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[Heisenberg007]

the U turn by the CMA shows that they are not doing their job

instead of correcting their mistakes they just said oh we have bad calculations so let's throw everything, wich doesn't make sense

anyway whatever they decide microsoft will appeal but i don't think sony will

Yeah, I don't mind them correcting their mistakes, but they backtracked on things that they themselves mentioned in their PF (outside of the scope of the mistakes they made), and that doesn't make any logical sense.

Also, Sony pointed out a lot of other mistakes that the CMA made in the revised stance, and we haven't heard any response from the CMA on that. I don't think the CMA has even acknowledged Sony's response and the issues they identified.

 

[X-Wing]

Yeah, I don't mind them correcting their mistakes, but they backtracked on things that they themselves mentioned in their PF (outside of the scope of the mistakes they made), and that doesn't make any logical sense.

Also, Sony pointed out a lot of other mistakes that the CMA made in the revised stance, and we haven't heard any response from the CMA on that. I don't think the CMA has even acknowledged Sony's response and the issues they identified.

A result of Microsoft “lobbying” the CMA and UK Government?

 

[adamsapple]

A result of Microsoft “lobbying” the CMA and UK Government?

Of course, there couldn't be any other reason at all.

 

[Banjo64]

So we're in the endgame now, right? 3 days to ago, if I recall correctly?

Any new news or signs that are pointing to which way the decision will sway? (after the last update by the CMA, I'm still on the 80/20 bandwagon in favor of approval).

What's everybody's latest view?

I think the CMA might pass it now. The calculation error was bad enough, but to completely change tune on the infrastructure/cloud concerns would leave their already shot reputation in tatters.

 

[reksveks]

the U turn by the CMA shows that they are not doing their job

instead of correcting their mistakes they just said oh we have bad calculations so let's throw everything, wich doesn't make sense

anyway whatever they decide microsoft will appeal but i don't think sony will

They literally did not do that, they have calculations which are their own based off their own assumptions and method. Sony and MS have their own.

 

[feynoob]

drganon is keeping up our old friends tradition. Keep up the good work.

 

[drganon]

drganon is keeping up our old friends tradition. Keep up the good work.



 

[Banjo64]

True. Regarding Zenimax, I was sure it's won't move the needle for Xbox. And it didn't. I can't say the same for ABK. It may move the needle or it may not. It's hard to predict.

They haven’t released a Doom, TES or Fallout yet. That’s why.

 

[feynoob]

My man. You know how to make us laugh.

 

[adamsapple]

drganon is keeping up our old friends tradition. Keep up the good work.

The tassels and face paint are different but the spirit is the same.

 

[drganon]

My man. You know how to make us laugh.

Don't worry, you make us laugh too.

 

[adamsapple]

They haven’t released a Doom, TES or Fallout yet. That’s why.

Or a Starfield. So far they've only released one exclusive game post acquisition and that was also shadow dropped.

 

[feynoob]

Don't worry, you make us laugh too.

I am glad you enjoy it. Some people just act like grumpy.

 

[Banjo64]

Or a Starfield. So far they've only released one exclusive game post acquisition and that was also shadow dropped.

Exactly.

Which makes Microsoft’s arguments about current market share laughable.

 

[feynoob]

Which makes Microsoft’s arguments about current market share laughable.

Their exclusives isnt going to help their market share.
They need more than exclusives for that. And focus more on marketing.
Xbox marketing is shit, since you mostly see gamepass.

 

[Ozriel]

At that point, the CMA had said that this deal will harm and the only the two options left were divestment or prohibition. So people calling that it'll be blocked was the only logical guess at that point.

You’ve shared this multiple times in the past, but that’s not an accurate summary of the CMA’s position.

Behavioral remedies were never ruled out.

 

[adamsapple]

You’ve shared this multiple times in the past, but that’s not an accurate summary of the CMA’s position.

Behavioral remedies were never ruled out.

Yep. It was less the "only option" and more the "only acceptable option" for a subset. But, fortunate or unfortunately per perspective, the CMA revised their findings and came to different conclusions, which are no doubt more favorable to MS than they were before.

 

[Ozriel]

Their exclusives isnt going to help their market share.
They need more than exclusives for that. And focus more on marketing.
Xbox marketing is shit, since you mostly see gamepass.

Exclusives and games don’t sell consoles anymore?

