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[SJRB]

It's going to be catastrophic.

How can you spend so much time working on a game that aside from its visual style has zero new, innovative or interesting mechanics? And a niche genre to boot - squad-based extraction shooter, are you serious?

What do they think is going to happen?

I'm just completely baffled at how weak this is.

 

[L*][*N*K]

Better than Concord.

That literally says nothing by the way, a nutless moneky is more successful than Concord.

 

[DragonNCM]

I think it will flop.

Concord flop ?
Or hard flop ?

 

[ClanOfNone]

I enjoy Bungie's gunplay. Played through all their Halo campaigns and most of the "story" stuff from Destiny 1 and 2.
This being a multiplayer extraction shooter only means that I'll never touch it. Kinda bummed but it is what it is.

 

[Mayar]

The beauty of giving live service game ratings is that you can bet on failure and in 95% of cases you will be right, and if suddenly the game takes off and becomes popular, falls into the remaining 5%, you can always write - "well, exceptions happen". Win-win lottery.

 

[Chukhopops]

I actually think this one has a chance to be moderately successful e.g. get a big launch and then coast along with a dedicated community. I like the clean and readable art style at the very least.

But there's no way I'm paying for it in September with all the stuff already coming out so hopefully it will survive its launch period and I can try it later.

 

[missiles]

Marathon launches on the same day as Borderlands 4. Totally different games of course, but Borderlands is going to massacre Marathon in sales - a massive, fully fleshed out shooter looter campaign with optional multiplayer, vs a multiplayer only extraction shooter launching with three maps? Not even close.

 

[ClanOfNone]

Marathon launches on the same day as Borderlands 4. Totally different games of course, but Borderlands is going to massacre Marathon in sales - a massive, fully fleshed out shooter looter campaign with optional multiplayer, vs a multiplayer only extraction shooter launching with three maps? Not even close.

I didn't realize Borderlands was dropping same day. Borderlands 3 had some of the worst writing and most annoying characters I've experienced in 40+ years of gaming.
BUT I enjoy the looting and gunplay so much that I've played through it several times to experience the different classes. I'll be there day one for that one.

 

[Zuzu]

I voted for moderate success but I know little about the extraction shooter genre. The gunplay looks good but there's a lot of stuff that sounds like it's barebones and going by the Skillup video the game lacks a core hook that makes you want to keep playing. I don't think I'd release it this year. I would give it another year to add a lot more content that is ready to go from day 1. I wouldn't have gone with classes/heroes either because that sounds too restrictive. I think people want to loot and build their character up in any way they want without being funneled down a semi-predetermined character class.

I also would have added a dedicated solo mode. In the Luke Stephens video he said that Bungie didn't make that mode because they found that people played too stealthy when they trialed it. But even if people play like campers I still think a dedicated solo mode would be something more accessible for a lot of people to try and experiment with in the game.

 

[LazyParrot]

The Bungie name will save it from becoming the next Concord, but not going F2P is going to seriously hobble this game's chances of being as successful as Sony want it to be.

 

[diffusionx]

The art style and aesthetic is pretty dope, I wish it was in a different game.

I know Escape from Tarkov and Hunt Showdown has its fans but this is a niche genre and Marathon doesn't look like the game to push it into the big time. I also don't know if it is even going to be enough to get people who like these types of shooters to switch long-term. And Bungie is kind of a hated company these days even (especially) amongst the people who play their games the most.

I don't see this doing well and Sony is in big trouble.

 

[Hollywood Hitman]

Yea Im not loving the art style it's to tech demo artsy fartsy, if it was a legit game that looked like a new type of arena shooter that was sorts taking crucible into it's own game with 10v10, 30v30 etc.. Matches and loot but the visuals being like a true game wed see in 2025 like the new Doom etc.. I'd be stoked. But this in itself plus being extraction, for me personally I don't see it and that's a shame because I do love bungie gunplay.

 

[cripterion]

It will do same as Concord.

 

[Warnen]

I hope it finds an audience.

 

[Wimbledon]

I think it will be between moderate and poor. We still know no so little so maybe there will be more surprises as we get closer to launch.

But I do think how destiny 1 came out and how it wasn't immediately well received initially, is what's going to happen here.

I also think a lot of the audience will not like this genre. Not necessarily because it's more for sweats but just because of other games on the market.

