Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

DrFigs said:
I ended up buying new tv and computer. Idk if the tariffs are expected to cause these things to increase in price or not, and it seems more likely every day that Trump will change his mind. But I also don't really want to put money into the stock market rn either.
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What did you get?
 
Nocty said:
he's just another fintwit grifter

The space is literally filled with weird, often fraudulant grifters. One of the worst is this guy 'FinanceLancelot' who is borderline tinfoil hat conspiracy nutjob. He puts out near constant bullshittery and complex looking charts, but reality is he and others like him have no idea what they are doing. It's a big echo chamber of herp derps. Another one that drives me insane is Banana3stocks, guy is clearly paper trading and his hoardes of retarded followers think he's real. He would have gone dead broke 100 times over with his awful gambling trades.
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Not in the same category as the batch you just listed.

He doesn't post his opinion on news and doesn't post charts etc. It's literally just the major news from bloomberg terminal that he's reposting, it 100% matched up with what I saw when I had terminal access for a year (not worth it btw).

But yeh, that banana3 guy is a complete nutjob.
 
Great Auk said:
What did you get?
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Bought an LG c4 :)
And the new MacBook Air. :)
And a ps5 pro :)

i was going to get the these things at some point this year anyway. Maybe I could have waited, but I didn't want to risk the prices going up. Things are so uncertain rn.
 
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XICEMAN said:
Any Suggestion (Etf preferred, single stock accepted ) for an high dividend portfolio in this fun tariff's age situation ?
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VYM
SPHD
SCHD
JEPI
JEPQ
GPIX

That's in order of least risky to most risky. The bottom 3 do your research on because they utilise ETN's to varying degrees.
 
Baemono said:
Me neither, and I opened a trading account end of last year, I'm glad I didn't put anything yetI do plan on putting money in SGOV at least for now.
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Well I do plan on continuing to put more money in SGOV. I just don't want to put anything into stocks.
 
so, about that rare earth suspension, are we officially just living a game now?

Sf6wFOT.jpeg
 
DrFigs said:
Bought an LG c4 :)
And the new MacBook Air. :)
And a ps5 pro :)

i was going to get the these things at some point this year anyway. Maybe I could have waited, but I didn't want to risk the prices going up. Things are so uncertain rn.
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Nice trio!

All three are excellent choices.
 
JayK47 said:
So who do I get mad at now that my stocks are doing well? The board is all green today.
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SPY is still down 7-7.5% YTD. Daily fluctuations amid incompetent financial and economic administration doesn't resolve the underlying volatility.

There are still on again, off again tariffs to deal with and lack of confidence in the US economy.
 
DrFigs said:
Bought an LG c4 :)
And the new MacBook Air. :)
And a ps5 pro :)

i was going to get the these things at some point this year anyway. Maybe I could have waited, but I didn't want to risk the prices going up. Things are so uncertain rn.
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Nice. I got a c4 a few months ago. Thinking an hour disconnecting it from the internet cause Holy shit is that opening screen annoying and filled with ads
 
SlimySnake said:
This made me laugh.

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Frank Luntz is so disingenuous. Let's say the surveyed people actually represent an accurate sampling of America (which is questionable at this time) that's still 25% of people who actually said they'd be BETTER OFF working in a factory.

That would equate to many millions of people.

Frank Luntz is such an elitist.
 
Grildon Tundy said:
Need to see the demographics of who was surveyed. If it was representative of the US population, this is telling (and interesting). If it was mainly white-collar people, then it makes total sense already.
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It's linked in the post you're quoting.

The respondents in each survey were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, education. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2019 American Community Survey 1-year sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). Each set of matched cases were weighted to its sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, region, and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the f inal weight
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Great Auk said:
Frank Luntz is so disingenuous. Let's say the surveyed people actually represent an accurate sampling of America (which is questionable at this time) that's still 25% of people who actually said they'd be BETTER OFF working in a factory.

That would equate to many millions of people.

Frank Luntz is such an elitist.
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Do people not understand how surveys work?

Even if they were to somehow get a sample that was mostly white collar, the survey would compensate by giving less weight to those responses. Yes, there is a margin of error with this but it's in the order of a few percentage points (2% in this case), not 50.
 
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Great Auk said:
Frank Luntz is so disingenuous. Let's say the surveyed people actually represent an accurate sampling of America (which is questionable at this time) that's still 25% of people who actually said they'd be BETTER OFF working in a factory.

That would equate to many millions of people.

Frank Luntz is such an elitist.
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He pretty much addressed this in his follow up tweet, showing both sides of looking at this data:

 
Dr.Guru of Peru said:
It's linked in the post you're quoting.






Do people not understand how surveys work?

