ethomaz
Banned
That worked well for PS2 to PS3... being a year late was pretty bad for Sony.
June 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, July 11th
DriftingSpirit
Member
It doesn't make sense to cut off PS4 if it will presumably be making them more revenue or profit than it ever has. They'll cut it when they see the money heading downward. That is when they introduce PS5 to start fresh again.
The hardware/technology will be what it is going to be.
The hardware/technology will be what it is going to be.
Shin
Banned
Not in terms of sales though, which is what this thread is about, there's enough games lined up for 2018 and in 4 months we have PSX then E3 next year, moment should carry till 2019, which would make 2020 more viable IMO.
PS4/Pro sells about 10M per year in the US, holidays and all?
If yes then 8M split between Japan/Europe to meet their 18M for FY18?
These threads without numbers are less interesting, but I'll give it a go for once.
[NSW] 240K
[PS4] 325K
[XB1] 190K
But there is no "year late" anymore: MS have abandoned generational refreshes and Nintendo were never in the picture when it comes to next gen refreshes. Sony decides when the next gen starts, and as such they can delay it without significant consequences.
Also, PS3 wasn't a huge step down only because it was a year later than XB360: the price and clumsy reveal were big factors in that process (and in the end PS3 remained ahead of XB360 when looking at worldwide, so it wasn't a terrible situation like Wii -> Wii U was).
DriftingSpirit
Member
Personally, I want PS5 in fall 2020. I'm not ready to move on yet since I got my PS4 early 2015. Another 3 years would be good.
theprodigy
Member
uh, try more like half that (well, a little more than half)
anyway,
[PS4] 250k
[NSW] 200k
[XB1] 150k
ethomaz
Banned
I highly doubt MS abandoned refreshes.
They will have XB2 with exclusive software not compatible with any XB1 hardware.
hanspampel
Banned
now the question is getting tougher
i tend to the former right now
2015 was big with 5.75 million sales and i don't see a 6 million year for Ps4 yet
on the other hand you never know what Sony will do on the pricing side
$199 MSRP with $149 Deals could put the console over that threshold (when the Software for that year will be strong and Ps4 is still the newest Sony console and not already legacy)
i'm probably wrong on this, but i believe the glory old days where consoles selling 6m+ or even 7m per year are gone
so yeah i won't make that call yet.
the only console ever sold that much was the Wii
and even the Ps2 is already 2 million below
Sangetsu-II
Member
I agree 2020 sounds like when things will drop off for PS4 and it's last exclusives will release (Death Stranding and TLOU II) so yeah, PS5 will be announced E3 2020 and release November 2020 I predict.
MatPiscatella
Member
This is a pretty good take.
FWIW, I have 2020 for new HW. But, wouldn't be surprised if I were wrong, because surprises happen.
Bitch Pudding
Member
I suppose Sony is always forecasting PS sales, so they have at least an idea how much units they'll sell in the current and upcoming FY, including the effect of price cuts and discounts.
It is my believe that Sony thinks PS4 sales already peaked WW in FY 2016 (ended March 2017) and that we'll see a continuous decline from now on. Hence the idea to launch a PS5 in 2019. Not only to counter declining sales, but for a variety of other reasons, e.g. with regard to the competition.
Shin
Banned
McMoneyman
Member
Late 2020/Early 2021 is my bet. Think PS4 have a few more years ahead, especially with some of the big and anticipated games a few years away.
I'm hoping for 2019. Life changes fast, and I'd rather have the opportunity to play it.
Shin
Banned
They have the bundles this year, a temporary price cut could go a long way.
From November till December, like they did during E3, no reason for them to lower it permanently yet.
Maybe $50 off Pro, that would be make sense, they are still outselling Xbox on the lower SKU so that doesn't need a cut.
Delay that till 2018 to boost numbers further and they should be able to hit 100m by 2019.
Mass Effect
Member
The PS3's issues had less to do with it launching later and had more to do with its price, poor multiplats as a result of its complex system architecture, and Sony's awful PR at the time.
We'll see, but I'm betting XB2 games will still have to work on Scorpio.
I refuse the idea of announcing PS5, before ND's new IP is announced for PS4.
ethomaz
Banned
Even with these issues if it launched with 360 I believe it could be a generation with PS3 or Wii leading without 360 reaching the success or 80m.
A year head start build 360 base.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Which consoles peaked in their fifth year?
MatPiscatella
Member
Why the confidence that there will be some kind of price cut this year?
Switch and Xbox One X will be the primary competitors for voice in the market, and PS4 already has a price advantage.
Wouldn't more hard and soft bundling make more sense? Keeps the price points higher while also offering more consumer value?
Holiday 2017 really isn't a pricing battle from what I'm seeing.
Since 1995 only PS3, X360 and NDS peaked in year 5 or later. PS3 and X360 both benefited from the Dance/Music and Kinect/Move fads/boosts. NDS was just a slow burn that turned white hot later in its life.
