Support NeoGAF

[EviLore]

Protests ongoing despite the massacre. Brave kids.

 

[LordPezix]

The notion that hypersonic missiles can easily nullify the US military's major assets is mostly Russian and Chinese propaganda/delusion.

Not here to debate, but as an active duty military member the leaders of our forces have a different opinion about this.

Alot gets thrown around in briefings but the one subject that comes up alot is hypersonic missiles.

Just reporting what I have seen and heard.

USN if anyone was curious.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

The notion that hypersonic missiles can easily nullify the US military's major assets is mostly Russian and Chinese propaganda/delusion. We should have more aircraft carriers though and more tech development. The legacy defense manufacturers are bloated and slow. We need more Andurils to secure the future.

Drones have already changed ground war drastically in Russia-Ukraine and will need to be accounted for in major conflicts going forward. But the US is not participating in low tech meat grinder wars between guys with rusty AKs.

Iran will be a spectacle.

There is always that "super-missile" that will destroy USA. It has been this way since the Cold War era.

 

[Forsete]

There is always that "super-missile" that will destroy USA. It has been this way since the Cold War era.

The latest is Putins oreshnik. He promises NATO has nothing like it and can't counter it.

They have shot two against Ukraine. Both seems to have missed their targets.

 

[EviLore]

Not here to debate, but as an active duty military member the leaders of our forces have a different opinion about this.

Alot gets thrown around in briefings but the one subject that comes up alot is hypersonic missiles.

Just reporting what I have seen and heard.

USN if anyone was curious.

For sure, but the responsibility within the USN is to take external threats as seriously as possible so that you're fully prepared. The latest gen hypersonic missiles are difficult to intercept and can do a lot of damage, hypothetically. But they're not good at hitting targets accurately, especially moving targets, and are also reliant on accurate intelligence for targeting.

They're hyped up by the other team to ridiculous levels, as usual, but not proven. Things can play out a bit differently in the real world, as we saw with the S-400s not shooting down a single US aircraft in the Venezuela raid.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

The latest is Putins oreshnik. He promises NATO has nothing like it and can't counter it.

They have shot two against Ukraine. Both seems to have missed their targets.

There is even a term for that

Wunderwaffe - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[MisterFalcon]

The threats are not completely idle. Israel had the most formidable missile defenses in human history and in the final days of the conflict the missile interception rate had dropped to 75% from more than 90% at the start. If this is Iran using better missiles or Israel rationing defenses is unclear but those kind of numbers are troublesome.
Ukraine also has an extensive air defence network, maybe the second best in the world, and it also cannot stop everything.

Ships at sea are pretty safe until proven otherwise. They are too far, too fast and too well defended for sea drones and hypersonic anti ship missiles are still mostly theoretical. In the reporting on Houthi attacks on shipping the terms 'ballistic' and 'hypersonic' kept being used on regular old anti ship missiles and drones which can hit slow tankers just fine but would not do much against a CVN group.

Biggest risk I see is an Operation Spiderweb like attack on planes parked at a base. Lots of places all around Europe and the Middle East are now full of very expensive planes, places close to big cities and busy roads.

 

[winjer]

The threats are not completely idle. Israel had the most formidable missile defenses in human history and in the final days of the conflict the missile interception rate had dropped to 75% from more than 90% at the start. If this is Iran using better missiles or Israel rationing defenses is unclear but those kind of numbers are troublesome.
Ukraine also has an extensive air defence network, maybe the second best in the world, and it also cannot stop everything.

Ships at sea are pretty safe until proven otherwise. They are too far, too fast and too well defended for sea drones and hypersonic anti ship missiles are still mostly theoretical. In the reporting on Houthi attacks on shipping the terms 'ballistic' and 'hypersonic' kept being used on regular old anti ship missiles and drones which can hit slow tankers just fine but would not do much against a CVN group.

Biggest risk I see is an Operation Spiderweb like attack on planes parked at a base. Lots of places all around Europe and the Middle East are now full of very expensive planes, places close to big cities and busy roads.

But his is not because Iran got better tech. It's because Israel's system defense was saturated. There is only so many interception missiles that a country can build in a given time and get operational.
This is why Israel, UK, USA, EU are all working to get laser systems operational. Unlike missile defense systems, these will have almost limitless interception rates, while being much cheaper to use.
But most important, it will enable the shift in cost, because sending a thousand dumb missiles, targeting large cities, is much cheaper than sending thousands of highly accurate missiles to take them down.

 

[Tams]

Not here to debate, but as an active duty military member the leaders of our forces have a different opinion about this.

Alot gets thrown around in briefings but the one subject that comes up alot is hypersonic missiles.

Just reporting what I have seen and heard.

