(Digital Foundry) At What Point Did Xbox Lose the Current-Gen Console War?

It's down to over 15 years of fuck ups and not having a single GOTY contender since Gears of War 3

2007 - RROD
2010 - Kinect focus
2012 - Halo 4
2013 - TV, TV, TV, Kinect, DRM, weak hardware
2016 - cross buy with PC
2020 - Series being the first console to launch without a single exclusive
2024 - porting games to PS5
2025 - console and Gamepass price hike
2025 - releasing games day and date on PS5

All of these have combined to kill the Xbox brand. Phil Spencer bemoaned losing the previous generation where people built their digital libraries, yet started the GamePass initiative resulting in barely anyone owning a library at all now.

Both Mattrick and Spencer share equal blame, Nadella just took it out back and put it out of its misery.
 
Xbox lost the console war with RROD on 360.

During the 7th generation, Xbox had made major inroads with the 360. They had their boot on Sony's neck since Sony had majorly botched the PS3 reveal and launch. Blood was in the water. But in their desperation to beat Sony to market on the 7th generation, they rushed the 360's development, cut far too many corners, and unleashed a highly defective product on the public with the highest failure rate in console history.

Just as Xbox could've been preparing to land finishing blows on Sony, they were forced to let up and go put out the fire that was RROD, dumping $1.1 billion into it. Money that could have gone to locking down a lot more marketing and exclusives. Meanwhile, Sony saw their chance and spent the money to secure more deals, to make the PS3 more cost-effective and slash it's price, and they had Naughty Dog teach the rest of the industry how to properly program games for the PS3 so they wouldn't suck.

As Sony began releasing big, heavy hitters for the PS3, in the middle of the geneation, Xbox rested on its laurels after 2010 and Halo: Reach devoting most of their efforts to Kinect. Sony continued to push out huge first party exclusives that defined the generation in the later years of the generation, and then Sony knocked it out of the park with the PS4 reveal, whereas the XB1 reveal was something that Xbox to this day still has never recovered from and never will.

It was the moment of the XB1 reveal that Xbox lost the trust of gamers and they've been flailing ever since to get it back. they made some progress on this front with efforts like backwards compatibility and the initial affordability of Gamepass. But those days are both long gone.

Xbox is a spent force with little left of it that isn't acquired from ABK or Zenimax. There is nothing that can make them recover as a platform holder. They can pretend they are still a platform all they like, but the entire industry recognizes that they are a third party publisher now.

Christmas 2007, just look at their winter lineup, they should have been doing laps around Sony at that point.

While Peter Moore left of his own accord (family reasons) I do think RROD was starting to make his position untenable.

Xbox had 6 excellent years of momentum and as soon as Mattrick and the suits take over you can see the decline start almost immediately.

Xbox peaked here…

 
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People put too much weight on that episode. Sure, it was tremendously impactful to core gamers, but the general public barely registered it.

The thing is, Xbox always prided itself on being about power. This worked pretty well as long as PC was still a bit of esoterica for most gamers, and the PS3 was too expensive and struggling with multiplats.
But in the PS4/X1 era, PC was a mature platform that was also getting console games, and the economy allowed people to build a good gaming PC without breaking the bank. At that point, a PC was a better proposition for gamers wanting the best performance. Meanwhile, Sony had eaten a slice or two of humble pie and was back with good prices and excellent exclusives, while Xbox cheaped out on performance and bet everything on digital and non-gaming stuff. That is the thing they never recovered from. Not the used games charade.
No one said it was just one thing that killed Xbox, it was a multitude of fuck ups, the used game charade was just the final nail in the coffin.
 
You could probably choose multiple points that cumulatively added up, but to me it was in 2023 with the disastrous Redfall followed by a mid Starfield where the hard pivot happened.
 
You think people are not buying because there is no supply, but reality is there is no supply because people are not buying.
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I don't know about console war but I lost interest in Xbox when they stopped making the games I like.

I would argue Sony first party also stopped making the games I like but thankfully 3rd party makes me want to keep my PS5 around.
 
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Xbox lost the console war with RROD on 360.