Switch and Xbox One X will be the primary competitors for voice in the market, and PS4 already has a price advantage.
Wouldn't more hard and soft bundling make more sense? Keeps the price points higher while also offering more consumer value?
Holiday 2017 really isn't a pricing battle from what I'm seeing.
Since 1995 only PS3, X360 and NDS peaked in year 5 or later. PS3 and X360 both benefited from the Dance/Music and Kinect/Move fads/boosts. NDS was just a slow burn that turned white hot later in its life.
onemanasylum
Banned
That makes no sense....MS pitfall was price, messaging, had nothing to do with when they launched. Sony will only want to ride this gen until sales fall, which they will.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Just a year difference though. Unless you're hinting at something more serious occurring in your life.
I think ND's new IP will be PS5 only.
astrogamer
Member
[NSW] 230k
[PS4] 240k
[XB1] 195k
[PS4] 240k
[XB1] 195k
I think there's some miscommunication here, because is exactly what my point was: starting a next gen, whenever that may be, brings with it potential reasons for failure, and as a result Sony will want to profit off of the certainty they get from the PS4. MS' case is an illustration of this: they were considered in prime position, but fumbled due to bad decisions and lost their momentum in one fell swoop. This shows that you don't have certainty that you will maintain your lead into a next gen, and therefore it makes sense to ride out the old one for as long as possible.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Thanks. I had a feeling 360 was one, due to Kinect. That peripheral allowed MS to essentially relaunch the system. It really opened up the hardware to a new audience. PS4 isn't going to have a similar scenario in its lifetime.
DS was such a beast. Man.
Going up against Pachter, eh? Let's see who will come out with the analyst victory
Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC
ethomaz
Banned
I think ND's new IP for PS4 was The Last of Us but Sony forced them to launch on PS3.
So I'm with you... new IP only with PS5.
PS1 - Crash
PS2 - Jak
PS3 - Uncharted
PS4 - The Last of Us
PS5 - ???
Mass Effect
Member
Such a great system too.
There is no evidence for this. Developers can't just arbitrarily switch systems, especially between two with wildly different architectures.
mejin
Member
I doubt it. They started development in 2009 if I'm not mistaken. They definitely made this game for PS3.
Maybe a new ip could still come to PS4 and PS5 could have it via BC.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I would be down for a ND new IP at the end of this generation. I just think TLoU PT II will take away too much time from it. They'll probably just push it to PS5 since TLoU will be 2019 and PS5 2020.
Humdinger
Gold Member
Right.
Even though I had forgot about the UK monthly chart had already been revealed (thanks for reminding me), the general point still stands. I know Amazon charts are not a truthful representation of the whole market, but going by those show that Crash has been a lesser seller in the US than the smashing sales it has had in the UK.
It will still have great sales in the coming NPD, especially for a remaster, I'm just thinking it will have a hard time reaching the top with the factors of only 2 days of tracking and the NPD chart being revenue based against it.
Humdinger
Gold Member
slavesnyder
Member
retail would be happy with a temporary price cut for black friday and holiday, but I guess "added value" like 3 games and a second controller will have to do.
after all the big pull will be huge releases like destiny, gran turismo and bubsy.
after all the big pull will be huge releases like destiny, gran turismo and bubsy.
Welfare
Member
My opinion on the whole PS4/PS5 thing. PS5 is a 2020 release with PS4 peaking worldwide in 2018. A 2018 peak was something I never expected to happen at the beginning of the gen but it seems morel likely now.
A 2019 PS5 launch to me makes only slightly more sense than a 2018 launch. Why would Sony launch a new console just a year after a gigantic wave of quality exclusives? Even if PS5 has BC (I think it will) it still doesn't make a lot of sense as PS5 is bound to have very little in the 1st party offering for the first year or two because everything is scheduled for a PS4 launch. Also a console launch should come out like 2-3 years after the peak year.
While waiting for the June NPD, I'm predicating that in the US, PS4 H2 2017 is down ~5% from 2H 2016 resulting in a ~2% drop YoY or ~100K units less. Basically flat and I'm assuming any price drop stays in Black Friday and Christmas sales. The actual price drop to $249/$349 (Pro) won't happen until Spring 2018, along side releases like God of War and Spider Man. I'm also predicting that the 1TB SKU becomes the new $249 SKU with bundles at the same time. With that, I can see 2018 increase by ~10% YoY.
On a worldwide scale, I think the same will be true and after 2018 PS4 sales should slow if Sony doesn't do something like a digital only PS4. A price drop to $199 will only really ensure PS4 doesn't crater after the peak and after PS5 comes out.
With a 2020 launch I also expect XB4 to be a 2021 launch. Don't think MS will get new hardware out in 3 years unless it's a $599 device.
And just to add, while this isn't a tech thread, my prediction for a 2020 PS5 launch is something like 24GB of GDDR6 RAM, ~10-12TF, a 3GHz CPU, a 2TB HDD at $399.
