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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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oti

Banned
How so? Wouldn't having deals mostly hashed out with others before dealing with the EU better inform what we'd need from our dealings with them? :eek:

- Hey New Zeazys, whaddup. Let's make a deal.
- Cool.
- Cool.
- ...
- So how ya doing with all the big playas?
- The US loves us.
- Kay.
- ...
- Any deal yet?
- No, not yet, but we're working on that.
- ...
- Australia loves us too.
- So you have a deal with Australia?
- No.
- How about the EU? Do you have free movement? Access to the single market? Bank Passes?
- *throws arms in the air* We'll see.
- We'll see?
- Come on, don't be so European. We are like sailors. Adventures and so on. Do you want cake?
- Cake?
- France loves our cake. It's like the most popular cake in the City of Paris.
- ...
- ...
- What have you done?
 

cormack12

Gold Member
So basically now we're in a position of:

- Being offered to start a New Zealand trade agreement and a loan of their advisors;
- Typically these types of agreements take years to agree on

Meanwhile (latest info):

- May has committed to Article 50 before Christmas;
- As soon as this is invoked we drop straight onto the WTO trade regulations and tariffs (to be confirmed);
- We have two years from then, to negotiate any sort of EEA agreement with Europe;
- If two years expire we have to begin again regarding EEA negotiations or basically accept WTO unless we reapply to be a member state?


Man, people can still not want this surely? Now, after almost a week and being in receipt of further arguments and evidence, there's still no sensible people thinking this is - on the balance of things - a good idea? Right?

Also re: Sturgeon, I don't think people 'like' her per se. But I think a lot of people respect her. There's only one reason why people like her go public in situations like this. Political gain or frustration - and given Whitehall went into hiding for days, I think we can assume she was trying to bait someone, anyone out for a comment.

Also, as an England 'Remain' voter, I think it's disgusting if Scotland get dragged out of the EU with us. Because of some archaic sovereign link. We are trying to leave the EU for 'economic' reasons while maintaining a 'close relationship'. Scotland should be afforded the same courtesy in that instance. A whole country should not be made to suffer (when the electorate majority voted 'Remain'), because another country next to it has made a grave error of judgement (thanks to their referendum majority). Sturgeon has my respect and I hope she manages to barter a better deal for the Scots, and not get forced to wade through the shit with us.
 
but isn't an ideal even for the truest of scotsmen keeping the UK together and in the EU? we get to keep our frankenstein status where our financial clout gives us a deal that an independent scotland couldn't dream of, we get to keep our currency, you don't have to rely on the plummeting value of your oil reserves to keep you afloat.

should the sturg help to achieve this then i'm all for her, but an exit followed by a renegotiated scotland in the EU would have all the problems the UK's departure is currently facing and more.

As an outsider - wanna be Scot, Got to say I agree with this. Devomax along with the reverse Greenland+ federalised EU membership solution appears to be the best of all worlds for Scotland. The question is will Westminster devolve a lot more powers without independence, and will the EU allow a federalised Scotland whose still a constituent part of the UK to also be a EU member country?

If nothing else, we have interesting time ahead.
 

liquidtmd

Banned
Link to Carney / BoE press conference

latest
 

Sparse

Member
I literally said this to my gf last night. She stayed out of it so that all the shit would float past and she'd emerge clean.

It worked.
Yup, I've felt this about her. Thing is, it seems like hasn't been limited to just this, but most of her career. The expression, "nothing sticks", feels appropriate.
 

accel

Member
- Hey New Zeazys, whaddup. Let's make a deal.
- Cool.
- Cool.
- ...
- So how ya doing with all the big playas?
- The US loves us.
- Kay.
- ...
- Any deal yet?
- No, not yet, but we're working on that.
- ...
- Australia loves us too.
- So you have a deal with Australia?
- No.
- How about the EU? Do you have free movement? Access to the single market? Bank Passes?
- *throws arms in the air* We'll see.
- We'll see?
- Come on, don't be so European. We are like sailors. Adventures and so on. Do you want cake?
- Cake?
- France loves our cake. It's like the most popular cake in the City of Paris.
- ...
- ...
- What have you done?

I think 90% of topics in a deal between NZ and UK would not depend on EU in any way other than 'do you actually have authority to strike a deal on your own or should we go talk to EU?'.

Same for deals with others.
 

Stuart444

Member
You really think the EU is going let England even attempt to conquer Scotland, not a hope in hell, plus I'm pretty sure that pretty much every Scottish serviceman will not accept the order to invade their home country.

Plus there would be massive resistance from Scotland itself.

I was joking mostly :p.

Though I do feel that if a second ref failed, there won't be another one until after many of us are dead and a new new generation is on the field.
 
