Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
We're three days away from Marathons gameplay reveal and there's a (small) chance that we learn about Bungies pricing model there. Predict how you think Bungie will handle this...
Predict Marathons pricing model...
- Thread starter Men_in_Boxes
- Start date
dreamstation
Member
Badly I'd say. Depending on how the game is I'd be happy paying $40 with full access and cosmetic mtx.
diffusionx
Gold Member
I chose the one I think is going to be most exploitative, because Bungie is a horrible company.
Radical_3d
Member
Men in Pants, not everybody here is a live service connoisseur like you. What is a shell? You mean like a type of ammo?
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
Pejo
Member
Man, not taking it easy with the thread creation right out of the gate from your return, huh?
Anyways, they'll probably do a $40 or $80 founders version with stupid bullshit and cosmetics and then a f2p rotating character version, in my opinion. They won't do strictly pay-to-play after Concord.
Anyways, they'll probably do a $40 or $80 founders version with stupid bullshit and cosmetics and then a f2p rotating character version, in my opinion. They won't do strictly pay-to-play after Concord.
Radical_3d
Member
Ah, ok. Thanks for the info.
It's going to be 40€$ for the whole game and a deluxe edition with all kind of cosmetics and
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Holammer
Member
40 buckaroonies seems like a likely price considering Concord & HD2's price point. However, Concord belly flopping spectacularly could make them rethink monetization strategy.
They want as many eyes as possible on the game, so why not go F2P. Plus it might be a huge unflushable turd that'll make people wary of buying it.
They want as many eyes as possible on the game, so why not go F2P. Plus it might be a huge unflushable turd that'll make people wary of buying it.
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
Extraction Shooters have a big cheating problem (due to their nature) that is mitigated somewhat by forcing banned players to buy the game again.
FalsettoVibe
Member
Well...how much was Destiny?
March Climber
Member
I'll say my prediction once I'm able to see if it has any form of campaign/PvE, or not, when the 12th arrives.
btw welcome back
Men_in_Boxes
I honestly did miss your posts since not many others discuss MMOs here.
btw welcome back
Men_in_Boxes
I honestly did miss your posts since not many others discuss MMOs here.
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Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
I'll say my prediction once I'm able to see if it has any form of campaign/PvE, or not, when the 12th arrives.
btw welcome back
I honestly did miss your posts since not many others discuss MMOs here.
MiguelItUp
Member
The $40 price tag definitely makes the most sense, but I really can't say what it'll come with. It'll just have to come with a reasonable amount of content for the price, and I'm sure they're aware of it. At least I'd hope so.
I'm just really curious to see how this will all pan out. I'm not the biggest fan of how the game looks, I'm still not too keen on them even bothering using the IP as well. I think I would've been more curious if it was something new all together. But that's neither here nor there. If the game is good, the game is good, and I hope it is. Especially for what's left of Bungie. It's just so hard to feel confident about service/live games these days, especially FPS titles.
I'm just really curious to see how this will all pan out. I'm not the biggest fan of how the game looks, I'm still not too keen on them even bothering using the IP as well. I think I would've been more curious if it was something new all together. But that's neither here nor there. If the game is good, the game is good, and I hope it is. Especially for what's left of Bungie. It's just so hard to feel confident about service/live games these days, especially FPS titles.
Radical_3d
Member
I doubt it. But who knows. Back then nobody could have predicted that XBox would tank so hard.
Guardian Monkey
Member
$70 plus expansions
Edit: Plus some sort of skins store.
Edit: Plus some sort of skins store.
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ChorizoPicozo
Member
I asked the A.I.s this:
What are the 5 best, most popular and financially healthy FPS competitive GaaS right now? (just to give marathon a better chance)
So I ask you this, the intelligentsia of GaaS.
1. Will marathon break the top 5?
if so, the game being displeased is going out of business?
if it fails, is marathon, Bungie and hermen dead?
What are the 5 best, most popular and financially healthy FPS competitive GaaS right now? (just to give marathon a better chance)
1. Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO)
2. Valorant
3. Call of Duty: Warzone (and Warzone 2.0)
4. Rainbow Six Siege
5. Apex Legends/Overwatch 2
So I ask you this, the intelligentsia of GaaS.
