What ever is going on I can't see her being home secretary. I think a lot of people simply will not vote Labour purely because of Diane Abbott.
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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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OK, scenario: Cons get a 20 seat majority and May is shuffled out by the party in 6 months.
Who replaces her? I honestly can't see any obvious choices.
Boris: An absolute joke of a choice that for some reason people still think could do it, even though he's hated by many in the party, and the general public think he's an idiot. I think his continued link with the job is just a press thing to keep his gaffes in the headlines.
Gove: Seems to have pretty much given up any hope. Hated by the public.
Rudd: Seems OK but didn't perform well at the debate (although under huge pressure and in an awful position). Is looked upon negatively by the public.
Hammond: Not en vogue at the moment with May but perhaps he could get support from another wing of the party? Doesn't seem like a real leader to me.
I suppose there are a few wildcard choices like Javid and Davidson (who could resign and then take some Tory safe seat south of the border in a by-election) but nobody jumps out.
Who replaces her? I honestly can't see any obvious choices.
Boris: An absolute joke of a choice that for some reason people still think could do it, even though he's hated by many in the party, and the general public think he's an idiot. I think his continued link with the job is just a press thing to keep his gaffes in the headlines.
Gove: Seems to have pretty much given up any hope. Hated by the public.
Rudd: Seems OK but didn't perform well at the debate (although under huge pressure and in an awful position). Is looked upon negatively by the public.
Hammond: Not en vogue at the moment with May but perhaps he could get support from another wing of the party? Doesn't seem like a real leader to me.
I suppose there are a few wildcard choices like Javid and Davidson (who could resign and then take some Tory safe seat south of the border in a by-election) but nobody jumps out.
Greg Knight reminds me of Brian Butterfield
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtF3_ybJJ50
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtF3_ybJJ50
I think the main problem with rain is that it causes traffic to slow down to a crawl.
In small constituencies like mine (Liverpool Riverside) it's a non issue because there are never any queues and the polling station is at walking distance. But for people living in busier places like London area where stations can be far away and traffic can get pretty crazy, it could take several hours out of your day especially when it rains.
In small constituencies like mine (Liverpool Riverside) it's a non issue because there are never any queues and the polling station is at walking distance. But for people living in busier places like London area where stations can be far away and traffic can get pretty crazy, it could take several hours out of your day especially when it rains.
Roberto Larcos
Member
For anyone attempting to keep up, quote to reveal a link to the spreadsheet containing all predictions made so far:
No need for snark. Older people are more likely to be patient than younger ones, nothing new about that.
If the Tories only end up with a majority of 20, there's a decentish chance Rudd won't be an MP.
On both sides there is a complete lack of talent. There's no one like Blair to jump in like when Smith died. There's no one with the slick charm of Cameron who could somehow overcome the nasty party tag with a rose-faced handshake.
It's actually a valid concern. May is spent politically, domestically and internationally and we need someone strong and stable to lead us to oblivion
I disagree here, I think Labour have fantastic talent. Ummuna, Starmer, Jarvis, D Miliband, Khan and Burnham would have all won this election if they were Labour leader.
OverBlood 3
Banned
I wish people would open their eyes and see that Dianne Abbott is being badly bullied by the press and thick headed right wingers. People that watched the Sky interview were posting in here that they thought the interviewer came off worse than she did. It's gross, check out that cunt behind Guido Fawkes and point to another MP getting that kind of treatment. It's dog whistle racism at its finest.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Seat predictions
Conservative Party seats: 375
Green Party seats: 1
Labour Party seats: 199
Liberal Democrats seats: 12
Plaid Cymru seats: 2
Scottish National Party seats: 43
UK Independence Party seats: 0
Independently held seats: 1
Seats held by other parties: 18
Bonus predictions
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? No
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? Yes
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales? No
The Portillo Award goes to ... ? On bad LD night - Nick Clegg. On good LD night, Zac Goldsmith. Otherwise, Angus Robertson.