Meanwhile (latest info):

- May has committed to Article 50 before Christmas;
- As soon as this is invoked we drop straight onto the WTO trade regulations and tariffs (to be confirmed);
- We have two years from then, to negotiate any sort of EEA agreement with Europe;
- If two years expire we have to begin again regarding EEA negotiations or basically accept WTO unless we reapply to be a member state?

Nothing changes during the two year period of exiting the EU through Art. 50.
The UK will not be able to negotiate a new trade deal with Europe until the two year period is up and it exits the EU.
From that moment until the UK reaches a new trade agreement it will will be stuck trading under WTO regulations.
 
So basically now we're in a position of:

- Being offered to start a New Zealand trade agreement and a loan of their advisors;
- Typically these types of agreements take years to agree on

Meanwhile (latest info):

- May has committed to Article 50 before Christmas;
- As soon as this is invoked we drop straight onto the WTO trade regulations and tariffs (to be confirmed);
- We have two years from then, to negotiate any sort of EEA agreement with Europe;
- If two years expire we have to begin again regarding EEA negotiations or basically accept WTO unless we reapply to be a member state?


Man, people can still not want this surely? Now, after almost a week and being in receipt of further arguments and evidence, there's still no sensible people thinking this is - on the balance of things - a good idea? Right?

Also re: Sturgeon, I don't think people 'like' her per se. But I think a lot of people respect her. There's only one reason why people like her go public in situations like this. Political gain or frustration - and given Whitehall went into hiding for days, I think we can assume she was trying to bait someone, anyone out for a comment.

Also, as an England 'Remain' voter, I think it's disgusting if Scotland get dragged out of the EU with us. Because of some archaic sovereign link. We are trying to leave the EU for 'economic' reasons while maintaining a 'close relationship'. Scotland should be afforded the same courtesy in that instance. A whole country should not be made to suffer (when the electorate majority voted 'Remain'), because another country next to it has made a grave error of judgement (thanks to their referendum majority). Sturgeon has my respect and I hope she manages to barter a better deal for the Scots, and not get forced to wade through the shit with us.

Don't think you end on WTO terms until you reach an exit agreement/ your two years are up since you're still in until then. Its just that there's no new trade talks until after you're out, so once you're out its WTO until you negotiate a new agreement.
 

ghst

thanks for the laugh
As an outsider - wanna be Scot, Got to say I agree with this. Devomax along with the reverse Greenland+ federalised EU membership solution appears to be the best of all worlds for Scotland. The question is will Westminster devolve a lot more powers without independence, and will the EU allow a federalised Scotland whose still a constituent part of the UK to also be a EU member country?

If nothing else, we have interesting time ahead.

if steps had been made towards the sort of semi federalised UK, with visible regional centers of devolved authority (even if it's mostly for show) that was meekly groped at in the wake of the scottish referendum, i bet you wouldn't have seem the north turn out in numbers to protest vote against the establishment.
 
So you're proposing that NZ's interest in us is as a gateway into europe rather than anything else we might be able to offer?

- As soon as this is invoked we drop straight onto the WTO trade regulations and tariffs (to be confirmed)
I believe they said we'd drop into WTO when we exit, not when we invoke, so we should still have 2 years of being 'in' as far as the free market, trade and whatnot go.
 
What? Really?

So we have to invoke article 50, leave, then go and ask what deal we can get?

Fuck.

Yes and no. My understanding was that the trade deals are independent of article 50 - we just have to trigger article 50 before we can start separate trade negotiations.

As far as leaving the EU and article 50 is concerned, the progress of the trade negotiations, whether they are completed or not, are completely immaterial. If the article 50 process completes before trade negotiations are finalised then we drop down to the WTO trade rules until such time as the trade negotiations complete.

I really can't see us waiting to be completely out of the EU before anyone, even informally, gets around the table and starts discussing trade. That's the worst scenario for all parties.
 

oti

Banned
So you're proposing that NZ's interest in us is as a gateway into europe rather than anything else we might be able to offer?


I believe they said we'd drop into WTO when we exit, not when we invoke, so we should still have 2 years of being 'in' as far as the free market, trade and whatnot go.

I suggest that one's stand in the world is very important when it comes to negotiating trade deals.
 
But but ...



---

oh yeah, this is what Corbyn actually said:
kqvshDS.jpg


Boy, he hates those Jews, doesn't he?

Well according to politicshome...

"Sources close to Mr Corbyn later insisted he had been talking about "self-styled" Islamic countries like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, but admitted that by "organisations", the Labour leader was referring to IS as well as other terror groups like Hamas, Hezbollah and al-Qaeda."

So the actual cause of ire - that he's making a moral equivalence between the actions of Israel and those of IS, Hamas etc - remains. If that doesn't bother people then OK, but that basically is the gist of what he's being accused of.
 

