UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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Cirion said:
From a German perspective, the UK electoral system looks to be even more dysfunctional than the US system. It combines the vast power parties achieve in parliamentary systems with the extremely voter-structure misrepresenting FTPT system of the US that results in a parliament that doesn't reflect the will of the people at all and fails at several fundamental gold standards of a functional democracy. I think there are political scientists who basically call the PM a temporary dictator - no real second chamber, most of the time no need for coalitions and compared to the US a majority in parliament that is much less likely to throw wrenches into the governments plans.
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Moreover British parliament is completely sovereign and the lack of a written constitution means they are free to repeal and pass almost any law they please so the stakes are quite a bit higher.
 
Theonik said:
Moreover British parliament is completely sovereign and the lack of a written constitution means they are free to repeal and pass almost any law they please so the stakes are quite a bit higher.
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The UK is barely a functional democracy. But it won't change because as a population we seem completely allergic to change unless it's involves some jingoistic racism.
 
ReplacementPelican said:
This makes me wonder if the SNP need to calm down with the leaving rhetoric for a bit. Then again, if Scotland goes back to Labour that may be better for some of you (Labour Gaffers, I mean) anyway.
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I think they already are trying. The word "referendum" (in reference only to a future Scottish referendum, not EU and 2014) is only used 6 times in 50 pages.

Their issue is that as the progressive policies of Corbyn become more attractive to left wing voters, that those who voted for them, but do not support indy will get siphoned off.

Edit: and the word "independence" (in ref to the future, not things like the independence of panels in Westminster, or the 2014 ref) is only used 5 times.
 
The National Centre for Social Research has released a survey which has found that only 53% of young people are certain to vote.

For fucks sake. If that turns out to be right, we're not getting another manifesto so young person-friendly any time soon.
 
ReplacementPelican said:
This makes me wonder if the SNP need to calm down with the leaving rhetoric for a bit. Then again, if Scotland goes back to Labour that may be better for some of you (Labour Gaffers, I mean) anyway.
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Scottish Labour are pretty bad, the people of Scotland should vote for whoever will best represent their interests.
 
The only way is down for the SNP this election. Seeing as they essentially hold every seat they stood for, that was always going to be the case.

CCS said:
The National Centre for Social Research has released a survey which has found that only 53% of young people are certain to vote.

For fucks sake. If that turns out to be right, we're not getting another manifesto so young person-friendly any time soon.
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Young people are just not a reliable demographic. There's a reason successive governments have been happy to dick them/us over without fear of consequences.

Ghost said:
This event popped up on facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/events/122408068337920/


Currently 500 people planning to attend the pub thats 3 doors up from Corbyns house on Friday at 6pm to 'celebrate his moving day'.


Shame it's not Thursday night the atmosphere might be a bit better.
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They'll need a drink either way.
 
CCS said:
The National Centre for Social Research has released a survey which has found that only 53% of young people are certain to vote.

For fucks sake. If that turns out to be right, we're not getting another manifesto so young person-friendly any time soon.
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It's going to rain on Thursday so you can pretty much forget about the youth vote. Not even joking.
 
CCS said:
The National Centre for Social Research has released a survey which has found that only 53% of young people are certain to vote.

For fucks sake. If that turns out to be right, we're not getting another manifesto so young person-friendly any time soon.
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No way it will be 53% if the weather prediction is correct.
Young people will never stand and wait, especially in anything other than sunshine on Thursday.
 
D4Danger said:
It's going to rain on Thursday so you can pretty much forget about the youth vote.
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Research in 2002 concluded weather doesn't affect UK turnout:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8659913.stm


"If you made a statistical correlation and scored the weather according to how good it was and compiled a graph showing voter turnout, over the last 15 elections you don't see a correlation."
There are good reasons to believe there would be a link, he says, because it is less pleasant to go outside in the rain, but there is little evidence that it is true.
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CCS said:
The National Centre for Social Research has released a survey which has found that only 53% of young people are certain to vote.

For fucks sake. If that turns out to be right, we're not getting another manifesto so young person-friendly any time soon.
Click to expand...

That's 2% more youth turnout than Yougovs polls are expecting, and roughly the same as Cleggmania.
 
SlipperyFishes said:
So I got this rather targeted email from the Lib Dems about 30 mins ago

Things are not looking pretty good on the finances front there for the LDs eh?
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Maybe, maybe not. We actually can't tell too much from this email, honestly. You're never going to get many donations if you say "we're doing alright actually, money would be useful, but we don't really need it".
 
