Ante up - Predict how successful Marathon will be

How successful will Marathon be?

  • Huge: It will establish itself on console and have a comparable PC audience to the top titles

    Votes: 16 4.3%

  • Moderate: It will find a loyal, moderate audience on console, and become part of a regular rotation

    Votes: 135 36.3%

  • Poor: It will be rejected by console players and not draw in a sizeable PC audience

    Votes: 221 59.4%
  • Total voters
    372
  • This poll will close: .
PSYGN said:
It's bold of them not to have any looting element you get to keep beyond the session (if I heard correct), that's what keeps Destiny alive. That means that their core gameplay will have to be something that you can't find from the likes of Fortnite, CoD, Finals, and Apex. I've only seen some gameplay but I am not seeing anything that would put it on a league of its own, so we'll just have to wait and see. $70 is a pretty high barrier to entry for a game like this that's often F2P. Either their super confident in their formula or out of touch.
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Pretty sure I heard them say the loot you collect can be used in future matches to become stronger, if you're able to extract.
 
Jinzo Prime said:
The original fanbase for Marathon is not large enough for it to matter. They are just using the IP because they own it and can mine it for sparse lore and story drops without having to do everything from scratch.
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That sound like to me Bungie being lazy in creating new IP.

They had it so good with Halo, dropped the ball with Destiny, and now Marathon..what even is it?
 
MayauMiao said:
That sound like to me Bungie being lazy in creating new IP.

They had it so good with Halo, dropped the ball with Destiny, and now Marathon..what even is it?
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Looking at the gameplay, they could have just made a mode for this in destiny 2 and it would be pretty damn close lol.
 
I voted "moderate," because opinions of the gameplay reveal seem extremely polarized.

That said, I'm personally at least somewhat interested and I've never played an extraction shooter before and haven't really played an online shooter since Overwatch, so maybe that counts for something? I love the aesthetics and the loot-based gameplay loop sounds addictive. I just hope the game is accessible to casuals like me, because I didn't understand half the lingo the developers used during the presentation, lol.
 
Maybe if it makes extraction blow up. If it got attention like helldivers but with a bigger budget behind it for content, then maybe?
 
The team that made Tsavo Highway is dead. Their talent are either gone or retired. The only thing the company retains is the know how of how to make a fantastic core game loop without knowing how to develop it. As if a Neanthertal inherited an iPhone 16. All they can do is putting on layers of paint over that same gameplay we all love. But that's not enough. Not when you've seen what others can do with it.

RIP, Bungie, you where one of the greatest.

Master Chief Game GIF by Halo
 
Somewhere between moderate and huge with some room for shenanigans. The shitpost addict in me wants to say this will flop because it seems to lack content and maybe the value isn't so hot, but this is Bungie and they are a known commodity up until they aren't. So I expect it to do well. Could see it tanking too.
 
I can see some potential.

I feel they can really differentiate themselves with that artstyle. It needs a lot more work though apparently.

Right now it doesn't look as good as it should.

I don't think it will be as big as Destiny or other big GAAS titles. Will likely get some 50k concurrent players across all platforms 6 months from release.
 
PixelatedBeast said:
Pretty sure I heard them say the loot you collect can be used in future matches to become stronger, if you're able to extract.
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Yeah, but like any extraction shooter, you lose it if you die next game. And all progression is wiped every season regardless - including reputation.
 
I'd bet on moderate.
The visual style and game type will appeal to people. And regardless of what you think about the studio these days, I think the Bungie name still carries some weight.

I'd think it will do a bit better than The Finals, though with a lower all time peak CCU due to it not being free. After a few months it will settle into 20-25k players on steam (and I'd guess another 15-20k on console)
 
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I voted moderate. It looks polished and coherent in what it's going for at the very least, so I think it can find an audience that likes its direction.

But it comes of as a bit if an acquired taste to me.
 