USN if anyone was curious.

It's their job to be aware of the threat, even if it's not likely.

It also helps to secure funding.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

It also helps to secure funding.

This is also the big angle in it.

In a lot of autocracies, for example, a lot of generals and others tend to talk or show videos of some "amazing weapons" at their disposal, that every foreign adversary is afraid of because they want to please their "great leader". Something like "Sure, we have only 5-10 and by 2030 we will have 5m of those!". Even the parades are basically for the same thing - to demonstrate the shiny thing.

It is something similar - but kinda reverse - in countries like USA. "We need infinite money because we are underdogs, the enemy is constantly one step ahead of us, they can decimate us in 10 seconds, another 500b will help".

 

[jason10mm]

This is also the big angle in it.

In a lot of autocracies, for example, a lot of generals and others tend to talk or show videos of some "amazing weapons" at their disposal, that every foreign adversary is afraid of because they want to please their "great leader". Something like "Sure, we have only 5-10 and by 2030 we will have 5m of those!". Even the parades are basically for the same thing - to demonstrate the shiny thing.

It is something similar - but kinda reverse - in countries like USA. "We need infinite money because we are underdogs, the enemy is constantly one step ahead of us, they can decimate us in 10 seconds, another 500b will help".

This is how warfare progresses, and its what they teach in the development courses to middle rank officers (I had several books on military revolutions and wrote papers about them). The phrase "we always prepare for the last war" is apt because finding strategies and weapons to fight was we experienced before is a natural tactic. But a new tech can just completely upset the apple cart and render an entire existing military structure obsolete. It's been DECADES since near peers have really gone at it at sea, Falkland's really, as limited as that was, though there was some naval stuff in Ukraine, to see just how well modern defense systems protect against modern attack systems at scale.

Personally I think American will to intervene in Iran would collapse with just a single carrier hit, regardless of damage. Our whole psyche is based on those things and the aura of invincibility they have which has never really been challenged. They are 15+ BILLION dollar 'investments' with 5 thousand+ souls on board, so its a really high risk gamble to actually use them, though I do agree the risk against Iran is fairly low. But its a tight area in there, not the wide open ocean where a CBG can maneuver relatively undetected. Lots of cargo traffic there though, unless its all been diverted, which would undoubtedly make it more chaotic.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

This is how warfare progresses, and its what they teach in the development courses to middle rank officers (I had several books on military revolutions and wrote papers about them). The phrase "we always prepare for the last war" is apt because finding strategies and weapons to fight was we experienced before is a natural tactic. But a new tech can just completely upset the apple cart and render an entire existing military structure obsolete. It's been DECADES since near peers have really gone at it at sea, Falkland's really, as limited as that was, though there was some naval stuff in Ukraine, to see just how well modern defense systems protect against modern attack systems at scale.

Warfare truly progresses only in a real war because adversaries truly believe that the other side has the advantage. Without rely war, the developments are pretty small. Like aircraft carriers haven't change much and attempts to go further - like Zumwalts and such - were failures. Same with F35 that took years to produce. Arguably even old drones were basically missiles. And older tech - like Patriots, etc. are just too expensive now.

But now we have much more rapid development in combat, with more urgency to develop anti-drone tech, lasers, swarms etc. as things like that are becoming increasingly more available for weak adversaries and do not cost as much.

 

[calico]

Personally I think American will to intervene in Iran would collapse with just a single carrier hit, regardless of damage.

I think a carrier being significantly hit would be so symbolic that it could only have the opposite effect, even with how riven America is.

 

[ADiTAR]

But his is not because Iran got better tech. It's because Israel's system defense was saturated. There is only so many interception missiles that a country can build in a given time and get operational.
This is why Israel, UK, USA, EU are all working to get laser systems operational. Unlike missile defense systems, these will have almost limitless interception rates, while being much cheaper to use.
But most important, it will enable the shift in cost, because sending a thousand dumb missiles, targeting large cities, is much cheaper than sending thousands of highly accurate missiles to take them down.

Israel has an operational laser system, it was tried out during the Iran war but not at full capacity. We'll see if it hold in this one.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

Israel has an operational laser system, it was tried out during the Iran war but not at full capacity. We'll see if it hold in this one.

Yeah, lasers are the future - at least the near future. Missiles are just too expensive. But I would not be surprised if there was a lot of very interested data collected post 12 day war.

 

[AJUMP23]

Mexico is going crazy too.

 

[P:axMagellanic]

But his is not because Iran got better tech. It's because Israel's system defense was saturated. There is only so many interception missiles that a country can build in a given time and get operational.
This is why Israel, UK, USA, EU are all working to get laser systems operational. Unlike missile defense systems, these will have almost limitless interception rates, while being much cheaper to use.
But most important, it will enable the shift in cost, because sending a thousand dumb missiles, targeting large cities, is much cheaper than sending thousands of highly accurate missiles to take them down.