If I can play a game that has a single player or is a shared world type game but has far more stuff to do then I think most players would gravitate toward those games. Borderlands coming out the same day does not help.

But I do think in time it will have an audience but I also think this is a game that will be dropped very easily. Like Im majorly concerned , I'm interested in playing but I'm also willing to ignore those red flags of the things I didn't like seeing. I don't like going into a game with things I don't enjoy seeing.

Time will tell though but right I'm at a 8.8 on the concerned/disappointment scale here, the only reason I'm hopeful is it's because it's Bungie. But too be honest I'm not sure if that name still holds weight anymore.

 

[QLQ]

Things flopping sends a message to the industry at large. The message being the players/consumers don't want what is being peddled.

For many, Marathon/Bungie is the symbol of Playstation diverting resources away from single player masterpieces and into games as a service. Of course people want it to fail.

That's not the case at all. Bungie is simply not a single player game studio, and it has not being that for over a decade and even during their Halo years when the focus of those games was primarily multiplayer and barely had a 5 hour sp campaign kinda like COD.

You might as well boycott all games as a service, but the fact of the matter is a lot more people are into those games and if it's not your thing it doesn't mean it's going to replace the whole industry. It also doesn't mean it has to suck Maybe for you, but tha's a poor reason for wanting something to fail.

My point was also more an overall assessment of the current trend among the so-called hardcore gamers a forum like Neogaf is supposedly comprised of, where not just GaaS, but many other games including sp games are despised, mocked and harshly criticized before even getting a good preview or beta of it. It was the case for Helldivers 2, AC Shadows more recently. People were even hating on Split-Fiction ffs...And those turned out to be great games, many others hated on turn out fine while of course some will be duds or crap. You wanna hate the entirety of GaaS/multiplayer games, go ahead if that's how you feel but know that you have very weak justifications for it.

 

[diffusionx]

That's not the case at all. Bungie is simply not a single player game studio, and it has not being that for over a decade and even during their Halo years when the focus of those games was primarily multiplayer and barely had a 5 hour sp campaign kinda like COD.

You might as well boycott all games as a service, but the fact of the matter is a lot more people are into those games and if it's not your thing it doesn't mean it's going to replace the whole industry. It also doesn't mean it has to suck Maybe for you, but that a poor reason for waking something to fail.

My point was also more an overall assessment of the current trend among the so-called hardcore gamers a forum like Neogaf is supposedly comprised of, where not just GaaS, but many other games including sp games are despised, mocked and harshly criticized before even getting a good preview or beta of it. It was the case for Helldivers 2, AC Shadows more recently. People were even hating on Split-Fiction ffs...And those turned out to be great games, many other hated on turn out fine while of course some will be duds or crap. You wanna hate the entirety of GaaS/multiplayer games, go ahead if that's how you feel but know that you have very weak justifications for it.

The fact that "more people" are into these games does not tell the full story. Look at the most popular live games and they are almost all old games. It's extremely hard to make a new one and see it break through. For a niche genre like this it seems even harder.

Also - why do people like you get on this forum and then start talking shit about the people on it? If the so-called hardcore gamers on Neogaf suck so bad then go find somewhere else to talk.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

For a niche genre like this it seems even harder.

Escape from Tarkov launched in 2017.

In 2020, it surpassed 200k CCU.

This genre isn't niche. It has all the fundamentals to go big. Long form progression, playing at your own pace, choosing your objectives...It has breakout potential which is why so many AAA devs are taking a shot at it now.

The genre does seem to be pretty complex so the balancing act seems unforgiving.

 

[diffusionx]

Escape from Tarkov launched in 2017.

In 2020, it surpassed 200k CCU.

This genre isn't niche. It has all the fundamentals to go big. Long form progression, playing at your own pace, choosing your objectives...It has breakout potential which is why so many AAA devs are taking a shot at it now.

The genre does seem to be pretty complex so the balancing act seems unforgiving.

how many people are playing Tarkov today?

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

how many people are playing Tarkov today?

No idea but if you look at Tarkov you'll see it's pretty obtuse. The genres fundamentals are so strong that loads of people are willing to climb over that friction to get to the good stuff in EfT.

The genre is waiting for it's PUBG / Fortnite moment. Bungie whiffed.