This poll seems to have a heavy console bias lol

Why would a moderate audience on console be any better than a moderate audience on PC? PS Plus subscriptions? This game is not a system seller.
 
Helldivers 2 did the numbers sony thought/thinks Marathon would get, and Marathon will get the numbers Helldivers 2 was predicted to get.
 
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I'm not an online player and don't even know what is extraction shooter, so can't predict!
I won't play Marathon even if it'll become a +90 on Metacritic with 20 million players, but at least it looks much more cooler than a disaster like Concord and really like its art style and atmosphere.
 
MayauMiao said:
Could even be Destiny 3 and at least Destiny actually have cool armor and weapon design but Marathon...

4o6pTjf.jpeg
QrhUbrz.jpeg
DBbnNi6.jpeg


..like WTF.
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Is it true, all the characters are female looking? I'm fine with playing as female, but the faces are not interesting for me. Why i got feeling that aint female, but unisex machine looks, which might bother some people...

I like the artstyle though : /
 
Hollywood Hitman said:
Bungie screwed over thousands of pvp players in destiny 2....
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I think people forgot how long it took for PvP to become palatable in Destiny 2, then the amount of times it was broken again thereafter.


Grizzled Ghost said:
This poll seems to have a heavy console bias lol

Why would a moderate audience on console be any better than a moderate audience on PC? PS Plus subscriptions? This game is not a system seller.
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It's slightly different because there is no competition on console in the extraction looter space, whereas PC has a couple of established titles that have significant playerbases.

It's plausible that it would be easier to break out in the console space if the game has enough of a hook in its USP compared to retaining PC players who will try it but then return to Tarkov. I can't see this pulling players permanently away from Tarkov, but it may get put into someone's regular weekly rotation to play a few games.
 
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cormack12 said:
It's slightly different because there is no competition on console in the extraction looter space, whereas PC has a couple of established titles that have significant playerbases.

It's plausible that it would be easier to break out in the console space if the game has enough of a hook in its USP compared to retaining PC players who will try it but then return to Tarkov. I can't see this pulling players permanently away from Tarkov, but it may get put into someone's regular weekly rotation to play a few games.
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I don't see why finding moderate success on PC would be worse than finding moderate success on console, though. The goal is not to draw players away from Tarkov, it's to make money. In fact, succeeding on PC, where similar competition exists, would be a greater victory imo.
 
MayauMiao said:
Could even be Destiny 3 and at least Destiny actually have cool armor and weapon design but Marathon...

4o6pTjf.jpeg
QrhUbrz.jpeg
DBbnNi6.jpeg


..like WTF.
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The color grading is just so unappealing. Also maybe Im thinking too much into it, but all the characters seem so... genderless. Sorta amorphous in nature. Guess the whole non-buynary thing going on, I dunno.

Legos? Another way to describe it lol.
 
Depending on price it will vary. If it is full price, I think it may reach between 1 and 3 million within the first couple months.

If it's $40, I think it will reach somewhere between 5 and 8 millions players within the first couple months.

If it's $20 or cheaper I think it will get between 8 and 12 million players.

Regardless I think it will fall off fast, may maintain a loyal hardcore fanbase but will still be viewed as a financial failure and will eventually go F2P to try and get a surge of players to keep the game alive. That will happen shortly after year 1.
 
POKEYCLYDE said:
Depending on price it will vary. If it is full price, I think it may reach between 1 and 3 million within the first couple months.

If it's $40, I think it will reach somewhere between 5 and 8 millions players within the first couple months.

If it's $20 or cheaper I think it will get between 8 and 12 million players.

Regardless I think it will fall off fast, may maintain a loyal hardcore fanbase but will still be viewed as a financial failure and will eventually go F2P to try and get a surge of players to keep the game alive. That will happen shortly after year 1.
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Those are insanely generous estimates. Destiny 2 had less than half a million CCU at it's peak. And it's f2p(ish).
 
