The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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Elaugaufein

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Regardless of what McCully says, New Zealand isn't going to enter formal negotiations with the UK until it formally leaves the EU. And New Zealand has other priorities for trade liberalisation.

And again, I'm not sure how New Zealand negotiators employed by the New Zealand government negotiate a free trade agreement for the UK with New Zealand, without large conflicts of interest.
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Actually Australia and New Zealand have both been making noise about negotiating an FTA with the UK as a pair, quickly. There's no way it could be official until you left, but there's no reason drafting / proposals couldn't happen so that there was a starting point ready.

Its not going to come anywhere close to what you lost from the EU though.

Also Australia, at least, has been looking at an agreement with the EU , so they aren't likely to agree to anything that would make that harder either, which does make unofficial pre-leave negotian more interesting.
 
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GamerMax73

Member
ghst said:
if steps had been made towards the sort of semi federalised UK, with visible regional centers of devolved authority (even if it's mostly for show) that was meekly groped at in the wake of the scottish referendum, i bet you wouldn't have seem the north turn out in numbers to protest vote against the establishment.
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Although any talk of federalisation was a very long way off, read never, but wasn't one of the few good steps in the right direction, read no the most ideal of solutions, just that though - devolved regional governments. City mayors styled on the London model. Northern powerhouse, etc.

That said just about every district council in my region has just voted against having a regional East Anglian Mayor. So maybe further steps at regional devolution would have changed nothing when the people came out to vote against the establishment?
 
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Peter Ian Staker

Member
mrklaw said:
Is green the sound waves of our pain?
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ulSUm7X.png
 
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kmag

Member
Geminosity said:
bingo :3 This only applies to EU though. We should be able to start making deals with others during this time.
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You can't make unilateral trade deals under the treaty of Rome (Article 207 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU), and that applies throughout the art 50 process. The EU and the UK have to abide by all treaty provisions until a withdrawal is complete or until two years have elapsed.

As per Article 50.3
3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
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jufonuk

jufonuk

not tag worthy
Meadows said:
Carney - banks stress tested to handle crisis 2x worse than 2008
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Can he negotiate Brexit please

Why not actually get some business men and women to negotiate our terms . Alan Sugar. Richard Branson

Give sugar and Branson business and redevelopement negotiator minister positions

David Beckham sports

Hawking , Cox science and technology

Carney Banking .

Assemble team Brexit for great justice and freedoms . On a points based scale

For maximum greatness and minimal racism
 
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UpDownLeftRight

Banned
Turns out my GF can't apply for German citizenship. Given our situation I'm starting to consider life insurance. I actually can't think of any other backup plans. I'm guessing I can abandon any hope of this not going through at this point?
 
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CyclopsRock

Member
shinra-bansho said:
And again, I'm not sure how New Zealand negotiators employed by the New Zealand government negotiate a free trade agreement for the UK with New Zealand, without large conflicts of interest.
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I think the idea is that the ones we do have will negotiate with NZ and the loanees from NZ will work on other ones?
 
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kmag

Member
Meadows said:
FTSE up
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Investment management firm Hargreaves Landown has been analysing what's been going on with shares in London since last Thursday's Brexit vote.

It's calculated that about a third of FTSE 100 stocks have lost more than 10% of their value. About two thirds are in negative territory, and about one in seven have lost more than 20%.

On the other hand, about a third of FTSE 100 stocks have risen in price - though only a handful have risen by more than 10%.

"What these stocks lack in number and price movement however, they make up for in size, accounting as they do for around 60% of the FTSE 100 by market capitalisation. They include big hitters like Shell, BP, British American Tobacco, Diageo, AstraZeneca, and GlaxoSmithKline," says Hargreaves Lansdown.
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i.e the big multi's who are based here but whose operations are global are doing well, backed by the prospect of no interest rates and low bond yields, and shit sterling rates (means domestic investors have fuck all else they can invest in) and also backed by international investors using the low sterling value to get blue chip multis on the cheap.

A similar story is happening even in the FTSE250, where believe it or not there are still some companies whose UK presence is only a marginal part of their business.
 