During the 7th generation, Xbox had made major inroads with the 360. They had their boot on Sony's neck since Sony had majorly botched the PS3 reveal and launch. Blood was in the water. But in their desperation to beat Sony to market on the 7th generation, they rushed the 360's development, cut far too many corners, and unleashed a highly defective product on the public with the highest failure rate in console history.

Just as Xbox could've been preparing to land finishing blows on Sony, they were forced to let up and go put out the fire that was RROD, dumping $1.1 billion into it. Money that could have gone to locking down a lot more marketing and exclusives. Meanwhile, Sony saw their chance and spent the money to secure more deals, to make the PS3 more cost-effective and slash it's price, and they had Naughty Dog teach the rest of the industry how to properly program games for the PS3 so they wouldn't suck.

As Sony began releasing big, heavy hitters for the PS3, in the middle of the geneation, Xbox rested on its laurels after 2010 and Halo: Reach devoting most of their efforts to Kinect. Sony continued to push out huge first party exclusives that defined the generation in the later years of the generation, and then Sony knocked it out of the park with the PS4 reveal, whereas the XB1 reveal was something that Xbox to this day still has never recovered from and never will.

It was the moment of the XB1 reveal that Xbox lost the trust of gamers and they've been flailing ever since to get it back. they made some progress on this front with efforts like backwards compatibility and the initial affordability of Gamepass. But those days are both long gone.

Xbox is a spent force with little left of it that isn't acquired from ABK or Zenimax. There is nothing that can make them recover as a platform holder. They can pretend they are still a platform all they like, but the entire industry recognizes that they are a third party publisher now.
The ps4 is actually the first console to rely on raw power, Xbox One didn't do that, instead, they foreseen the PS4 future and changed their design accordingly. It's because they're in 3rd place, fanboys bs doesn't work here cause we're talking about a billion dollar corporations.
 
No one said it was just one thing that killed Xbox, it was a multitude of fuck ups, the used game charade was just the final nail in the coffin.
Page 1 of this thread shows that not a few people see that one as the beginning of the end, which it objectively can't be, except in the brain of people who were rabid console warriors at the time. Quite ironically, it was one of the few things that would eventually become inevitable. Xbox just tried it a bit too early. And it was still pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things, as the market would skew heavily towards digital in the span of that gen.
 
This was the beginning of the end:

The modern "Play Anywhere" program was officially announced at E3 2016 and launched on September 13, 2016, with the initial supported games being ReCore and Quantum Break. It allows players to buy a digital game once and play it on both an Xbox console and a Windows 10/11 PC, with shared saves, add-ons, and achievements.
 
I'll add another, Master Chief Collection being released in a broken state and taking years to fix.
 
They started out right with the Xbox 360.

Great hardware
Great price
Great messaging
Great games

The perfect combination for success.

RROD happened, but they did right by buyers and replaced units (and they weren't alone with PS3's YLOD)

But then the men is suits got involved and started chasing everything they could at the expense of the good work started at the beginning.

They prioritised Kinect, forcing first-party studios to make games that just weren't what gamers wanted, just as Sony woke up from their disastrous PS3 launch and started to do the exact opposite.

Then came Xbox One.

They prioritised Kinect again, pushing up the price of weaker hardware.

They became obsessed with getting Windows into living rooms. TV, TV, TV was born so they could have an "always on" device.

They chased mobile users by pushing pointless multi-screen functions.

And to top it all off, they spat in gamer's eyes with their DRM plans

They focused too closely on their key franchises, flogging Halo, Gears and Forza to death.

All of this when they could have just done what they did at the start of the 360 generation.

The came Xbox Series X|S.

They had great hardware with the Series X, but having to support Series S curtailed developer ambitions.

They had no exclusive games - everything was simply "optimized for" Series X|S

When they finally did get exclusive games out, GamePass was squeezing budgets and development time resulting a raft of disappointing releases, all in the name of "engagement".

Instead of investing in their own studios to raise standards, Xbox bet billions of MS money on acquisitions, trying to buy up the industry.