QLQ said:
It's this what matters in this board? What happened to appreciating a game if it's good fun? I mean, has anyone seen enough let alone played this game to write it off so quickly? Hasn't Bungie of all devs earned the benefit of the doubt? And what's with the sick obsession around here of wanting pretty much anything to flop? I mean I'm totally against Nintendo ripping people off but I don't want SW2 to flop miserably, how does that help anyone? What's so sinful about Marathon you want it to flop so bad?
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Things flopping sends a message to the industry at large. The message being the players/consumers don't want what is being peddled.

For many, Marathon/Bungie is the symbol of Playstation diverting resources away from single player masterpieces and into games as a service. Of course people want it to fail.
 
From any other dev i would say this is doa after watching the gameplay trailer. But since Bungie has loyal fans and Sony is probably gonna market it big time i say moderate.
 
Grizzled Ghost said:
Those are insanely generous estimates. Destiny 2 had less than half a million CCU at it's peak. And it's f2p(ish).
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I believe Destiny 2 sold 38 millions copies before it went free to play.

Marathon will be multi-platform. Even though Bungie's reputation is waning, they have a pedigree with first person shooters.

Sony wants a GAAS hit. They will market the shit out of Marathon.

AC: Shadows reached 3 million players at full price and it was mired in controversy.

1-3 million players/copies sold at full price isn't generous. It's realistic. At $40, 5-8 million is probable. Helldivers 2 sold 12 million in it's first 3 months, half of that is manageable at $40 for Bungie. And if the game is cheaper.. between free to play and $20, I could see many people saying "Fuck it, I'll give it a shot."
 
I never thought I'd pick the third option regarding a new Bungie shooter, but here we are.

I honestly think this game looks completely uninspiring and I think it'll fail to find its necessary audience quite quickly.

I would welcome and love to be proven wrong, but I don't even think this is a tough call. I mean, just look at it.
 
POKEYCLYDE said:
Depending on price it will vary. If it is full price, I think it may reach between 1 and 3 million within the first couple months.

If it's $40, I think it will reach somewhere between 5 and 8 millions players within the first couple months.

If it's $20 or cheaper I think it will get between 8 and 12 million players.

Regardless I think it will fall off fast, may maintain a loyal hardcore fanbase but will still be viewed as a financial failure and will eventually go F2P to try and get a surge of players to keep the game alive. That will happen shortly after year 1.
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In my opinion predicting the playerbase for this game and any other similar project is very difficult. There are sudden hits no one expected to explode in popularity, some big budget games fail and get shut down (right away or after a few months) and even making a sequel is risky, because people may want to stay with the previous game they like and know.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Helldivers 2 is one of the rare cases of ending up on the popularity chart (more or less) where the publisher expected. But yeah, that was a sequel so people kinda knew what to expect.
 
Lot of underestimating going on and I'm not sure why.

Destiny is an acquired taste but it's still a very popular game. The Halo trilogy is also one of the GOAT FPS franchises.

Bungie's gunplay is top notch.

Once all is said and done I imagine this game will see similar numbers to SoT and Destiny.
 
xrnzaaas said:
In my opinion predicting the playerbase for this game and any other similar project is very difficult. There are sudden hits no one expected to explode in popularity, some big budget games fail and get shut down (right away or after a few months) and even making a sequel is risky, because people may want to stay with the previous game they like and know.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Helldivers 2 is one of the rare cases of ending up on the popularity chart (more or less) where the publisher expected. But yeah, that was a sequel so people kinda knew what to expect.
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I'm just predicting how successful the game will be. A little less vague than saying it will flop, find moderate success or be a massive hit.

Moderate success could be 2 million or 10 million copies sold. I'm just putting actual numbers behind my prediction.
 
It won't be anything close to the monumental flop concord was but it will not do well imo.

I think ita crazy to think that Sony expected this game and Concord plus what ever else, Horizon online? (Hopefully scrapped) we're going to run alongside each other in tandem. Absolute insanity imo.
 