Even if they were to somehow get a sample that was mostly white collar, the survey would compensate by giving less weight to those responses. Yes, there is a margin of error with this but it's in the order of a few percentage points (2% in this case), not 50.
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Not exactly. Can't be fussed to format this:

"YouGovinterviewed 2109 respondentsbetweenFebruary22–29,2024whowerethenmatched down to a sample of 2000 to produce the fnal dataset. The respondents werematched to asampling frameongender, age, race, andeducation. Thesampling frameisapolitically representative "modeled frame" of US adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata fle, public voter fle records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National ElectionPool(NEP) exitpoll,andthe2020 CES surveys, including demographicsand 2020presidential vote."

So if I can assume this is representative of US workers, where 65% are white collar, 30% are blue collar and the rest are hybrid/service, then, yes, most are white collar, and the outcome isn't very surprising.
 
Dr.Guru of Peru said:
Even if they were to somehow get a sample that was mostly white collar, the survey would compensate by giving less weight to those responses. Yes, there is a margin of error with this but it's in the order of a few percentage points (2% in this case), not 50.
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I didn't know if it was a scientific poll or something more along the lines of an online survey. That's why I said I wasn't sure if it was representative.
 
Grildon Tundy said:
Not exactly. Can't be fussed to format this:

"YouGovinterviewed 2109 respondentsbetweenFebruary22–29,2024whowerethenmatched down to a sample of 2000 to produce the fnal dataset. The respondents werematched to asampling frameongender, age, race, andeducation. Thesampling frameisapolitically representative "modeled frame" of US adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata fle, public voter fle records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National ElectionPool(NEP) exitpoll,andthe2020 CES surveys, including demographicsand 2020presidential vote."

So if I can assume this is representative of US workers, where 65% are white collar, 30% are blue collar and the rest are hybrid/service, then, yes, most are white collar, and the outcome isn't very surprising.
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I'm not following. You said in your earlier post that the if the poll was representative of the general population it would be telling. Now it seems like you're saying it's not because you've just realized that the general population is mostly white collar? If so who should they be polling?
 
Dr.Guru of Peru said:
I'm not following. You said in your earlier post that the if the poll was representative of the general population it would be telling. Now it seems like you're saying it's not because you've just realized that the general population is mostly white collar? If so who should they be polling?
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I originally assumed that the majority wasn't white collar. Apparently it is!
 
Great Auk said:
Thank you for this post. At least he mentioned that there is a huge potential of willing workers for factory jobs. Not just willing, but saying they'd be better off. That's quite telling.
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Protip: 100% guarantee that 99% of the "willing" polled are retail/food/service/low-level-tradesman who assume these factory jobs will start them at wages 50-100% higher than they earn now, that they will still get to call in sick 20-30% of the year for their drug/alcohol benders, and dick around on their phone for 3/4ths of the day like they do now. If this poll required viewing a time lapse of the average work day and schedule at a major US factory (never mind a Chinese one), that 25% would change to 2.5%. Having lived in towns with large manufacturing plants, every single door in them is revolving cause most of the people willing to do them would much rather do "gig economy" shit on their own time.
 
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Haint said:
Protip: 100% guarantee that 99% of the "willing" polled are retail/food/service/low-level-tradesman who assume these factory jobs will start them at wages 50-100% higher than they earn now, that they will still get to call in sick 20-30% of the year for their drug/alcohol benders, and dick around on their phone for 3/4ths of the day like they do now.
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Ngl, you sound like a terrible person here.
 
Haint said:
Protip: 100% guarantee that 99% of the "willing" polled are retail/food/service/low-level-tradesman who assume these factory jobs will start them at wages 50-100% higher than they earn now, that they will still get to call in sick 20-30% of the year for their drug/alcohol benders, and dick around on their phone for 3/4ths of the day like they do now. If this poll required viewing a time lapse of the average work day and schedule at a major US factory (never mind a Chinese one), the 25% would change to 2.5%. Having lived in towns with large manufacturing plants, every single door in them is revolving cause most of the people willing to do them would much rather do "gig economy" shit on their own time.
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Having worked in a factory, your characterization is WAY off!

Plus, it's a revolving door because of poor work conditions or seeing how pay comes out or crappy bosses. NOTHING like what you said which sounds elitist AF!
 
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Mr Reasonable said:
Ngl, you sound like a terrible person here.
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No, it's called first hand experience. I work as a hiring manager and supervisor in the construction industry, I look at resumes, trends in work history, and competing job listings for a living. I have watched other subcontractor's people stand in an empty room on a job site for a week, literally 8 hour straight days, playing on their phone. I've had guys lay down and sleep for 5 hours, I've had guys who have never worked a full work week without calling in drunk. For pre-apprentice no experience required helper roles at ~$15/hr, on average >50% of applicants haven't held a job longer than 3 months, they perpetually bounce around to different retail/food/uber positions, and >90%+ haven't held one longer than a year. Our standards are 1/1000th of what a major manufacturer would require.

