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Race tightens in projected U.S. Electoral College vote: Reuters/Ipsos

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I'm still 100% on a Clinton win. Once the debates roll around win or lose both bases are going to be pumped up and the "enthusiasm gap" will be gone. The only time I will worry is if Hillary lays a complete egg and doesn't fight back at Trump's bullshit at the debates.

Polls will be the polls and I will really only care about them after the debates are done with. I have faith in the Clinton campaign operation.
 
JHoNNy1OoO said:
I'm still 100% on a Clinton win. Once the debates roll around win or lose both bases are going to be pumped up and the "enthusiasm gap" will be gone. The only time I will worry is if Hillary lays a complete egg and doesn't fight back at Trump's bullshit at the debates.

Polls will be the polls and I will really only care about them after the debates are done with. I have faith in the Clinton campaign operation.
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I'm... Tenuously in the same place. I believe in the campaign team, but she's got a likability issue that is 20 years in the making. Hopefully she can overcome it.
 
Future said:
Glad to see this. Unfortunately it takes a disaster to get young democrats to do anything.

People said trump wouldn't get passed the primaries
People said trump would be replaced at the RNC
People said his campaign was in shambles
People say he can't get elected

There is a pattern here. And unfortunately the reality is without someone charismatic for the democrat cause, you will get an influx of young democrats thinking they are making statements about not voting for lesser evils and voting for 3rd parties that don't even have enough support to debate. Or over confident democrats that think the world isn't as bigoted as it really is. With age they will see what happened and real change can start to happen in about 20 years
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Bruh...it's basically an indisputable fact that his campaign was, and probably still, is in shambles, if it really had much of a structure to begin with. You do not overhaul your campaign management three separate times in a single run if your campaign is good.

And there is a pattern here, but one that you, yourself, overlook. People said he wouldn't get back the primaries, but those same people completely ignored the fact that he was always the favored candidate to win in the primaries, despite a few drops. People said he would be replaced at the RNC, but those people seemed to fail to understand that's only happened...like never, and that the logistics of replacing a candidate at that stage would be a nightmare (and no one probably realized just how hard Trump would tank about the DNC).

Now people are trying to show others the slim possibly that Trump has, why numbers are where they're at now based on polling data and past history, and it's mostly going ignored. Do you see the pattern?
 
Maxim726X said:
As a pundit, he's been bad. But if you believe in his algorithm, there is reason to be concerned.

At this time during the 2012 elections, Obama was at ~80% victory if I recall. Clinton is at 60%. This is not the same race.

According to him, his algorithm remains unchanged. So if it was great in 2008 and 2012, there is cause for concern.
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not at all.

August 18th, Obama was leading Romney 48.0 to 44.6 in the RCP aggregate.

By September 6th it was dead tied at 46-46.

What do you think happened between those two weeks?
 
Manmademan said:
not at all.

August 18th, Obama was leading Romney 48.0 to 44.6 in the RCP aggregate.

By September 6th it was dead tied at 46-46.

What do you think happened between those two weeks?
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The 2012 RNC was during the final week of August that year, so Romney's boost in the polls was caused by his convention bump. Obama had his convention the following week, and quickly regained his 4-point lead which he held until after the week after the first debate where he got annihilated.

Trump's RNC was a month and a half ago. Any bump he got from that has long since subsided.
 
Hm. Whelp.

I suppose somewhere there's someone in the Democratic party blaming Bernie Sanders for actually revealing true information about corruption Hillary's issues, and the broken corrupted structure of both the Democratic and Republican parties to the electorate, leaving them disengaged and despondent to most of the sell jobs the democrats need to claim comfortable victories.

I still think she will win, but its going to be very close indeed.
 
Xilo said:
Nothing changed to make Trump look better. The problem is that a lot of people will not vote for a candidate who has serious health issues (even if they only suspect she might have serious health issues). Clinton would have been wise to disclose her health issues months ago, before things got blown out of proportion with the 9/11 incident.
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What the hell is this...
 
When these polls change every week, are there people literally switching from Clinton to Trump and vice versa, or is it more likely they are switching from Trump/Clinton to the Johnson or Stein?
 
Inuhanyou said:
Hm. Whelp.

I suppose somewhere there's someone in the Democratic party blaming Bernie Sanders for actually revealing true information about corruption Hillary's issues, and the broken corrupted structure of both the Democratic and Republican parties to the electorate, leaving them disengaged and despondent to most of the sell jobs the democrats need to claim comfortable victories.