 

[diffusionx]

No idea but if you look at Tarkov you'll see it's pretty obtuse. The genres fundamentals are so strong that loads of people are willing to climb over that friction to get to the good stuff in EfT.

The genre is waiting for it's PUBG / Fortnite moment. Bungie whiffed.

I am not sure about that. Right now, CS2 has 1.4 million people playing it, PUBG has 700k, and DOTA 2 have 500k. What do all three of these games have in common? They established the genre and 10+ years on remain extremely popular. If you want to talk about obtuse, look at DOTA 2 ffs, yet remains extremely popular.

If Tarkov established the extraction shooter, but has been on the decline for years, it's possible the genre has already peaked, the people who wanted to play these games played Tarkov and got tired of it and moved on. and Marathon is joining the party really late.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I am not sure about that. Right now, CS2 has 1.4 million people playing it, PUBG has 700k, and DOTA 2 have 500k. What do all three of these games have in common? They established the genre and 10+ years on remain extremely popular. If you want to talk about obtuse, look at DOTA 2 ffs, yet remains extremely popular.

Oh no, Escape from Tarkov is obtuse. That's not really debatable. Relatively speaking, the games you listed above are smoothed down to a fine sheen in terms of how approachable they are.

Approachability and depth are two different things.

If Tarkov established the extraction shooter, but has been on the decline for years, it's possible the genre has already peaked, the people who wanted to play these games played Tarkov and got tired of it and moved on. and Marathon is joining the party really late.

The data on Escape from Tarkov isn't readily available. When reliable data isn't common knowledge, it leaves room for grifters to come in and fill the void with their narrative. "X game is dying" is a meme at this point.

Escape from Tarkov could be dying, it could also be maintaining, or it could be growing. We don't know.

My point is that if a game like EfT can hit 200k CCU three years after launch it suggests a more approachable, bigger budget, better designed Extraction Shooter could do big numbers.

There's nothing inherently niche about the genre.

 

[QLQ]

The fact that "more people" are into these games does not tell the full story. Look at the most popular live games and they are almost all old games. It's extremely hard to make a new one and see it break through. For a niche genre like this it seems even harder.

Also - why do people like you get on this forum and then start talking shit about the people on it? If the so-called hardcore gamers on Neogaf suck so bad then go find somewhere else to talk.

Your reply didn't address any of my points, you just felt offended somehow as if that was my intention. Never said anything as generalized as all gamers on Gaf suck. What a snowflake looking ways to be offended and shut down other dissenting opinions. You belong in the purple forum.

 

[Killer8]

Seems like i'm in the minority on GAF who thinks the game looks great, but even with that said, the game feels more like a side-project than the Next Big Thing™ from Bungie. The reception on Youtube is far, far better than Concord though, so people thinking it will do as badly as that are delusional. It's Bungie, so the core mechanics will be A+, but it will basically live or die by how quickly they can roll out more content. I can see it being a modest success long-term but perhaps not the multi-billion dollar success Sony expected when they bought the company.

 

[Hypnosekroete]

PS+ by end of the year and server shutdown 2 years later

 

[SpokkX]

I predict it to get a small hardcore following - kind of like Apex Legends but smaller

Having looked at the videoes this game will scare away casual gamers immediately, me included

It will beat Concord tough

 

[diffusionx]

Your reply didn't address any of my points, you just felt offended somehow as if that was my intention. Never said anything as generalized as all gamers on Gaf suck. What a snowflake looking ways to be offended and shut down other dissenting opinions. You belong in the purple forum.

I addressed your point which is that the popularity of live service games doesn't necessarily mean it is a wise decision to make a new one, it's veryy hard to break through.

You obviously took a sideswipe at the people posting here, don't pretend you didn't, and it's fair to wonder why someone would want to go on a forum full of people they don't want to talk to or have disdain for.

 

[diffusionx]

I predict it to get a small hardcore following - kind of like Apex Legends but smaller

Having looked at the videoes this game will scare away casual gamers immediately, me included

It will beat Concord tough

Everything in videogame history beat Concord.

Apex Legends was a stealth release and blew up like crazy and is still popular. People were attracted to its gameplay mechanics and character design right away. I don't see people raving over what they saw in the Marathon reveal. Comments on YT even pointed out some reused Destiny 2 animations lol. I like the art style but it doesn't seem to be going over well.