OK guys, we're close enough, let's do our seat predictions.

Here's mine:

Conservative: 345
Labour: 227
SNP: 47
Lib Dem: 9
Green: 1
Plaid Cymru: 1
Speaker: 1
Independent: 1
UKIP: 0
NI: 18

Result: CON maj of 20 (effectively 30 when DUP and UUP included)
 
Meadows said:
OK guys, we're close enough, let's do our seat predictions.

Here's mine:

Conservative: 345
Labour: 227
SNP: 47
Lib Dem: 9
Green: 1
Plaid Cymru: 1
Speaker: 1
Independent: 1
UKIP: 0
NI: 18

Result: CON maj of 20
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Roughly what I'm expecting maybe it'll go as high as 30 or 40 Con majority. Enough for May to claim victory but enough for her to be deposed when Brexit goes bad.


I'll do a specific prediction later.
 
I think it will finish like this:

Conservative: 352
Labour: 219
SNP: 46
Lib Dem: 10
Green: 1
Plaid Cymru: 2
Speaker: 1
Independent: 1
UKIP: 0
NI: 18
 
Speaking of premature, eternally optimistic events - The Brickworks and GBar in Liverpool are having Corbyn Victory Rave events (or more likely - General Election Commiseration Piss-ups)

https://www.facebook.com/events/1320863221330788

I know it's unlikely, but in the supremely unlikely event that he somehow becomes our next Prime Minister - you can't deny there would be scenes on the streets.

In other news:

Check the comments on Theresa May's account of being naughty by running through a field of wheat

https://www.facebook.com/itvnews/videos/10154863360732672/

Gosh!
 
Meadows said:
OK guys, we're close enough, let's do our seat predictions.

Here's mine:

Conservative: 345
Labour: 227
SNP: 47
Lib Dem: 9
Green: 1
Plaid Cymru: 1
Speaker: 1
Independent: 1
UKIP: 0
NI: 18

Result: CON maj of 20 (effectively 30 when DUP and UUP included)
Click to expand...


Don't forget to send this along to Roberto Larcos who is compiling a GE Prediction League. (Details in OP)



Here's mine:

Conservative Party seats:343
Green Party seats:1
Labour seats:220
Lib Dem seats:11
Plaid Cymru seats:3
SNP seats:50
UKIP seats:0
Independently held seats:1
Seats held by other parties: 21
 
Meadows said:
OK guys, we're close enough, let's do our seat predictions.

Here's mine:

Conservative: 345
Labour: 227
SNP: 47
Lib Dem: 9
Green: 1
Plaid Cymru: 1
Speaker: 1
Independent: 1
UKIP: 0
NI: 18

Result: CON maj of 20
Click to expand...

Don't forget your bonuses!


Format:

Seat predictions
Conservative Party seats:
Green Party seats:
Labour Party seats:
Liberal Democrats seats:
Plaid Cymru seats:
Scottish National Party seats:
UK Independence Party seats:
Independently held seats:
Seats held by other parties:

Bonus predictions
Labour wipe-out in Scotland?
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland?
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales?
The Portillo Award goes to ... ?
First resignation of the night?
How many party leaders will resign?
Seat for Nuttall?
Margin of victory over second-placed party by seats?
Margin of victory over second-placed party by votes?

Scoring
Scoring works as follows: 200 points for correct seat allocation, 1 point removed for incorrect distribution. 10 points per correct bonus question. For margin of victory by seats, 50 points for a perfect answer, lose 1 point per seat away from that perfect answer that you were. For margin of victory by votes, 20 points for a perfect answer (rounded to 100,000), lose one point per 100,000 that you were away from thay perfect answer. Margins will be between party with most seats / votes and the party with the second most seats / votes. Portillo award winner will be decided on the night.

Where can I see others' predictions?
Quote to reveal.


Prize
Probably something fizzy and alcoholic. Useful for celebration / consolation.

Deadline for submissions / alterations
23:59, 07/06/2017.
 
What I don't understand is how are the Tories capturing so much of the unionist vote in Scotland? Wouldn't actually a Labour majority/government hurt the independence plans much more than a Tory one in a long term? Because it would kill the idea that UK and Scotland are so far apart in terms of the vision about the future?
 
Oooh I'll need to put some time aside to come up with numbers, and then make sure they add up to the right amount.