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Condom

Member
UpDownLeftRight said:
Turns out my GF can't apply for German citizenship. Given our situation I'm starting to consider life insurance. I actually can't think of any other backup plans. I'm guessing I can abandon any hope of this not going through at this point?
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Life insurance? Why? Are you German and she British?
 
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Napoleonthechimp

Member
cormack12 said:
So basically now we're in a position of:

- Being offered to start a New Zealand trade agreement and a loan of their advisors;
- Typically these types of agreements take years to agree on

Meanwhile (latest info):

- May has committed to Article 50 before Christmas;
- As soon as this is invoked we drop straight onto the WTO trade regulations and tariffs (to be confirmed);
- We have two years from then, to negotiate any sort of EEA agreement with Europe;
- If two years expire we have to begin again regarding EEA negotiations or basically accept WTO unless we reapply to be a member state?


Man, people can still not want this surely? Now, after almost a week and being in receipt of further arguments and evidence, there's still no sensible people thinking this is - on the balance of things - a good idea? Right?

Also re: Sturgeon, I don't think people 'like' her per se. But I think a lot of people respect her. There's only one reason why people like her go public in situations like this. Political gain or frustration - and given Whitehall went into hiding for days, I think we can assume she was trying to bait someone, anyone out for a comment.

Also, as an England 'Remain' voter, I think it's disgusting if Scotland get dragged out of the EU with us. Because of some archaic sovereign link. We are trying to leave the EU for 'economic' reasons while maintaining a 'close relationship'. Scotland should be afforded the same courtesy in that instance. A whole country should not be made to suffer (when the electorate majority voted 'Remain'), because another country next to it has made a grave error of judgement (thanks to their referendum majority). Sturgeon has my respect and I hope she manages to barter a better deal for the Scots, and not get forced to wade through the shit with us.
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I don't think it's archaic... Unless you think all political unions centuries old are archaic.
 
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GamerMax73

Member
Hasney said:
No, there's a slight disconnect here. It's not that we can't discuss trade deals while Article 50 is being worked through, it's that according to the Trade Commissioner, they just won't be.
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Oh god, I'm turning UKIP...

It feels like people nobody has heard of from deep within the EU machine are coming out of the woodwork to say something controversial just to get their name reported. Do these people not realise they are playing directly into the faceless bureaucrat image of the EU that nationalist parties like UKIP have been painting?

You want to say to this EU Trade Minister - "climb back in your box and well start negotiations with you when we're good and read". You start wanting to ask questions like - when is her term of office up?

And this is coming from someone that is ordinarily staunchly Pro-EU.
 
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heidern

Junior Member
cormack12 said:
BIG: so @MalmstromEU tells me EU/UK trade talks won't start until Art50 exit complete then UK will trade on WTO terms until a deal is done

So for two years, we remain as-is, then we go to WTO, and only then we can start negotiating our new deal?
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Not happening. Obviously this is what EU want. If article 50 is invoked then EU can just wait for 2 years and get their hands on much of the London financial sector for free. They get all the leverage in negotiations.

However if it isn't invoked the leverage is with the UK as they can wait it out. No article 50 means continuing uncertainty for the EU and having the UK with its veto bringing the EU project to a standstill.
 
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D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
imagine if Corbyn is still Labour leader and starts going after Blair for war crimes when the Chilcot Inquiry is published next week

this ride is just getting started!
 
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kmag

Member
GBP will be dropping like it's hot as Carney pretty much is saying interest rates at 0.25 or lower before the end of summer.

The FTSE will go up (as investors will have little else to invest in given the value of the pound, dire bond yields and almost zero interest rates), but ultimately the knife is still waiting to fall.
 
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GamerMax73

Member
shinra-bansho said:
So far as I'm aware, until such time as the UK completes negotiations with the EU or the two year period lapses, the UK is part of the EU even after triggering Article 50.
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Sure, I get that. But once article 50 is triggered it's supposed be final, no? That being the case surely it's in all parties best interest to start discussing what happens next as soon as possible rather than waiting to fall back on the worst possible option before opening up talks. Madness.
 
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