Are we headed for a videogame crash?

Sephimoth

Member
I was chatting with my bestie earlier (ChatGPT) about the 80s videogame crash, and asked it for parallels with the scene today:

1. Oversaturation
- 80s: Too many consoles, too many cartridges, no curation.
- Now: Too many games, especially live-service and open-world AAA, all fighting for the same time.

2. Quality trust collapse
- 80s: Consumers got burned by broken, rushed games.
- Now: Day-one patches, unfinished launches, aggressive monetization. Players wait or skip.

3. Chasing trends
- 80s: Arcade ports and licensed shovelware.
- Now: Battle royale, extraction, live-service clones. Everyone copies the last hit.

4. Retailer / platform backlash
- 80s: Stores stopped stocking games.
- Now: Platforms bury titles algorithmically; visibility death replaces shelf death.

5. Financial fragility
- 80s: One bad quarter killed companies.
- Now: One AAA flop can shut a studio due to bloated budgets.

6. Speculative investment
- 80s: Investors thought games were infinite growth.
- Now: Same belief post-pandemic. Reality correction underway.

Key difference (important):
- 80s crash = distribution collapse
- Modern crash = labor and capital collapse

Back then, shelves filled with junk.
Now, pipelines fill with canceled projects and unemployed devs.

Same disease: unchecked growth without quality control.
Different symptom: layoffs instead of landfills.

Can't help but see similarities. :pie_thinking:

Do you think it's likely we'll see a crash in the future?
What would a modern crash look like? What would be the first signs of one? A big publisher going under? (eg Ubi/Xbox)

With the state of western AAA, maybe a crash is best...
 
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That you put Xbox in your speculation ASIDE (because, you know, MICROSOFT), we're going to see game companies folding. The house of cards is coming down.
 
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I was chatting with my bestie earlier (ChatGPT) about the 80s videogame crash, and asked it for parallels with the scene today:



Can't help but see similarities. :pie_thinking:

Do you think it's likely we'll see a crash in the future?
What would a modern crash look like? What would be the first signs of one? A big publisher going under? (eg Ubi/Xbox)

Maybe a crash is best...
Huh, weird, because all the 'similarities' appear to be different to me.
 
No, market and situation are completely different. I do think we are going to see a slowdown due to economic circumstances, RAM/SSD prices rising and generally increasing disinterest amongst Gen Z and Gen Alpha in traditional Console and PC gaming.
 
Roll your eyes all you want - it's crashing right now. You could say it's a slow-motion crash.
Games suck now. The talent is gone. Interactive entertainment is too appealing a prospect for it to stay dead forever, so if society doesn't completely evaporate first, it'll come back. But not for a while.

Unlike some high on copium, I don't consider any of these live-service "games" as actual games - because they're not. Empty multiplayer slop, gamble-for-titties gacha "games," and "extraction shooters" are all the same blend of trash that only a small minority of gamers can actually feel any excitement for.

Those of us who grew up having complete experiences of a dizzying number of varieties, like those that could be found all the way up to the Xbox 360 era, have had nothing of interest to play for literally years now. The PS4 was arguably the last true gaming console, in terms of content, and games are being made for it like what, 10 years later?

The latest puerile indie-game release, be it some stupid game about girl slap fights, or some shallow memebait joke stretched into a two-button minigame sold as a full game, is nothing the rest of us can get excited about. I see people here and elsewhere hyping these...experiences... but I cannot see how anyone could look at this sea of almost-literal shit and feel anything but existential dread for their hobby and how far it's fallen.
 
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Some parts of industry can crash.

Hardware sales for instance.

But games industry is far too big and entrenched at this point.

Will kids stop playing on their ipads suddenly?
 
I predicted mass layoffs at American game studios like EA and Activision in the 2026 prediction thread. Also Hi-Rez Studio will be sold off to private equity or shut down. It's aleady on its 2nd round of layoffs.
 
I think we are headed for AI everything tech crash.

Soon people will realise that current AI spendings is not going to be recouped in decades, and then the crash will take place
 
Plenty of great games every month if you are not a snob.
It's not being a snob just because a person has standards.

There hasn't been a truly "great" game for years, let alone months.