First resignation of the night? Angus Robertson (as leader of the SNP in the HoC, due to losing his seat)
How many party leaders will resign? 0-1 (if Farron resigns it would be at the will of his MPs and he'd only resign if there's a suitable replacement)
Seat for Nuttall? No
Margin of victory over second-placed party by seats? 176
Margin of victory over second-placed party by votes? D/K
Polling percentage prediction:
Con 43
Lab 36
LD 9
Other predictions:
May lasts until talks in Brussels collapse, when she resigns. Amber Rudd takes over as PM.
PLP revolts, again, against Corbyn. Another leadership contest, this time with the real threat of a party split hanging in the air. Dunno what happens afterwards.
LDs go through a party relaunch in the next year, renaming themselves something similar to "The Democrats". If the Labour Party did split, and talks with Brussels did collapse, this is much more likely to occur.
Conservative Party seats: 375
Green Party seats: 1
Labour Party seats: 199
Liberal Democrats seats: 12
Plaid Cymru seats: 2
Scottish National Party seats: 43
UK Independence Party seats: 0
Independently held seats: 1
Seats held by other parties: 18
Bonus predictions
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? No
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? Yes
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales? No
The Portillo Award goes to ... ? On bad LD night - Nick Clegg. On good LD night, Zac Goldsmith. Otherwise, Angus Robertson.
First resignation of the night? Angus Robertson (as leader of the SNP in the HoC, due to losing his seat)
How many party leaders will resign? 0-1 (if Farron resigns it would be at the will of his MPs and he'd only resign if there's a suitable replacement)
Seat for Nuttall? No
Margin of victory over second-placed party by seats? 176
Margin of victory over second-placed party by votes? D/K
Polling percentage prediction:
Con 43
Lab 36
LD 9
Other predictions:
May lasts until talks in Brussels collapse, when she resigns. Amber Rudd takes over as PM.
PLP revolts, again, against Corbyn. Another leadership contest, this time with the real threat of a party split hanging in the air. Dunno what happens afterwards.
LDs go through a party relaunch in the next year, renaming themselves something similar to "The Democrats". If the Labour Party did split, and talks with Brussels did collapse, this is much more likely to occur.
Seat predictions
Conservative Party seats: 280
Green Party seats: 1
Labour Party seats: 275
Liberal Democrats seats: 19
Plaid Cymru seats: 3
Scottish National Party seats: 53
UK Independence Party seats: 0
Independently held seats: 1
Seats held by other parties:18
Bonus predictions
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? No
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? No
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales? No
The Portillo Award goes to ... ? Amber Rudd
First resignation of the night? Theresa May
How many party leaders will resign? 1
Seat for Nuttall? No
Margin of victory over second-placed party by seats? 5
Margin of victory over second-placed party by votes? 10
Hope is a lie
A beautiful lie
Conservative Party seats: 280
Green Party seats: 1
Labour Party seats: 275
Liberal Democrats seats: 19
Plaid Cymru seats: 3
Scottish National Party seats: 53
UK Independence Party seats: 0
Independently held seats: 1
Seats held by other parties:18
Bonus predictions
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? No
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? No
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales? No
The Portillo Award goes to ... ? Amber Rudd
First resignation of the night? Theresa May
How many party leaders will resign? 1
Seat for Nuttall? No
Margin of victory over second-placed party by seats? 5
Margin of victory over second-placed party by votes? 10
Hope is a lie
A beautiful lie
Chocolate & Vanilla
Fuck Strawberry
My prediction : no seat changes at all. Colossal waste of everybody's time.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Nick Clegg and Ken Clarke realise they've been duped into staying in parliament for two more years.
Spuck-uk
Banned
I'd imagine anyone serious about wanting to be leader will want to be nowhere near the horrorshow of Brexit in the next two years. Boris is stupid enough to go for it though.
My post election predictions:
Labour:
After gaining seats and a small bump in % vote, the PLP gets behind Corbyn and the cycle of leadership challenges and revolts end.
Lib Dems:
Cease to exist as a party and rebrand to something new, taking a number of the more centerist Labour MPs with them - perhaps 7 or 8. They take 1 or 2 Conservatives. The new party has around 22 members and pledges to act as a moderating force on UK politics.
