Big Green Anus
Member
I thought Sea of Thieves had a small budget. I really hope it's a success, but I have a feeling the studio might close down since I don't see this game selling well.
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- Thread starter Banjo-Kazooie
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6 months to a year post launch. Let's be generous in this case.
Dude, you've got to get over Evolve. Have you forgotten the success of Overwatch? How about Battlefront? Oh, yeah, this little independent title called League of Legends?
Give me a break.
Looking for Group will be our friend. I was starting to tire of Gears 4 Horde as people were just quitting or going for their own objectives. Since using Looking for Group I'm enjoying it again and playing with people who just want to have fun, like myself.
Try it out, I'm sure there will be folk on here looking to play. I'll be down for it as long as you don't mind hearing some profanities in a strong Glaswegian accent
Sounds good to me! It's still inexplicably just 25 on Amazon Spain in case anyone missed it.
since this turned into the official Phil twitter thread:
this tweet is interesting just as much for what it doesn't say as for what it says
A palpable sense of sadness in that Phil tweet.
I think the ceiling for SoT is probably what Ark is doing on Xbox. Which is pretty good to say the least but it's not Minecraft or CoD.
They'll judge it by the pre-order numbers.
I'm confident in Sea of Thieves. There is an instant joy to it that is unlike a lot of games, and I think that the word of mouth will allow it to gain a dedicated following. If they can package the shell of the game correctly around the brilliant core, I think it will succeed.
Edit: Way too much Twitter psychoanalysis happening in this thread, jesus.
Edit: Way too much Twitter psychoanalysis happening in this thread, jesus.
Who will, MS? Cause that would be the worst case scenario for Rare, honestly. Like chopping block bad.
RedSparrows
Member
Gamer psychology: The Thread.
I don't think so, QB did less than 150K NPD from what I can see and it had the whole month. IF SOT has a good beta, it should do more than that in its launch day let alone month. I know that's only the first month but QB sales dropped off anyway. I mean you're comparing 2 SP games to a MP game, MP games always do well on Xbox if they're actually good.
Sea of Thieves will be extremely lucky to sell Gears of War 4/Fora Horizon 3 numbers, let alone halo, it'll sell more in the region of dead rising/Quantum Break numbers.
I don't think SOT will do Halo numbers at launch, but twitch streamers post launch will help it (I expect it to be among the top games watched on Twitch for a while - unlike Gears 4 and Halo which is at #36 and #61 atm) and the PC version will help out a bit too (yes I know win10, but we're still a year or so away from release the store will improve and if the game blows up I think people will buy it anyways regardless of store).
.. But that's all depending on IF it has a really good beta and the twitch presence post launch is good. The beta will make or break the game
And to be honest when I posted that I kinda forgot about Halo, but assuming Halo has done 4-5M in its first year, I think SOT can compete with it if again, it has a good beta and among the top games on Twitch for a while. Plus it's coming out 2 years later (higher install base), that should help it out a bit.
onemanasylum
Banned
Zero Dawn impressions are from the press, not just beta forums.....big difference.
RedSparrows
Member
Not for quality, actually, given how often the press shit on/over praise things.
But for stupid hype trains for niche demographics, sure.
tiredheadcrab
Member
Yeah I've been reading impressions from the press for over 10 years now. It means nothing no matter the company. I have seen games go from all hype to shit after release.
The thing is, its rather sad to see this happen. I dont like it when this happens but it does.
None of them know what the fuck they're talking about to be perfectly honest. None of them but me. That's my philosophy when dealing with any impressions lol.
Crayon
Member
What? An early access game that wasn't even released retail or with any major marketing or ad presence at all? It's a successful product based on budget I'm sure but sea of thieves is more like "needs multiple millions of copies sold" territory.
As someone who played Fable Legends, that game was shit. There was zero impetus to keep playing. Upgrading your character was slow as molasses. Fighting was poop. Graphics were great though, lol.
Exact same opinion, great great AMAZING art. Awful gameplay and very boring
CrimsonEclipse
Member
Yeah, combat could of us some work...I dunno why they didn't just make it into fable 4 with some MP aspects maybe build out the game world as time progresses or some shit. Those visuals tho, it was gorgeous.
Doctor Avatar
Banned
That's a pretty low bar, though.
MS have a big problem with first party games and original IP. They could get away with it during the 360 era as they had a year head start, cheaper console and superior third party support. They aren't getting away with it now.
They have systemically been destroying their ability to diversify too, buying developers like Lionhead and Rare just to basically run them into the ground, paying third party developers to make exclusive games just to pull the rug out from under them and sometimes destroy the poor developer in the process.
If I was an Xbox One only owner I would be pretty unhappy right now. Unless I really, really, REALLY loved Gears/Halo/Forza.
Sony have invested in developers and the industry to create a broad portfolio of games and talent to support their consoles. MS clearly don't care to make the kind of sustained investment Sony have, and are trying to take the easy road to success - the outsourcing model, which requires less risk from their part and more risk from the poor developers that get screwed over like Platinum. It isn't a positive thing for the industry.
onemanasylum
Banned
As if Forums are a place for legit coverage......i'll take the press's glowing impressions any day, Forums are too hyperbolic and full of fanboys.
Ark sold over a million, months agowith no marketing and is still pretty high on the played lists. A finished game that's actually marketed should do better
Plus Ark was only available digitally obviously, Sea of Thieves being available at retail will help it too
If Ark can sell that much in just a few month with all that you said, Sea of Thieves should be able to do much more than that assuming it's actually good etc. Twitch bait games sell a lot if they're good, that's why I have high expectations for SOT
Shpeshal Nick
aka Collingwood
Huh? Dude. Please read my posts better.