Not to distract from that game - but I'm tempted also to suggest on polling day we run a bonus game of Pollsters Sweepstake, where you can pick from the final poll of each pollster.
 
sionyboy said:
Don't forget to send this along to Roberto Larcos who is compiling a GE Prediction League. (Details in OP)
Click to expand...

Err, not sure how I add it so my predictions are above. On the questions asked on the sheet:

BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? No
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? No
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales?* No
The Portillo award goes to..? Not sure what this means...
First resignation of the night? Phillip Hammond
How many party leaders will resign? 1 (Caroline Lucas)
Seat for Nuttall? No
Margin of victory by seats: As per the above predictions
Margin of victory by votes: 44% for the Cons to 36% for Labour
 
My predictions - from when the election was first announced - look very pessimistic now but I'm sticking by them (with the exception of the Lib Dems who will be lucky to get anywhere near 23):

Mr. Sam said:
Conservative Party seats: 369
Green Party seats: 2
Labour seats: 181
Lib Dem seats: 23
SNP seats: 55
Plaid Cymru seats: 3
UKIP seats: 0
Independently held seats: 0
Seats held by other parties: 17

BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? No.
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? Yes.
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales? Yes.
The Portillo award goes to..? Clive Lewis
First resignation of the night? None on the night.
How many party leaders will resign? One.
Seat for Nuttall? No.
Margin of victory by seats: 188
Margin of victory by votes: If I have to give a number, uh... 3 million?

Please note - this is all off the top of my head or, more accurately, out of my arse. No actual analysis has gone into this.
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Meadows said:
Err, not sure how I add it so my predictions are above. On the questions asked on the sheet:

BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? No
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? No
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales?* No
The Portillo award goes to..? Not sure what this means...
First resignation of the night? Phillip Hammond
How many party leaders will resign? 1 (Caroline Lucas)
Seat for Nuttall? No
Margin of victory by seats: As per the above predictions
Margin of victory by votes: 44% for the Cons to 36% for Labour
Click to expand...

Just PM him your predictions. :)
 
KingSnake said:
What I don't understand is how are the Tories capturing so much of the unionist vote in Scotland? Wouldn't actually a Labour majority/government hurt the independence plans much more than a Tory one in a long term? Because it would kill the idea that UK and Scotland are so far apart in terms of the vision about the future?
Click to expand...
Well if a lot of Scots vote for the Tories and we get a Tory government then that also shows we're not so far apart.
96tSzoh.jpg
 
Meadows said:
Err, not sure how I add it so my predictions are above. On the questions asked on the sheet:

BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? No
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? No
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales?* No
The Portillo award goes to..? Not sure what this means...
First resignation of the night? Phillip Hammond
How many party leaders will resign? 1 (Caroline Lucas)
Seat for Nuttall? No
Margin of victory by seats: As per the above predictions
Margin of victory by votes: 44% for the Cons to 36% for Labour
Click to expand...

I'm managing the spreadsheet, just adding everyone's on as they post in this thread or PM me.

Also, looking for a number rather than a % for margin of victory by votes. Cheers! The Portillo Award goes to the most famous / prominent MP to lose their seat. In 2015 that would probably be Ed Balls(though Vince Cable and Charles Kennedy run him close). Named after Michael Portillo, who was unseated in 1997.
 
WhatNXt said:
Speaking of premature, eternally optimistic events - The Brickworks and GBar in Liverpool are having Corbyn Victory Rave events (or more likely - General Election Commiseration Piss-ups)

https://www.facebook.com/events/1320863221330788

I know it's unlikely, but in the supremely unlikely event that he somehow becomes our next Prime Minister - you can't deny there would be scenes on the streets.

In other news:

Check the comments on Theresa May's account of being naughty by running through a field of wheat

https://www.facebook.com/itvnews/videos/10154863360732672/

Gosh!
Click to expand...

What an utter asshole she is
 
WhatNXt said:
Speaking of premature, eternally optimistic events - The Brickworks and GBar in Liverpool are having Corbyn Victory Rave events (or more likely - General Election Commiseration Piss-ups)

https://www.facebook.com/events/1320863221330788

I know it's unlikely, but in the supremely unlikely event that he somehow becomes our next Prime Minister - you can't deny there would be scenes on the streets.
Click to expand...

Forget all the polls and the stats, my gut says that the only history I get to see made these days is the kind that makes me throw up in my mouth a little bit.
 
