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June 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, July 11th

N

noobie

Banned
Crash release fall in June or July NPD? Can our neogaf retail guys can tell if there was any real impact on hardware on its release?
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Guy A - PS4 is up and Xbone down
Guy B - Numbers that show PS4 up and Xbone down and he says Guy A is dead wrong.

:D

I guess I never laughed so much in a prediction thread.
 
Z

Zedark

Member
ethomaz said:
Guy A - PS4 is up and Xbone down
Guy B - Numbers that show PS4 up and Xbone down and he says Guy A is dead wrong.

:D

I guess I never laughed so much in a prediction thread.
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I don't get this. Guy A argued that PS4 having better exclusives meant that PS4 was jumping ahead of XB1 this year, and then guy B shows that the increase and decrease are absolutely minimal and not at all indicative of a non-negligible difference, and therefore guy A is wrong in his assessment. Skip to present, and people are laughing at guy B.

Who cares that XB1 is technically down and PS4 technically up? The difference YOY is so minimal that you can't in good faith make an argument based on that.
 
O

onemanasylum

Banned
Zedark said:
I don't get this. Guy A argued that PS4 having better exclusives meant that PS4 was jumping ahead of XB1 this year, and then guy B shows that the increase and decrease are absolutely minimal and not at all indicative of a non-negligible difference, and therefore guy A is wrong in his assessment. Skip to present, and people are laughing at guy B.

Who cares that XB1 is technically down and PS4 technically up? The difference YOY is so minimal that you can't in good faith make an argument based on that.
Click to expand...
Based on what? Neogaf estimates? What about WW? Considering the sales path the X1S was on prior to January, i think it is down..a lot from the momentum X1S had. Agree to disagree....I mean X1S won 4 months in a row NPD, now it's getting doubled nearly every month.....That's not insignificant, but if you think so agree to disagree.

Consoles also generally go down after year 3...Ps4 is up...Exclusives matter quite a bit.

500K diff in 4-5 months in MS strongest territory, when X1S was doing far batter is not insignificant imo. we even have a retail insider talking about the reasons why in this thread.
 
Z

Zedark

Member
onemanasylum said:
based on what? Neogaf estimates? What about WW? Considering the pane the X1S was on prior to January, i think it is down..a lot from the momentum X1S had.
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Based on GAF estimates is the best we are getting, and it is definitely better than no source at all. Look, I know these numbers are not at all certain, but they could just as well but higher for XB1 by the same token. We don't have any other indications towards XB1 or PS4 sales momentum, and as such the GAF estimates are the only thing we have to work with.

With regards to worldwide, the same thing applies: we don't have any indication about console sales for either system, and the only indication for PS4 (its FY forecast) suggests it might be down slightly. There is no argument to be made about PS4 being up YOY or XB1 being down YOY because we have no indication at all for either side, except, of course, the GAF approximations for the USA.

Edit: Read your added thoughts. Haven't followed the retailer comments about XB1 very closely, so I wouldn't be able to comment on that. The comments from Abdiel in this thread don't really indicate to me that XB1 is slow in down, but rather that it isn't finding room to ramp up from its standard level. Of course the GAF estimates are nebulous as well, so we sadly will never get a clear picture of the exact difference between the two years. It's probably best to agree to disagree on the relative weight we a scribent to nebulous GAF estimate compared to nebulous retailer comments.
WillySJ3 said:
560K difference between PS4 & X1 in 5 months is not minimal.
Click to expand...
I am calling PS4 last year vs. PS4 current year and XB1 last year vs. XB1 current year minimal, not PS4 vs. XB1.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Zedark said:
I don't get this. Guy A argued that PS4 having better exclusives meant that PS4 was jumping ahead of XB1 this year, and then guy B shows that the increase and decrease are absolutely minimal and not at all indicative of a non-negligible difference, and therefore guy A is wrong in his assessment. Skip to present, and people are laughing at guy B.

Who cares that XB1 is technically down and PS4 technically up? The difference YOY is so minimal that you can't in good faith make an argument based on that.
Click to expand...
Yeap...

First you should know the Guy B estimates are wrong... the worst case for PS4 this year is UP around 5%... and the best estimate for Xbone is DOWN around 2%. It could be 10% up for PS4 and 10% down for Xbone.

Second the Guy A is in fact right... so how anybody can say he is dead wrong? lol

And you trying to defense control is really another case of :D
 
Z

Zedark

Member
ethomaz said:
Yeap...

First you should know the Guy B estimates are wrong... the worst case for PS4 this year is UP around 5%... and the best estimate for Xbone is DOWN around 2%. It could be 10% up for PS4 and 10% down for Xbone.

Second the Guy A is in fact right... so how anybody can say he is dead wrong? lol
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I didn't know his numbers were referring to a lower bound of estimates. If that's the case, then that is definitely misleading.

That he is in fact right that XB1 is down and PS4 is up was not imo what the response was aiming to disprove. Rather, it seems to me to have been aimed at disproving the notion that this difference was in any way significant or clearly correlating to the exclusives rush of early 2017.
ethomaz said:
And you trying to defense control is really another case of :D
Click to expand...
What a dumb and reductive way of having a discussion.
 