It's not about being multiplayer only. Titanfall is my favourite shooter ever and it's multiplayer only. It's about forcing playing with friends to get enjoyment out of the game
The games you listed, Overwatch, Battlefront, LoL are all completely enjoyable as a Lone Wolf. Are they more enjoyable with friends? Of course.
Evolve is ONLY enjoyable with friends. Hence all the trade show buzz it received prior to launch. Sea of Thieves appears to follow in the same vein. It appears to require playing with friends for enjoyment.
I'd be shocked if playing by yourself and being repeatedly killed and pillaged in a pirate game would be much fun. Or playing with ransoms who couldn't care less about your intentions/objectives and do their own thing.
As I've said. That's fine. For those who have a group of friends to play this with. Have a blast. It looks great. But I personally am yet to see a game that forces playing with friends be truly successful.
Samurai G0SU
Member
Guess those tweets we talked about are thread and gaming website news worthy.
Ark has sold over 1.5 million copies on Xbox One alone. The poster I was replying to said niche titles don't sell well on Xbox (which I mostly agree with). I gave an example of a similar game that could give us an idea of what Sea of Thieves could accomplish. And we have no idea what the budget for Sea of Thieves is, how big is Rare these days, what the marketing campaign will look like, etc. If Sea of Thieves can sell over 2 million copies across PC and Xbox One with good player retention in the first year I would say that's a realistic expectation. If it's a good game that is.
Did you stop and just look around a lot, too? There were some stunning vistas from Brightlodge and a lot of the courses were gorgeous. The whole 20 hours or so I put into it, the whole freaking time, I kept wishing it was a different game where I could explore and mess around like the old games.
Like I kinda wish it could've been something like overwatch. A hero fighter. Cause they had like 15+ unique hero characters. And the graphics were great. Would it have been so hard to make it into an arena team based fighting game instead of scrapping the entire thing. Seems like such a waste
Or like turn it into a moba or something
https://youtu.be/2NjVZfJ63ls
Here what you do. You take the FL art, characters and give it to iron galaxy. Have them take the assets and built 3-4 arena maps, balance the characters a little bit and put out a F2P hero shooter
SneakersSO
Member
>Large
>Large
>Depends on social media engagement going up after E3, but right now its small. Could be bigger now that Scalebound is out & they NEED something to promote
>Very unlikely.
VanCityGamer
Member
I would be SHOCKED if it got 90 plus on Meta. I'll predict 83.
Hmm always forget the Windows Store is a big hamper on their PC releases. Ark I believe has sold over 5 million units on Steam. What an odd success story for such a buggy ass dinosaur game.
Nice to know Rare is still kicking it though. Was really worried after they cut off kinect like a diseased limb lots of Rare might have gone with it.
Samurai G0SU
Member
If there arent any improvements with the windows store. I feel like any pc release will be held back by walls. I never read any good numbers for xbox games on pc yet... or did i miss it?
Man, I highly doubt sea of thieves is anywhere close to offering the same depth and variety in gameplay as something like destiny. It seems unique with a cool coop multiplayer aspect and unless it is a breakout hit with great word of mouth like rocket league or splatoon it is going to bomb. MS would be smart to NOT release it in the holiday season to even give the game a chance of succeeding.
This strikes me as a game that would do really well on Steam at $40, but uh, I'm assuming that's not the business model, so I've just kind of written them off already.
Like I look at that game, and it looks like such a well thought out version of all those emergent sandbox survival and etc games like Rust, DayZ, H1Z1, but it's just never going to be reachable by that audience as a $60 Xbox One and Windows 10 Store game.
ARK on Xbox Obe is probably the best argument for success, but I'm still expecting them to charge too much money up front.
That may be fun, but I'm not sure it would go over any better than FL given that people would know where it's from. If you spent time looking over the feedback in the beta forum you may have noticed an overwhelming amount of players who complained it wasn't Fable 4.
I think they'd have to make it a brand new IP and make it look different, so it's not attached to FL at all.
Wait how much do you think scalebound would have sold?
Even if the beta is a disaster and nobody likes it at all it'll still do more than Scalebound would have imo that game was destined to bomb massively.
Scalebound would have been like recore level of sales. Maybe even worse lol
Well, I don't think you target those people tbh. They aren't going to like anything you do.
stuff like smite and paladins do really well. The game had tons of customizable already there to make money. This would probably be the best looking Free2play game on consoles
Also I think you need to keep the fable branding. Calling it something like Fabel Champions still would draw more eyes than a new ip and reskinning the characters
All of these discussions right now are silly. Neither of you are in a position to estimate which of these games would have sold worse.
Let's just all agree that, like ReCore, Scalebound would have been a massive bomb, and Sea of Theives still will be.
I think Scalebound was gonna bomb and I feel the same about Sot.
I said damn. In regards to SoT, is there nothing MS can do to salvage it if it does indeed bomb initially?
Deep price cuts. If that doesn't work, then I guess they'll try to Evolve it and see if it works out better for them.
True. But going f2p would be a last resort option for them, no? Since they've come out and specifically said this won't be a f2p game.
goldenpp72
Member
Bayonetta sold something like a million on 360, I definitely think Scalebound was more appealing to that audience than Bayo, with the right marketing it would have sold more than 500k at least.
chaosmaster(1)
Member
Man I fear for Rare, I don't want to see them die.
Steelyuhas
Member
Destiny and The Division are two the best selling new IPs in a while, the former being a retention beast.