Indie devs are complete idiots, and however dire things are I actually don't think I have to worry about disagreements when it comes to the state of the AAA industry. It's hard to find any semblance of love for games that are microtransaction markets masquerading as open-world slopfest #3,140.

In the AAA space, everything is a stripped-down multiplayer shooter live-service platform. They don't even bother with characters, stories, or atmosphere anymore. The few large-scale titles that try to be different are ignored, buried under the slop, because no one bothers reporting on them anymore.
 
We are always heading towards a crash, even if unknowingly in every area and not just gaming. When will happen is the question nobody can answer.
 
Are we headed for a videogame crash?
No, the industry keeps growing every year in the amount of revenue generated and amount of players, devs teams and people working in the industry.

Particularly PlayStation, Nintendo, PC and mobile are breaking different kinds of all time records. Only Xbox home console hardware is dying, as happened before with Sega or other contenders.

Nothing leads to think a crash is coming. Yes, there were layoffs, but mostly because some companies were bloated or weren't performing good enough because their projects weren't good enough.

But most of this people got hired elsewhere or opened their own studio, and people who left the industry gets more than compensated with new devs who come from universities. The amount of studios, people in the industry and games under development keeps increasing.

developers hiding (naughty dog) etc.
AAA games require more people and time every new generation. This is the reason of why studios like ND that only had a single dev team are taking more time to release new AAA games.

the 80s videogame crash
There wasn't any 1983-1985 crash. A handful big US companies tanked because other ones did a better job, that's all. Meanwhile many other ones started to thrive particularly in Japan and Europe.

That period is when platforms like ZX Spectrum, Commodore 64, MSX, NES, Sega's SG-1000 (let's say the 'Master System I') or Commodore Amiga got released and iconic companies like Capcom started to make their first games.

A big publisher going under? (eg Ubi/Xbox)
MS is the top grossing 3rd party publisher in the world, and the top 3 top grossing company only after Sony and Tencent.

Xbox hardware is what is performing badly, but they have been slowly moving away from it, and soon will get rid of it. As full multiplatform publisher they'll be way more successful than they are.

Regarding Ubisoft, some stock market trolls have been artificially taking down their stock value, but the company itself is performing well and is in a healthy state financially and they have been fixing the two main issues they had (big debt, of exactly the same amount of the recent Tencent investment, so won't be an issue) and being bloated regarding amount of manpower compared to their revenue (they had a plan that is working during the last couple years that they'll continue for around a year more or so related to reduce manpower without mass layoffs).

Most of the other top companies are performing really well, in many cases better than ever. And if one of them gets in some kind of problem there's multiple actors interested to acquire stuff, so they'd be acquired by somebody and their issues would be addressed.
 
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No, you can see a regression perhaps to weed out the poorly managed studios/projects, but it's not going to crash like in the 80s. The industry today is also far bigger and more mainstream than the fledgling that it was in the 80s. Sony, Nintendo, and Steam are making more money than they ever have.
 
How do you define a "crash"?

Last few years we've seen tons of AAA flops, layoffs, and studio closures. Xbox is in a death spiral. We just had the worst November video game hardware sales in 30 years. And I don't see any indication that this is going to rebound any time soon.

Does that count as a crash?
 
It's not being a snob just because a person has standards.

There hasn't been a truly "great" game for years, let alone months.

Indie devs are complete idiots, and however dire things are I actually don't think I have to worry about disagreements when it comes to the state of the AAA industry. It's hard to find any semblance of love for games that are microtransaction markets masquerading as open-world slopfest #3,140.

In the AAA space, everything is a stripped-down multiplayer shooter live-service platform. They don't even bother with characters, stories, or atmosphere anymore. The few large-scale titles that try to be different are ignored, buried under the slop, because no one bothers reporting on them anymore.

The industry isn't crashing because of your retarded ass "standards"
 
Companies hit hard times in gaming fairly often. It is a very hit driven business. What happened to Atari in 1983 isn't that special. I don't know what is going on with Microsoft, they could crash real hard in the future, but that would only partly be due to their failing gaming investments.
 
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I was chatting with my bestie earlier (ChatGPT)
You do realize that ChatGPT (especially, but this applies to a lesser extent to other LLM chatbots as well) is designed to be sycophantic? I.e., when you ask a stupid question, it will try to give an answer that pleases you. That doesn't make it true or factual.
 