Conservatives:
Criticism of May within the party starts to rise but when they realise the election gave them power until 2022 and a slightly bigger base of MPs than before, things start to settle. May continues and if negotiations are successful (which I think they will be, in terms of there being an OK deal) she will stay on until 2020 and then resign before a new leader comes on. The leader is someone we wouldn't expect.
SNP:
Talk of independence in the party starts to wane as they realise that public opinion is swinging against them. A rising Labour party led by a true socialist sucks up their votes and the agenda in Scotland moves away from indyref2 and towards domestic policy. Their record in government proves not to be awful, but is enough to be targeted and they lose their majority in the 2021 elections. There is never an indyref2.
UKIP:
Go the way of the BNP and eventually go bankrupt.
Plaid:
They struggle a lot given the rise of Labour and the lack of will for Welsh independence. They still hold some sway in north west Wales but slide elsewhere.
Labour:
After gaining seats and a small bump in % vote, the PLP gets behind Corbyn and the cycle of leadership challenges and revolts end.
Lib Dems:
Cease to exist as a party and rebrand to something new, taking a number of the more centerist Labour MPs with them - perhaps 7 or 8. They take 1 or 2 Conservatives. The new party has around 22 members and pledges to act as a moderating force on UK politics.
Conservatives:
Criticism of May within the party starts to rise but when they realise the election gave them power until 2022 and a slightly bigger base of MPs than before, things start to settle. May continues and if negotiations are successful (which I think they will be, in terms of there being an OK deal) she will stay on until 2020 and then resign before a new leader comes on. The leader is someone we wouldn't expect.
SNP:
Talk of independence in the party starts to wane as they realise that public opinion is swinging against them. A rising Labour party led by a true socialist sucks up their votes and the agenda in Scotland moves away from indyref2 and towards domestic policy. Their record in government proves not to be awful, but is enough to be targeted and they lose their majority in the 2021 elections. There is never an indyref2.
UKIP:
Go the way of the BNP and eventually go bankrupt.
Plaid:
They struggle a lot given the rise of Labour and the lack of will for Welsh independence. They still hold some sway in north west Wales but slide elsewhere.
Spuck-uk
Banned
While I disagree, they probably wouldn't have had their own party sabotaging them from day one, which would have helped.
Spuck-uk
Banned
She's not been great at all on camera, and arguably should never have been in that situation, but the press have been falling over themselves trying to get another 'gotcha' on her. Theres a decent sized bunch of the public that dislike her because she's a black woman as well.
Huw_Dawson
Member
I'm actually on board with you on this, except I don't think any Labour or Conservative MPs would hop ship. And it would functionally still be the Lib Dems - same membership, same basic constitution. A different vehicle for the same social liberal ideology.
If this was to happen it'd be after a major debate at LD conference (I intend to try and get the issue of a rebrand raised) or the collapse of Brexit talks.
And fwiw it's not fair to say "Cooper/Umunna would have won this" because the only reason this election is happening is because of Corbyn.
Dream timeline: Lib Dems rebrand as "March on" as a partner party to En Marche in France as a force of centrist politics in Europe. The idea catches on throughout Europe in a wave of support.
And_Gignac
Member
*vomits*
Australia already does, for federal and state elections. You're not foced to vote for a party/candidate and can write whatever you like on the ballot. The fine is small, but it means turnout is very high (95%) and voter disenfranchisement is very low.
They say the "bar is set at improving" which will almost certainly happen compared to 2015 so I think it's empty talk
Roberto Larcos
Member
Added.
Ah, Huw - I can tell you're a politician at heart. Going to need to nail down a solid answer for Portillo Award and number of party leaders resigning! Also, you've got 651 MPs there.
Dirtyshubb
Member
They need to back the fuck off. They are acting like he has had a May level of performance when labours growth is phenomenal and he has managed to fight through years of bad press.
Build on his strength now, use that to get even more voters out next time.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Boris should get no nearer to number 10 than he already is. His behavior of late should disqualify him from the job he currently holds frankly. He'd be our Donald Trump. Every bit as embarrassing.