 

[SpokkX]

Everything in videogame history beat Concord.

Apex Legends was a stealth release and blew up like crazy and is still popular. People were attracted to its gameplay mechanics and character design right away. I don't see people raving over what they saw in the Marathon reveal. Comments on YT even pointed out some reused Destiny 2 animations lol. I like the art style but it doesn't seem to be going over well.

Oh ok didnt know apex was that big

anyway - this will not hit mainstream imo

 

[QLQ]

I addressed your point which is that the popularity of live service games doesn't necessarily mean it is a wise decision to make a new one, it's veryy hard to break through.

So what if it's "wise" or not? does that make the game automatically shit? People here want the game to fail and it's clearly for other reasons than "oh, it' doesn't have a chance in a niche space", have you even read the posts? And popularity was not my point at all, and I don't see why it should matter to anyone looking to play great games.

You obviously took a sideswipe at the people posting here, don't pretend you didn't, and it's fair to wonder why someone would want to go on a forum full of people they don't want to talk to or have disdain for.

Keep getting offended, you're truly good at that.

 

[diffusionx]

So what if it's "wise" or not? does that make the game automatically shit? People here want the game to fail and it's clearly for other reasons than "oh, it' doesn't have a chance in a niche space", have you even read the posts? And popularity was not my point at all, and I don't see why it should matter to anyone looking to play great games.

Popularity matters - a lot - in a multiplayer game.

Keep getting offended, you're truly good at that.

so you're stupid on top of all the other stuff, what a shame.

 

[QLQ]

Popularity matters - a lot - in a multiplayer game.

so you're stupid on top of all the other stuff, what a shame.

Ok snowflake, your purple is showing. Bye.

 

[asdasdasdbb]

Concord flop ?
Or hard flop ?

I'll say it's mostly dead within 6 months and shut down in a year.

The Bungie name will keep it from being a Concord-level flop.

 

[Fabieter]

Bungie name alone will guarantee moderately successful launch but I don't think it will last.

 

[Lucifers Beard]

I don't really care for this style of gameplay loop. PvP in these types of games makes them stressful to play in my opinion and you'll need to get good or get fucked over by other players. In fact I'd go as far to say this type of extraction game is more annoying than anything else. Tarkov is just painful and DMZ (Warzone) was fucking frustrating.

In my opinion they would have been better off going for all PvE akin to Helldivers.

It being a premium title too won't do it any favours I don't think. If this bombs (which I kind of think it will) then I'd be interested to see how Sony change moving forward. Their studios are doing absolutely nothing I'm interested in at the moment.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Joe Ziegler said that one of the core pillars of Marathon is having a brutal, difficult world that's hard to survive in.

The gameplay clips support that thesis because it shows enemies are close to you, or actively shooting you, basically the entire time.

Nobody wants to be put in Brett Harts Sharpshooter to start every match. The oppressive, one note gameplay tone is a disaster in the making.

People want Battle Royale or Helldivers 2. They want to start in relative safety and choose the dangers that look fun to engage in. They want the tone to resemble a melody.

The tone of Marathons gameplay is just that oppressive EDM music. Wah, wah, wah, wah...

 

[Trogdor1123]

I put moderate. I haven't been following the game too much though

 

[simpatico]

The big question, will it attract people outside of the Destiny faithful? Destiny faithful alone are probably enough to make a game successful. What % of Destiny faithful will it retain having moved to a different genre? Adding in a certain % of Sony first party faithful will surely help. This group changes their tastes based on what Sony studios are releasing, so it should be easier to win them over.

 

[Putonahappyface]

Coming in hot.

 

[Sanepar]

It is already a flop. Number of views on gameplay trailer is really low.

 

[Dr. Samuel Hayden]

Huge numbers on day 1 then a collapse within a year

 

[ZehDon]

... This genre isn't niche. It has all the fundamentals to go big. Long form progression, playing at your own pace, choosing your objectives...It has breakout potential which is why so many AAA devs are taking a shot at it now...

