April 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
I'm going to bed, otherwise I'd photoshop your avatar next to Jackie looking so ruffled
Let's be serius please, last month Wii U got two games which sold very good, nothing happened, this month will have a game which is gonna flop.
From now Wii U is only going to decline as rock.
The only Nintendo console with support actually is the 3DS, which is doing way better than expect recently, and should have a great holidays thanks the pricedrop + Pokèmon.
Outside that, now is all NX.
Welfare
Member
Really good deal on Amazon for Xbox One. Every bundle sans the Halo 5 bundle gets a $50 gift card, FH2, and the freaking Halo 5 Limited edition.
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B01F46SZHE/34a6-20
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B01F46SZHE/34a6-20
ethomaz
Banned
Limited edition not that limited to end being used in combo deals.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Every April does this. People have extra money in February and March due to tax returns, but April people are hit up for cash and need to worry about studying for school, applying for jobs, ect.
Very interesting thanks, but me thinks people are still aiming low with uncharted 4 around the corner
slavesnyder
Member
Uncharted will give a bump in may, not in april.
ConfusedGamer
Member
[PS4] 205K
[XB1] 185K
[3DS] 115K
[WIU] 40K
[XB1] 185K
[3DS] 115K
[WIU] 40K
Preorders!
freefornow
Gold Member
R&C was 38000 wk1 sales (and 19000 in 2nd week). Is that good? Genuinely asking.
I believe those sales were higher than QB on UK charts? Would QB be stronger in US?
And answer is genuinely good. R&C had only 2 days of tracking in launch week in UK.
lol
slavesnyder
Member
Preorders don't count, or?
Instead, every uncharted bundle bought now will count in may when it's delivere.
Yes, i know that. But i was referring that preorders affecting game position on hourly, weekly and monthly charts. So, yes, Uncharted still has a big bump on charts way before release.
Chobel
Member
Yeah, the offcial price cut is happening soon.
slavesnyder
Member
doublepost
slavesnyder
Member
They shoud add Tomb Raider for free as surrogat. In the end it was bought for this purpose.
ethomaz
Banned
Yeap it is really good for UK and R&C... this is the fastest selling R&C for it first 2 weeks... over 3x more than previous fastest seller in the franchise.
Nobody expected or predicted these good sales in UK.
Mister Megative
Banned
PS4] 215K
[XB1] 160K
[3DS] 105K
[WIU] 30K
[XB1] 160K
[3DS] 105K
[WIU] 30K
freefornow
Gold Member
[PS4] 222K
[XB1] 193K
[3DS] 102K
[WIU] 41K
[XB1] 193K
[3DS] 102K
[WIU] 41K
At this point, if there is a NPD which Xbox one will most likely win in 2016, it's definitive October.
3 weeks of Gears of War 4 and 2 weeks of Battlefield 1 with the XBOX marketing.
If XB1 won't win October (unless we will see something like last year like a PS4 pricedrop)... that's not good.
3 weeks of Gears of War 4 and 2 weeks of Battlefield 1 with the XBOX marketing.
If XB1 won't win October (unless we will see something like last year like a PS4 pricedrop)... that's not good.
If their flagship, main entry in Halo could not scrape them a win in October 2015, then unfortunately, Gears wont either - especially since their seems to be low key hype considering that horrible E3 showing.
It'll probably end up being solid, but I can't see Microsoft winning any months in 2016, and beyond.
XB1 won October 2015, by almost 30K.
Don't worry I'm not. I seriously just need to stop posting in anything except sales threads. Some of the comments about UWP in the Quantum Break threads were just truly asinine and I got a little too heated calling out some of the BS (like UWP is bringing backwards compatibility to PC LOL)
While I appreciate the effort these are nowhere near crazy enough. Step it up Rymuth!
I am not amused...
Now for a breakdown of last month's bold predictions
Wrong. MKXL didnt even chart! Wow. Honestly surprised by the result on this one. I figured it for one of the least risky predictions of the month. I am curious as to how close it was to charting but as far as I can tell we didnt get any figures for it.
Not sure about this one. Did we get any confirmation on the sales of the Division bundle and whether this was true or not? I didn't see any during my scan of the results thread but maybe I missed it?
Edit: As per Welfare this one is wrong. PS4 still best selling even w/ bundles included.
Part 1 true. Part 2 wrong. While GTAV did rank in at #4 for the month PS4 maintained its streak as lead sales platform for the game despite MS's free game promotion which seems pretty bad. You'd figure attaching the game for free to consoles sold would give them the edge on the game.
True! UFC ranked in at #5 with Black Ops 3 ranking in at 9 which is actually much lower than I thought it would be ranking. But seeing as 85% of all PS4 sales in the past few months have been CoD bundles (which is crazy) it makes sense as to why the game would be lower than I initially thought it would be.
