QuixoticNeutral
Member
For those of you wondering about the precedent for the announcement of a new full-priced first-party retail title at (almost) every general, global Direct (not counting E3 presentations), here's a quick sketch.
This is not an exhaustive list, but to my knowledge, everything here was officially acknowledged for the first time in the video presentation, even if some (like Majora's Mask 3D) were preceded by extensive rumours or vague foreknowledge that the studio involved was hard at work on something. Meanwhile, I excluded games like Star Fox Guard and Tokyo Mirage Sessions that, while freshly unveiled as though they were new, were already expected in some form (the Project Guard prototype and SMTxFE, respectively).
I've only gone as far back as the early 2013 blowouts, as any earlier than that and you get into the Wii U launch, where things get murky. There was a December 2012 Direct within three weeks of the Wii U release, for instance, that revealed nothing totally new but covered the known upcoming titles (Lego City, Pikmin 3, Game & Wario) and also some 3DS content (Dark Moon), and it's tempting to latch onto that as the most pessimistic precedent for the first post-Switch Direct.
Jan 2013 (Wii U):
- Yarn Yoshi (Yoshi's Woolly World, rel. Jun 2015 (EU), Jul 2015 (JP), Oct 2015 (NA))
- SMTxFE (Tokyo Mirage Sessions, rel. Dec 2015 (JP), Jun 2016 (NA/EU))
- Wind Waker HD (rel. Sep 2013 (NA/JP), Oct 2013 (EU))
- X (Xenoblade X, rel. Apr 2015 (JP), Dec 2015 (NA/EU))
Feb 2013 (3DS):
- Mario & Luigi: Dream Team (rel. Jul 2013 (EU/JP), Aug 2013 (NA))
- Mario Golf: World Tour (rel. May 2014)
- Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D (rel. May 2013)
Apr 2013:
- Yoshi's New Island (rel. Mar 2014 (NA/EU), Jul 2014 (JP))
- A Link Between Worlds (rel. Nov 2013)
Aug 2013 — Nothing new + first-party + retail (Art Academy: SketchPad, Professor Layton localizations)
Oct 2013 — Kirby: Triple Deluxe (rel. Jan 2014 (JP), May 2014 (NA/EU))
Dec 2013 — Hyrule Warriors (rel. Aug 2014 (JP), Sep 2014 (NA/EU))
Feb 2014 — Nothing new + first-party + retail (eShop: Rusty's Real Deal Baseball, NES Remix 2)
Nov 2014 — Majora's Mask 3D (rel. Feb 2015)
Jan 2015:
- Fire Emblem (FE If/Fates, rel. Jun 2015 (JP), Feb 2016 (NA), May 2016 (EU))
- Xenoblade Chronicles 3D (rel. Apr 2015)
Apr 2015 — Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer (rel. Jul 2015 (JP), Sep 2015 (NA), Oct 2015 (EU))
Nov 2015 — Twilight Princess HD (rel. Mar 2016)
Mar 2016:
- Paper Mario: Color Splash (rel. Oct 2016)
- Kirby: Planet Robobot (rel. Apr 2016 (JP), Jun 2016 (NA/EU))
Sep 2016 (3DS):
- Super Mario Maker 3DS (rel. Dec 2016)
- Pikmin 3DS (to be released)
*
Obviously the strategy for the general Directs has changed quite a bit over time (they've become infrequent, for one thing), but one thing we can observe is that in this span, we've only been bereft of significant first-party announcements twice (August 2013, February 2014) and in both cases we received new eShop content on short notice. In multiple cases, new announcements of retail games had a quick turnaround time as short as three months to release. And in several cases, the biggest announcement was a port/remaster.
Despite its proximity to E3, the April slot has not historically deterred Nintendo from new announcements of games coming later in the year, including significant titles like ALBW.
Long localizations notwithstanding, new announcements in Directs nearly always arrive within the year, apart from the January 2013 Wii U blowout and notable, acknowledged delays like Mario Golf.
Also note that Pokémon runs on its own independent calendar.
*
With all this in mind, at minimum we'll see one first-party offering we've never heard of before, and I'd set my expectations like this:
- Lower bound — eShop surprise within the next month
- Average case — Spin-off or sequel in a minor IP by the end of 2017, or anthology/compilation (either platform)
- Upper bound — Retail title in a major first-party IP, Fall 2017 (probably 3DS), or a notable port/remaster on Switch
- Wildly optimistic scenario — Mother 3
We have, of course, been fairly warned that this is mainly a Arms/Splatoon Direct, so it could always wind up being like the December 2012 Wii U Direct that got the upcoming releases out of the way before the big, far-reaching presentation the next month (analogous to where we sit now in relation to E3). But strategies for the Direct have always varied: some are long-term, some are short-term, and there are always a few known entities that have to be covered now or never. Arms was definitely going to receive a Direct this month, one way or another, and Splatoon and whatever else we hear about are being bundled in now, I think, in part to get people in the door and give Arms a boost.