Beefy said:
So will it be worth staying up and watching the votes come in?
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I was too numb from tiredness to summon much distress at the Tories getting a majority in 2015 so I'd actually recommend it. Waking up at 5 am because of the psychic shock of Donald Trump becoming president was a much less pleasant experience.
 
WhatNXt said:
Speaking of premature, eternally optimistic events - The Brickworks and GBar in Liverpool are having Corbyn Victory Rave events (or more likely - General Election Commiseration Piss-ups)

https://www.facebook.com/events/1320863221330788

I know it's unlikely, but in the supremely unlikely event that he somehow becomes our next Prime Minister - you can't deny there would be scenes on the streets.

In other news:

Check the comments on Theresa May's account of being naughty by running through a field of wheat

https://www.facebook.com/itvnews/videos/10154863360732672/

Gosh!
Click to expand...

She cant give a straight answer to anything can she

I mean, that was about as softball a question as they come, and she still couldn't think of anything
 
Mr. Sam said:
I was too numb from tiredness to summon much distress at the Tories getting a majority in 2015 so I'd actually recommend it. Waking up at 5 am because of the psychic shock of Donald Trump becoming president was a much less pleasant experience.
Click to expand...

fwiw, had you made the mistake of staying up to see how that thing developed, you mightve simply been rendered unable to sleep.

is what happened to me.
 
kmag said:
Roughly what I'm expecting maybe it'll go as high as 30 or 40 Con majority. Enough for May to claim victory but enough for her to be deposed when Brexit goes bad.


I'll do a specific prediction later.
Click to expand...

A 30-40 seat majority is nothing to sniff at, but The Tories will know it is a big opportunity missed for them to get a landslide. As you said, in that scenario May would survuive but she would be politically weakened and no doubt get the boot when the Brexit talks turn sour.
 
hodgy100 said:
My prediction is that the UK = fucked;

Q.Q
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Wonderful, how's this for you?

UKIP: 377
Conservative: 255
Others (DUP + Sinn Féin): 18
Independent: 0 (UKIP are standing in John Bercow's seat)

Sound about right?

Not sure whether the UK would be more fucked for having Sinn Féin winning all NI seats, SNP willing all Scottish seats and Plaid Cymru winning all Welsh seats, mind.

EDIT: Fuck it, new predictions for your uber-fucked UK:
Con: 198
Green: 0
Lab: 0
LD: 0
Plaid: 40
SNP: 59
UKIP: 335
Ind: 0
Others (Sinn Féin): 18
 
I'm a pessimist, but I believe in data, and Survation got it right in 2015, and they're showing it tighter than YouGov, and YouGov have got that fancy modelling thing, so:

Roberto Larcos said:
Don't forget your bonuses!
Click to expand...

Seat predictions
Conservative Party seats: 326
Green Party seats: 1
Labour Party seats: 243
Liberal Democrats seats: 10
Plaid Cymru seats: 2
Scottish National Party seats: 48
UK Independence Party seats: 0
Independently held seats: 1
Seats held by other parties: 18

Bonus predictions
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? No
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? No
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales? No
The Portillo Award goes to ... ? Nick Clegg
First resignation of the night? Paul Nuttall
How many party leaders will resign? 2 (This sort of depends on the window. 2 on the night, possibly 4 by the next week)
Seat for Nuttall? No
Margin of victory over second-placed party by seats? 82
Margin of victory over second-placed party by votes? 900,000


I'd be over the moon with a hung parliament, happy with anything better than the 2015 result, and accepting of a Tory gain of less than 20 seats. Anything less than a 100+ seat Tory majority is honestly a pleasant surprise considering where this campaign started.
 
Biggzy said:
A 30-40 seat majority is nothing to sniff at, but The Tories will know it is a big opportunity missed for them to get a landslide. As you said, in that scenario May would survuive but she would be politically weakened and no doubt get the boot when the Brexit talks turn sour.
Click to expand...

The Tories are programmed to depose their leaders at the first sign of weakness, sub 50 majority given the weight of factors in their favour just now (and the prospect of it getting a lot worse over the next 5 years) alongside cratering personal favourables is weakness. They'll keep her in place to pin the sub-optimal (it'll be sub-optimal for everyone) Brexit deal on her. So unless things magically get better she'll stay in place for the next two years.

If it's a sub 30 majority, she might go before the conferences

If it's as you were, I imagine there will be rumblings of a leadership contest immediately and aggressive briefing against her all summer.


If it's a hung Parliament she won't last next week.
 
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