But when MS wanted to see a return on that "investment" Xbox had no choice but to release games on PlayStation to bring in some cash.

At that point, it's over.
 
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You could probably choose multiple points that cumulatively added up, but to me it was in 2023 with the disastrous Redfall followed by a mid Starfield where the hard pivot happened.

I firmly believe those games flopping and failing to raise console sales following the Activision merger triggered the shift to third party and thus, the end of the Xbox console business.
 
They've offered most of my most memorable gaming experiences in my lifetime.

As good as an Uncharted 2 or Last of Us is, you can't top all nighters with the homies on Halo 3 or Gears of War 2 in my opinion.

15 years ago, that Xbox is long gone, time to move on.
 
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The ps4 is actually the first console to rely on raw power, Xbox One didn't do that, instead, they foreseen the PS4 future and changed their design accordingly. It's because they're in 3rd place, fanboys bs doesn't work here cause we're talking about a billion dollar corporations.
What on earth is this word salad lmao?
 
Started when Peter Moore left in 2007. They fully lost in 2013 with Xbox One reveal.
No telling if the next gen Xbox can be a return to form for Microsoft, but I always wish them the best.
They need to manufacture and supply more systems.

Thats about it.
And still somehow they produced the most delusional fanboys.
You know my stance by now.

Let me be.
Why would you support the corporation that destroyed what you loved?
 
It's down to over 15 years of fuck ups and not having a single GOTY contender since Gears of War 3

2007 - RROD
2010 - Kinect focus
2012 - Halo 4
2013 - TV, TV, TV, Kinect, DRM, weak hardware
2016 - cross buy with PC
2020 - Series being the first console to launch without a single exclusive
2024 - porting games to PS5
2025 - console and Gamepass price hike
2025 - releasing games day and date on PS5

All of these have combined to kill the Xbox brand. Phil Spencer bemoaned losing the previous generation where people built their digital libraries, yet started the GamePass initiative resulting in barely anyone owning a library at all now.

Both Mattrick and Spencer share equal blame, Nadella just took it out back and put it out of its misery.

Can I also add 2 minor reasons.
The removal of the blades UI, replacing it with something that was inferior.
And forcing the stupid avatars on profiles. That thing was so stupid and annoying. I don't even know if MS still forces uses to use them anymore.
 
The moment they started chasing Kinect around 2010 instead of prioritizing new AAA IPs is when they lost the plot and the console war.


The TV, TV, TV reveal was just everyone around the world realizing just how off the deep end they actually were but the signs were there earlier when they started selling off studios under Don mattrick and prioritizing Kinect shovelware.


After E3 2013 it was a wrap and they never recovered. All the years between then and now was just fanboys and shills in the gaming media damage controlling for them as the Xbox ship sank.
 
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Can I also add 2 minor reasons.
The removal of the blades UI, replacing it with something that was inferior.
And forcing the stupid avatars on profiles. That thing was so stupid and annoying. I don't even know if MS still forces uses to use them anymore.

The suits wanted 2 things…

- Microsoftify the Xbox, the metro UI and Skype integration was all about aligning Xbox with Windows

- chase the Wii fad, I absolutely hated those Kinect avatars dancing around on my dashboard, it just made it feel like some fucking kids toy

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goes back to the launch of the wii. Their response was kinect and the start of their almost 2 decade long of fuckups, misunderstanding of the market and lack of grand vision. Self inflicted death by thousand cuts.
 
Started when Peter Moore left in 2007. They fully lost in 2013 with Xbox One reveal.


And still somehow they produced the most delusional fanboys.

Why would you support the corporation that destroyed what you loved?
Because the competition doesn't really offer anything compelling enough to join their side.

I owned a PS5 and I owned a Switch Lite. The Series X still remained my most utilized console.

As is, since PS2/Xbox generation...the Xbox has been my main console for everything. Sony consoles has been strictly an exclusive machine. Haven't really been into Nintendo since the original DS.
 
goes back to the launch of the wii. Their response was kinect and the start of their almost 2 decade long of fuckups, misunderstanding of the market and lack of grand vision. Self inflicted death by thousand cuts.