I tend to disagree. The Extraction sub-genre is extremely hardcore; when I lose in Fortnite, the game doesn't delete my stuff. There is actual punishment in an Extraction shooter - there are very, very, very few games that do that. In Extraction shooters, statistically, you'll lose a lot more than you earn. "1 wins needs to cover 100 losses" is the phrase that gets tossed around. Ask yourself: how many casual gamers are going to lose 99 times to earn that 1 win? Marathon might find a new audience on consoles, but just like on PC, I see it being pretty small. Perhaps too small.

 

[Griffon]

I'm gonna go with a mild spike during the first month, then dies progressively over the next 3 months. And put under the rugg within a year, no cancelation or anything announced, just ends up with a skeleton support crew until it's shelved when nobody cares anymore.

 

[sharp weiner]

I think it is DOA

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I tend to disagree. The Extraction sub-genre is extremely hardcore; when I lose in Fortnite, the game doesn't delete my stuff. There is actual punishment in an Extraction shooter - there are very, very, very few games that do that. In Extraction shooters, statistically, you'll lose a lot more than you earn. "1 wins needs to cover 100 losses" is the phrase that gets tossed around. Ask yourself: how many casual gamers are going to lose 99 times to earn that 1 win? Marathon might find a new audience on consoles, but just like on PC, I see it being pretty small. Perhaps too small.

I don't think Escape from Tarkov is popular because it landed on the perfect formula for risk x gain.

I think it vaguely, sloppily, barely landed in the vacinity of that perfect formula and reached 200k CCU in 2020 as a result.

It's worth paying attention to successful games and focusing on the the jankiest, most obtuse, hardest to onboard ones. Those games show us something magic is behind the wall and people are willing to put the most effort into getting over that wall to touch it.

I spent the majority of my gaming life believing that winning was fun and losing was not fun. Then I played Fortnite and experienced long stretches of losing where I had considerably more fun than winning half my games in Overwatch.

The popular belief that Extraction Shooters will always remain niche doesn't check out for me. The genre produces magic moments. It gives players the highest highs and the lowest lowes.

I don't know when these masks became associated with theater but I think they exist because of something in our DNA.

People want highs and lows. The best movies, books, TV are able to illicit both emotions. There isn't a genre in gaming that represents those masks better than the Extraction Genre. I've watched people play other genres and most of them produce the "dead stare". Faces that don't move. Heart rates that don't fluctuate. Those games don't have the magic. They're wood based fires in a world of nuclear reactor cores. The industry just needs to learn how to harness the power.

What I think will happen is that the genre will learn what roguelikes learned. Loss is attractive as long as it isn't too punishing. Marathon Is already providing permanent upgrades and currency to players that aren't lost upon death. Tarkov gives you safe boxes. They're already starting to get this.

 

[Ozzy Onya A2Z]

I tend to disagree. The Extraction sub-genre is extremely hardcore; when I lose in Fortnite, the game doesn't delete my stuff. There is actual punishment in an Extraction shooter - there are very, very, very few games that do that. In Extraction shooters, statistically, you'll lose a lot more than you earn. "1 wins needs to cover 100 losses" is the phrase that gets tossed around. Ask yourself: how many casual gamers are going to lose 99 times to earn that 1 win? Marathon might find a new audience on consoles, but just like on PC, I see it being pretty small. Perhaps too small.

Given the quit rates in pubs for Apex...fuck all are going to hang around for that on console. PC may be a different story but I doubt that too.

The gameplay is going to have to be something else. Personally after watching a 20mins stream of a few squads going at the PvP and PvE I'm really not liking the general "size" of enemies at anything that isn't right in your face. Apex handles outdoors and indoors and transitions through that amazingly well. It's a silent cornerstone of why Apex is so fucking good. Watching the Marathon vids it really feels off in terms of movement, engagement, terrain and transition to indoors/outdoors.

I'm super happy to see shield/health and healing mechanics back but when you look at how far Apex drove all the titles in these sorts of games Bungie haven't really got a magic moment from what I can see e.g. the ping system in Apex is THE standard and became THE standard very quickly.

Given Bungie's slow updates and DLC they'd better have a schedule of daily, weekly challenges and monthly/quarterly content releases and updates. Fortnite, Apex, COD etc all have insane content pipelines, matchmaking and playerbases. Marathon has its work cut out massively.

 

[ZehDon]

... The popular belief that Extraction Shooters will always remain niche doesn't check out for me. The genre produces magic moments. It gives players the highest highs and the lowest lowes...