Hasney

Member
Oh yeah, anyone got a link that Theresa May said Article 50 before Christmas? The live text updates I was reading said not until at least then, not by then.
 
Yes and no. My understanding was that the trade deals are independent of article 50 - we just have to trigger article 50 before we can start separate trade negotiations.

As far as leaving the EU and article 50 is concerned, the progress of the trade negotiations, whether they are completed or not, are completely immaterial. If the article 50 process completes before trade negotiations are finalised then we drop down to the WTO trade rules until such time as the trade negotiations complete.

I really can't see us waiting to be completely out of the EU before anyone, even informally, gets around the table and starts discussing trade. That's the worst scenario for all parties.

According to https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/748508166338535424

There will be no new trade negotiations until the exit is complete and the UK is out, not just the trigger, it needs to be out of the EU before new trade deals can be discussed. We'll have to see if that stance changes, but for now that's what'll be happening.
 
He isnt. It's very easy to paint someone as an anti Semite if they criticise Israel.


Oh i didn't mean it so much like that...i wrote my post reactionary after reading about the latest news but as someone else mentioned, it's quite easy to paint him with that brush if the people around him let him down.
 

Hasney

Member
Yes and no. My understanding was that the trade deals are independent of article 50 - we just have to trigger article 50 before we can start separate trade negotiations.

As far as leaving the EU and article 50 is concerned, the progress of the trade negotiations, whether they are completed or not, are completely immaterial. If the article 50 process completes before trade negotiations are finalised then we drop down to the WTO trade rules until such time as the trade negotiations complete.

I really can't see us waiting to be completely out of the EU before anyone, even informally, gets around the table and starts discussing trade. That's the worst scenario for all parties.

According to https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/748508166338535424

There will be no new trade negotiations until the exit is complete and the UK is out, not just the trigger, it needs to be out of the EU before new trade deals can be discussed.

No, there's a slight disconnect here. It's not that we can't discuss trade deals while Article 50 is being worked through, it's that according to the Trade Commissioner, they just won't be.
 

cormack12

Gold Member
Ah right, that makes sense. I read the tweet wrong.

Mark UrbanVerified account
‏@MarkUrban01
BIG: so @MalmstromEU tells me EU/UK trade talks won't start until Art50 exit complete then UK will trade on WTO terms until a deal is done


So for two years, we remain as-is, then we go to WTO, and only then we can start negotiating our new deal?
 

Mr. Sam

Member
Welp:


Cecilia Malmström (@MalmstromEU) is the EU Trade Commissioner in charge of EU Trade policy.

The article 50 period wouldn't be used to negotiate deals, just allow us to have the most orderly exit possible. Fortunately no PM would ever be stupid enough to actually invoke Article 50.

So we'd basically be on fire, negotiating for the EU to hand us a fire extinguisher?
 
Ah right, that makes sense. I read the tweet wrong.

Mark UrbanVerified account
‏@MarkUrban01
BIG: so @MalmstromEU tells me EU/UK trade talks won't start until Art50 exit complete then UK will trade on WTO terms until a deal is done


So for two years, we remain as-is, then we go to WTO, and only then we can start negotiating our new deal?
bingo :3 This only applies to EU though. We should be able to start making deals with others during this time.
 

accel

Member
Ah right, that makes sense. I read the tweet wrong.

Mark UrbanVerified account
‏@MarkUrban01
BIG: so @MalmstromEU tells me EU/UK trade talks won't start until Art50 exit complete then UK will trade on WTO terms until a deal is done


So for two years, we remain as-is, then we go to WTO, and only then we can start negotiating our new deal?

That's the starting negotiating position of the EU ('ah, you are going out? then we won't even talk with you about your future with us until you exit, get in line'). It's going to change.
 

accel

Member
And again, I'm not sure how New Zealand negotiators employed by the New Zealand government negotiate a free trade agreement for the UK with New Zealand, without large conflicts of interest.

NZ offers their negotiators for negotiating with others. Ie, with the EU.
 
"...That is the agenda for the next Prime Minister of this country.

While I must tell you, my friends, you who have waited faithfully for the punchline of this speech;

That having consulted colleagues, and in view of the circumstances in parliament, I have concluded that person cannot be me.

My role will be to give every possible support to the next conservative administration. To make sure that we properly fulfil the mandate of the people that was delivered at the referendum and to champion the agenda I believe in."

Is green the sound waves of our pain?

No, it's still porn.

It's the sound of our future getting fucked.
 

cormack12

Gold Member
And again, I'm not sure how New Zealand negotiators employed by the New Zealand government negotiate a free trade agreement for the UK with New Zealand, without large conflicts of interest.

That was my next thought, NZ will obviously want some sort of kickback or be in receipt of some form of benefit for this. Exclusivity on an export or something.
 
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