Wkd BO 03•25-27•16 - Batman vs Superman (or Grindr hookup gone sideways) bests Bunny

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$2B isn't happening. Star Wars' overseas gross was the fourth highest of all time behind Cameron's big 2 and Furious 7, and the film still needed $870M of its $935M domestic gross to hit that mark.

I'm pretty doubtful that Civil War will even do half of what Star Wars did domestically. Where is it going to make up that $400-500M overseas? Definitely not Europe + Australia + Japan.
 
If something doesn't make $520M DOM this year, it'll be the first year in history the highest gross in a single territory didn't come from the US. Not saying that won't happen, but it'd be shocking just how quickly that moment occurred.

For the record, I think Rogue One will go over that mark, but of course we'll see.
 
Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
If something doesn't make $520M DOM this year, it'll be the first year in history the highest gross in a single territory didn't come from the US. Not saying that won't happen, but it'd be shocking just how quickly that moment occurred.

For the record, I think Rogue One will go over that mark, but of course we'll see.
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That is a very cool record I think.
 
Colonel Nasty said:
I think people need to cool their jets on CW. I think it's ceiling is AoU numbers. It would have to be a huge critical hit to get to that number. I can't imagine there were THAT many SpiderMan fans not already watching the Marvel stuff.
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Civil War hitting AoU numbers is my ceiling as well. I don't think it's very likely and I can't fathom it beating AoU by a significant margin if at all.
 
Colonel Nasty said:
I think people need to cool their jets on CW. I think it's ceiling is AoU numbers. It would have to be a huge critical hit to get to that number. I can't imagine there were THAT many SpiderMan fans not already watching the Marvel stuff.
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I feel the same. AoU was a huge monster hit-I'd be surprised if it got near those numbers.
 
Rogue One will be an interesting run to watch. On one hand you have Star Wars and some level of Darth Vader. On the other hand you have Gareth Edwards and spin off status.
 
Sulik2 said:
Civil War will join the two billion club I think. It won't break the domestic record, but the Marvel movies are way bigger overseas then Star Wars. Its an Avengers movie with Spiderman that looks to have the potential to be the best film ever made my Marvel. If its that good be prepared for an insane gross.

Ouch at that B v S number. I'll do my part and see it again this weekend. I really like it, like a lot.
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[citation needed]

star%20wars%20foreign.PNG
 
Rogue One will be fine, every Star Wars film until the Han Solo prequel will be fine. That'll be the first one to really test the brand.
 
People are underestimating just how difficult $2 billion is now. Only 3 films ever have done it, 2 were Cameron films(and one of those needed a re-release), and the other was a Star Wars sequel that almost made $1 billion just in NA. And Furious 7's overseas total is probably close to the ceiling for international numbers right now, so you need Avatar-like numbers in the US at minimum if you're aiming for $2 billion.
 
Civil War is not doing $2B ever.

Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Maybe it's time to absorb Mexico too if China is gonna start beating us at these milestones. :P
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That would help. Mexico loves Avengers/Iron Man. Avengers did 60 million, AoU and IM3 ~50 million each. 18 million OW average for the 3 of them.

Star Wars and TWS did about 25 million each for comparison.
 
PhoncipleBone said:
Minions was a spin off and was the most successful of that brand.
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Ya, but the Minions are the only reason people watch Despicable Me. Rogue One is a spin off prequel about a group of unfamiliar characters and maybe Darth Vader with Wonder Woman levels of screen time.

I expect it to do very well. But is very well $1B or $1.5B? $400M domestic or $600M domestic?

Who knows.
 
I feel like $1 billion is probably the floor for Rogue 1. Even the PT films would do that in today's numbers, and R1 is riding off the good will of TFA + Vader.
 
Civil War topping Avengers would be a helluva trick. Civil War beating Force Awakens would be David Blane pulling a live Houdinni out of his ass, who then transforms into Gandalf and summons Merlin from the sky by Eagle courier.

That is, a street trick performing a miracle doing a magic trick summoning sorcery via a real-life deus ex machina.
 
I don't think comparing it with the PT is a great idea because it's not about quality or word of mouth here. It's about supply and demand. A new numbered Star Wars film is always significant, especially when there is a huge gap between a connected set of chapters. Even if it is poop, it is that generation's trilogy.

Rogue One is something else, it's a spinoff that is releasing in a year between two numbered Star Wars films. I think it'll probably do well because there's still a lot of demand for just "more Star Wars", but it definitely won't have the sort of demand that Episode VIII will have for example. Especially in the US.
 
That's a pretty efficient 15 seconds.

Wonder Woman!
Some Bruce Wayne!
A bunch of tweets (because the fans matter!)
A single critic blurb!
.5 seconds of Batman
.5 seconds of Superman.
LOGOS!
 
Bobby Roberts said:
That's a pretty efficient 15 seconds.