DeafTourette said:
Having worked in a factory, your characterization is WAY off!

Plus, it's a revolving door because of poor work conditions or seeing how pay comes out or crappy bosses. NOTHING like what you said which sounds elitist AF!
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That is exactly my point. The overwhelming super majority of these "willing" respondents do not understand these $20-$25/hr factory jobs come with incredibly high standards, constant supervision, terrible schedules, and much worse conditions than they're accustomed to. They think they're going to roll in an hour late, finish their day's task in a hour or two, and jerk off the rest of the day. That's not how it works. That's even ignoring the most obvious pitfall of how paying American's $25+/hr is ever going to compete with $1 in Vietnam or China.
 
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Haint said:
No, it's called first hand experience. I work as a hiring manager and supervisor in the construction industry, I look at resumes, trends in work history, and competing job listings for a living. I have watched other subcontractor's people stand in an empty room on a job site for a week, literally 8 hour straight days, playing on their phone. I've had guys lay down and sleep for 5 hours, I've had guys who have never worked a full work week without calling in drunk. For pre-apprentice no experience required helper roles at ~$15/hr, on average >50% of applicants haven't held a job longer than 3 months, they perpetually bounce around to different retail/food/uber positions, and >90%+ haven't held one longer than a year. Our standards are 1/1000th of what a major manufacturer would require.



That is exactly my point. The overwhelming super majority of these "willing" respondents do not understand these $20-$25/hr factory jobs come with incredibly high standards, constant supervision, terrible schedules, and much worse conditions than they're accustomed to. They think they're going to roll in an hour late, finish their day's task in a hour or two, and jerk off the rest of the day. That's not how it works. That's even ignoring the most obvious pitfall of how paying American's $25+/hr is ever going to compete with $1 in Vietnam or China.
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The way you twisted my words is next level.
 
Haint said:
Protip: 100% guarantee that 99% of the "willing" polled are retail/food/service/low-level-tradesman who assume these factory jobs will start them at wages 50-100% higher than they earn now, that they will still get to call in sick 20-30% of the year for their drug/alcohol benders, and dick around on their phone for 3/4ths of the day like they do now. If this poll required viewing a time lapse of the average work day and schedule at a major US factory (never mind a Chinese one), that 25% would change to 2.5%. Having lived in towns with large manufacturing plants, every single door in them is revolving cause most of the people willing to do them would much rather do "gig economy" shit on their own time.
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The first time I worked in a factory making shit on an assembly line, it was a summer job during university.

First and only time in life working anywhere (office jobs, restaurant, more blue collar places) where the lazy ass full timers told me to work less and stop machines early.

I worked the evening shift, so it ended at 12:30 am and the supervisors werent the day shift managers. The night supervisor was one of the other line workers.

I'd keep churning out product, and shut down production at 12:15 am, purge the machine of plastic, sweep the floor and log in my production count in a binder. Easiest job in the world.

I guess I was making too much product because the vet workers (all lazy fucks) would shut down around 11:30 pm and read a Toronto Sun for the last hour. Then at 12:30 am, check out punching the time card. No shame too, because all the vets did it from the different production rooms and would hang out in the kitchen for the final hour. I'd still be making tools at the machine. But funny how when I'd show up at 3:45 pm getting ready for my shift all the day workers worked to the end as the day managers were still there tracking things.

And line workers wonder why managers think they are lazy. It was such an easy job I learned how to do the entire job from loading, making and purging in my first week of work and all these other guys cant even handle that putting in an honest days work to the end of their shift.

Fuck em. I just did my job and worked to the end of my shift.
 
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Man this is why you should always double check and check a story for yourself.

It was posted here in quoted tweets (and to be fair, it was framed this way in general media headlines as well) that China halted rare earth materials to the USA as a direct result of the trade war.

But China halted shipments to the entire world, not just the USA.

Completely disingenuous framing.

I also think this is kind of a bad move by China. They're showing the world that Trump is right, they do actually have everyone by the balls, and maybe we should stop relying on them for literally everything, especially because they cheat and steal.
 
Great Auk said:
I also think this is kind of a bad move by China. They're showing the world that Trump is right, they do actually have everyone by the balls, and maybe we should stop relying on them for literally everything, especially because they cheat and steal.
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Everybody already knew this though. This isn't new information to anyone who's been paying attention. As someone pointed out, Call of Duty had a campaign story line about this exact scenario years ago.

