Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)
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ToadMan
Member
Absolutely - ATVI moreso than MS I'd say.
Checking here
https://investor.activision.com/press-releases
The last press release to investors was 11 July and it was an update about bringing Barbie to Kandy Krush (that's what I wanted from Xbox…. But I digress).
Yet updates about extending an agreement for the entire company to be acquired are absent.
Barbie is apparently more critical than this acquisition.
ToadMan
Member
Yes because after tonight ATVI can withdraw without notice at any moment.
And they could entertain offers from others on that basis. They could also report strong financials and pull out to remain independent.
MS needs stability and certainty to keep going and that means requiring ATVI to confirm they will not pull out for the above reasons.
None of that means the contract expires automatically. It means it can be terminated at any time for any reason without fault of the terminating party.
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PaintTinJr
Member
MY current thought is that Microsoft are leveraging the $3B to say they will litigate it if ATVI walk away, and ATVI are assessing the threat, versus their obligation to their shareholders.
I feel the deal is dying - and would have died - but is currently held in limbo/silence by a Microsoft legal threat over lulu tweets
I feel the deal is dying - and would have died - but is currently held in limbo/silence by a Microsoft legal threat over lulu tweets
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
MS can't do that. If AB walks in less than 25 minutes, sure. But after 25 minutes, ABK is free to walk away and take $3 billion from MS that Microsoft must pay, as per their contract, within 2 business days if I remember correctly.MY current thought is that Microsoft are leveraging the $3B to say they will litigate it if ATVI walk away, and ATVI are assessing the threat, versus their obligation to their shareholders.
I feel the deal is dying - and would have died - but is currently held in limbo/silence by a Microsoft legal threat over lulu tweets
But because of the CMA thing, I think ABK is now more likely to stay. If there was no Aug. 29 deadline, however, and CAT appeal would have gone as is, then ABK would likely have walked away because of the uncertainty.
ShaiKhulud1989
Gold Member
We can all agree that this kind of silence is strange to say the least, right? Maybe everything will be extended at the end, but there are clearly some roadblocks and hurdles to extend the deal on autopilot. And yes, at this point MS needs this to happen way-way more than Activision.
Varteras
Gold Member
Stay strong, bitch. I believe in you.
simdog461
Member
I'd actually argue the opposite.
Microsoft's stock price went up 4% in one day today due to their new AI product.
On the contrary, their stock barely moved when they announced the ABK deal.
Investors have clearly shown they are far more bullish on AI than gaming.
I'd be willing to wager there's a few emails being swapped at Microsoft saying "wtf are we doing spending $70 billion on a deal in an attempt to, maybe one day, catch up to Sony".
If I were ABK, I'd be trying to get that extension signed ASAP.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Yes, this is important.
Although the deal is pretty much through, I am not exactly sure how happy Microsoft (and its shareholders) would be feeling investing so much in the gaming department that they don't do well at all in. This is especially after ensuring the biggest property (COD) will remain multiplatform. And, if anything, MS would itself be cannibalizing COD sales on their own platform because of day one Game Pass (which also hasn't been growing at all).
On the other hand, AI is a high-growth sector that Microsoft has already seen more success and market share dominance in. Their stockholders certainly want more AI stuff than Xbox/gaming stuff.
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I kinda get the feeling that exactly nothing is gonna happen. They dont need to explicity extend the deal, so I expect this to be pretty anti-climatic until they close sometimes in august.
Bernoulli
M2 slut
Edit no news so far
www.wsj.com
Microsoft and Activision Blizzard Still Committed to $75 Billion Merger
The companies have secured approval in Europe, China and other markets but hit roadblocks in the U.S. and the U.K.
www.wsj.com
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Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
edit: false alarm caused by the WSJ article.Theu moved to 75 billions
Microsoft and Activision Blizzard Still Committed to $75 Billion Merger
The companies have secured approval in Europe, China and other markets but hit roadblocks in the U.S. and the U.K.
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Bernoulli
M2 slut
Wait here it says 75 tooBobby at it
Even more expensive for Microsoft now lol!
havoc00
Member
Bobby billions always winsBobby at it
Even more expensive for Microsoft now lol!
bitbydeath
Member
If nothing happens it means they're having trouble coming to an agreement.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
edit: false alarm caused by the WSJ article.
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Lord Malachite
Member
havoc00
Member
They will make money off of cod while it's multi platform, they will bolster gamepass with this. Have tons of ips get in the mobile game etc it's a win for ms
bitbydeath
Member
This figure was addressed earlier.Theu moved to 75 billions
Microsoft and Activision Blizzard Still Committed to $75 Billion Merger
The companies have secured approval in Europe, China and other markets but hit roadblocks in the U.S. and the U.K.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Oh okay, we jumped the gun then. The deal may not have jumped up to $75 billion as of now at least.
Bernoulli
M2 slut
Please Bobby ask for moreOh okay, we jumped the gun then. The deal may not have jumped up to $75 billion as of now at least.
At least 80B
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
$80B might be too much. He wants to squeeze Microsoft but also don't want to make it impossible for them to continue.Please Bobby ask for more
At least 80B
Unless there is a new buyer already waiting to scoop ABK, I don't think Kottick will gamble by that much. The problem is that there are only a handful of companies that can afford ABK.