Wonder Woman!
Some Bruce Wayne!
A bunch of tweets (because the fans matter!)
A single critic blurb!
.5 seconds of Batman
.5 seconds of Superman.
LOGOS!
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Yeah, it was a jumbled mess of cool imagery and bad ideas (Twitter?!).

Hmm. That's actually a pretty good ad for the movie.
 
duckroll said:
I don't think comparing it with the PT is a great idea because it's not about quality or word of mouth here. It's about supply and demand. A new numbered Star Wars film is always significant, especially when there is a huge gap between a connected set of chapters. Even if it is poop, it is that generation's trilogy.

Rogue One is something else, it's a spinoff that is releasing in a year between two numbered Star Wars films. I think it'll probably do well because there's still a lot of demand for just "more Star Wars", but it definitely won't have the sort of demand that Episode VIII will have for example. Especially in the US.
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Oh, it won't come close to the numbered episodes, I just think it will easily make at least $1 billion because it's Star Wars and people have a lot of love for the brand right now. And that's just if the movie is bad. If it's good it will probably make considerably more than that.
 
Branduil said:
Oh, it won't come close to the numbered episodes, I just think it will easily make at least $1 billion because it's Star Wars and people have a lot of love for the brand right now. And that's just if the movie is bad. If it's good it will probably make considerably more than that.
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China could be big for it, especially with Donnie Yen there, so that's a good possibility, but I don't think 1 billion is automatically a given. The domestic take is going to be important too, because a good chunk of Star Wars will be from there.
 
Just came home from Zootopia. Really liked and will post impressions in the official thread later. It's probably my favorite non pixar Disney animated movie since Alladin or Lion King.

kswiston said:
Depending on how Civil War, X-Men Apocalpyse, and Doc Strange (to a lesser extent) do, superhero films hitting $4B worldwide this year is a pretty plausible scenario.

Assuming:

$775M for Deadpool (Holdovers + Japan in June should get it close even if Japan treats it like they do most superhero films)
$950M for BvS
$700M for X-men Apocalypse
$450M for Doc Strange

Civil war would have to do $1.125B, which is close to $100M less than Iron Man 3.
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I'm not an expert in predicting box office numbers, nor do I know anything about Doctor Strange, but considering that every post Avengers Marvel movie has made more than 500M at the box office, couldn't you be low balling Doc Strange?

StaticJam said:
Rogue One will be fine, every Star Wars film until the Han Solo prequel will be fine. That'll be the first one to really test the brand.
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I'm a star wars newbie, but why would the Han Solo movie be the first to test the brand?
 
Sulik2 said:
Civil War will join the two billion club I think. It won't break the domestic record, but the Marvel movies are way bigger overseas then Star Wars. Its an Avengers movie with Spiderman that looks to have the potential to be the best film ever made my Marvel. If its that good be prepared for an insane gross.

Ouch at that B v S number. I'll do my part and see it again this weekend. I really like it, like a lot.
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Yeah Marvel movies are way bigger overseas. Other than the fact they aren't.
 
duckroll said:
China could be big for it, especially with Donnie Yen there, so that's a good possibility, but I don't think 1 billion is automatically a given. The domestic take is going to be important too, because a good chunk of Star Wars will be from there.
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Well, I mean, even the Hobbit sequels made 0.95 billion. And Batman v Superman is probably going to at least get close despite getting worse reviews than Space Chimps. I think Rogue 1 has a higher floor than those films.
 
AnotherDayAnotherDollar said:
Just came home from Zootopia. Really liked and will post impressions in the official thread later. It's probably my favorite non pixar Disney animated movie since Alladin or Lion King.



I'm not an expert in predicting box office numbers, nor do I know anything about Doctor Strange, but considering that every post Avengers Marvel movie has made more than 500M at the box office, couldn't you be low balling Doc Strange?



I'm a star wars newbie, but why would the Han Solo movie be the first to test the brand?
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I'm assuming his projections on that and X-Men are worst case scenario, ie. they get BvS level reviews and have no legs. Both of those films could do quite a bit better than those numbers, but things have to go right for that to happen.
 
Sulik2 said:
Civil War will join the two billion club I think. It won't break the domestic record, but the Marvel movies are way bigger overseas then Star Wars. Its an Avengers movie with Spiderman that looks to have the potential to be the best film ever made my Marvel. If its that good be prepared for an insane gross.

Ouch at that B v S number. I'll do my part and see it again this weekend. I really like it, like a lot.
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Say CW does Avengers money on the domestic side (620M). You're then looking at CW doing 40% more business than AoU OS in order to hit 2B WW.

That would be an even larger increase than the domestic jump.
 
Branduil said:
Looking at BOM, there are now 24 films which have broken $1 billion. 20 of those were in the last decade and 5 were last year.
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all but 2 were from the last decade. TPM and Jurassic Park cheated their way past $1B with 3D re-releases. Dead Man's Chest was third to $1B. TDK was fourth.
 
Rth: "everyone got wrong today it seems BvS looking like only going to do about 15, Zoo 5.5"

 
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