And yes, they need to work on their marketing. But they’ll push big AAA games.

 

[feynoob]

Exclusives and games don’t sell consoles anymore?

They sell, but not at the same rate as 3rd party games.
Exclusive games account 20% of the platform, aside of nintendo consoles.

 

[Heisenberg007]

They haven’t released a Doom, TES or Fallout yet. That’s why.

True. But by the time they release those games, the industry will be in a very different state. And PS audience will not abandon PS to play those games I think. COD, on the other hand, is a different beast.

Starfield will be a good litmus test for Xbox/Zenimax.

 

[X-Wing]

Of course, there couldn't be any other reason at all.

Sure that there are plenty of other reasons possible. But Microsoft has been caught paying bribes before so...

 

[Heisenberg007]

I think the CMA might pass it now. The calculation error was bad enough, but to completely change tune on the infrastructure/cloud concerns would leave their already shot reputation in tatters.

Yeah, that's what I'm interested in seeing, like what the CMA will do.

The console SLC isn't valid anymore, fine. Let's move on. But what about Cloud?

• The CMA said that behavioral remedies would not work in the cloud gaming market,
• MS also hasn't signed anything with Google or Meta (one of the four main cloud competitors in the market, as identified by the CMA itself),
• The deals that MS has signed are for 10 years only, while the CMA was suggesting divestment because 10 years for them was not enough, and
• xCloud has a 70% market share in the cloud gaming market, according to the CMA. If they dropped the console SLC because PS was the leader there, how would they ignore the Cloud SLC when Microsoft itself has a 70% market share?

I think these 4 points are super important, and the CMA will have to answer them clearly if they are to approve the acquisition.

 

[reksveks]

Exactly.

Which makes Microsoft’s arguments about current market share laughable.

The problem is you would need to question users on those games being exclusive and how many would switch as well, otherwise it's all unfounded speculation. I suspect its a really small incremental difference.

I am with you though that the big Zenimax IP haven't yet made a difference and they will be significantly more impactful than the current releases.

Their exclusives isnt going to help their market share.
They need more than exclusives for that. And focus more on marketing.
Xbox marketing is shit, since you mostly see gamepass.

They need both, exclusives and marketing.

To clarify, I was asking if there has been any evidence or news or hint since that CMA's reversal of console SLC that could inform us what decision the CMA is more likely to make.

The only possible hint is from the equityreport article which suggested that they were trying to make it harder for a third party to appeal. It's very speculative.

 

[feynoob]

True. But by the time they release those games, the industry will be in a very different state. And PS audience will not abandon PS to play those games I think. COD, on the other hand, is a different beast.

Starfield will be a good litmus test for Xbox/Zenimax.

Those games still have huge audience. No matter the time, they will still be there, when those games drop.
Certain games dont age that much.

 

[Bernoulli]

Yeah, that's what I'm interested in seeing, like what the CMA will do.

The console SLC isn't valid anymore, fine. Let's move on. But what about Cloud?

• The CMA said that behavioral remedies would not work in the cloud gaming market,
• MS also hasn't signed anything with Google or Meta (one of the four main cloud competitors in the market, as identified by the CMA itself),
• The deals that MS has signed are for 10 years only, while the CMA was suggesting divestment because 10 years for them was not enough, and
• xCloud has a 70% market share in the cloud gaming market, according to the CMA. If they dropped the console SLC because PS was the leader there, how would they ignore the Cloud SLC when Microsoft itself has a 70% market share?

I think these 4 points are super important, and the CMA will have to answer them clearly if they are to approve the acquisition.

bigger reputation hit if there is an appeal about why instead of doing the calculations again they just trew everything

 

[C2brixx]

Yeah, that's what I'm interested in seeing, like what the CMA will do.

The console SLC isn't valid anymore, fine. Let's move on. But what about Cloud?

• The CMA said that behavioral remedies would not work in the cloud gaming market,
• MS also hasn't signed anything with Google or Meta (one of the four main cloud competitors in the market, as identified by the CMA itself),
• The deals that MS has signed are for 10 years only, while the CMA was suggesting divestment because 10 years for them was not enough, and
• xCloud has a 70% market share in the cloud gaming market, according to the CMA. If they dropped the console SLC because PS was the leader there, how would they ignore the Cloud SLC when Microsoft itself has a 70% market share?

