Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Varteras said:
Lulu, Phil, Bobby, and Brad right now...

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Lulu is busy trying to find a buyer for all those shares she's got before it goes below $50 a share.
 
Varteras said:
You know what's fucking impressive? Hours later on this and no one has been banned! Did we do it guys? Did we grow up?!

...watch me get banned now...
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The ones who were most likely candidates to get banned have either been suspiciously silent, or are already banned from this thread or the forum in it's entirety.

But we are only at the beginning of the Kubler-Ross cycle and there will be many people paralysed with shock for now due to how the events have unfolded.
 
When the breakup happens I expect a lot of those tweets by Lulu are going to be evidence from Microsoft that ABK didn't act in the best interests of the deal

They are going to be down 3 billion thanks to Lulu. She will be unemployable
 
Yoboman said:
When the breakup happens I expect a lot of those tweets by Lulu are going to be evidence from Microsoft that ABK didn't act in the best interests of the deal

They are going to be down 3 billion thanks to Lulu. She will be unemployable
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Holy shit. I didn't even think of that!
 
Yoboman said:
When the breakup happens I expect a lot of those tweets by Lulu are going to be evidence from Microsoft that ABK didn't act in the best interests of the deal

They are going to be down 3 billion thanks to Lulu. She will be unemployable
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That will be a bit of a stretch considering all the shite that rolled out of the various MS execs mouths, from when they started the publisher buying spree.
 
DJ12 said:
Lulu is busy trying to find a buyer for all those shares she's got before it goes below $50 a share.
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She probably sold those yesterday when the idea that the deal was essentially done was hinted at enough to drive the price up as much as it did. Although maybe this news would have broken before people got a chance to do that. 🤷‍♂️

Edit: I guess people that much in the know really couldn't make moves like that anyway, probably would be insider trading. :messenger_grinning_smiling:
 
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DJ12 said:
That will be a bit of a stretch considering all the shite that rolled out of the various MS execs mouths, from when they started the publisher buying spree.
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MS execs played it pretty coy. I don't recall them attacking Sony having a role in proceedings. When referencing Sony it was usually to point out market share or the deals in offer, and Xbox execs got exceedingly more quiet on the deal once it hit regulatory bodies

Lulu on the other hand was leaking quotes from meetings, making memes about Sony, insinuating Sony is bad for competition, making insinuations about the integrity of the CMA

MS aren't just parting from 3 billion like it's nothing, it will get ugly

And yeah Activision will argue it's MS who botched the dealm hence the mud slinging
 
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According to the merger i said before: dont light your cigar before the fat lady sings, and MS lost the lighter, and now i think MS is in trouble, dispite all the guys in the forums and on Twitter who where shure the deal was a done deal, are try do damage control.
The ambassadors on the internet are on full damagecontroll.
I wonder how they try to spin this. Next stop the EU and the FTC....
 
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Yoboman said:
MS execs played it pretty coy. I don't recall them attacking Sony having a role in proceedings. When referencing Sony it was usually to point out market share or the deals in offer, and Xbox execs got exceedingly more quiet on the deal once it hit regulatory bodies

Lulu on the other hand was leaking quotes from meetings, making memes about Sony, insinuating Sony is bad for competition, making insinuations about the integrity of the CMA

MS aren't just parting from 3 billion like it's nothing, it will get ugly

And yeah Activision will argue it's MS who botched the dealm hence the mud slinging
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Some rando chatting shit on twitter did not stop the CMA approving this deal. MS did. No one even knew who the hell she was until she became the shill/astrotufer/fanboys dream twitter content provider.

I think they will pay what was agreed without fuss, as they know ultimately, this is on them.
 
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SneakersSO said:
I actually did think the CMA's concerns on the cloud market were serious. In fact, one of the factors folks here have never given enough due credit, in part cause this is a gaming forum and more folks are focused on the gaming/console side of this deal, but Google was against the deal, and closed their market position in the Cloud market (Stadia), and blamed it on MS to the CMA.

This was a fact that was plain as day that we all turned a blind eye to, in part cause the speculation around the overall success of the cloud market is fairly negative in most gaming forums/circles. If you're the CMA, and you have a market competitor who is telling you that MS' current market position in this nascent market forced them to abandon their position, and MS is now trying to entrench themselves further by taking even more content off the table from potential entrants or participants in said market, then its easy to see why they sided with opposing it.
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Why google don't have made a contract with abk? For some people is so easy to make deals even for small companies like boosteroid instead to close stadia
 
DJ12 said:
Some rando chatting shit on twitter did not stop the CMA approving this deal. MS did. No one even knew who the hell she was until she became the shill/astrotufer/fanboys dream twitter content provider.

I think they will pay what was agreed without fuss, as they know ultimately, this is on them.
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She's not some "random" on twitter. She has been responsible for all of Activision's public communications regarding this deal and stood to gain a healthy sum if the deal were to go through:

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/insiders/meservey-lulu-cheng-1213028

3782 shares that Microsoft were scheduled to buy out at a price of 95 dollars a share. You do the maths.
 