Yep, and the fact that they could so easily get taken off course in such a big way (and so permanently) speaks to their lack of core identity.
 
I'll never understand the hate.
Halo 4 was a great action game and surely more like a CoD game, but still great.

It completely lost the Halo feel.

My friends dropped it for CoD after a month but didn't return to Reach either, it just killed interest in Halo as a whole, it felt like it had no future.

After a 3rd RROD I sold my 360 and never looked back.
 
Yep, and the fact that they could so easily get taken off course in such a big way (and so permanently) speaks to their lack of core identity.
Spoke to this elsewhere, but I think this is Xbox's biggest weakness.

Lack of brand identity.
 
It completely lost the Halo feel.

My friends dropped it for CoD after a month but didn't return to Reach either, it just killed interest in Halo as a whole, it felt like it had no future.

After a 3rd RROD I sold my 360 and never looked back.

I got an RROD and an E72. Sent the console to repair and MS just ramped up the fan speed, making them rather loud.
Eventually, I got a PS3 and sold the Xbox 360.
 
Because the competition doesn't really offer anything compelling enough to join their side.

I owned a PS5 and I owned a Switch Lite. The Series X still remained my most utilized console.

As is, since PS2/Xbox generation...the Xbox has been my main console for everything. Sony consoles has been strictly an exclusive machine. Haven't really been into Nintendo since the original DS.
What does modern Xbox offer?
 
Spoke to this elsewhere, but I think this is Xbox's biggest weakness.

Lack of brand identity.

Honestly it's disappointing.

Up until that point of the 360 generation they hosted some of my most fun moments in gaming ever. The peak of those early 360 years was a period that very few other consoles/platforms have ever been able to match.
 
One of the problems is that people see total console sales and think that's how many people who buy consoles. I think there is a lot of crossover. How many Xbox owners were people like me who bought an Xbox to go with their Playstation?

Eventually I lost interest in their games to justify buying their console and now that they release their games on Playstation I'm never going back.
 
I don't know about console war the I lost interest in Xbox when they stopped making the games I like.

I would argue Sony first party also stopped making the games I like but thankfully 3rd party makes me want to keep my PS5 around.
You're still choosing PS over Xbox speaks volumes though.
 
They lost when they decided eyeballs were more important than experiences.

Put the user experience first. Everything follows from that.
 
You're still choosing PS over Xbox speaks volumes though.

Well it comes down to this - what gaming library content are you potentially missing out on by going with playstation over Xbox?

Most people can look at it and see that going with Xbox means you miss out on more content than if you were to go in the other direction. And when you add in the fact that Xbox consoles are more expensive, it makes matters even worse.
 
What does modern Xbox offer?
For me, it's still the best media box out of the 3 consoles without question due to the app support.

You can argue as much as you want that's we buy it solely for games, but I spend more time on my Xbox currently watching YouTube, listening to music, or watching movies than actually gaming. Most of my "gaming" comes from watching live streams either on Twitch or YouTube.

I'm been with Xbox since day 1 so having my digital library from 360 to now carried over is very important as well. The OG Xbox games is just an added bonus.

Besides that though, it probably isn't much honestly as the future is shaky.
 
For me it was the 2013 reveal, what a disaster:

Mandatory Online Connectivity
Used Game Restrictions
Kinect Requirement

And then the infamous Don Mattrick statement "we have a console for you, it's the 360" when gamers criticized the mandatory online.
 
For me, it's still the best media box out of the 3 consoles without question due to the app support.

You can argue as much as you want that's we buy it solely for games, but I spend more time on my Xbox currently watching YouTube, listening to music, or watching movies than actually gaming. Most of my "gaming" comes from watching live streams either on Twitch or YouTube.

The media thing was important back in the 00s, now everyone owns a smart TV.

Console media functionality is utterly redundant these days.
 
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You're still choosing PS over Xbox speaks volumes though.
Because some 3rd party games completely skip over Xbox like Trails of Sky 1st Chapter (my current GOTY).