True. Not only did it rank and sell more than SFV's debut but it was perilously close to outselling SFV's LTD sales.... T_T
So I stand at #2 on my NPD predictions for the month (damn you ethomaz it was my turn!) and 2.5 out of
Now for my April NPD predictions:
[XB1] 160k
[PS4] 187k
[WIU] 39k
[3DS] 109k
And now its time for
RexNovis' Bold Predictions
April 2016 Edition
1. Quantum Break will chart but will rank lower than GTAV with sales less than 200k for its debut. It will rank at 7 or below and will also be outsold by Bravely Second.
2. Dark Souls 3 will debut at number 1 with a sales split of 3.5:1 or greater in favor of PS4.
3. Twilight Princess, Star Fox and Pokken will not chart in the top 10.
4. Ratchet and Clank will debut in the top 4 with more than 250k sales making it the best debut for the series since Up Your Arsenal.
5. MLB the Show will rank higher/sell more than The Division and the latter will rank in at 5 or below. (I think bad post release WOM is going to absolutely tank Division sales.)
6. Bravely Second for 3DS will outsell Star Fox for WiiU by a margin of at least 2.5:1. Both will be outsold by GTAV and the latter will be outsold by Minecraft.
April 2016 Edition
1. Quantum Break will chart but will rank lower than GTAV with sales less than 200k for its debut. It will rank at 7 or below and will also be outsold by Bravely Second.
2. Dark Souls 3 will debut at number 1 with a sales split of 3.5:1 or greater in favor of PS4.
3. Twilight Princess, Star Fox and Pokken will not chart in the top 10.
4. Ratchet and Clank will debut in the top 4 with more than 250k sales making it the best debut for the series since Up Your Arsenal.
5. MLB the Show will rank higher/sell more than The Division and the latter will rank in at 5 or below. (I think bad post release WOM is going to absolutely tank Division sales.)
6. Bravely Second for 3DS will outsell Star Fox for WiiU by a margin of at least 2.5:1. Both will be outsold by GTAV and the latter will be outsold by Minecraft.
freefornow
Gold Member
Welfare
Member
That's not bold, nor is the split.
Starting to play it safe????
Well I thought the split was pretty bold haha
Oh ok. Cheers! So PS4 still best selling with bundles included.
PSVR is in October.
Maybe there will be some GeOW 4/Battlefield 1 bundle. Anyway, PS4 will have PSVR in October.
Pretty expensive accessory. Can't see it selling to many people who don't already have a PS4 by that point until one month after that.
There will more than likely be some type of special Gears bundle so that will sell to both current Xbox One owners and people who don't have the system. There's no point in buying another PS4 for PSVR obviously (well, unless it's the Neo).
I think October is a toss up as of right now.
Hey, man, great to have you back. Honestly, I hope you can refrain from posting offensively even if some posts are beyond ridiculous. Perhaps sometimes a sarcastic reply is better. Either way, I hope you don't get yourself in trouble again!
By October the gap in their strongest territory (that they had a gap in the double digits last gen) will be in the 2 million. Not sure how winning a month by 30-50k means the outlook for Xbox is good.
Well, I DID say they were not crazy----but if you insist. Here's one - Quantum Break won't chartWhile I appreciate the effort these are nowhere near crazy enough. Step it up Rymuth!
I don't believe that, but you did ask for something
Welcome back, you've been missed.
Weren't you saying the same thing last year about October for Xbox One with Halo 5 - the margin was quite small wasn't it?
It won't happen - PSVR will sell very healthily to the existing install base, I agree there, but until it reaches a more mass market price combined with a cheaper PS4 (talking 199) it wont get a massive stranglehold on casuals.
Xbox One will not take October 2016 with a Gears game - the reaction to the reveal at E3 15 was very muted/underwhelming, its a lesser IP than Halo in terms of sales potential, and Playstation, as has been said time and time again, do not stand still and remain static.
They took the entire Holiday season of 2015, and by took, I mean sold an obscene amount of hardware/software. There will obviously be a Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare customized PS4 along with whatever marketing deals they have in place for Holiday 2016.
And will probably churn out another Star Wars related console to bank on Rogue One momentum. I just can't see Microsoft taking any months going forward unless the Playstation division literally implodes from the cash piling up.
Yeah -- Last year I said I could see things going either way for October (2015) which was accurate since it was a close month (with the Xbox One winning). I currently feel the same way for this October. Not sure what you are trying to get at.
Not sure what E3 2015 has to do with how people will feel about the game in October 2016 (i.e.: 16 months later). If anything, it would make more sense to take a more recent stat like how the recent Gears of War 4 commercial did very well on YouTube/social media and base that on how the game will do.
I'm not sure what you are trying to state. I would also be surprised if the Xbox One beat the PS4 in November and December after what we saw in 2015 but I've never said that. I simply said I feel October 2016 is a toss up.