DJ12 said:
Some rando chatting shit on twitter did not stop the CMA approving this deal. MS did. No one even knew who the hell she was until she became the shill/astrotufer/fanboys dream twitter content provider.

I think they will pay what was agreed without fuss, as they know ultimately, this is on them.
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No chance. That 3 billion is the sword of Damocles. If ABK walk away with it then it's on Phil to explain to investors and his bosses how he lost 3 billion and tens of millions more on legal fees for nothing

Getting out of that fee is in the Xbox teams best interest

And there will be clauses in their agreements that execs need to act with fiscal responsibility in the best interest of the deal. It's hard to argue that Lulu meeting the CMA and Sony is responsible communication during a 70 billion dollar deal
 
reksveks said:
Will be interesting to see what they (MS) do next.

Would probably move on personally but it does kill any chance of their mobile app store.
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Wasn't the DMU and powers just beefed up in March specifically to give powers to open up app stores in the UK? I think change is still coming there, quite separate to ABK.

Content is one element, regulator power shift is another.
 
I know
GHG said:
She's not some "random" on twitter. She has been responsible for all of Activision's public communications regarding this deal and stood to gain a healthy sum if the deal were to go through:

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/insiders/meservey-lulu-cheng-1213028

3782 shares that Microsoft were scheduled to buy out at a price of 95 dollars a share. You do the maths.
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I know who she is, was being flippant, the rest of it still counts.

will be interesting to see that site though over the next weeks and months see who's cashing out.
 
nikolino840 said:
Why google don't have made a contract with abk? For some people is so easy to make deals even for small companies like boosteroid instead to close stadia
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They looked at the opportunity cost of Xbox abandoning agreements or moving in a different direction in both markets. In console they concluded they would lose X billion per year so MS didn't have a financial incentive there. On cloud the barrier to making COD exclusive is much much lower so they would have incentive
 
Yoboman said:
No chance. That 3 billion is the sword of Damocles. If ABK walk away with it then it's on Phil to explain to investors and his bosses how he lost 3 billion and tens of millions more on legal fees for nothing

Getting out of that fee is in the Xbox teams best interest

And there will be clauses in their agreements that execs need to act with fiscal responsibility in the best interest of the deal. It's hard to argue that Lulu meeting the CMA and Sony is responsible communication during a 70 billion dollar deal
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I doubt Phil will be there to explain anything.
 
feynoob said:
No big acquisition after this.
Square and others are off the table for Sony.

They are the market leader currently.
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Just to further throw fuel on the Xbox fire: Sony could probably buy who they want within their budget, as they don't have the complete package infrastructure wise that Microsoft do.
 
feynoob said:
No big acquisition after this.
Square and others are off the table for Sony.

They are the market leader currently.
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Not really. Anything with an essential input is off the table for sure. Can't really argue Square Enix have any essential inputs like COD. In fact only GTA, Nintendo games and EA Sports games would likely fit that definition

Sony behaviour with Bungie will be favourably viewed whereas Xbox actions with Bethesda only worked against them
 
Varteras said:
Activision is staring at a very rough road if they try to ride it out with Microsoft. They won't be able to make any deals with Sony for the duration of the appeal, and that could be a long time from now. 2024, possibly 2025. In the meantime they'd basically be working with the loser of the group whose platform doesn't sell games. All that just to likely get told no anyways. If Microsoft doesn't walk away now, ABK shareholders will in July.
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Honestly, that could be reason alone for ATVI to decide to walk away come July. Why get handcuffed business wise for yet another year, when the prospects of actually overturning the CMA block are so unbelievably low?

I wouldn't be surprised if MS tries to get ATVI to agree to spin off King come Summer. At least they'd be able to walk away with something. Wouldn't be clean, and MS would have to pay a fortune anyway, but it allows some of the higher ups like Brad/Phil/Nadella to save face.
 
Yoboman said:
No chance. That 3 billion is the sword of Damocles. If ABK walk away with it then it's on Phil to explain to investors and his bosses how he lost 3 billion and tens of millions more on legal fees for nothing

Getting out of that fee is in the Xbox teams best interest

And there will be clauses in their agreements that execs need to act with fiscal responsibility in the best interest of the deal. It's hard to argue that Lulu meeting the CMA and Sony is responsible communication during a 70 billion dollar deal
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My honest opinion is that Phil is done at MS. I don't see how he survives this deal falling through. You don't spearhead something like this, have it collapse, then move on to the next thing. The $3B is the cost of doing business, and represented the costs/investments/risk that it may not pan out. So it is something that MS knew there was a chance they would have to pay it, and they're going to have to pay it. In the grand scheme of things, it's not a back breaking amount of money or anything.
 
diffusionx said:
My honest opinion is that Phil is done at MS. I don't see how he survives this deal falling through. You don't spearhead something like this, have it collapse, then move on to the next thing. The $3B is the cost of doing business, and represented the costs/investments/risk that it may not pan out. So it is something that MS knew there was a chance they would have to pay it, and they're going to have to pay it. In the grand scheme of things, it's not a back breaking amount of money or anything.
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This wasn't Phil Spencer's deal to close. He didn't spearhead anything.
 
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