Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
Vox Machina said:
If I was a T2 shareholder there's 0% chance I'd agree to any merger/sale agreement before GTA6 launches. That game will, in my opinion, drastically increase the valuation of the company.


.... I need to go buy some T2 stock.
Click to expand...
This makes no sense. If there is an acquisition offer it will factor in GTA6 estimates as will the base stock price. It will be do I want an 'instant' guaranteed 20% or more or do I want to wait and see if somehow the market was really wrong and the game does way better than anyone predicted by a long shot and somehow this makes the stock worth more than 20% above what it was before when people were only predicting that the game would be a top seller for 10 years and bought day 1 by a large fraction of those that bought GTA5 at least once.
 
Regarding Take Two, I think a perfectly legal strategy for MS to prevent Sony from getting them would be to simply start buying TTWO shares at public exchanges to drive up the share price. Once it has reached, let's say $250, just make sure that it stays there. Problem solved.
 
Everyone will sell out at the right price, isn't that what we've been told?



And before some go
lysR28t.gif

I find the thought of Sony buying Valve beyond unlikely and that the video above is from before Steam is what it is today.
 
Thirty7ven said:
Lmao what happened to keeping the same energy?

Fear of Sony buying a big company, and fear of Sony taking the PC market just like that.

And before you go on a senseless baseless diatribe, both things could happen. Neither money nor regulators would be a problem. The only company that wouldn't be allowed to buy Steam is MS.
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A lot of companies would have a hard time buying steam. Anyone with a significant PC store would have a problem as buying your competition is often a reason for not allowing a merger. It is not clear how much of a challenge it would be for Sony to gobble up Valve. I am not sure they would want it. While it would give them a nice place to sell their PC ports for 0% store fee, it would entail taking on a team of devs that are used to fucking around on shit that never gets released.

MS was "allowed" to acquire a large publisher because it it in 3rd place. It is likely that this is the only large acquisition like this that can be made by a platform holder.
 
Goalus said:
Regarding Take Two, I think a perfectly legal strategy for MS to prevent Sony from getting them would be to simply start buying TTWO shares at public exchanges to drive up the share price. Once it has reached, let's say $250, just make sure that it stays there. Problem solved.
Click to expand...
Shouldn't pro-acquisition Xbox fans wish and hope that Sony buys Take-Two as that will "increase competition?"
 
KungFucius said:
A lot of companies would have a hard time buying steam. Anyone with a significant PC store would have a problem as buying your competition is often a reason for not allowing a merger. It is not clear how much of a challenge it would be for Sony to gobble up Valve. I am not sure they would want it. While it would give them a nice place to sell their PC ports for 0% store fee, it would entail taking on a team of devs that are used to fucking around on shit that never gets released.

MS was "allowed" to acquire a large publisher because it it in 3rd place. It is likely that this is the only large acquisition like this that can be made by a platform holder.
Click to expand...

I'm not saying Sony should buy Steam, hopefully Steam stays as is forever. They are the reason why PC gaming is flying.
 
Heisenberg007 said:
Shouldn't pro-acquisition Xbox fans wish and hope that Sony buys Take-Two as that will "increase competition?"
Click to expand...
Shouldn't anti acquisition Sony fans be adamant that they don't? Which doesn't seem to be the case tbh?

Personally, I couldn't give a shit. I'd prefer no exclusives and hope their days are numbered, but for me owning the company is less annoying than a paid for exclusivity. Marginally. Slightly less cunty.
 
skit_data said:
Everyone will sell out at the right price, isn't that what we've been told?



And before some go
lysR28t.gif

I find the thought of Sony buying Valve beyond unlikely and that the video above is from before Steam is what it is today.
Click to expand...

It's possible that Valve could sell, but because they are private they don't have a fiduciary duty to do so. Gabe would decide who to sell to and for how much, or to not sell at all.

With publicly traded companies, the CEO's fiduciary duty is to get the highest price for their shareholders, who would then vote if they want to sell.

Maybe Gabe is ready to cash out for billions and maybe he would do it to Sony... but there's no evidence of such a thing happening other than a random Twitter shit post.
 
Ar¢tos said:
The goalposts already started moving!
LOL
Click to expand...
What goalposts?
My first post layed out a strategy to make it nearly impossible for Sony to buy a certain US publisher, and in my second post I give a reason why it would be reasonable to not let Sony buy any US company.
 