1. Will marathon break the top 5?
if so, the game being displeased is going out of business?
if it fails, is marathon, Bungie and hermen dead?
HRK69
Gold Member
How anyone can answer that without seeing the gameplay is beyond me
near
Member
My immediate guess will be no. But it still can be successful. Part of the reason why I don't think it will is due to those games having dedicated esports teams and leagues. Not sure an extraction shooter fits that profile.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
Men_In_Boxes.
Puscifer
Member
The fact there's guides on what to buy with destiny says a lot. Even IO simplified hitman when they got feedback
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
Hopefully it's a RNG pricing model, weighted to the customer for free monthly subs. Fuck Bungie for the endless RNG on massive RAIDs in D1&2. I sure as shit won't be playing Marathon if that shit is in there again.
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adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Variable.
nial
Member
AI was a mistake, this couldn't have taken you more than 5 minutes of basic research.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
Johnny Concrete
Member
Do you mean you have to pay to unlock each 'class' or to have access to extra 'game slots' (like Hunt Showdown).
Because if it's the former that won't be good news…
Because if it's the former that won't be good news…
Bernardougf
Member
Hope the price model is : FAIL
Johnny Concrete
Member
I will never understand why people are coming into a thread to express their hate for a game.
There sure are a lot of games that I don't care about at all, but I'm not going into threads of 'anime style rpg x' to say I hope it's going to fail, because I don't like it.
What would I gain from that?
There sure are a lot of games that I don't care about at all, but I'm not going into threads of 'anime style rpg x' to say I hope it's going to fail, because I don't like it.
What would I gain from that?
Jack Package
Member
My prediction?
Bernardougf
Member
Sony heavy gaas push has fucked up this entire gen in multiple ways.. as soon as this fails they can resume normal programming to a better next gen .... having their prime gaas studio failing would put a final nail in this coffin... so I hope this happens... I want to make a omelet so some eggs have to be broken ... Marathon is the golden goose egg. I hope it implodes.. sorry but not sorry
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HRK69
Gold Member
What would you gain from showing your love for a game?
Miyazaki’s Slave
Gold Member
I am going to say "free to start".
You'll get a few levels (character) to give the game a try then they will entice withnoacks. Ps+ discounts etc.
You'll get a few levels (character) to give the game a try then they will entice withnoacks. Ps+ discounts etc.
Agent_4Seven
Tears of Nintendo
After what they did with Destiny 2, I've absolute ZERO faith in Bungie and I'm pretty sure they learned nothing.
$69,99, tons of predatory MTs, skins, brain-dead emotes, paid expansion with repetitive content which they will then take away from you etc. Get ready folks.
$69,99, tons of predatory MTs, skins, brain-dead emotes, paid expansion with repetitive content which they will then take away from you etc. Get ready folks.
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8BiTw0LF
Consoomer
ShadyAcshuns
Member
$70 upfront, with PS+ required and will offer battle passes @ $20 per three month season. Later on it will probably go f2p and piss a ton of people off.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
Gut Feeling:
I kind of feel this game is gaining hype. one could argue that: the hype is massive and growing.
Without knowing anything about this genre (I haven't even watched gameplay videos) which I assume is somewhat derived from elements of Battle Royale and OGs like DayZ. And being aware of The Division's Dark Zone and Escape from Tarkov as its most representative examples.
The name "Extraction" kind of sounds cool and intriguing, like Mission Impossible (have a plan with roles and execute it), Predator (facing a dangerous unknown/exploration "Environmental Storytelling"), and Heat (confrontation). I think it has an appeal that could combine these aspects in a tighter and more deliberate (designed) way. Based on that, I think the potential is massive and genre-defining.
But of course, we have Bungie's track record, the trouble behind the scenes (production pipeline, engine, etc.), and the recent turmoil and shake-ups:
Marathon has had a troubled development, which isn't a good sign. Bungie's future is riding on the success of this game, and Destiny is basically dead (aint growing), which puts more pressure than usual on them. We also know one of the main issues with live-service games is the amount of content and the pace at which it's delivered, as well as a monetization model that feels sustainable and makes people happy. These are well-known issues and challenges Bungie has faced. Their so called "expertise" fucked them in the ass. (technical term); they were financially fucked. This was a dead-walking company that Sony saved.
