Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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Hell, I'll admit I was one of them to an extent, but please be easy on me: who could have known Phil would be this fucking inept at being a leader?

*raises hand*

Been saying the guy is incompetent for ages. Look at the state of first party and brand desirability.

Anybody can buy studios or a publisher if given billions on top of billions. Anybody can run a loss leader business when they have license to burn through cash.

Dude thought buddying up to games media was a silver bullet. Went out there and cozied up to internet fanboy warriors and ran an astroturfing campaign. Meanwhile Xbox is looking at getting outsold at minimum 2:1.

Peter Moore was the guy. Phil Spencer is a parody. He actually looked at Halo Infinite before the reveal and thought "they are going to go ape shit over this!" , and well he was kinda right.
 
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So another lie from Phil Spencer. They guy said on an interview it was really just Sony...

Phils a habitual liar and blatant hypocrite. You'll be digging for hours though all his bullshit. Remember when sony and Nintendo weren't microsofts competition? Such an easy issue to resolve too. Just stop talking! Another thing to learn from Sony and Nintendo. Speak only when required.
 
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New Microsoft filing


Haven't gone through it but alot of random articles/sony slides in it to try and justify the subpoena.

Still haven't seen the judge making any orders.

I'm reading through a few pages ATM, probably over the next couple days or whatever, but already came across something kind of interesting:

SIE does not contest these custodians' relevance, resting instead on assertions of burden. Given SIE's central role, that purported burden does not warrant a motion to quash. SIE is not just any other third party; it is a first party among third parties. Nonetheless, Microsoft has attempted to assuage SIE's concerns. Microsoft has allowed SIE to use Technology Assisted Review ("TAR"), which means that SIE does not need to manually review most documents for responsiveness. And Microsoft has made compromises to decrease SIE's privilege review, such as limiting the McCurdy review to external communications.

Some of the things MS requested through the subpoena were ridiculous still IMO, but it seems like they want Sony to provide the info to a third-party source to whom Microsoft would then have the information provided from? Guess they feel having a third party middleman absolves some of the main worries about potentially sensitive information getting out in some way that MS could use against Sony (in terms of certain contracts or plans leaking out to the public way ahead of time).

I mean, in theory that would work, but the third-party acting as middleman would have to be someone not chosen by Microsoft or Sony, I feel. So who would choose who that external party actually is? FWIW it seems like they're only doing that for the McCurdy documents, not the Lin Tao or Hideaki Nishino documents.

SIE's burden arguments ring particularly hollow given Microsoft's agreement to limit review of McCurdy's files to external communications. In Forth v. Walgreen Co., the plaintiff sought to compel a third-party to produce documents from an in-house attorney. 2020 WL 4569501 (D.R.I. Aug. 7, 2020). In granting that motion, the Court explained that "[t]he usual burden of combing the production set for privilege is largely eliminated by [p]laintiffs' agreement to add search terms . . . so that only third-party communications . . . will be turned up by the searches." Id. at *3; see also Le v. Zuffa, LLC, No. 2:15-cv-01045 (D. Nev. Dec. 8, 2015) (ECF 207) (burden of privilege review limited by search methodology). The same is true here.

Again here is Microsoft saying they'd limit the McCurdy documents to an external third-party to review, I guess the assumption being that any sensitive details non-pertinent to the case would be omitted by the third-party whenever Microsoft requests the other information. I guess there is nothing wrong with this in concept but, again, who gets to decide on the external third-party to act as the middleman? And why aren't Microsoft willing to do this with Lin Tao or Hideaki Nishino reviews, too? I'm pretty sure there are sensitive non-pertinent data in their documents that Microsoft has no reason to have access to; just have a third-party source handle that and Microsoft can request the pertinent info. Easy peasy.

But we also saw some of the leaked demands from Microsoft in the earlier subpoenas and, I don't think getting info on content deals 11 years out or executive performance reviews is necessarily relevant to test out Sony's claims of potential negative financial impacts the deal would have on their platform & brand.

Requests 14(d) and 19 are in dispute only to the extent that Microsoft seeks a targeted pull of specific documents—valuations, board documents, and regulatory submissions—related to SIE's cloud-gaming acquisitions of Gaikai in 2012 and OnLive in 2015. Ex. H; Ex. I. Cloud gaming allows gamers to stream games without downloading the games to a device. The Commission alleges that cloud-gaming services comprise a relevant market and Microsoft will foreclose cloud-streaming services from licensing Activision's content. Compl. ¶¶ 83–91, 98. Providing targeted information about SIE's own cloud-gaming efforts is relevant to assessing the viability of that claim and is not unduly burdensome.

TBF, has Microsoft provided any valuation documents in relation to Game Pass & xCloud with the FTC and CMA? I think they had the figures from the CADE court documents, but they didn't isolate Game Pass or xCloud amounts out of them.

