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June 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, July 11th

O

onemanasylum

Banned
MatPiscatella said:
Welfare's forecasting is always excellent. I have it down a more conservative -6% for the year, but wouldn't be surprised at all if Welfare ends up closer than me at this point.



Hardware

When it comes to hardware sales, the story is still Nintendo — even though PlayStation 4 was the No. 1 selling console of the month.

“Hardware spending grew 7 percent compared to May 2016, to $147 million,” said Piscatella. “Nintendo Switch continues to be the primary catalyst for hardware spending gains, as it has since launching in March 2017.”

The Switch has filled in a gap in the market, and it is serving as both a viable third console and a replacement for the 3DS and Vita’s portable market.

“Year to date, hardware spending has grown 18 percent as gains in console spending have offset declines in portable,” said Piscatella.

Finally, the Xbox One and PS4 are both still collectively outperforming their predecessors.

“On a time-aligned basis over each product’s first 43 months in market, the combined installed base of Sony’s PlayStation 4 and Microsoft’s Xbox One now exceeds the combined installed base of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 by 29 percent,” said Piscatella.
Click to expand...

It's awesome GAF has a real NPD celeb in our midst, much needed and appreciated.
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
MatPiscatella said:
Welfare's forecasting is always excellent. I have it down a more conservative -6% for the year, but wouldn't be surprised at all if Welfare ends up closer than me at this point.



Hardware

When it comes to hardware sales, the story is still Nintendo — even though PlayStation 4 was the No. 1 selling console of the month.

”Hardware spending grew 7 percent compared to May 2016, to $147 million," said Piscatella. ”Nintendo Switch continues to be the primary catalyst for hardware spending gains, as it has since launching in March 2017."

The Switch has filled in a gap in the market, and it is serving as both a viable third console and a replacement for the 3DS and Vita's portable market.

”Year to date, hardware spending has grown 18 percent as gains in console spending have offset declines in portable," said Piscatella.

Finally, the Xbox One and PS4 are both still collectively outperforming their predecessors.

”On a time-aligned basis over each product's first 43 months in market, the combined installed base of Sony's PlayStation 4 and Microsoft's Xbox One now exceeds the combined installed base of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 by 29 percent," said Piscatella.
Click to expand...

I think there was a little miscommunication here, with me and the other guy, haha. Let's just leave it at that. Appreciate you being here.
 
D

donny2112

Member
So does "a bit of a delay" actually mean a week with physical and physical+digital coming out on same day or would the physical still come out earlier (and probable tweets about top system for the month come out earlier, too)?
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule said:
I am assuming one of the reasons MatPiscatella is here is to make sure creamsugar doesn't come back?
Click to expand...

Cream bailed way before I showed up. But, hey, nice conspiracy theory you got there.

DomsPlaying said:
Thanks bud. Wasn't sure if it was this week or next, with your fancy new schedule and all :-D
Click to expand...

Heh, working on ways of getting the physical and digital/media releases closer. Probably need a few more months but we'll get there.

Future media dates: 7/20, 8/17, 9/14, 10/19, 11/16, 12/14, 1/18

donny2112 said:
So does "a bit of a delay" actually mean a week with physical and physical+digital coming out on same day or would the physical still come out earlier (and probable tweets about top system for the month come out earlier, too)?
Click to expand...

Physical will still be earlier. Should only be a day or two delay.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
WillySJ3 said:
Down? Really? I'm expecting at least 5% up. Destiny 2, CoD WW2, SW BF 2 & GTS will move tons of units this fall.
Click to expand...
My expectation is for Q3 to be up every month and Q4 down every month. I'm thinking there won't be a price drop in September/October as Sony will focus on premium bundles and with no new hardware launches like VR or Pro this holiday there is less chance for PS4 to be up from 2016. Remember that Q4 2016 performed worse than Q4 2015 despite a $299 price drop and new hardware, so a holiday season with no new hardware and general holiday sales even with better software should still see a decrease from last year. My current expectation for Q4 is October ~230K, November ~1.1M, and December ~1.3M.

Also, I'd like to retract my previous ~2% decrease and change it a ~4% drop. I thought December could be closer to 1.4M but I couldn't see a scenario where November is 1.1M and December see a 300K increase.
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Physical data will release to clients Monday. If any PR comes out, it'll be then. Shouldn't have an impact on the Thursday media release, but if it does I'll let you know.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
If you follow the last MS reports you will know they won't share anything besides the MAU.