My prediction: Similar to The First Descendant, it will have a promising start, but cracks, flaws, and deficiencies will quickly show. Bungie will scramble to fix them. Tough decisions will have to be made: Save Destiny (with Destiny 3) or double down on Marathon. Only one will survive. so, its future is basically a coin flip.
A.I.'s predictions: (I didn't provide data or inputs that could skew the result, i.e., consider Bungie´s internal turmoil and Destiny's issues over the years)
Grok:
The model is a multiplicative form inspired by the Cobb-Douglas production function:
S = k * Q^a * M^b * T^c
Where:
Using our model Marathon's success score is calculated as approximately 78.5. Interpreting this relative to a maximum potential and Bungie's historical benchmarks, the predicted success probability is 75%.
This suggests Marathon has a strong chance of succeeding as a niche hit in the extraction shooter market, driven by Bungie's reputation for quality gunplay, Sony's marketing muscle, and a favorable genre timing. However, risks such as development uncertainties (e.g., layoffs, director changes) and potential player fatigue from Destiny 2 could cap its ceiling. If the April 12, 2025, gameplay reveal delivers polish and innovation, Marathon could achieve 500K–1M sales and sustained live-service engagement. Failure to launch smoothly, however, might limit it to a modest 250K sales and a quieter fade. Overall, it's poised for solid, but not blockbuster, success.
Chat GPT:
S=wV⋅V+wT⋅T+wB⋅B+wH⋅H+wC⋅C+wX⋅X
Where:
And the weights:
Interpretation:
A 63.5% success potential suggests that while Marathon has strong vision and backing, areas such as pre-release hype and market sentiment bring uncertainty. Essentially, it sits in the "promising but risky" category. To improve this score, Bungie could focus on boosting early visibility and community engagement.
Deep Seek:
P = α(Σ w_i · Pre_i) + β(Σ w_j · Launch_j) + γ(Σ w_k · Post_k) - δ(Σ w_l · Risk_l)
Where:
So, around a 60% chance of success and definitely a shaky future for sure; I think it sounds about right.
Men_in_Boxes
will have a hard time regardless, and that's a win in itself
I kind of feel this game is gaining hype. one could argue that: the hype is massive and growing.
Without knowing anything about this genre (I haven't even watched gameplay videos) which I assume is somewhat derived from elements of Battle Royale and OGs like DayZ. And being aware of The Division's Dark Zone and Escape from Tarkov as its most representative examples.
The name "Extraction" kind of sounds cool and intriguing, like Mission Impossible (have a plan with roles and execute it), Predator (facing a dangerous unknown/exploration "Environmental Storytelling"), and Heat (confrontation). I think it has an appeal that could combine these aspects in a tighter and more deliberate (designed) way. Based on that, I think the potential is massive and genre-defining.
But of course, we have Bungie's track record, the trouble behind the scenes (production pipeline, engine, etc.), and the recent turmoil and shake-ups:
Marathon has had a troubled development, which isn't a good sign. Bungie's future is riding on the success of this game, and Destiny is basically dead (aint growing), which puts more pressure than usual on them. We also know one of the main issues with live-service games is the amount of content and the pace at which it's delivered, as well as a monetization model that feels sustainable and makes people happy. These are well-known issues and challenges Bungie has faced. Their so called "expertise" fucked them in the ass. (technical term); they were financially fucked. This was a dead-walking company that Sony saved.
My prediction: Similar to The First Descendant, it will have a promising start, but cracks, flaws, and deficiencies will quickly show. Bungie will scramble to fix them. Tough decisions will have to be made: Save Destiny (with Destiny 3) or double down on Marathon. Only one will survive. so, its future is basically a coin flip.