The thing is, what would Microsoft really want with Gaikai & OnLive information? The amounts Sony paid for them? I think that is already public information. The revenue? They've given PSNow revenue up until they folded it into PS+, the revenue amounts were pretty low for the service all around. The costs to operate the service? Maybe they want to extrapolate running costs for PS+ based off of that?

Going off the last line makes it sound like Microsoft wants to say they wouldn't withhold content from PS+ or its cloud streaming functionality because it isn't a relevant threat or competitor to xCloud. But xCloud isn't available on its own; you have to get Game Pass to get xCloud, and PSNow doesn't exist on its own anymore. So wouldn't MS's decision to limit content available to other subscription services be based on factoring Game Pass and therefore, in Sony's case, PS+, into that equation? It would because as part of the 10-year deal they proposed they specifically said they'd let Sony put COD into PlayStation Plus, not their own cloud service, because Sony doesn't have an individual, separate cloud streaming service.

Kind of feels like on this point Microsoft are conflating the argument; IIRC it was always about subscription gaming services, not merely cloud-streaming services. The only company somewhat relevant in these proceedings with a service focused on cloud streaming near exclusively, that's actually still around today, is Nvidia. Stadia's dead.

---

Anyway, those are just some thoughts on the little I've read.
 
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Hey, man, I'm sure there are a ton of armchair analysts who have misjudged the entire thing.

Hell, I'll admit I was one of them to an extent, but please be easy on me: who could have known Phil would be this fucking inept at being a leader? Every time he opened his mouth and spoke about Sony, I swear to God the probability of it going through dropped 10%.

All I'm saying is that Khan isn't without her issues here. And they're readily apparent to anyone with 10 minutes and access to Google.

:messenger_tears_of_joy: I'm armchair analysing right with you. Just pointing to the "sauce" in that specific proverbial pot.

I think you credit Ree which too much influence. They're puppets too, just regurgitating what they get from various media sources which in turn are funded by the same corporations who stand to gain from a toothless set of government agencies.

The war between public and vested interests stretches way beyond this acquisition - this is just a battleground right now.

I'm on era and saw the evolution of people all but promising the deal would sail morph into hate for a woman who happens to be a regulator, with a different viewpoint to theirs. Era's prevailing wisdom right up until the CMA was that Microsoft should be able to purchase every publisher until they alone control the market. As for the larger fight playing out, I totally agree.

*raises hand*

Been saying the guy is incompetent for ages. Look at the state of first party and brand desirability.

Anybody can buy studios or a publisher if given billions on top of billions. Anybody can run a loss leader business when they have license to burn through cash.

Dude thought buddying up to games media was a silver bullet. Went out there and cozied up to internet fanboy warriors and ran an astroturfing campaign. Meanwhile Xbox is looking at getting outsold at minimum 2:1.

Peter Moore was the guy. Phil Spencer is a parody. He actually looked at Halo Infinite before the reveal and thought "they are going to go ape shit over this!" , and well he was kinda right.

This is by far his worst PR piece.


A year ago he was on a PR tour claiming ownership of the deal. Note the wording and self praise...

"Something well beyond anything I've ever done."

Which means that 3 billion payout if the deal falls through, is something he has to take ownership of. If it fails, he wont be fired immediately but his time at XBOX will be up. Ironically, the delay between the 3 billion payout to Activision and Phil Spencer leaving will be down to PR timing.
 
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I thought the decision either way it goes will be done by mid 2023. I think Microsoft remedies, complaince will decide this case one way or the other.
This specific board (CMA) has already released its preliminary findings and outlined what it wants to see.

What was unexpected now that we are entering the behavioral remedies negotiation phase was that someone else besides Sony would go in on this, and now we know two other groups did.

Final decision is to be made in early April by CMA, but a decision on whether or not Behavioral Remedies that're proposed is to be made in March.
 
Which means that 3 billion payout if the deal falls through, is something he has to take ownership of. If it fails, he wont be fired immediately but his time at XBOX will be up. Ironically, the delay between the 3 billion payout to Activision and Phil Spencer leaving will be down to PR timing.

I hope nobody creates an avatar bet thread for that.

:messenger_neutral:
 
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So another lie from Phil Spencer. They guy said on an interview it was really just Sony...

Interesting, because in the recent document they open with this...

Sony Interactive Entertainment LLC ("SIE") is at the heart of this case.

Maybe they just mean "in the US" as the document in question is with the FTC but...that's still a hell of a way to try phrase it. Maybe Sony are the most vocal at this point in opposition of the deal, and that'd make some sense, but it's been known for a while now it's not JUST Sony who take objections to the deal.

I blame Twitter console warriors and even people on forums centering it mostly on COD and PlayStation. But it was never just Sony who had issues with the acquisition, and ramifications are far-reaching way beyond just PlayStation or even just the gaming industry.