The issue is if we're dependent on them, we should setup a long term plan to slowly disentangle ourselves and rebuild that industry elsewhere. Just blowing things up with China and halting global commerce isn't a strategy for fixing the problem. It actually makes everything worse.
 
Great Auk said:
Man this is why you should always double check and check a story for yourself.

It was posted here in quoted tweets (and to be fair, it was framed this way in general media headlines as well) that China halted rare earth materials to the USA as a direct result of the trade war.

But China halted shipments to the entire world, not just the USA.

Completely disingenuous framing.

I also think this is kind of a bad move by China. They're showing the world that Trump is right, they do actually have everyone by the balls, and maybe we should stop relying on them for literally everything, especially because they cheat and steal.
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Can you show where they have stated they will be restricting exports of rare earth minerals on a global basis?

All I can find are news articles which state they export restrictions are a direct response to US tarrifs and that these new measures are to ensure the US specifically are restricted going forwards:

Shipments stopped on April 4, the sources familiar with the matter said, when Beijing restricted the export of seven rare earths and related material used across the defense, energy and automotive industries as part of its retaliation against U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff hikes on Chinese goods.
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Exporters must now apply to the Ministry of Commerce for licenses, a relatively opaque process that can range from six or seven weeks to several months. Reuters reported last month there had been no antimony exports to European Union countries since China put the metal on a control list in September.
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If the freeze lasted longer than two months, then the typical stockpiles built up by customers could deplete, they said, adding it could be especially difficult for U.S. clients to get export licenses given the escalating trade war between the superpowers.
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It is unclear how many cargoes scheduled for shipment have been affected.
China's commerce ministry and customs department did not respond to faxed questions from Reuters outside of office hours.
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And:

Chinese exporters of the restricted rare earths have already reported a halt to shipments as they await licenses from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, a system which gives Beijing the ability to regulate the flow of the minerals in the case of a protracted trade war.
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So in summary it looks like they have halted all exports other than those with additional approval in order to get tighter controls of where they will be exported, in order to ensure the US is excluded.
 
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I'm still DCAing into my SP index fund, QQQ, and SCHG.

I don't wanna be one of those people who miss out on recessions by trying to time the bottom....the same people who keep saying "Don't buy the dip idiots, this is only the begining"

Even if my timing is off and the market goes down another ten percent....at least I didn't buy anything in 2024. I bought one day in January which was a mistake, but nothing in February and only started DCAing in March when it was already low.
 

Early Thursday morning, Trump lashed out at the Fed leader in a social media post, saying the US central bank is lagging behind its European counterpart. The European Central Bank later Thursday morning announced it is cutting interest rates for the seventh time in the past year.

"Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete 'mess!' Trump wrote. "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough!"
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But Powell's comments weren't unlike those of other Fed officials in recent weeks. Most have said Trump's tariffs are likely to push up inflation and unemployment. Some billionaires, such as Ray Dalio, have taken criticism of Trump's tariffs a step further, saying the US economy might be in or near a recession already.
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Every day it's looking more and more likely that we might actually be fucked.
 
Madflavor said:
Every day it's looking more and more likely that we might actually be fucked.
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oh we are 100% fucked

this earmings season is going to be tough. 3 weeks of Earnings calls and lowered guidance incoming.

The thing is, Trump has no powers at all to remove Fed chair Powell. It's a system that was set up long ago by the central banking elite to have full control over money supply.

In effect, the president is the fed's bitch. Trump knows this and it pains him, that is why he is lashing out.

this is a very old doc by now, but it gives a great indepth look at how the US monetary system and in particular how thr Fed actually works, why it was established and how powerful it really is.



to quote directly from the doc, 'let me control the supply of money, and I care not who the president is' I believe a famous Rothschild quote.

In short, the fed independence is deliberate—it's meant to insulate the Fed from political pressure, so it can make long-term decisions about monetary policy without worrying about political consequences.
 
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Call me crazy...

But I don't want the lunatic who called for negative interest rates BEFORE COVID... to have any fucking control of the Fed.


Trump is a walking economic disaster.
 
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Trump administration announces fees on Chinese ships docking at U.S. ports

  • The Trump administration on Thursday announced fees on Chinese-built vessels.
  • The U.S. government began investigating China's dominance in the shipbuilding industry, where it manufactures as much as 75%-80% of fleets, during the Biden administration.
  • Steep levies on Chinese-made ships arriving at U.S. ports have been proposed, up to as much as $1.5 million, as part of a plan to bring more ship manufacturing back to the U.S., a policy which has bipartisan support.
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Trump just torpedoed the US shipping industry.

Once again, the US doesn't have the capacity for manufacturing to actually build ships on a large scale. The US can build 4-5 ships a year.
 
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