This is not an exhaustive list, but to my knowledge, everything here was officially acknowledged for the first time in the video presentation, even if some (like Majora's Mask 3D) were preceded by extensive rumours or vague foreknowledge that the studio involved was hard at work on something. Meanwhile, I excluded games like Star Fox Guard and Tokyo Mirage Sessions that, while freshly unveiled as though they were new, were already expected in some form (the Project Guard prototype and SMTxFE, respectively).
I've only gone as far back as the early 2013 blowouts, as any earlier than that and you get into the Wii U launch, where things get murky. There was a December 2012 Direct within three weeks of the Wii U release, for instance, that revealed nothing totally new but covered the known upcoming titles (Lego City, Pikmin 3, Game & Wario) and also some 3DS content (Dark Moon), and it's tempting to latch onto that as the most pessimistic precedent for the first post-Switch Direct.
Jan 2013 (Wii U):
- Yarn Yoshi (Yoshi's Woolly World, rel. Jun 2015 (EU), Jul 2015 (JP), Oct 2015 (NA))
- SMTxFE (Tokyo Mirage Sessions, rel. Dec 2015 (JP), Jun 2016 (NA/EU))
- Wind Waker HD (rel. Sep 2013 (NA/JP), Oct 2013 (EU))
- X (Xenoblade X, rel. Apr 2015 (JP), Dec 2015 (NA/EU))
Feb 2013 (3DS):
- Mario & Luigi: Dream Team (rel. Jul 2013 (EU/JP), Aug 2013 (NA))
- Mario Golf: World Tour (rel. May 2014)
- Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D (rel. May 2013)
Apr 2013:
- Yoshi's New Island (rel. Mar 2014 (NA/EU), Jul 2014 (JP))
- A Link Between Worlds (rel. Nov 2013)
Aug 2013 — Nothing new + first-party + retail (Art Academy: SketchPad, Professor Layton localizations)
Oct 2013 — Kirby: Triple Deluxe (rel. Jan 2014 (JP), May 2014 (NA/EU))
Dec 2013 — Hyrule Warriors (rel. Aug 2014 (JP), Sep 2014 (NA/EU))
Feb 2014 — Nothing new + first-party + retail (eShop: Rusty's Real Deal Baseball, NES Remix 2)
Nov 2014 — Majora's Mask 3D (rel. Feb 2015)
Jan 2015:
- Fire Emblem (FE If/Fates, rel. Jun 2015 (JP), Feb 2016 (NA), May 2016 (EU))
- Xenoblade Chronicles 3D (rel. Apr 2015)
Apr 2015 — Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer (rel. Jul 2015 (JP), Sep 2015 (NA), Oct 2015 (EU))
Nov 2015 — Twilight Princess HD (rel. Mar 2016)
Mar 2016:
- Paper Mario: Color Splash (rel. Oct 2016)
- Kirby: Planet Robobot (rel. Apr 2016 (JP), Jun 2016 (NA/EU))
Sep 2016 (3DS):
- Super Mario Maker 3DS (rel. Dec 2016)
- Pikmin 3DS (to be released)
*
Obviously the strategy for the general Directs has changed quite a bit over time (they've become infrequent, for one thing), but one thing we can observe is that in this span, we've only been bereft of significant first-party announcements twice (August 2013, February 2014) and in both cases we received new eShop content on short notice. In multiple cases, new announcements of retail games had a quick turnaround time as short as three months to release. And in several cases, the biggest announcement was a port/remaster.
Despite its proximity to E3, the April slot has not historically deterred Nintendo from new announcements of games coming later in the year, including significant titles like ALBW.
Long localizations notwithstanding, new announcements in Directs nearly always arrive within the year, apart from the January 2013 Wii U blowout and notable, acknowledged delays like Mario Golf.
Also note that Pokémon runs on its own independent calendar.
*
With all this in mind, at minimum we'll see one first-party offering we've never heard of before, and I'd set my expectations like this:
- Lower bound — eShop surprise within the next month
- Average case — Spin-off or sequel in a minor IP by the end of 2017, or anthology/compilation (either platform)
- Upper bound — Retail title in a major first-party IP, Fall 2017 (probably 3DS), or a notable port/remaster on Switch
- Wildly optimistic scenario — Mother 3
We have, of course, been fairly warned that this is mainly a Arms/Splatoon Direct, so it could always wind up being like the December 2012 Wii U Direct that got the upcoming releases out of the way before the big, far-reaching presentation the next month (analogous to where we sit now in relation to E3). But strategies for the Direct have always varied: some are long-term, some are short-term, and there are always a few known entities that have to be covered now or never. Arms was definitely going to receive a Direct this month, one way or another, and Splatoon and whatever else we hear about are being bundled in now, I think, in part to get people in the door and give Arms a boost.