Anyway, I gotta bail. Hope to have some time to jump back in tonight, I'm prob just gonna keep reading other comments and that document. This thread seems to move super fast (with 50% memes 😄)
 
*raises hand*

Been saying the guy is incompetent for ages. Look at the state of first party and brand desirability.

Anybody can buy studios or a publisher if given billions on top of billions. Anybody can run a loss leader business when they have license to burn through cash.

Dude thought buddying up to games media was a silver bullet. Went out there and cozied up to internet fanboy warriors and ran an astroturfing campaign. Meanwhile Xbox is looking at getting outsold at minimum 2:1.

Peter Moore was the guy. Phil Spencer is a parody. He actually looked at Halo Infinite before the reveal and thought "they are going to go ape shit over this!" , and well he was kinda right.

As a businessman he's clearly a really poor leader.
His lies and hypocrisy are finally turning back against him like a boomerang.
I wonder what's going to happen when/if the Activision deal is blocked and the company will have to lose 3 billions in the process.
Usually executives don't survive these things, but if he's become buddy buddy with Nadella he might be able to survive the blow although I doubt he will have actual decisional power over important stuff after this.
 
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Look. I'd love the deal to go through. That's the selfishness in me as a game pass subscriber. If it doesn't go through, I doubt I'll lose any sleep. And if it does keep me up, I'll just roll over and give my wife a sweet meat poke.
 
As a businessman he's clearly a really poor leader.
His lies and hypocrisy are finally turning back against him like a boomerang.
I wonder what's going to happen when/if the Activision deal is blocked and the company will have to lose 3 billions in the process.
Usually executives don't survive these things, but if he's become buddy buddy with Nadella he might be able to survive the blow although I doubt he will have actual decisional power over important stuff after this.
They'll replace him with the half goat guy from the tech video.
 
Look. I'd love the deal to go through. That's the selfishness in me as a game pass subscriber. If it doesn't go through, I doubt I'll lose any sleep. And if it does keep me up, I'll just roll over and give my wife a sweet meat poke.
Ah hate fucking the missus in the name of Sony. I've not done that since Joel died.
 
As a businessman he's clearly a really poor leader.
His lies and hypocrisy are finally turning back against him like a boomerang.
I wonder what's going to happen when/if the Activision deal is blocked and the company will have to lose 3 billions in the process.
Usually executives don't survive these things, but if he's become buddy buddy with Nadella he might be able to survive the blow although I doubt he will have actual decisional power over important stuff after this.
He is 100% gone when this deal fails. The board will oust his ass. They will pretend he is taking his leave to be a family man like Bonnie Ross.
 
SIE has unleashed its executives and high-priced economists to petition the Commission, as well as regulators around the world, to block the transaction.
Finally see the first glimpse of a failure of strategy on Sony's part.

They should have "unleashed its executives and high-priced hookers to petition the Commission, as well as regulators around the world, to block the transaction".
That would have been more effective.
 
Finally see the first glimpse of a failure of strategy on Sony's part.

They should have "unleashed its executives and high-priced hookers to petition the Commission, as well as regulators around the world, to block the transaction".
That would have been more effective.

They could also have paid bribes like Microsoft does.
 
At purple a new rumor from a mistery now deleted Tweet is that Sony sent people to MS hq. Anybody was there before the tweet was removed? who tweeted what is going on is this made up lmao

Edit: apparently based on some random article, jeez people really out there praying
 
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At purple a new rumor from a mistery now deleted Tweet is that Sony sent people to MS hq. Anybody was there before the tweet was removed? who tweeted what is going on is this made up lmao
Something to do with sony and MS coming to a resolution for cod. Which is bizzarre, this deal is on the high chance of either getting blocked or end up MS having to let go of cod, why would sony start negotiating now?

I'm sure sony know more then anyone of us that the if there is any chance of CMA accepting behavioral remedies it will be harsh and more then that 10 year deal. These guys are coping hard right now and looking for any positive news.
 
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Who is this guy and why did he write a non paid college thesis in support of the deal: https://superjoost.substack.com/p/bigger-means-different

For these three it is critical that Sony and Microsoft come to an agreement on the Call of Duty license. They will block the deal without it. However, after initially fighting tooth and nail to defend its walled garden business model, Sony has softened its tone or at least stopped slinging mud. It will alsobe in the Japanese console maker's interest to strike a deal. Following several proposed divestiture scenarios from the CMA, Sony potentially faces a stand-alone entity controlling the precious franchise. Keeping in mind that the existing license is set to expire in 2024, it is unlikely, however, that this spin-off company will offer Sony a better deal than Microsoft.

Everyone involved in this deal is starting to feel the burn and it is pushing all of them to arrive at a resolution.

What's next

One scenario that may allow the deal to go through and satisfy everyone is a combination of two elements:

  1. an agreement between Sony and Microsoft around the Call of Duty license, as a behavioral remedy, and
  2. the divestiture of Blizzard to satisfy regulators as a structural remedy.


Uh… what? Lol
 
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