I still think she will win, but its going to be very close indeed.
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True information and Sanders supporters spreading Breitbart/Fox News propaganda is a real fine line. The latter is a display of ignorance or such blinding hatred that you don't give a damn who you're sourcing.

Maxim726X said:
As a pundit, he's been bad. But if you believe in his algorithm, there is reason to be concerned.

At this time during the 2012 elections, Obama was at ~80% victory if I recall. Clinton is at 60%. This is not the same race.

According to him, his algorithm remains unchanged. So if it was great in 2008 and 2012, there is cause for concern.
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What feeds the algorithm though. This year we've had so much low quality polling it's outrageous. Online self-select surveys, online closed panel surveys, English only landline polls, English only online polls, and so on. Live caller landline+cell polling that is available in both English/Spanish is virtually nonexistent.
 
She is just off the radar and sick. Things will change once she is back in full force. Polls are fickle snapshots.

Also, the "basket of deplorables" thing is a good move, imo. Not to mention 100% true. It's not likely to lose her many, if any liberal votes, and it emphasizes the schism within the Rebublican base by speaking directly to those in that camp who are disgusted by Trump's racist, xenophobic, ignorant approach. The only way that statement hurt her is in the fancies of right-wing pundits who will latch on to anything they can.

Don't get me wrong... I am concerned, but I think the polls will look quite different soon.
 
Manmademan said:
not at all.

August 18th, Obama was leading Romney 48.0 to 44.6 in the RCP aggregate.

By September 6th it was dead tied at 46-46.

What do you think happened between those two weeks?
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No... National polling was similar. But Silver had him at ~80%. It's not the same this time.
 
The only reason it wasn't tight before is because Trump kept saying stupid shit. This country is as divided as ever. It will always look close. Until we realize Romney led the polls after the first debate.
 
Media said:
The 'basket of deplorables' thing baffles me. People were so outraged over it when Trump can't go a single day without insulting a ton of people or individuals.
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I think the takeaway here is that Clinton did a blanket diss of a large portion of potential voters. That's not good when trying to change their minds.

Trump's pattern usually targets:

Political opponents that directly attack him (relatively small group who aren't going to vote for him anyway e.g. Lyin' Ted, Crooked HIllary, Little Marco, Pocahontas, etc)

The media (relatively small group, whom most voters think are not doing their job well, for whatever reason)

Illegal Immigrants (who can't vote anyway, and whose issue is not, strictly speaking a losing argument among a large portion of the voting public)
 
AngmarsKing701 said:
She should be focusing on what she's good at: policy.
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Voters don't care about policy by and large. Trump wins by leveraging emotion. Once Hillary started doing that, she could counter Trump's bullshit, but Trump is on the road to countering her counter. It's fascinating to watch.
 
Rentahamster said:
Voters don't care about policy by and large. Trump wins by leveraging emotion. Once Hillary started doing that, she could counter Trump's bullshit, but Trump is on the road to countering her counter. It's fascinating to watch.
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Trump wins by inciting angry white people who have been angry since they lost the ability to own slaves.

It'll be minorities that he loses to by over 80% whom he's stoked and insulted that will keep him out of the White House. There's a reason he had to acknowledge black people and this birther movement and why that's been a focus in the news media. There's just not a place electorally for someone that's pissed off so many groups in so little time.
 
Kolx said:
I just hope the debates show how much of an idiot he is so that he can lost support among independent.
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I think we're well past that point. If you didn't know that Trump is a balloon full of course hot air and nonsense by now then you never will. He is seemingly perfect at making all of his obvious shortcomings seem like benefits to the average voter who just wants a change from being told to vote for establishment choice A or establishment choice B. He's something different anyway.

I've been surprised at the few snippets I've seen just how abrupt and charm devoid Clinton has been when I've heard the sound bites from her speeches. She's not very endearing, comes across more like your stern grandmother that forces you to go to church on a Sunday when you don't want to (from personal experience lol).

Said it a while back but people are so blind, Trump has every chance of winning. At every step of the way his unique character has made him more and more popular amongst the common plebs. Just like eejits like Farage or Boris Johnson during the catastrophic Brexit campaign. Be prepared for President Trump. And god help us all.

And yeah I truly think Sanders would be faring far better than Clinton right now. He really appealed to the youth. A youth that won't vote for Trump, and largely aren't all that fussed about voting for Clinton either. Should they vote for Clinton? Probably yeah. The same crap is better than the fucking shitshow of god knows what a Trump presidency could bring. Will they vote Clinton, will they vote? I suspect it may be crucial.