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Heisenberg007 said:
Shouldn't pro-acquisition Xbox fans wish and hope that Sony buys Take-Two as that will "increase competition?"
Click to expand...
You mean like how the 73-9 Golden State Warriors adding Kevin Durant the next year "increased competition". Sony is by far the market leader and any acquisition they make with "intentions" of foreclosing competitors would be deemed anti-competitive by just about all regulators.
 
Goalus said:
What goalposts?
My first post layed out a strategy to make it nearly impossible for Sony to buy a certain US publisher, and in my second post I give a reason why it would be reasonable to not let Sony buy any US company.
Click to expand...
But Sony just wants to bring more games to more players everywhere!
What's not reasonable about that!
Seems like a pretty good deal for everyone.
 
A reap of recent and next key dates as per Idas from Era.


THE LAST 15 DAYS
- July 11th: Court allows Microsoft's $69B acquisition to go forward, denying PI.
- July 11th: UK looks to pause trial over Microsoft purchase.
- July 11th: Microsoft offers to make small divestiture to meet UK objections on Activision.
- July 12th: FTC appeals judge's OK for $69B Microsoft-Activision deal.
- July 13th: The Trade Desk rises as Nasdaq announces it will join Nasdaq-100 Index, replacing ABK.
- July 13th: Judge denies FTC request to temporarily block Activision sale to Microsoft.
- July 13th: Microsoft and Activision consider sale of UK cloud-gaming rights.
- July 13th: Acquisition approved in Turkey.
- July 14th: UK regulator extends deadline for Microsoft-Activision final order until Aug. 29.
- July 14th: UK appeals court sets Monday 17 th for hearing on Microsoft-Activision deal.
- July 14th: FTC loses appeals court bid to pause Microsoft's deal for Activision.
- July 16th: MS and Sony sign agreement regarding the access to Call of Duty.
- July 18th: US Supreme Court denies gamers request to block the merger.
- July 19th: MS/ABK extend the merger agreement to October 18th
- July 19th: ABK declares $0,99 dividend due to the extension of the merger agreement.
- July 20th: New Zealand delayed again the final decision, now to August 8th.
- July 21st: the FTC withdraws the internal lawsuit.
- July 21st: The CAT officially adjourned the appeal in UK.


NEXT KEY DATES:
- Late July/very early August: the CMA will likely publish details regarding Microsoft's new submissions.
- The week beginning 7th August: the provisional view from the CMA about the new proposal from MS/ABK will likely be published.
- August 8th: final decision from New Zealand.
- The week beginning 14th August: likely period where third parties will have 7 days to make representations about the provisional view from the CMA.
- August 29th: deadline to accept final undertakings or make a final order by the CMA.
- August 29th: if the merger is not closed by then, the breakup fee will be increased from $3,000,000,000 to $3,500,000,000.
- September 15th: if the merger is not closed by then, the breakup fee will be increased from $3,500,000,000 to $4,500,000,000.
- October 18th: new outside date; the merger agreement can be terminated by then if the parties agree or it has not been consummated prior to 11:59 p.m. (Pacific time).
 
C2brixx said:
You mean like how the 73-9 Golden State Warriors adding Kevin Durant the next year "increased competition". Sony is by far the market leader and any acquisition they make with "intentions" of foreclosing competitors would be deemed anti-competitive by just about all regulators.
Click to expand...
Not that the Valve purchase is happening, but where would the competition concern for that deal come from?

Getting the Counter Strike IP to give a Sony polish and use it for their esports, and hope to gain some competitor to MGS, ATVI and Zenimax FPSes, - as they have no exclusive FPS with any percentage of that genre in-house - they only own Bungie in a hands off multi-platform publisher capacity.

They don't have a Windows PC game store, so getting Steam shouldn't raise any non-cloud business concerns - only potential consumer ones and cloud ones - going by this merger.

It is also logical that with CoD at risk of failing under Microsoft ownership, getting a company with similar income to their current CoD profits would look like the deal was driven to provide insurance to offset this mergers potentially precarious impact on their bottom line.
 
Goalus said:
What goalposts?
My first post layed out a strategy to make it nearly impossible for Sony to buy a certain US publisher, and in my second post I give a reason why it would be reasonable to not let Sony buy any US company.
Click to expand...

Not realistic at all. United States isn't worried about foreign investment like Japan is so that just isn't going to happen.
 
Three said:
EA is publicly traded they'd want to sell just as willingly as Activison, as in if the price per share is good enough they would sell. Activison wasn't looking to sell if that's what you're suggesting.