There will more than likely be a Gears of War 4 bundle that will sell to both current and (during the time) new Xbox One owners; PS VR is going to be bought by many current PS4 owners and this group isn't going to buy another regular PS4 for the PSVR. The PSVR is also an expensive acessory. Buying it alongside the PS4 will be a lot of money and I can't see a ton of people doing that in October. November/Demceber though? Yeah, sure... but not October. This is why I feel that things can go either way that month. Again, we are mainly talking about console sales in October here and not Gears of War 4's success vs. PSVR's success.
Well, I DID say they were not crazy----but if you insist. Here's one - Quantum Break won't chart
I don't believe that, but you did ask for something
Welcome back, you've been missed.
Now that's what I call a BOLD prediction! I think it'll all boils down to how appealing the 2 for 1 deal that gave you the PC release for preordering digital on XB1 was for the consumer base. It has a chance of really skewing the sales towards digital more so than they would have been otherwise. I still think it'll chart but it's by no means a fire fine conclusion with the promotion and a White SKU bundle on the table.
Hey, man, great to have you back. Honestly, I hope you can refrain from posting offensively even if some posts are beyond ridiculous. Perhaps sometimes a sarcastic reply is better. Either way, I hope you don't get yourself in trouble again!
It's my sarcasm that seems to get me in trouble the most! Some people just have no sense of humor.
sarcasm is hard in text format
Honestly, April is always a tough month for me. It's the anniversary of a tragedy that resulted in the death of someone I loved dearly so emotions are already high. Totally my own fault though. Should've just avoided commenting altogether and stepped away for a while.
But that's enough of that. It's old news. I'm back hopefully for good this time. Let's get on with the business of predictions and meaningful sales discussion.
No man, I actually agree with everything you said bar the toss up - I just don't see it happening. I would like to see Xbox win a month or two - they are putting in the work and deserve to see success.
Plus it keeps Playstation on their feet.
In regards to Gears, I was very underwhelmed by that E3 showing and felt it lost momentum, but a really great stage demo this year can really change things - it looks very solid from what I saw of multiplayer, and story sounds interesting.
Anything can happen, and the intro of mid gen refreshes for Playstation and Xbox (?) this year could really throw things in terms of predictions.
I honestly hope Phil Spencer pushes for a real successor to Xbox 360 next gen because I think he has the right ideas, attitude, and deserves to make his own mark on Xbox, and not do damage control on Mattricks awful, awful leadership.
Industry really needs Playstation and Xbox healthy, because Nintendo, in my eyes, are just a lost cause at this stage - their E3 plans are beyond embarrassing and pitiful. I have great respect for the Xbox team for changing things around so rapidly and genuinely trying to compete to the best of their ability in the face of a very dominant PS4.
Nintendo took a similar drop in America from NES to SNES thanks to SEGA greatly stepping their game up. There's a decent number of similarities to this current gen in America and the 16 bit gen in America outside of that too... Two relevant core gaming brands, and no huge advantage between the two.
A 2 million gap in the third year of the gen is far better than what we've seen between first and second place in America during many other gens (last gen is a good example). And to tie it back to the 16 bit gen, it's the smallest gap for 1st and 2nd in America since that period. I do agree that it definitely shows what the Xbox brand could have done in the territory if it weren't for so many screw ups in 2013 though.
_____________
Ah, okay. I see. I still think things can go either way. Just depends on how many people will buy a PS4 in October for multiplats and PSVR. A lot will do it for the former but I don't know about the latter since (again) that's a lot of money to spend on gaming during a month that's right before the Holiday shopping season.
He's right. As of now it's a toss up. It could go either way. We don't know what sort of deals or promotions to expect from either party at this point so dismissing the fact that he thinks they have a chance of coming out ahead is kinda ridiculous. Gears is still a big franchise albeit not as big as it once was surely. Even still it'll all boil down to the promotions available from both parties that month and we really have no way of predicting what those will be in October. The smart thing to do is to do exactly as BGamer has said and declare it as a possible win for either party depending on promotional information that we don't currently have.
I think he's also right about PSVR selling to existing userbase with little to no effect on console sales for the month. We've already seen that oculus has been met with lower sales than most predicted so I'm not even sold in the idea that VR is going to sell gangbusters regardless. I just don't think the vast majority of people want to wear head mounted displays in order to play games.
... Is this a stealth "competition is good" post?
What's far more important for a healthy industry is Nintendo not releasing a lame duck system that basically nobody wants to buy. The impact of their utter failure this gen has had a MUCH larger effect than an existing userbase migrating from one leading platform to another. If you want to talk about what's good for the industry you should be talking about the NX and praying to whatever deity you choose that it sees a modicum of success since Nintendo appeals to a different (and much needed) market than either other platform the loss of which this get has basically crippled the industry's potential market penetration.