POKEYCLYDE said:
I believe Destiny 2 sold 38 millions copies before it went free to play.

Marathon will be multi-platform. Even though Bungie's reputation is waning, they have a pedigree with first person shooters.

Sony wants a GAAS hit. They will market the shit out of Marathon.

AC: Shadows reached 3 million players at full price and it was mired in controversy.

1-3 million players/copies sold at full price isn't generous. It's realistic. At $40, 5-8 million is probable. Helldivers 2 sold 12 million in it's first 3 months, half of that is manageable at $40 for Bungie. And if the game is cheaper.. between free to play and $20, I could see many people saying "Fuck it, I'll give it a shot."
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AFAIK that 38 million number includes F2P. And even if those are sales, it's not players. It should say something that 90% of your install base bounced off of the game. And a game like Destiny is more approachable than an niche genre like extraction shooter.
 
I think it'll debut launch weekend on Steam in the five-digits and the bigger discussion the month around its launch will be over Bungie's future, not the game itself, which will ultimately result in a quick drop off from the game after that month around when COD 2025 drops
 
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Grizzled Ghost said:
AFAIK that 38 million number includes F2P. And even if those are sales, it's not players. It should say something that 90% of your install base bounced off of the game. And a game like Destiny is more approachable than an niche genre like extraction shooter.
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I guess we'll find out if my predictions are extremely generous at the end of the year.

If you had to put a number on copies sold in the first 3 months, what would you say?
 
Grizzled Ghost said:
I don't see why finding moderate success on PC would be worse than finding moderate success on console, though. The goal is not to draw players away from Tarkov, it's to make money. In fact, succeeding on PC, where similar competition exists, would be a greater victory imo.
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I dunno if we're talking across each other. I don't mean it will be worse - I just think what qualifies as success will be different on those platforms.

PC should be easier theoretically, but it has established titles. Console is a blank slate so looks easier but is a market that rejects this.

Also need to stop comparing HD2 and D2 to this. They are PvE titles really (except for crucible)
 
Not optimistic at all about this.

It depends on how much they planned to hype this with Youtube and Twitch creators.

But I don't think the game will be played by a lot of people for very long. In a few months, it will be dead because it does not offer anything than a F2P game can't do today.

People comparing this to Destiny in term of attractiveness are in for an unpleasant surprise.

Well See The Undertaker GIF by First We Feast
 
Easily grade D level LOL
Not being Negative, but the online shooter market is oversaturated, COD CS Valorant OW run the mainstream market
PUBG introduced a new game comcept,Marvel Rivals bring IP additive, guess who dont have.
 
Banjo64 said:
Lot of underestimating going on and I'm not sure why.

Destiny is an acquired taste but it's still a very popular game. The Halo trilogy is also one of the GOAT FPS franchises.

Bungie's gunplay is top notch.

Once all is said and done I imagine this game will see similar numbers to SoT and Destiny.
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Not sure the "Bungie's top tier" stuff holds much water, personally. Destiny 2 didn't exactly conclude with a bang after pissing off their fans for several years in a row. No one chiefly responsible for Halo remains at Bungie, and most of Destiny's original team is long gone. Much like has-beens such as Bioware, Bungie today is a different animal; a GaaS company with a legacy code base that was bleeding money who scored a USD~$4b cash injection from Sony. We're seeing the fruits of their current team - devs who were weened on a decade of Destiny propped by the company's prior accomplishments. They're gonna have to earn their seat at the table this time around.
 
Bungie is a shadow of their former self. Their name carries little weight anymore. I'm sure Destiny has a (small?) dedicated fanbase, some of which may give Marathon a go, but I doubt that's enough to consider it a success. Otherwise I'm not seeing much interest.

This game being a paid product that will require an online subscription to play on console, plus additional monetization, will scare off a lot of people IMO. So I think it will do poorly.
 
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