If America votes Trump then, like Brexit, the people will have gotten what they deserved.
 
Liu Kang Baking A Pie said:
It's because the 24/7 news media dies if the race isn't close.

I wish more of GAF would stop paying attention to the media circus with all its strategic twists and clickbait, and instead focused more on straight up news rather than the newsmakers. They're taking the country for a ride every minute of every day.
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Yup. This is how Donald Trump became the nominee in the first place. Cable news turned presidential elections into a reality show, and a reality tv star became a presidential nominee.
 
Rentahamster said:
Agreed. I've been saying that since the primaries, but here we are.
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Sanders would be painted as a crazy commie. He didn't have enough of the African American vote in the primaries and so it would be interesting to see where the AA vote would be if it was Sanders vs. Trump.

As much as I think Hillary's toxicity is driving some independents to Trump, I just don't know whether Sanders would be any better a candidate.

I know my wife was both anti-Sanders and is anti-Trump. She'd have us moved to Canada already if the choice was between those two.

We can stomach Hillary. Barely. It'll be interesting to see whether she's the first president since the elder Bush to only get 4 years. That'll depend on whether the GOP doubles down on stupid again, or whether there's a candidate who can come across as conservative without also being a complete douchebag.
 
DavidDesu said:
I think we're well past that point. If you didn't know that Trump is a balloon full of course hot air and nonsense by now then you never will. He is seemingly perfect at making all of his obvious shortcomings seem like benefits to the average voter who just wants a change from being told to vote for establishment choice A or establishment choice B. He's something different anyway.

I've been surprised at the few snippets I've seen just how abrupt and charm devoid Clinton has been when I've heard the sound bites from her speeches. She's not very endearing, comes across more like your stern grandmother that forces you to go to church on a Sunday when you don't want to (from personal experience lol).

Said it a while back but people are so blind, Trump has every chance of winning. At every step of the way his unique character has made him more and more popular amongst the common plebs. Just like eejits like Farage or Boris Johnson during the catastrophic Brexit campaign. Be prepared for President Trump. And god help us all.

And yeah I truly think Sanders would be faring far better than Clinton right now. He really appealed to the youth. A youth that won't vote for Trump, and largely aren't all that fussed about voting for Clinton either. Should they vote for Clinton? Probably yeah. The same crap is better than the fucking shitshow of god knows what a Trump presidency could bring. Will they vote Clinton, will they vote? I suspect it may be crucial.

If America votes Trump then, like Brexit, the people will have gotten what they deserved.
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I think a better comparison then brexit is the federal election in Canada last year that kinda had similar anti-immigrant rhetoric spouted by the conservative party but it was less extreme.Trump is playing the role of the conservatives in last year's federal election in Canada even though that political party always had a higher chance of winning their election than trump does of winning this election because their were literally leading at times in that election. Trump has a pretty low ceiling like the federal conservatives in Canada last year while his opponent has a higher ceiling. The good thing is unlike the Canadian election Hilary has been leading for like the last year or so against trump even though it has been kinda close at times. The left wing parties lead at times for a bit in the federal election in Canada but one of the left wing parties were not able to break through and beat the conservatives until the end of the election campaign. Trump does have a shot at winning this election but his ceiling issue like the federal conservatives ceiling issue in last year's federal election in Canada will be his downfall. People still need to vote and make sure that trump actually loses this election.
 
gaugebozo said:
Is it just me or did the Aleppo thing not hurt Johnson at all?
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I don't think most Libertarian voters care about foreign policy that much, or rather, to the extent they do, they care about it in the sense they want it to be nothing like the status quo. The most common policy position is "don't intervene, regardless", so not knowing anything about something you don't intend to do anything about anyway is by-the-by.
 
As a northern neighbour, the idea of Trump becoming president is apprehension inducing. That man is all about self serving and profiting without any regard for the cost.

Given what has happened under Obama or lack thereof (racial discrimination, still untouchable 2nd amendment etc) I don't have hope that things will improve under Hillary.

I was rooting for Bernie through and through.

All in all, I expect things to shift (for worse) under Trump and while I am generally an empathetic individual, I hope Americans reap what they sow under him. After all, lessons learned the hard way are the ones that are remembered the longest.
 
Escape Goat said:
Just wait for Stein and Johnson to drop out. Clinton will regain her lead.
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They won't drop out, at least in the conventional sense. Third parties go all the way until Election Day so they can use the final number of votes they got as bragging for the next four years. They won't drop out, but once they miss the debates, most Americans will treat them like they have.
 
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