semiconscious
Member
this says it all, imo. come holiday time, if you can just wait a few weeks / couple months, you know, at this point, you'll be getting the game for 1/2-1/3 the price. this gotta have a huge impact on release sales...
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this says it all, imo. come holiday time, if you can just wait a few weeks / couple months, you know, at this point, you'll be getting the game for 1/2-1/3 the price. this gotta have a huge impact on release sales...
MatPiscatella
Member
Great questions! Okay, let's start here. Not sure what you mean here. Are you saying that Pokemon should be combined for the comp? If so, I'd disagree. They are separate games. But let's keep going...
But that's what the data is saying, and the delineation is made only because that's what the data is presenting. I'm not making this stuff up. There's a very obvious and significant break between how the top 3 games this year performed when compared to how the top 3 games last year performed. Each of the top 3 this year performed significantly worse.
On the other hand, the #4 game this year sold a bit more than the #4 game did last year, as did all but one other game in the top 10.
I wouldn't say I was concerned, but let's keep going...
I don't think so. Pokemon and 3DS games are competing for the same dollars people might spend elsewhere in gaming and entertainment.
Just about flat.
I really enjoyed the campaign, would love to see TF2 be a slow burn and just keep on selling.
If only there was more SP content on the way... but yeah that's a game I'll go back to probably every year for a run through.
I buy a lot of games but just wasn't interested in ANY of the November offerings outside of FFXV and I have yet to pick that up because I'm still playing games that came out earlier in the year (looking at you, Overwatch).
I did pick up TF2 but have yet to take the shrinkwrap off of it. Got it for $30 from Best Buy for the PC and will probably crack it open over the Holidays.
As a busy adult I find myself increasingly going to games I can play a little bit at a time over a longer period of time. Blizzard games are great for this and lately I've picked up the Diablo 3 Battlechest for PC and spent some money on stuff in Heroes of the Storm.
At this point my next major spend will be in January with several of the games that drop towards the latter part of the month. In all likelihood, at least one of those games will sit on my shelf, still in the shrinkwrap, for at least a couple of months. This is the life of a busy adult gamer.
Norse
Member
I'm really glad to see others chiming in on the needless complexity of controls for todays games. It's the number one reason why I don't buy near as many games as I used to.
As far as SP games go, I feel that's Sony and MS job to produce these. These are the exclusives we want Imo. SP games are responsible for a console's mascots per say. When you think PS or Xbox, don't you think of single player characters first?
As far as SP games go, I feel that's Sony and MS job to produce these. These are the exclusives we want Imo. SP games are responsible for a console's mascots per say. When you think PS or Xbox, don't you think of single player characters first?
Norse
Member
In another thread for npd we have November hardware numbers for ps4/pro and Xbox one.
1.1m ps4/pro
1.0m xbone
That's where the 2.1m came from.
Rexatality
Member
I guess stealth-action games don't appeal to you anymore. And thats fine the way I see it. Games like Dishonored or Deus Ex aren't meant for everyone.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Those numbers are dubious to say the least.
Welfare
Member
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Publishers have trained consumers to wait for Black Friday sales for both hardware and software. It's their fault the year is so bloated toward the back end, and consumer expectations are so out of whack.
Based on sales they are for a marginal group of people
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
I've never took as fact numbers from a website without any other confirmation to corroborate them.
Norse
Member
Norse
Member
They were confirmed by multiple sources. Sorry you don't like them.
You add in the numerous holiday sales even after Black Friday and it just doesn't make a ton of sense to buy a lot of games full price anymore this time of year unless it's something you've been looking forward to. I skipped out on titles like Deus Ex and Dishonored 2 precisely because I knew they'd be a fraction of the price mere months down the road.
MatPiscatella
Member
I'll just put this quote here...
It's just November. Bit of a mix up in the thread title.
Yes.
It's just November. Bit of a mix up in the thread title.
Yes.
Alex_Mexico
Member
Im confused. Are these numbers for an entire year or just for a time period? I have a difficult time believing Titanfall and Watch Dogs 2 are both in the top 10 of 2016
Just for November...
Effigenius
Member
Im surprised the decline was only 49%
Rexatality
Member
Maybe. But I'd hate to see them gone just because their mechanics didn't gel with a lot of people. It's annoying some people are contemptuous towards them just because of their hybrid gameplay style.
Games like Dishonored and Deus Ex are dime a dozen these days
Yes and no. Yes we have been trained to expect major BF sales. The difference this year is that the top selling game in November could be had for less than $40. BF1 and TF2 less than 30 and same for just about every title not named Pokemon or Watchdogs 2. Essentially Watchdogs 2 was the only title in the top 10 to retail at a price point above $40 for the month of November (not counting GCU discounts). There are few incentives to be there Day 1 for most SP AAA games. Many gaffers took advantage of the visa checkout at BB to preorder games they like but if you can grab the same game for $30 less than a month down the road there is something inherently "wrong" or "off" about that pricing structure. Especially when you couple it with significantly lower Day 1 sales for many AAA juggernauts.
ethomaz
Banned
It is not you but the guys doing the math.
They are using 2.1m to find 30% are U4 bundles but in fact the U4 bundle is 30% of all hardware sales that is indeed way higher than 2.1m... close to 3m to be fair but we don't have numbers yet.
MatPiscatella
Member
Most often, publishers offered what are called "Back End Rebates" where an agreed to dollar amount off the wholesale price for each unit sold will be refunded to the retailer for lowering the retail price.