I don't think you've adequately addressed my comments about punishment: Extraction shooters punish players. That's the ability for the game to retroactively steal your prior highs back. This is because the Extraction loop essentially sets up players to bet their time: if you win the game, your time is rewarded, but if you lose, your time is deliberately wasted. And it can waste the time you gambled yesterday if you lose today because it will delete the gear you already successfully extracted. That's a level of hardcore that most gamers have rejected already. You haven't addressed that - because, frankly, Bungie haven't addressed that. It's literally inherent to the conept.

... People want highs and lows. ...Loss is attractive as long as it isn't too punishing... Marathon Is already providing permanent upgrades and currency to players that aren't lost upon death...

Marathon doesn't innovate at all. All of its mechanics are already available elsewhere, and it's doing nothing to make the Extraction loop accessible or fresh. The Division already did multiple versions of Extraction on the PS4/Xbone, and players stepped away because it was simply too punishing - and that was in a game where the Extraction loot was deliberately better than the rest of the loot tables. Marathon isn't doing anything new - Bungie is just hoping that if it injects its AAA money and polish into someone else's idea, they can capture some of that success. And they'll capture some of it, sure - but I don't think it'll be nearly enough. Not with the kind of preview feedback we're seeing, not with the lack of buzz their big reveal generated. I think this is simply too hardcore a concept, and Bungie has declined too far, for this to be the giant AAA hit Bungie and Sony need it to be.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I don't think you've adequately addressed my comments about punishment: Extraction shooters punish players. That's the ability for the game to retroactively steal your prior highs back. This is because the Extraction loop essentially sets up players to bet their time: if you win the game, your time is rewarded, but if you lose, your time is deliberately wasted. And it can waste the time you gambled yesterday if you lose today because it will delete the gear you already successfully extracted. That's a level of hardcore that most gamers have rejected already. You haven't addressed that - because, frankly, Bungie haven't addressed that. It's literally inherent to the conept.

Roguelike - Severe punishment w permadeath. The only Roguelike you've heard of is Spelunky and (possibly) Caves of Qud.

Roguelite - Less severe punishment with metaprogressiom between runs. The Roguelites you've heard of here are Hades, Slay the Spire, Belatro, Dead Cells, The Binding of Issaac, Darkest Dungeon, Risk of Rain 2...

Both genres punish players. One genre is thriving because it figured out how to balance punishment + progression.

It's like one caveman saying "Fire hot. Fire burns us. Fire always bad" and another caveman saying "Fire warm. Don't get too close. Fire help us cook."

We're willing to embrace an acceptable level of punishment as long as it's balanced with an enticing enough reward.

Most gamers haven't rejected this concept because the concept is brand new. No one here could name 10 Extraction Shooters off the top of their head because the genre was born 10 years ago and games take 5 years to make. Thomas Edison made thousands of light bulbs before he figured it out.

Btw, Bungie has addressed this. Marathon has two forms of metaprogression between rounds. There is a currency you don't lose upon death as well as permanent upgrades you don't lose upon death.

Marathon doesn't innovate at all. All of its mechanics are already available elsewhere, and it's doing nothing to make the Extraction loop accessible or fresh. The Division already did multiple versions of Extraction on the PS4/Xbone, and players stepped away because it was simply too punishing - and that was in a game where the Extraction loot was deliberately better than the rest of the loot tables. Marathon isn't doing anything new - Bungie is just hoping that if it injects its AAA money and polish into someone else's idea, they can capture some of that success. And they'll capture some of it, sure - but I don't think it'll be nearly enough. Not with the kind of preview feedback we're seeing, not with the lack of buzz their big reveal generated. I think this is simply too hardcore a concept, and Bungie has declined too far, for this to be the giant AAA hit Bungie and Sony need it to be.

The Division is largely regarded as Thomas Edisons first attempt at creating the light bulb.

I don't think Marathon is going to be a big hit either. It strikes me as having the same moment to moment gameplay as The Finals which is F2P and hovers around 20k average CCU. Marathon is likely going to be $40. It will be interesting to see how Marathon does, but I'm willing to bet if it does outperform expectations, it'll be due to the high risk, high reward progression aspect and not the moment to moment gameplay.

I remember people saying how Battle Royale was never going to work because you had to wait 2 - 3 minutes between matches and that most of the gameplay was boring looting.