I think these 4 points are super important, and the CMA will have to answer them clearly if they are to approve the acquisition.

Console SLC was the big issue. Microsoft is not going to let this deal fail because of cloud streaming. That 70% could market share is because of Gamepass not xCloud. They would forego streaming of Activision games in the short term if that ended up being the sticking point. Currently not ever game on Gamepass can be streamed so it wouldn't be that big of a deal.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Console SLC was the big issue. Microsoft is not going to let this deal fail because of cloud streaming. That 70% could market share is because of Gamepass not xCloud. They would forego streaming of Activision games in the short term if that ended up being the sticking point. Currently not ever game on Gamepass can be streamed so it wouldn't be that big of a deal.

The way the CMA framed it, Cloud gaming and SLC was the bigger issue for them.

And the CMA did not recognize Game Pass as a separate entity/market. So they measure the Cloud market dominance via xCloud (because they also measured Sony's presence via PS Plus, so it's the same thing).

 

[DarkMage619]

Kind of weak, dude. Instead of having a go at me, maybe you should be asking yourself why my comment (which was not directed at you) bothered you so much. Although, to be frank, I have zero hope you'll have the introspection required to examine it.

Go at you? Weren't you the one making personal claims about love of companies and other nonsense simply because I pushed back on the notion that Lina Khan was doing a good job? That is the definition of weak. It doesn't matter if you were talking about me specifically or not. I don't think Lina Khan is doing a good job and provided numerous examples why I believe that.

I also did so without making any commentary about her gender or appearance which are strawmen used against people who had valid criticisms against her terrible tenure. Most complaints aren't even necessarily about this specific deal, numerous companies have complained and they also had valid issues. Numerous career lawyers have also quit along with board members. But I suppose they left because they didn't like that she was female right?

You can continue to take the brave stance and stand with Lina, (which of course has nothing to do with the ABK deal heh), but you will have to deal with people disagreeing with you about it. She has done a terrible job and is hurting the organization. Perhaps you need some introspection.

The way the CMA framed it, Cloud gaming and SLC was the bigger issue for them.

And the CMA did not recognize Game Pass as a separate entity/market. So they measure the Cloud market dominance via xCloud (because they also measured Sony's presence via PS Plus, so it's the same thing).

I'd love to see how cloud gaming on Xbox could be an issue when Game pass is not, specifically since you can't even access cloud gaming without Game pass ultimate. You can't even cloud play games on Xbox that aren't in Game pass at all. Seems pretty confusing to me. This is certainly something that should be remedied with reasonable behavioral concessions regardless.

 

[Chukhopops]

It’s going to be a lot easier now to get separate App Stores on iOS, at least in EU. And with the reduced fees those apps are also going to be more competitive than the App Store ones.

This also opens the way to standalone apps with the store included.

 

[Banjo64]

It’s going to be a lot easier now to get separate App Stores on iOS, at least in EU. And with the reduced fees those apps are also going to be more competitive than the App Store ones.

This also opens the way to standalone apps with the store included.

Would this allow easy emulation like on Android?

 

[reinking]

This week should be a good one.......

 

[Chukhopops]

Would this allow easy emulation like on Android?

Seems like it will work exactly like Android (disabled by default and hidden somewhere in the settings) so normally it should.

I don’t think the majority of iPhone users will activate the option but it will be there at least. Plus there will finally be an xCloud native app for iOS.

 

[PaintTinJr]

Great link, was well worth the hour to listen to 3 people talk intelligently about lots of issues that get hand-waved away and how it impacts competition.

My favourite part in the whole thing was Khan commenting that historically the US focusing on competition when other nations were focusing on the Nationalistic defence angle ensured that innovation came from markets with competition. Another highlight for me was her mentioning about Java and Netscape being a threat to Microsoft's maintained monopoly in the OS market and about them looking back at mergers they where they missed the anticompetitive action.

What that tells me is that if the FTC decided to unroll the purchase of 3dfx by Nvidia - causing patent headaches for Microsoft - before highlighting Microsoft's monopoly defence of Windows by the proprietary DirectX API - they share with Nvidia - that is deployed in cloud/console and Windows would give real teeth to their case against Microsoft for this deal - as it parallels the Java and Netscape issues.

 

[Edmund]

Exclusives and games don’t sell consoles anymore?

And yes, they need to work on their marketing. But they’ll push big AAA games.