It is the most useless report (in terms of numbers) of the three big... you can't even say if XB1 is going good or bad.
 
G

gamz

Member
ethomaz said:
If you follow the last MS reports you will know they won't share anything besides the MAU.

It is the most useless report (in terms of numbers) of the three big... you can't even say if XB1 is going good or bad.
Click to expand...

Sure you can. They report earnings.
 
W

watdaeff4

Member
gamz said:
MS reports earnings after the market on Thursday. At least we'll know how well Xbox is doing.
Click to expand...

Disagree with your second sentence


Welfare said:
I think MS said something about XB1 hardware last FY. We could hear something like that if FY 2017 was higher than FY 2016.
Click to expand...
We will hear about Player engagement stats, and some other line items. Would be shocked if they told numbers. And that's okay, that's how the industry is heading
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
I think MS said something about XB1 hardware last FY. We could hear something like that if FY 2017 was higher than FY 2016.
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
Physical Release and Top 20 should really be done on the same day honestly, being left in limbo is so dumb these days in the digital age.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
Ubisoft continues to fire on all cylinders. Even in a quarter in which the publisher has nothing new on the market, its total sales jumped up 45.2% to €202.1 million, with digital increasing 55% to €162.4 million. The company's digital focus is growing, and Ubisoft noted that digital accounted for more than 80% of its total revenues during the first quarter (up from 75% of the total during last year's Q1). With no major releases, back catalog sales drove 94% of the company's sales total, which Ubisoft emphasized is a sign of the recurring investment profile from its customers. The company also proudly mentioned that Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Wildlands continues to be the industry's top seller since the start of 2017.
Click to expand...

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/article...ercent-digital
 
N

noobie

Banned
Following numbers are circulating on site not to be named. Take with spoon full of salt

June hardware numbers
PS4: 382k, +63% y/y
Switch: 216k
XB1: 153k, -28% y/y

PS4 huge month. YTD is +13% over 2016
Switch rebound from May, more supply coming with Splatoon so should be ramping from here
Xbox poor, YTD -11% over 2016
 
Trogdor1123

Trogdor1123

Member
noobie said:
Following numbers are circulating on site not to be named. Take with spoon full of salt

June hardware numbers
PS4: 382k, +63% y/y
Switch: 216k
XB1: 153k, -28% y/y

PS4 huge month. YTD is +13% over 2016
Switch rebound from May, more supply coming with Splatoon so should be ramping from here
Xbox poor, YTD -11% over 2016
Click to expand...
What would drive the ps4 sales like that?
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
noobie said:
Following numbers are circulating on site not to be named. Take with spoon full of salt

June hardware numbers
PS4: 382k, +63% y/y
Switch: 216k
XB1: 153k, -28% y/y

PS4 huge month. YTD is +13% over 2016
Switch rebound from May, more supply coming with Splatoon so should be ramping from here
Xbox poor, YTD -11% over 2016
Click to expand...
Oh that is a juicy leak.

PS4
Jan: 210,665
Feb: 398,407
Mar: 396,726
Apr: 206,247
May: 187,182
Jun: 381,196

XB1
Jan: 157,545
Feb: 215,418
Mar: 243,514
Apr: 109,950
May: 109,130
Jun: 153,389

Switch
Mar: 910,545
Apr: 280,897
May: 165,038
Jun: 215,582

Thanks go to jal356
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
2016

PS4
Jan: 228,504
Feb: 404,915
Mar: 330,137
Apr: 174,771
May: 207,359
Jun: 234,477
Jul: 161,199
Aug: 159,973
Sep: 285,287
Oct: 235,155
Nov: 1,111,580
Dec: 1,567,851

XB1
Jan: 131,145
Feb: 248,213
Mar: 241,526
Apr: 167,631
May: 107,083
Jun: 211,888
Jul: 171,123
Aug: 274,783
Sep: 332,829
Oct: 329,014
Nov: 1,006,784
Dec: 1,511,013

Whoever this guy is probably just got his friend in trouble. Exact data like this is very easy to trace back, but hey this data is amazing! So much to discuss with actual data, like XB1 really performing terribly despite a strong 2H 2016 with the 1S, Switch stock really being bad in May, and PS4 seeing a huge resurgence over last year. I could go more in detail later today.
 
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