A.I.'s predictions: (I didn't provide data or inputs that could skew the result, i.e., consider Bungie´s internal turmoil and Destiny's issues over the years)
Grok:
The model is a multiplicative form inspired by the Cobb-Douglas production function:
S = k * Q^a * M^b * T^c
Where:
- ( S ): Success score (a numerical measure of predicted success),
- ( Q ): Quality of the project (e.g., a score from 0 to 100),
- ( M ): Marketing effort (e.g., budget in dollars),
- ( T ): Timing factor (e.g., a value from 0 to 1),
- ( k ): Scaling constant (to adjust the output magnitude),
- ( a, b, c ): Exponents (typically between 0 and 1) representing the elasticity of each factor.
Using our model Marathon's success score is calculated as approximately 78.5. Interpreting this relative to a maximum potential and Bungie's historical benchmarks, the predicted success probability is 75%.
This suggests Marathon has a strong chance of succeeding as a niche hit in the extraction shooter market, driven by Bungie's reputation for quality gunplay, Sony's marketing muscle, and a favorable genre timing. However, risks such as development uncertainties (e.g., layoffs, director changes) and potential player fatigue from Destiny 2 could cap its ceiling. If the April 12, 2025, gameplay reveal delivers polish and innovation, Marathon could achieve 500K–1M sales and sustained live-service engagement. Failure to launch smoothly, however, might limit it to a modest 250K sales and a quieter fade. Overall, it's poised for solid, but not blockbuster, success.
Chat GPT:
S=wV⋅V+wT⋅T+wB⋅B+wH⋅H+wC⋅C+wX⋅X
Where:
- S = Success Potential Index (final score from 0 to 1)
- V = Vision Clarity (score between 0 and 1)
- T = Timing (score between 0 and 1)
- B = Budget & Resource Alignment (score between 0 and 1)
- H = Hype & Pre-release Visibility (score between 0 and 1)
- C = Community & Market Sentiment (score between 0 and 1)
- X = Execution & Trust (score between 0 and 1)
And the weights:
- wV,wT,wB,wH,wC,wXw_V, w_T, w_B, w_H, w_C, w_X are the respective weights for each factor, where:
wV+wT+wB+wH+wC+wX=1w_V + w_T + w_B + w_H + w_C + w_X = 1
Final Result and Interpretation
Marathon's Market Success Potential: ~63.5%Interpretation:
A 63.5% success potential suggests that while Marathon has strong vision and backing, areas such as pre-release hype and market sentiment bring uncertainty. Essentially, it sits in the "promising but risky" category. To improve this score, Bungie could focus on boosting early visibility and community engagement.
Deep Seek:
P = α(Σ w_i · Pre_i) + β(Σ w_j · Launch_j) + γ(Σ w_k · Post_k) - δ(Σ w_l · Risk_l)
Where:
- P: Probability of success (0–1 scale).
- α,β,γα,β,γ: Phase weights (e.g., 0.3, 0.4, 0.3).
- δδ: Risk penalty (e.g., 0.2).
- ww: Variable weights (sum to 1 per phase).
- Pre: Wishlists, social sentiment, beta feedback.
- Launch: Sales, Metacritic, server stability.
- Post: Retention, monetization, content updates.
- Risk: Competition, player dropoff, development cost.
Final Prediction for Marathon
Success Probability: 54%Interpretation:
- Strengths:
- Strong brand recognition (Bungie/Sony backing).
- Polished launch likely (high server stability, solid Metacritic ~85).
- Live-service expertise (Destiny 2 proven model).
- Risks:
- Crowded genre (Tarkov, The Finals, COD: Warzone).
- High development cost ($200M+) demands massive player retention.
- Extraction shooters historically niche (hardcore audience limits growth).
- Outlook:
- Likely Scenario: Solid debut (2-3M players), but long-term success hinges on frequent updates and community engagement.
- Best Case: Breaks into mainstream (5M+ players, Destiny-like cultural impact).
- Worst Case: Fades quickly if retention drops below 40% by Month 3.
Key to Success:
- Aggressive post-launch content (maps, events, collaborations).
- Streamer/influencer partnerships to sustain hype.
- Accessibility tweaks to broaden appeal beyond hardcore fans.
So, around a 60% chance of success and definitely a shaky future for sure; I think it sounds about right.
Men_in_Boxes
will have a hard time regardless, and that's a win in itself
MiguelItUp
Member
ChorizoPicozo
Member
that is the point