poorly later in the year as well. Like Tomorrowland and Pan. This year there's Tarzan and there might be some other blockbuster that totally crashes near release.
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$14M opening on a $140M budget is going to be hard to top I think. Maybe overseas will soften the blow allowing a more expensive film to take the title as you said.

Also, Jupiter was a bigger bomb than Tomorrowland. Budgets and totals relative to those budgets were similar, but Tomorrowland was 45% domestic and less than 10% China, while Jupiter was 25% domestic and close to 25% China.

Pan did end up winning that contest though.
 
When my wife saw the Warcraft trailer in the theaters she was certain that it was a "fake trailer" that they run before the movies where someone's cellphone rings and it turns out to be a PSA to be quiet during the show.
 
My prediction is none of the Well known superhero movies will bomb but we are going to see the box office of those films noticeably down but not enough to stop making them. The one exception is Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Out of the Shadows. The first movie barely broke even and it seems to me that this wave of Turtle Fandom is about over.

Independence Day Resurgence I think will not do well. It's been too long and the years haven't been kind. There is zero buzz and no Will Smith is going to be a problem.

The Magnificent Seven could bomb.Westerns are box office poison and the release date has been all over 3 calendars.

Measley said:
I got a really bad feeling about Star Trek Beyond. :(
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My bad feeling is it should bomb but won't. :/
 
I certainly hope nobody thinks that Tim Burton's Alice in Wonderland only made tons of money because of the novelty of 3D, because many conversations about Avatar have proven that that simply isn't possible.
 
Baron_Calamity said:
My prediction is none of the Well known superhero movies will bomb but we are going to see the box office of those films noticeably down but not enough to stop making them. The one exception is Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Out of the Shadows. The first movie barely broke even and it seems to me that this wave of Turtle Fandom is about over.
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I really disagree with pretty much everything in this post, unless "noticeably down" means not passing the gross of The Avengers (or some other ridiculous metric). Civil War will make more than Winter Soldier. BvS will make more than Man of Steel. Probably significantly more in both cases.

I don't know how X-Men Apocalypse will do. My feeling is that it will end up with a similar gross to DOFP. Maybe a bit more overseas and a bit less domestic, but it could be up in both regions.

Doctor Strange is a bit of a question mark. Like Ant-Man though, I would imagine that it does well enough to justify its existence.

As for the TMNT, the first film made almost $500M on a $125M budget. I have no idea where you got the impression that it barely broke even. It looks like the sequel got a significant budget boost though, so if it drops from the first film's gross, the sequel could end up in barely break even range.
 
I think the next TMNT will do even better since it's even closer to the 80s cartoon. Gonna draw in a lot more nostalgic fans. It's nice to see the Turtles finally achieve big box office success.
 
There is no way Warcraft is going to bomb. Worst case scenario it'll do the numbers Pacific Rim did. And the people thinking BvS will bomb are either trolling or downright delusional. Now that the horrendous Egyptian Clash of the Titans movie has bombed dramatically, I predict the next big one will be Tarzan. I am still in shock over it's budget...
 
Spikematic said:
There is no way Warcraft is going to bomb. Worst case scenario it'll do the numbers Pacific Rim did. And the people thinking BvS will bomb are either trolling or downright delusional. Now that the horrendous Egyptian Clash of the Titans movie has bombed dramatically, I predict the next big one will be Tarzan. I am still in shock over it's budget...
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180 million. Wow. Whelp, CGI animals and jungle are pricy.

Jungle Book gonna kill though. I feel it.
 
Baron_Calamity said:
Independence Day Resurgence I think will not do well. It's been too long and the years haven't been kind. There is zero buzz and no Will Smith is going to be a problem.
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I don't know what parallel universe you are from but there was quite a bit of buzz for that movie after every trailer they released.
 
Tarzan. I think most of the comic book tent poles and nostalgia driven films will do just fine this year. I think Ghostbusters looks pretty awful, but you know it's going to make bank.
 
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