The industry isn't crashing because of your retarded ass "standards"
Funny, because it's losing money like blood from a main artery, studios are closing left and right, and it's been happening for years...

But I'm sure it's not because people don't like "Bartender Game #2,100," "Poop Throwing Simulator," and the latest PvPvE team-based procgen Lovecraftian SWAT tactics extraction shooter.

But sure, we'll pretend that a decade-long crash is the fault of two-year-old tariffs, bro. If that's what you need.
 
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Funny, because it's losing money like blood from a main artery, studios are closing left and right, and it's been happening for years...

But I'm sure it's not because people don't like "Bartender Game #2,100," "Poop Throwing Simulator," and the latest PvPvE team-based procgen Lovecraftian SWAT tactics extraction shooter.

Sounds like a you issue if you can't discern great games that have come out this year from the poop simulator
 
Minus the retard posts, some good points.

Revenue doesn't necessarily mean health though right? (because of rising dev costs). Profitability charts would be more accurate.

And a crash doesn't mean games disappear or people stop playing them, more about the backend/business side breaking down.
 
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Sounds like a you issue if you can't discern great games that have come out this year from the poop simulator
Okay, pal, let me guess? Expedition 33? KCD2?
Where Are You Wow GIF by MESA My Emotional Support Animal

Those games aren't "great," by any stretch. What else?

You know why those games are loved so much? It is by simple virtue of actually resembling a proper videogame. They're not even particularly good, and yet they have a cult-like following just because they actually follow a comfortable and familiar structure of being complete experiences having a beginning, middle, and definite end unlike virtually everything else released in the past five years.

Same thing with Baldur's Gate 3. The game is truly nothing special, but Larian is all but worshipped for creating it, because there was - at the time - nothing else like it: a full-fledged AAA RPG that didn't look and feel like a throwback to the late nineties... because studios straight-up weren't making those kinds of games anymore, instead trying (at that time) to squeeze out arena shooters and open-world slop and nothing else.
 
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I was chatting with my bestie earlier (ChatGPT) about the 80s videogame crash, and asked it for parallels with the scene today:



Can't help but see similarities. :pie_thinking:

Do you think it's likely we'll see a crash in the future?
What would a modern crash look like? What would be the first signs of one? A big publisher going under? (eg Ubi/Xbox)

Maybe a crash is best...

Minus the retard posts, some good points.

Revenue doesn't necessarily mean health though right? (because of rising dev costs). Profitability charts would be more accurate.

And a crash doesn't mean games disappear or people stop playing them, more about the backend/business side breaking down.
/ thread

:messenger_winking_tongue:
 
Games suck now. The talent is gone.
LMAO, 2025's indies/AA devs just swept TGA. Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 crushed GOTY

2025 was full of bangers alone

Those of us who grew up having complete experiences of a dizzying number of varieties, like those that could be found all the way up to the Xbox 360 era, have had nothing of interest to play for literally years now.
What are you even on about? Speak for yourself, dude. Not everyone shares your doom-and-gloom take.

The latest puerile indie-game release, be it some stupid game about girl slap fights, or some shallow memebait joke stretched into a two-button minigame sold as a full game, is nothing the rest of us can get excited about. I see people here and elsewhere hyping these...experiences... but I cannot see how anyone could look at this sea of almost-literal shit and feel anything but existential dread for their hobby and how far it's fallen.
If you're feeling "existential dread," it's not the hobby that's fallen... it's your taste, grandpa.

And if you genuinely haven't found a single game worth playing in years, maybe gaming just isn't your thing anymore

Try knitting or something
 
The gaming industry would only be crashing if games like Fortnite, Minecraft, Genshin Impact, and every other free to play game on the goddamn planet had massive player drops but that aint happening so this entire question is stupid.
 
LMAO, 2025's indies/AA devs just swept TGA. Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 crushed GOTY

2025 was full of bangers alone


What are you even on about? Speak for yourself, dude. Not everyone shares your doom-and-gloom take.


If you're feeling "existential dread," it's not the hobby that's fallen... it's your taste, grandpa.