Why work on marketing when you can just open your warchest and buy up everything. It's the easy way out.

 

[Timberwolf25]

It’s going to be a lot easier now to get separate App Stores on iOS, at least in EU. And with the reduced fees those apps are also going to be more competitive than the App Store ones.

This also opens the way to standalone apps with the store included.

I wonder if this will finally allow me to install Kodi without going through a lot of workarounds/jailbreaks?

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

Back to life

A round of diplomatic meetings, economic reports and an earnings season in full flourish make for a busy diary

www.ft.com

It is also a big week for Big Tech with quarterly results from Amazon.com, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft. The latter will also have an eye on the UK, where on Wednesday the Competition and Markets Authority is due to finally rule on whether to block the technology company’s $69bn takeover of games maker Activision Blizzard, although this is likely to prove a damp squib as the CMA is expected to support it.

Does anybody expect a different outcome?

 

[splattered]

http://[URL]https://www.ft.com/content/7870486b-c5b0-48d4-9a53-178569f96b10

[/URL]



Does anybody expect a different outcome?

I can think of a few people still holding out hope

 

[Roronoa Zoro]

They sell, but not at the same rate as 3rd party games.
Exclusive games account 20% of the platform, aside of nintendo consoles.

Except they're the swing votes plus MS has taken previously huge third party multiplatform IP and they will now be exclusive so we haven't seen this kinda thing happen before. Even stuff like FF and such has been exclusive to PS for so long we don't know what the kinda shift an ES or Doom being exclusive will have. Even if only 1/5 or 1/10 of the games people have are exclusive or console exclusive that still means you got that person plus all the 3rd party games they buy in the future onto your platform with that exclusive. If there's 10 people and 1 buys FF and a bunch of multiplats, another buys Horizon and a bunch of multiplats, another buys uncharted and a bunch of multiplats, etc. that means they all bought the console for an exclusive but also probably all got COD. That's why third parties sell more but don't get people to swing to your console as much

 

[reksveks]

I wonder if this will finally allow me to install Kodi without going through a lot of workarounds/jailbreaks?

It should be less workarounds but probably a couple (2-3 clicks)

 

[PaintTinJr]

http://[URL]https://www.ft.com/content/7870486b-c5b0-48d4-9a53-178569f96b10

[/URL]



Does anybody expect a different outcome?

Does it really constitute analysis when they've a conflict of interest from Microsoft advertising spend - for the deal - with them?

I don't think anybody has mentioned it, but the way in which Khan was being attacked over doing her job could ironically be influential with the CMA - assuming they saw it - to tighten things up to support other "enforces" - as Khan repeatedly referred to the FTC in the cnbc interview - to do their job and hold companies with government like power - as the interviewers quizzed - to account.

In the end of the last CMA provisional report there was comment on a 3rd party analysis that supported a console SLC from the deal. Has that also been dropped or just not given any conversation after the initial Sony figures for an SLC were replaced with Microsoft's and the SLC provisionally dropped?

 

[aries_71]

I can think of a few people still holding out hope

Wouldn’t they, for a chance, be posting desperate hopes here, right?

 

[reksveks]

Does it really constitute analysis when they've a conflict of interest from Microsoft advertising spend - for the deal - with them?

Typically advertising sales teams and editorial teams are kept separate and unfortunately that sometimes cause issues with related to perception of bias. I personally am not taking too much stock into it.

In the end of the last CMA provisional report there was comment on a 3rd party analysis that supported a console SLC from the deal. Has that also been dropped or just not given any conversation after the initial Sony figures for an SLC were replaced with Microsoft's and the SLC provisionally dropped?

Again they ain't using MS figures/assumptions at least completely and they pushed back on some of MS's assumptions. Re the third party comment, you may need to be more specific. Was this on the CMA page as there was only one more document which was a professor in London, trying to explain his view on the cloud gaming market.

 

[Edmund]

I can think of a few people still holding out hope

I propose a no nut challenge.

I think this deal is 100% going through with only small behavioral remedies. If the deal doesn't go through or if there are structural remedies involved, I will not nut for a whole month.

Anyone wanna accept my challenge?

 

[laynelane]

Go at you? Weren't you the one making personal claims about love of companies and other nonsense simply because I pushed back on the notion that Lina Khan was doing a good job? That is the definition of weak. It doesn't matter if you were talking about me specifically or not. I don't think Lina Khan is doing a good job and provided numerous examples why I believe that.

