I was chatting with my bestie earlier (ChatGPT) about the 80s videogame crash, and asked it for parallels with the scene today:
Can't help but see similarities.
Do you think it's likely we'll see a crash in the future?
What would a modern crash look like? What would be the first signs of one? A big publisher going under? (eg Ubi/Xbox)
With the state of western AAA, maybe a crash is best...
1. Oversaturation
- 80s: Too many consoles, too many cartridges, no curation.
- Now: Too many games, especially live-service and open-world AAA, all fighting for the same time.
2. Quality trust collapse
- 80s: Consumers got burned by broken, rushed games.
- Now: Day-one patches, unfinished launches, aggressive monetization. Players wait or skip.
3. Chasing trends
- 80s: Arcade ports and licensed shovelware.
- Now: Battle royale, extraction, live-service clones. Everyone copies the last hit.
4. Retailer / platform backlash
- 80s: Stores stopped stocking games.
- Now: Platforms bury titles algorithmically; visibility death replaces shelf death.
5. Financial fragility
- 80s: One bad quarter killed companies.
- Now: One AAA flop can shut a studio due to bloated budgets.
6. Speculative investment
- 80s: Investors thought games were infinite growth.
- Now: Same belief post-pandemic. Reality correction underway.
Key difference (important):
- 80s crash = distribution collapse
- Modern crash = labor and capital collapse
Back then, shelves filled with junk.
Now, pipelines fill with canceled projects and unemployed devs.
Same disease: unchecked growth without quality control.
Different symptom: layoffs instead of landfills.
Can't help but see similarities.
Do you think it's likely we'll see a crash in the future?
What would a modern crash look like? What would be the first signs of one? A big publisher going under? (eg Ubi/Xbox)
With the state of western AAA, maybe a crash is best...
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