As for market leader I don't think this is as much of an issue after what has transpired regarding Activison. The judge concluded that Nintendo is a competitor and so Sony aren't market leader. All they would need to do is sign a 10 yr deal for Fifa which isn't even called FIFA anymore and they can get away with it like Activision. Question is why would they want to for EA? T2 is a better buy.
Click to expand...

Hadn't thought of this before regarding hypothetical access agreements from other potential merger participants. Microsoft really paced the way here by defining what a workable access commitment would look like.

I have to imagine access agreements like this will become more common with the increased regulatory attention the gaming industry is getting.
 
Goalus said:
Regarding Take Two, I think a perfectly legal strategy for MS to prevent Sony from getting them would be to simply start buying TTWO shares at public exchanges to drive up the share price. Once it has reached, let's say $250, just make sure that it stays there. Problem solved.
Click to expand...

Public companies can only buy up to a 10% stake in other companies as a "passive investment" (in the U.S.) after which the FTC can launch an investigation because anything more than that can be considered a merger. That's why Sony's investments into Epic and other companies are all < 10% ownership.

The relevant law here is the Hart-Scott-Rodino act.

corpgov.law.harvard.edu

The HSR Act’s Investment-Only Exemption for Targets and Activist Investors

Editor's Note: The following post comes to us from Barry A. Nigro Jr., partner in the Antitrust and Competition and Corporate Practices and chair of the Antitrust Department at Fried, Frank, Harris, Shriver & Jacobson LLP, and is based on a Fried Frank publication by Mr. Nigro, Philip Richter...
corpgov.law.harvard.edu corpgov.law.harvard.edu
 
C2brixx said:
You mean like how the 73-9 Golden State Warriors adding Kevin Durant the next year "increased competition". Sony is by far the market leader and any acquisition they make with "intentions" of foreclosing competitors would be deemed anti-competitive by just about all regulators.
Click to expand...

After the ATVI purchase, there is no market leader. Microsoft has the biggest first party, a head start on Cloud, and a significant amount of Software based revenue. You will also see GP subs go way up post acquisition.

So to further increase competition and make sure that a megacorp tech company doesn't take over all of Cloud, Sony purchasing T2 would increase competition in the eyes of the consolidation warriors.
 
PaintTinJr said:
Not that the Valve purchase is happening, but where would the competition concern for that deal come from?

Getting the Counter Strike IP to give a Sony polish and use it for their esports, and hope to gain some competitor to MGS, ATVI and Zenimax FPSes, - as they have no exclusive FPS with any percentage of that genre in-house - they only own Bungie in a hands off multi-platform publisher capacity.

They don't have a Windows PC game store, so getting Steam shouldn't raise any non-cloud business concerns - only potential consumer ones and cloud ones - going by this merger.

It is also logical that with CoD at risk of failing under Microsoft ownership, getting a company with similar income to their current CoD profits would look like the deal was driven to provide insurance to offset this mergers potentially precarious impact on their bottom line.
Click to expand...

Hypothetically I could see it getting a lot of regulatory attention around the VR market.
 
- MS spends ¿80000 million? to buy two huge publishers and remove multis from PS = It's good for the competition, gaming wins, now the games will reach more players (so says Phil xDDD).

-Rumor about Sony buying a company: But Sony can't, it's already the market leader and they won't let it, etc... xDD
 
Horseganador said:
- MS spends ¿80000 million? to buy two huge publishers and remove multis from PS = It's good for the competition, gaming wins, now the games will reach more players (so says Phil xDDD).

-Rumor about Sony buying a company: But Sony can't, it's already the market leader and they won't let it, etc... xDD
Click to expand...
Retarded, innit.
 
James Sawyer Ford said:
The company being acquired has input on who acquires them. Right now it does not appear that other big tech companies care to make big investments into AAA games. The suitors are relatively limited, and big companies aren't going to make stupid valuation decisions.

Even though Microsoft was desperate and had lots of cash, their deal for ATVI wasn't irrationally valued.

Bigger acquisitions on a relative basis occur literally all the time. Sony could acquire either of them and match or exceed offers from alternative suitors. It would just require a lot of debt.

I'm not saying it's realistic, but acting like it's impossible isn't historically accurate
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It ain't happening dude, like literally no chance.
 
Horseganador said:
- MS spends ¿80000 million? to buy two huge publishers and remove multis from PS = It's good for the competition, gaming wins, now the games will reach more players (so says Phil xDDD).

-Rumor about Sony buying a company: But Sony can't, it's already the market leader and they won't let it, etc... xDD
Click to expand...
Let's be honest for xbox fans this is not about competition. It is about to make Sony out of business.
 
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