For example, a game that retails for $59.99 may have a wholesale price of call it $46.
The publisher wants to have the game sell for $30 on Black Friday, or a 50% off retail sale.
The retailer will put the game on sale, and tally the number of units sold. Let's call it 1,000 pieces sell at the discounted price.
The math isn't exact, but in this case the publisher would pay basically half the wholesale price (or around $23) to the retailer as a rebate for each unit sold, or around $23,000.
In a vast majority of cases, the publisher will take the hit on the discount, while retailer margin will be protected.
However, sometimes a retailer will decide to drop the price on its own for a number of reasons. In that case, the retailer would eat the discount.
Hope that helps.
Lol a mod hijacked my thread and put a misleading title
Thanks for all the insight mr. Piscatella
Does the good performance of the 4-10 titles go all the way down to 10? Eg did the number 10 title this year sell the same as last years ?
Personally I didn't bother with those two sequels because they looked too similar to games I had already played and finished and felt like I had no need to go back to their respective wells.
theprodigy
Member
half price means twice as many sales required to reach the same position as a $60 game (granted I don't think any game this month had anywhere near $60 ASP, but still)
Hellsing321
Member
I dropped Ubisoft games cold turkey years ago and it's the best decision I've made in my life. I lost 50lbs, I'm happier, I'm eating healthier, I met someone. If it worked for me it can work for anyone!
Wow final fantasy 15 gonna knock CoD out the top spot next month
Would have thought watch doggies would be higher though
Rexatality
Member
In that case, I can't help but think maybe both sequels would gain more traction if they completely overhauled the core gameplay mechanics (Much to the chagrin of their fans).
Or maybe they didn't do good marketing after all. It's useless to speculate anyways
FinaruDensetsu
Member
Multiple people have confirmed and you have Mat here who hasn't denied that those numbers are right. The numbers are legit.
MatPiscatella
Member
Heh, just Mat, and no problem!
Almost all of the rest of the top 10 is up YoY.
It's a very weird month. Usually, when a month is down, you see down performance across all titles in terms of where those titles ranked. This month, it's just those top 3 that drove everything else down.
And of course, when the biggest ranking games are down, that generally translates into less hardware interest.
Games like COD ain't called market movers for nothing.
My hypothesis at the moment is that the core audience still bought a lot of games, and they bought a ton digitally on promotion, but that the mass market didn't find the available games as attractive as last year.
Also noodling writing a piece on how 2016 is the year that digital retailers stole one of the major traditional advantages of Q4 b&m retail regarding heavy price promotion.
I sincerely hope they don't have to. Or Arkane doesn't, at least. Dishonored is unique enough in terms of gameplay that I think I can buy more of the "same" (it's really not at all the same) for a long time.
Mister Megative
Banned
Wisdom.
The sky isn't falling, people.
Wait til we're comparing this holiday to next, when Destiny 2/RDR2/ Battlefront 2 hit.
Mister Megative
Banned
Indeed, they are.
MatPiscatella
Member
And Switch SW, and whatever happens with Scorpio... I mean the opportunities coming next year are pretty massive.
I don't consider this holiday as part of a trend. More of a blip.
metalslimer
Member
I'm glad CoD is no longer consuming the holidays anymore at least. For so many years it basically scared almost every other game out of the same window.
Square2015
Member
WiiU HW?
Dragon Quest VII LTD?
DQ Builders LTD?
Tales of Zestiria LTD?
Dragon Quest VII LTD?
DQ Builders LTD?
Tales of Zestiria LTD?
Except they really aren't separate games and I'm a little curious why you'd consider them to be? They share one production cycle, one advertising campaign, one release date, one game design, one platform and the vast majority of their content, assets and and code. They're really two versions of the same game and in fact share more in common than some other titles that NPD classifies as one game based on (presumably) their title alone. Even in the YOY top 3 comparison the 360/PS3 and PS4/XBO/PC versions of MW3 feature more fundamental differences than Sun & Moon do.
Although I think the strongest argument that Pokémon Sun and Moon are one game is that their publisher says they are. Separating Pokémon releases (and other similar releases) has always been a confusing decision on NPD's part.
Well, I would agree there's actually more crossover between the 3DS and HD console audiences than most people give credit for. I'd also argue than was the case with DS/Wii and last gen's HD consoles though.
That's not too bad then really and shows the issue is at the top. Perhaps long term we see a further contraction from several AAA publishers to just several AAA brands if the market continues going this way?
That said it's too bad new hardware did little to really drive home console sales. Yes software is king but I think this console cycle has the potential to be shorter than some expect and it'll be interesting to see how this might impact further hardware launches next year.
PsihoPerihelion
Member
Hang in there, Titanfall 2!
MatPiscatella
Member
Different names, different UPCs. If NIN and/or retail wanted those kinds of games rolled up together, it'd have been done by now.
No argument from me.
Sure hope not. We need more releases and diversity, not fewer and more homogeneous.
Funny you should mention it...
You have been able to get great deals for a while now. In the past few years I have been able to get Battlefield 3 for $28, Dishonored for $25, etc. All not long after release. This is another thing that made Dishonored 2 and WD2's release date whacky to me. If you are not participating in Black Friday mayhem, you are hurting your chances at moving copies.
This why I am interested to see what happens with FFXV, TLG, and DR4. Maybe the long term anticipation factor on the first two overcome people having bought a bunch of games days earlier, but I am not so sure.