V

Vena

Member
These are rather tiny hypotheticals, I think hanspampel's point stands regardless of how much you want to twist the numbers one way or the other.

You'd have a better case to counter argue against him if the differences weren't *potentially* single digit leans after the X1 faced months of drought vs. one of the strongest first quarters in some time.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Vena said:
These are rather tiny hypotheticals, I think hanspampel's point stands regardless of how much you want to twist the numbers one way or the other.

You'd have a better case to counter argue against him if the differences weren't *potentially* single digit leans after the X1 faced months of drought vs. one of the strongest first quarters in some time.
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My point is you can't call somebody "pretty much wrong" when he is in fact right.

There is no way to spin or twist PS4 is more than 5% up and Xbone is more than 2% down.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
Zedark said:
I didn't know his numbers were referring to a lower bound of estimates. If that's the case, then that is definitely misleading.

That he is in fact right that XB1 is down and PS4 is up was not imo what the response was aiming to disprove. Rather, it seems to me to have been aimed at disproving the notion that this difference was in any way significant or clearly correlating to the exclusives rush of early 2017.

What a dumb and reductive way of having a discussion.
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They don't
The numbers come for this Topic and none are personal estimates of mine:
DD2FKTUWsAIqxMQ.jpg:large

May estimates are from Welfare

And this is our (only) source to double check if we're in line or probably way off:
Finally, the Xbox One and PS4 are both still collectively outperforming their predecessors.

”On a time-aligned basis over each product's first 43 months in market, the combined installed base of Sony's PlayStation 4 and Microsoft's Xbox One now exceeds the combined installed base of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 by 29 percent," said Piscatella.
Click to expand...



we can't change the total of Ps4 and Xb1 combined.
but we can do the numbers with +50k for Ps4 and -50k for Xb1 (error margin of 4.3%)

2016 Jan - May
Ps4: 1394k
Xb1: 894k

2017 Jan - May
Ps4: ~1480k (up 6.1% YoY)
Xb1: ~820k (down 8.3% YoY)

that could (or better should) be considered being up and down to a meaningful degree
still not way down or up, tho
but as i said nothing of that is certain.

add 50k to Xbox One and subtract 50k from Ps4, you getting "Xb1 being up and Ps4 being down" (not really, both would still be basically flat)
2017 Jan - May
Ps4 : ~ 1380k (down 1% YoY)
Xb1: ~ 920k (up 2.9% YoY)
 
O

onemanasylum

Banned
Zedark said:
]I didn't know his numbers were referring to a lower bound of estimates. If that's the case, then that is definitely misleading.[/B]

That he is in fact right that XB1 is down and PS4 is up was not imo what the response was aiming to disprove. Rather, it seems to me to have been aimed at disproving the notion that this difference was in any way significant or clearly correlating to the exclusives rush of early 2017.

What a dumb and reductive way of having a discussion.
Click to expand...

Anything to make MS look better....it's what he does, just ignore him I am/
 
K

kyser73

Member
OMA is technically correct, but hanspampel was fully justified in pulling him up for using 'way down' given the use of estimates and margin of error.

This is why using intensifiers in sales threads should be kept to a minimum.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
[NSW] 240K
[PS4] 260K
[XB1] 110K

kyser73 said:
OMA is technically correct, but hanspampel was fully justified in pulling him up for using 'way down' given the use of estimates and margin of error.

This is why using intensifiers in sales threads should be kept to a minimum.
Click to expand...

drastically good post
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
35616215602_9c4628ce9e_b.jpg
Click to expand...

The beta for Destiny 2 kicks off very soon (July 18, to be exact), but we’re starting the celebration a bit early with the reveal of our Limited Edition Destiny 2 PlayStation 4 Pro Bundle. This bundle will be available alongside the game’s launch on September 6. It includes a Glacier White PS4 Pro with a 1TB HDD, matching DualShock 4 Wireless Controller, and of course, Destiny 2. You’ll also receive a voucher for the digital content pack which gives you access to the Expansion Pass and premium digital content.
This limited edition bundle’s MSRP will be $449.99 USD/$549.99 CAN. You can pre-order yours starting today.
Click to expand...

https://blog.us.playstation.com/2017/07/10/introducing-the-limited-edition-destiny-2-ps4-pro-bundle/
 
A

Abdiel

Member
OrbitalBeard said:
Smart to make that a PS4 Pro bundle. May entice users who purchased the Destiny 1 bundle to upgrade.
Click to expand...

Pff. I'm already torn on preordering it myself. I want the damn White Pro. I wasn't even really all that interested in Destiny 2 this time around (my active group from the first time has kind of splintered) - but I could probably get someone to take my standard pro off my hands for $300 and sell Destiny with the other stuff for 70 and at least only take a minor loss on the system. Argh.
 
S

sirronoh

Member
Abdiel said:
Pff. I'm already torn on preordering it myself. I want the damn White Pro. I wasn't even really all that interested in Destiny 2 this time around (my active group from the first time has kind of splintered) - but I could probably get someone to take my standard pro off my hands for $300 and sell Destiny with the other stuff for 70 and at least only take a minor loss on the system. Argh.
Click to expand...

just-do-it-574x322.jpg
 
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