Switch 2 also doesn't get every 3rd party that comes out but differences is Nintendo has enough exclusives that I love which makes Switch 2 worth owning but Xbox doesn't have exclusives I'm interested in so Microsoft gives me no reason to get their system.
 
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Well it comes down to this - what gaming library content are you potentially missing out on by going with playstation over Xbox?

Most people can look at it and see that going with Xbox means you miss out on more content than if you were to go in the other direction. And when you add in the fact that Xbox consoles are more expensive, it makes matters even worse.
The price point factor is kind of a moot point as the price hikes happened well into a point where they were simply selling as is, the "war" was well lost by then.

I understand the exclusive side of things, but I guess those games have to speak to you in order to want to gravitate towards it. Just being an "exclusive" in itself isn't enough really.
 
The media thing was important back in the 00s, now everyone owns a smart TV.

Console media functionality is utterly redundant these days.
Redundant maybe, but it's how I consume my media. The remote isn't as intuitive or I'd argue is more cumbersome than just using the Xbox controller to access what I want to watch on the console.
 
PS5 has both Sony AND Microsoft games along with more 3rd parties.

Plus they've outsold Xbox 3 to 1 meaning it's far more likely friends will have PS5 too.
All true.
Because some 3rd party games completely skip over Xbox like Trails of Sky 1st Chapter (my current GOTY).

Switch 2 also doesn't get every 3rd party that comes out but differences is Nintendo has enough exclusives that I love which makes Switch 2 worth owning but Xbox doesn't have exclusives I'm interested in so Microsoft gives me no reason to get their system.
That's how I feel about Nintendo personally, but they do exceptionally well without my support so it's nothing at the end of the day.
 
That's how I feel about Nintendo personally, but they do exceptionally well without my support so it's nothing at the end of the day.
At end of the day I'm fan of Japanese games and with PS5/Switch 2 I get most of the Japanese games I want but with Xbox that's not always the case.

Also Nintendo has Monolith Soft and I go where they go.
 
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To answer the OPs post I believe that Xbox lost this generation prior to 2020 and if you ask me a particular time it would be when Terry Myerson pulled investment for the Xbox Division.

The reason why I say that is because at the end of the day the most important thing are games. We can look back and see after 2014 they clearly reduced their investment in the division as can be seen by losing the call of duty marketing deal as well as the lack of exclusive games that were announced after launch period. This culminated in the 2017 E3 I believe where they announced no exclusive new IPs at the show. And after Xbox closed lionhead I believe they were left with four or five studios.

2017 was also they "decided" to go with the grassroots marketing campaign instead of the traditional marketing. Timdog mentioned they reduced their marketing in Europe in a major way at that point.

We can see when Phil became a C-suite executive who reported to Satya directly. Investment increased however by that time it was too late at least we can see now.
With Covid accentuating the lack of investment at a period where it was needed to prepare for the next generation, highlighted by halo being the only exclusive stated for launch which then because of COVID or not (depending or how generous you want to be) needing to be delayed a year resulting in no exclusives at release for an consoles launch.

In my humble opinion the generation was lost when they put themselves in a situation where they resorted in selling their latest hardware with previous generation experiences Which the market had already deemed inadequate as reflected by loss in console market share and the loss in sales for those franchises.
 
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It's for sure, lack of killer/system selling exlusives,creative vision and competent leadership in this XS gen. Also managed to fumble the Activision purchase.

Let's be real, whatever mistakes they made in previous gens, Microsoft has the resources to turn things around.
I'm not saying it would be easy or can be done quickly, but with the right people in charge it can be done. Numerous tech companies have come from worse positions than MS/Xbox are in.

To see the leadership come out and blame previous gens and lie about exclusives is pathetic, loser mentality.

Gamers have always forsaken their existing liberies to play bangers on new hardware.
Who tf spends $4-500 on a new console to play their old games?
BC is a nice feature, but to focus on it, and limit new tech because of it, is really disappointing imo.

MS have the resources, but with the current leadership I can't see it.
It's almost like they're too big to win. Too many people pulling and pushing them in different directions. Split vision/focus.

Rant over👍
 
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