Also something else I was thinking of but forgot to mention was PSVR 2. What is the VR roadmap looking like for successors to PSVR, Oculus, and Vive? I'm thinking Sony wants PS5 and VR 2 to come out at the same time and to make sure there is enough software and the tech is good, that might warrant a 2020 launch.
A 2019 PS5 launch to me makes only slightly more sense than a 2018 launch. Why would Sony launch a new console just a year after a gigantic wave of quality exclusives? Even if PS5 has BC (I think it will) it still doesn't make a lot of sense as PS5 is bound to have very little in the 1st party offering for the first year or two because everything is scheduled for a PS4 launch. Also a console launch should come out like 2-3 years after the peak year.
While waiting for the June NPD, I'm predicating that in the US, PS4 H2 2017 is down ~5% from 2H 2016 resulting in a ~2% drop YoY or ~100K units less. Basically flat and I'm assuming any price drop stays in Black Friday and Christmas sales. The actual price drop to $249/$349 (Pro) won't happen until Spring 2018, along side releases like God of War and Spider Man. I'm also predicting that the 1TB SKU becomes the new $249 SKU with bundles at the same time. With that, I can see 2018 increase by ~10% YoY.
On a worldwide scale, I think the same will be true and after 2018 PS4 sales should slow if Sony doesn't do something like a digital only PS4. A price drop to $199 will only really ensure PS4 doesn't crater after the peak and after PS5 comes out.
With a 2020 launch I also expect XB4 to be a 2021 launch. Don't think MS will get new hardware out in 3 years unless it's a $599 device.
And just to add, while this isn't a tech thread, my prediction for a 2020 PS5 launch is something like 24GB of GDDR6 RAM, ~10-12TF, a 3GHz CPU, a 2TB HDD at $399.
Also something else I was thinking of but forgot to mention was PSVR 2. What is the VR roadmap looking like for successors to PSVR, Oculus, and Vive? I'm thinking Sony wants PS5 and VR 2 to come out at the same time and to make sure there is enough software and the tech is good, that might warrant a 2020 launch.
Yeah thanks
2nd post! Sorry. Don't know how I missed that. :lol
DriftingSpirit
Member
hopefully nintendo will give arms numbers and a Zelda/MK update.
I doubt they'll mention switch since stock is bad
I think they might mention Switch numbers if they have the lead, like they did in April, announcing the not very large 280k sales number. ARMS could happen if it did impressive numbers, but BOTW and MK8D will probably get a "selling steadily/strongly" at best.
Sangetsu-II
Member
If we even get press...last month we got nothing.
MatPiscatella
Member
Media release this month is scheduled for next Thursday the 20th.
No physical out today, have a bit of a delay. So I wouldn't expect anything from 1st parties.
Huh?
No physical out today, have a bit of a delay. So I wouldn't expect anything from 1st parties.
Huh?
Down? Really? I'm expecting at least 5% up. Destiny 2, CoD WW2, SW BF 2 & GTS will move tons of units this fall.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Sorry, I meant any actual information on physical release from media outlets like who won and stuff.
Of course physical release will be given out to all subscribers, lol. It's just we on NeoGaf will be left with nothing, if it's like last month.
MatPiscatella
Member
Welfare's forecasting is always excellent. I have it down a more conservative -6% for the year, but wouldn't be surprised at all if Welfare ends up closer than me at this point.
Hardware
When it comes to hardware sales, the story is still Nintendo — even though PlayStation 4 was the No. 1 selling console of the month.
"Hardware spending grew 7 percent compared to May 2016, to $147 million," said Piscatella. "Nintendo Switch continues to be the primary catalyst for hardware spending gains, as it has since launching in March 2017."
The Switch has filled in a gap in the market, and it is serving as both a viable third console and a replacement for the 3DS and Vita's portable market.
"Year to date, hardware spending has grown 18 percent as gains in console spending have offset declines in portable," said Piscatella.
Finally, the Xbox One and PS4 are both still collectively outperforming their predecessors.
"On a time-aligned basis over each product's first 43 months in market, the combined installed base of Sony's PlayStation 4 and Microsoft's Xbox One now exceeds the combined installed base of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 by 29 percent," said Piscatella.
Hardware
When it comes to hardware sales, the story is still Nintendo — even though PlayStation 4 was the No. 1 selling console of the month.
"Hardware spending grew 7 percent compared to May 2016, to $147 million," said Piscatella. "Nintendo Switch continues to be the primary catalyst for hardware spending gains, as it has since launching in March 2017."
The Switch has filled in a gap in the market, and it is serving as both a viable third console and a replacement for the 3DS and Vita's portable market.
"Year to date, hardware spending has grown 18 percent as gains in console spending have offset declines in portable," said Piscatella.
Finally, the Xbox One and PS4 are both still collectively outperforming their predecessors.
"On a time-aligned basis over each product's first 43 months in market, the combined installed base of Sony's PlayStation 4 and Microsoft's Xbox One now exceeds the combined installed base of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 by 29 percent," said Piscatella.