There's a lot of common beliefs that end up being wrong.

 

[ZehDon]

... Btw, Bungie has addressed this. Marathon has two forms of metaprogression between rounds. There is a currency you don't lose upon death as well as permanent upgrades you don't lose upon death...

Well, sort of - Bungie have copied other developers who addressed this stuff. And their solutions didn't ignite widespread interest. Also worth noting: all progression is wiped every three months. That's something that Extraction shooters need to keep the playing field level, but it also means the treadmill this sub-genre creates doesn't offset the punishment. Your wins are few, your losses are many, and your spoils are temporary. That's a very tough sell.

... I don't think Marathon is going to be a big hit either. It strikes me as having the same moment to moment gameplay as The Finals which is F2P and hovers around 20k average CCU...

That's kind of what I'm talking about though: Bungie are a monster of a AAA publisher / developer. If Marathon tops out at 20k CCU, Bungie are in serious trouble. That's downsizing and layoff territory for a studio of their sheer size.

... I remember people saying how Battle Royale was never going to work because you had to wait 2 - 3 minutes between matches and that most of the gameplay was boring looting...

That's a fair analogy; no one expected Battle Royale to grow as big as it has. But that's because it had a game like PUBG that pushed the concept and delivered a brand new experience to the hardcore, where a lot of players bought in to try something basically brand new - and then a game like Fortnite came along and tailored it for the casual audience. Fortnite had a plethora of variations, modes, characters, and content that it's built up as the game has grown. If Tarkov was PUBG, then Marathon isn't Fortnite.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Well, sort of - Bungie have copied other developers who addressed this stuff. And their solutions didn't ignite widespread interest. Also worth noting: all progression is wiped every three months. That's something that Extraction shooters need to keep the playing field level, but it also means the treadmill this sub-genre creates doesn't offset the punishment. Your wins are few, your losses are many, and your spoils are temporary. That's a very tough sell.

Even though the roguelite genre is much more successful than the roguelike genre, most of the games in it still fail. All genres are like this.

So when you say "Extraction Shooters already implemented meta progression and it didn't ignite widespread interest", that doesn't mean much because there have been so few Extraction Shooters made.

Also, you act like permanence is required in the genre when no multiplayer game has permanence. Every multiplayer game is an ephemeral grind. We play these games over and over because the loop is fun, not because the loop is permanent.

Playing a mini PvP RPG that resets every 3 months sounds awesome. My games in The Finals or Valorant reset every 8 - 40 minutes.

That's kind of what I'm talking about though: Bungie are a monster of a AAA publisher / developer. If Marathon tops out at 20k CCU, Bungie are in serious trouble. That's downsizing and layoff territory for a studio of their sheer size.

That's a total guess. Destiny 2 makes heaps of money. At one point Bungie had 1,500 employees because Destiny 2 was making so much bank. Now Bungies count is down to around 750. It's possible that Destiny 2 + a modestly successful Marathon make more than enough money to support a 750 person studio.

Plus, no one likes to talk about this...but Bungie has the most effective monetization practices in the industry. Destiny 2 is roughly the 35th most played game on Steam and regularly places in the top 10 highest grossing games every year. Rare was 200 employees large when Microsoft called Sea of Thieves their most successful new IP of the generation. Sea of Thieves regularly floated around 15k players on Steamcharts and wasn't released on PlayStation until recently.

The Marathon team (around 300) can do similar numbers as SoT and if its monetization is effective, it'll be fine.

That's a fair analogy; no one expected Battle Royale to grow as big as it has. But that's because it had a game like PUBG that pushed the concept and delivered a brand new experience to the hardcore, where a lot of players bought in to try something basically brand new - and then a game like Fortnite came along and tailored it for the casual audience. Fortnite had a plethora of variations, modes, characters, and content that it's built up as the game has grown. If Tarkov was PUBG, then Marathon isn't Fortnite.

You could be right here. Time will tell.

But again, just because the Battle Royale Spellbreak (released in 2018) wasn't successful doesn't mean Fall Guys (released 2019), Apex Legends (released 2019), Warzone (2020), and Naraka Bladepoint (2021) weren't wildly successful.

If Marathon fails, it's not proof that the genre is niche. It just means that version of the genre didn't put the pieces together properly.