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Bernoulli
M2 slut
But now Activision are doing much better than when MS made the offer
Just with COD and Diablo they can ask for 80B
And if it's true that the next COD will be on the new switch that adds way more value, switch games don't decrease in price
With low end smartphone becoming more powerful there is more players on mobile games and more micro transactions money
Nice calling people braindead then changing your post when it might be the other way around, smoooooth.
Negotiator101
Member
I agree somewhat in that Microsoft are not dependent on this deal but its certainly a big step forward for Microsoft regardless.
As for Activision the posters thinking they'll walk from the deal are IMO wrong. Activision want to be bought and apart from Microsoft there are not many companies who have that kind of money or who actually have a need for a business like that.
Seriously you guys never stop with the nonsense, you think Microsoft will pay another 11 billion on top?
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Yes, but Kottick also has $400 million personal money on the line
simdog461
Member
it's a big step for xbox, for Microsoft as a whole… eh jury's out.
Gaming is a high capital, resource intense, cutthroat market, that only provides relatively small returns for Microsoft.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Tom is not entertaining the possibility of ABK walking away. I agree that's very unlikely in the current scenario but it is still a possibility.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Bethesda's purchase did not work out for them as well as they thought it would. Console market share dwindled even further, and Game Pass did not grow either.
While ABK is a better, more high-impact purchase than Zenimax, I don't think it will prove to be a megaton either in terms of upping the key metrics.
Negotiator101
Member
Possibly but I don't think they'd lay out 70 billion for small returns, obviously they have big long term plans that very much include Xbox.
ToTTenTranz
Banned
Of course not, it's just this sudden love for a $2.7 trillion corporation that all these liberal publications suddenly felt deep within their hearts.
That and agreeing with all those republicans saying the FTC shouldn't go after Microsoft because they're too big so they should focus on smaller fish instead, i.e. "Microsoft is so rich they're above the law and the FTC should leave them alone".
Telling regulators to leave rich companies alone is totally.a left wing talking point everywhere.
simdog461
Member
I'm sure they have plans, but their investors clearly told them today/ yesterday they like AI more than gaming.
Microsoft were very quick to put this deal in motion to begin with. Can be just as quick to back out. Will be an interesting few days.
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Banjo64
cumsessed
Agreed.
And from ABK's POV it makes no sense to sign an extension and remove their leverage.
The thing that would concern me from a MS perspective is that the CMA don't seem to have answers that the judge wanted, and can they get it all together by tomorrow lunch time?
MasterCornholio
Member
Is the judge going to accept any answer?
ToTTenTranz
Banned
The CMA still needs to justify their change of heart by saying exactly which changes to the acquisition fit their initial demands.
Otherwise they're just making an ass out of the UK's whole judicial system, and judges do tend to take those personally.
Also, I suspect the UK's judge doesn't have family working for Microsoft.
Negotiator101
Member
We haven't even begun to see what the Bethesda deal will do for Xbox, Starfield? Elderscrolls? Doom?
That ain't happening, you don't put this much effort into a deal to then back out, business doesn't work like that.
Bernoulli
M2 slut
that's why CMA wanted to submit yesterday at 5PM
from the CMA side it's over, only the CAT judge can make ABK leave
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
But backing out means losing $3 billion. That's a lot of money for anyone to just lose without gaining anything.
Bernoulli
M2 slut
lose 3B but you have 62B left to invest in AI to dominate
they can reach Windows level of domination because it's still early
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
One article (I think it was from Reuters) said that the judge talked about the possibility of adding additional tribunal judges.
If that happens, it can further complicate things because then multiple judges may need to be satisfied. (having said that, I doubt the judge would jeopardize the entire deal. I think he smells rats and doesn't want himself to be associated with this debauchery).
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supernova8
Banned
To be clear, I never ruled out the possibility of Activision asking for (and getting) more money or better terms, I was more suggesting that I don't think they're going to call the deal off (if that's what you're lightly suggesting)Obviously, and yet they haven't - or at least they have made nothing public.
What should we take from that?
I mean I assume that MS is gung ho to continue the acquisition.
So the fact there is seemingly no agreed extension and media is now reporting they're in talks, implies ATVI isn't quite so gung ho on it and so far hasn't agreed to extend.
What are those talks about? More money? Why wouldn't ATVI extend? They believe it's in their interest to keep the option to pull out?
I guess ATVI could say the want the $3 billion termination sum added to the buyout price. That's somewhere around a 4% uplift and would push the price per share to about $100 - ish.
Then there are new terms about when this version of the deal expires, and what additional payoff ATVI are entitled to if it remains blocked at that time?
If this is the kind of negotiation happening now, ATVI must have at least considered the possibility of pulling out vs continuing - that in itself is a megaton because it demonstrates ATVI is not convinced that a sell to MS on those terms is in their best interests now.
Or maybe their printer is out of toner and the stores are closed until tomorrow
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Yeah, opportunity costs and all.
simdog461
Member
I agree, on balance, it's not likely.
But the silence is certainly interesting.
If this whole saga has shown anything, there can be twists at any moment.
simdog461
Member
$3bn is literally a rounding error for Microsoft.
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