And if you genuinely haven't found a single game worth playing in years, maybe gaming just isn't your thing anymore

Try knitting or something
I mean, I don't know why you think you have a victory telling me that gaming isn't my thing anymore. I mean, it's not the "thing" of anyone who appreciated games up to the 360 era, which was sort of the whole crux of my argument. Problem is, it's also not the "thing" of the talented creators who built the industry into a multi-million dollar juggernaut. That creative talent has moved on or has been forced out of the industry, resulting in the slopfest I am speaking of.

The sea of glow-up remakes and remasters goes to show the industry is floundering to replicate that creative output, and perhaps even to justify its own existence.

The gaming industry would only be crashing if games like Fortnite, Minecraft, Genshin Impact, and every other free to play game on the goddamn planet had massive player drops but that aint happening so this entire question is stupid.

If every single panel on your car rusted and fell off, and all you have is some suspension and tires, do you still have a car?
 
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You know why those games are loved so much? It is by simple virtue of actually resembling a proper videogame. They're not even particularly good, and yet they have a cult-like following just because they actually follow a comfortable and familiar structure of being complete experiences having a beginning, middle, and definite end unlike virtually everything else released in the past five years.

Same thing with Baldur's Gate 3. The game is truly nothing special, but Larian is all but worshipped for creating it, because there was - at the time - nothing else like it: a full-fledged AAA RPG that didn't look and feel like a throwback to the late nineties... because studios straight-up weren't making those kinds of games anymore, instead trying (at that time) to squeeze out arena shooters and open-world slop and nothing else.

Imagine denying you're not just a snob after that holy shit hahaha

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No, the industry keeps growing every year in the amount of revenue generated and amount of players, devs teams and people working in the industry.

Particularly PlayStation, Nintendo, PC and mobile are breaking different kinds of all time records. Only Xbox home console hardware is dying, as happened before with Sega or other contenders.

Nothing leads to think a crash is coming. Yes, there were layoffs, but mostly because some companies were bloated or weren't performing good enough because their projects weren't good enough.

But most of this people got hired elsewhere or opened their own studio, and people who left the industry gets more than compensated with new devs who come from universities. The amount of studios, people in the industry and games under development keeps increasing.


AAA games require more people and time every new generation. This is the reason of why studios like ND that only had a single dev team are taking more time to release new AAA games.
The idea that videogames are "slowly dying" or that "there's no talent left" is not supported by any serious industry data.
From a macroeconomic standpoint, the videogame industry continues to expand. Global revenues have surpassed $180–190 billion annually, and forecasts still point to long-term growth, not contraction. The player base now exceeds 3.2 billion people worldwide, a figure that has increased steadily over the past decade. An industry that is losing relevance does not gain hundreds of millions of new users.
Employment numbers tell the same story. The total number of developers, studios, and professionals working in games has grown significantly, especially in Asia, Europe, and emerging markets. At the same time, development budgets, production scope, and technical complexity have reached levels that were unthinkable even 10–15 years ago.

Platform data is equally clear:

PlayStation continues to break records in software revenue and engagement, with first-party titles regularly selling very well.
Nintendo has one of the most successful hardware/software ecosystems in history, with evergreen IPs generating sustained sales across generations.
PC gaming is at an all-time high in terms of active users, live-service revenue, and high-end hardware adoption.
Mobile gaming alone represents roughly 50% of global gaming revenue, driven by massive user bases and long-term monetization models.

The only segment showing structural weakness is dedicated Xbox home console hardware, which is a platform-specific issue, not an industry-wide one. Similar shifts have happened before; Sega is the obvious historical example, without implying the decline of videogames as a medium.
What has changed is audience perception. Many long-time players are experiencing fatigue, nostalgia bias, or diminishing novelty, and they confuse that personal feeling with an objective decline in quality or talent. But reduced emotional impact for an individual does not equal creative collapse.

Talent has not disappeared; it has spread across more genres, tools, and production scales. Finally, the forward-looking picture matters. The 2025–2026 release pipeline includes major new IPs, long-awaited sequels, and substantial technological upgrades that will likely reset many narratives currently driven by cynicism rather than evidence.
In short, videogames are not dying.
What's growing instead is disenchantment in part of the audience, amplified by online discourse. The numbers, however, tell a very different story.
 
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