If Labour's share of the votes - not seats, but actual votes - goes down and the membership doesn't really have anything to cling to, then the PLP stand a sliver of a chance. Otherwise it will be every bit as futile and pathetic as last time and I'd really rather they didn't waste everybody's time.
HUW DOESN'T KNOW HIS FIGURES! HOW CAN WE ELECT THE LIB DEMS WHEN THEY DON'T EVEN KNOW BASIC MATHS. THIS IS ABBOTT ALL OVER AGAIN.
Never underestimate Labour's ability to revolt against their leader.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Apologies - gib one off of the Tories, and put down Angus Robertson for the Portillo Award. Party leaders resigning = 0.
I think there's scope for a horrible night for the LDs but I'm not hearing any real panic from the Sheffield Hallam team. So I'll hold off on saying Clegg.
BTW "New Democrats" is my 100% serious suggestion for the LD rebrand if it happens. Shamelessly stolen from a Canadian party.
Honestly, after May wrapped herself in the union flag and stole Ukip's thunder whoever was leader was more than likely going to be on a hiding to nothing.
hydrophilic attack
Member
I just don't see what a name change for the Lib Dems would accomplish. A name change is just cosmetics, the kind of thing you do if you don't have the willpower for real change. The name Liberal Democrats is good. It's descriptive. It describes the ideology of the party. A name like "the Democrats" is useless. It doesn't tell the voter anything. It's just style-over-substance politics
The press concoct problems even where there are none. They made more of the Milliband bros. rivalry than was reality. If they can't cause infighting amongst ambitious leadership rivals, they'll go after you for how you eat a bacon sandwich.
I thought my Labour number looked too high, must have got my maths wrong whilst trying to reconcile it all! Take 10 off them to make it 255
If they succeed with that then they will do more harm than good
Cant see Yvette Cooper managing to engage with people the same way Corbyn has in the last few weeks
Election summed up in 5 seconds by two motorists in this new Guardian video https://youtu.be/dhQIZt7XUFU?t=4m10s
Spuck-uk
Banned
Pretty sure Corbyn would win by an even greater percentage than last time. Burnham won't run for it, Cooper has the charisma of wallpaper paste, Smith got dumpstered already etc etc.
TheCrackInTime
Neo Member
I might go back and add them in, but right now I don't feel confident putting exact numbers down.
Spuck-uk
Banned
It's the most horrible future, so it's likely to happen.
JonathanEx
Member
Are there any good sites for coming up with seat estimates and making sure they add up, or do I have to put in effort? I mean I will happily, but I also like colours.
Are Boris and Gove actually broadly hated or are they just hated on the internet? Boris won London twice, lead Leave to victory and is a key part of the party set to be the largest in Britain. I'm not sure its accurate that these people would be so unpopular.
That being said, I don't see either one taking the leadership. Fwiw, one of my colleagues is heavily involved with the local conservative party and when I asked his preference should May step down, he suggested Ruth Davidson or some backbencher that I can't remember. Actually the general impression I get from him is that he's very impressed with the quality of some of them backbenchers and they just haven't 'hit it big' yet. Still, he's obviously a bit biased in that regard.
The 2021 Scottish parliament elections? You know they don't have a majority at the moment to lose, right?
Roberto Larcos
Member
Even the polling companies aren't confident for this election!
Sorted ( i think)
My fault for trying to fill this in during work ;D
Aha, no worries. Updated.
Huw_Dawson
Member
If there was a significant block of defections, I'd prefer to have the overall block be called "The Democrats" or something and still have the Liberal Democrat party as a sovereign thing. But I'd be unwilling to carry on with the Lib Dem name if the party changed to accomodate a lot of new, not necessarily capital L liberal, people.
Spuck-uk
Banned
Boris didn't 'lead' shit, he u-turned into supporting the more popular cause. Even the 'boris bikes' were a scheme started off by Livingstone, mans a parasite.
Gove is so weird it's hard to believe he's actually human.
Sorry, I mean SNP + Greens, given that they vote together on the independence issue.
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