I also did so without making any commentary about her gender or appearance which are strawmen used against people who had valid criticisms against her terrible tenure. Most complaints aren't even necessarily about this specific deal, numerous companies have complained and they also had valid issues. Numerous career lawyers have also quit along with board members. But I suppose they left because they didn't like that she was female right?

You can continue to take the brave stance and stand with Lina, (which of course has nothing to do with the ABK deal heh), but you will have to deal with people disagreeing with you about it. She has done a terrible job and is hurting the organization. Perhaps you need some introspection.

You really do lack introspection. Again, my initial comment was not aimed at you and yet you took it personally. And still are as is apparent by this response. How unsurprising that you still don't see why this is your issue, not mine.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

Wouldn’t they, for a chance, be posting desperate hopes here, right?

Hope dies last

 

[POKEYCLYDE]

bigger reputation hit if there is an appeal about why instead of doing the calculations again they just trew everything

But they did redo their calculations.

I don't think anybody has mentioned it, but the way in which Khan was being attacked over doing her job could ironically be influential with the CMA - assuming they saw it - to tighten things up to support other "enforces" - as Khan repeatedly referred to the FTC in the cnbc interview - to do their job and hold companies with government like power - as the interviewers quizzed - to account.

Hold them to account for what?

In the end of the last CMA provisional report there was comment on a 3rd party analysis that supported a console SLC from the deal. Has that also been dropped or just not given any conversation after the initial Sony figures for an SLC were replaced with Microsoft's and the SLC provisionally dropped?

The thing is, the CMA didn't use Microsoft's numbers.

This first picture shows that the CMA didn't just use Microsoft's numbers. They used their own judgement and model to come to their conclusions.

And this picture shows that with their own model, under all scenarios, taking CoD from Playstation would result in $X Billion in losses.

 

[ManaByte]

FT saying CMA will approve.

Back to life

A round of diplomatic meetings, economic reports and an earnings season in full flourish make for a busy diary

www.ft.com

It is also a big week for Big Tech with quarterly results from Amazon.com, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft. The latter will also have an eye on the UK, where on Wednesday the Competition and Markets Authority is due to finally rule on whether to block the technology company’s $69bn takeover of games maker Activision Blizzard, although this is likely to prove a damp squib as the CMA is expected to support it.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

Console SLC was the big issue. Microsoft is not going to let this deal fail because of cloud streaming. That 70% could market share is because of Gamepass not xCloud. They would forego streaming of Activision games in the short term if that ended up being the sticking point. Currently not ever game on Gamepass can be streamed so it wouldn't be that big of a deal.

Whose fault is it that xCloud is only available via Game Pass? MS don't get the luxury of arguing them as separate products now; they are joined at the hip until MS actually provide xCloud on its own in its largest markets.

So in effect, xCloud owns 70% of the cloud market because of xCloud, because xCloud has been bundled with Game Pass Ultimate the entire time. In regards to discussing its market share, the two might as well essentially be one in the same. After all, xCloud's library of offerings are all the same games provided in Game Pass Ultimate.

Back to life

A round of diplomatic meetings, economic reports and an earnings season in full flourish make for a busy diary

www.ft.com

Does anybody expect a different outcome?

Personally never doubted the CMA would approve the deal. The question has always been with what type of remedies? Behavioral, structural, or a mix of both?

For the sake of the market and setting a precedent that other companies will have to follow so that the open market of 3P content can remain somewhat stable, I would say they should approve it with a mix of behavioral and structural remedies. But I guess we'll see how much of a spine the CMA have come Wednesday.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

For the sake of the market and setting a precedent that other companies will have to follow so that the open market of 3P content can remain somewhat stable, I would say they should approve it with a mix of behavioral and structural remedies. But I guess we'll see how much of a spine the CMA have come Wednesday.

There won't be any structural remedies. And in the first place there should not have been any kind of remedies. Asking for remedies in a nascent market does not make sense, but oh well.

 

[SoloKingRobert]

FT saying CMA will approve.

http://[URL]https://www.ft.com/content/7870486b-c5b0-48d4-9a53-178569f96b10

[/URL]

Everyone knows this deal will be approved with no concessions. Those naysayers are just fanboys, hoping for it to be blocked.