Theoretically any one of those missiles could have carried a WMD. That's why the failure of missile defence and the air screen from the USAF/RAF/IAF was so worrying. Iran is a clown country at the end of the day.

 

[LyricalShrike]

Not here to debate, but as an active duty military member the leaders of our forces have a different opinion about this.

Alot gets thrown around in briefings but the one subject that comes up alot is hypersonic missiles.

Just reporting what I have seen and heard.

USN if anyone was curious.

The threat is academic. Hypersonic missiles are complex and difficult to make. Their cost makes conventional munitions wasteful since it would be easier to make an overwhelming barrage of non-hypersonic if one's goal were to do conventional damage. The primary role a hypersonic missile would fill is avoiding interception while nuking a base or a carrier group. Threats to conventional assets fall to the wayside once combat goes nuclear.

 

[Dr.D00p]

This is why Israel, UK, USA, EU are all working to get laser systems operational.

Lasers are no good against ballistic missiles. They're too slow to keep a lock on hypersonic missile speeds.

Taking down missiles moving at such speeds can only be done with other missiles going as fast. Lasers are limited to objects travelling below Mach 1.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

It takes too much time with Iran. At this point something has to be done - there is no point to believe that Iran even wants a deal. They want to delay and delay as long as possible to build and fortify itself as long as possible. No deal will be upheld, and just like with everything they will continue lying and dragging their time. Even Trump should be aware how much he is losing the face.

It is one of the reasons why JD is losing political points recently - aside not having enough "wins" - you cannot use "diplomacy" forever. Not with bad actors who do not care about it in the first place. You have to use the stick.

Granted, the Olympics have ended and the State of Union speech will happen soon so any war might overshadow all of it. But still, it takes too much time.

 

[LimanimaPT]

It takes too much time with Iran. At this point something has to be done - there is no point to believe that Iran even wants a deal. They want to delay and delay as long as possible to build and fortify itself as long as possible. No deal will be upheld, and just like with everything they will continue lying and dragging their time. Even Trump should be aware how much he is losing the face.

It is one of the reasons why JD is losing political points recently - aside not having enough "wins" - you cannot use "diplomacy" forever. Not with bad actors who do not care about it in the first place. You have to use the stick.

Granted, the Olympics have ended and the State of Union speech will happen soon so any war might overshadow all of it. But still, it takes too much time.

Doesn't this apply to Russia also?

 

[Lukaku's First Touch]

Doesn't this apply to Russia also?

No that's EU's problem. Fuck them (except when we need to use their bases to attack Iran).

 

[winjer]

No that's EU's problem. Fuck them (except when we need to use their bases to attack Iran).

LOL, look at a map and you will find that Russia is right next to the USA.

 

[Lionel Richie]

It takes too much time with Iran. At this point something has to be done - there is no point to believe that Iran even wants a deal.

A deal for what? Not get attacked? That's not a fucking deal, that's an attack.

 

[Lukaku's First Touch]

LOL, look at a map and you will find that Russia is right next to the USA.

How does that negate my point?

 

[winjer]

How does that negate my point?

Russia is not a problem just for the EU. It's a problem foe the whole world, including the USA.
And in case you haven't noticed, Russia also has puppet states near the USA and will keep on trying to create new ones. Just look at Cuba and Venezuela.
And there are countries that are allied with Russia, such as Iran and North Korea.
You need to rethink how you see Russia, because they consider the USA as a life enemy.

 

[Lukaku's First Touch]

Russia is not a problem just for the EU. It's a problem foe the whole world, including the USA.
And in case you haven't noticed, Russia also has puppet states near the USA and will keep on trying to create new ones. Just look at Cuba and Venezuela.
And there are countries that are allied with Russia, such as Iran and North Korea.
You need to rethink how you see Russia, because they consider the USA as a life enemy.

I was making fun of the way the US administration is looking at the Ukraine/Russia conflict. I agree with you.

 

[winjer]

I was making fun of the way the US administration is looking at the Ukraine/Russia conflict. I agree with you.

I didn't get that. Sarcasm sometimes doesn't communicate well through the internet.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Protests ongoing despite the massacre. Brave kids.

What real protests with your lives on the line looks like.

Not paid bad actors and mental illnesses.

 

[Smiggs]

What real protests with your lives on the line looks like.

Not paid bad actors and mental illnesses.

Honestly, more large scale protests may do some good now. I would hope with the US being in the area, Iran's leadership won't massacre it's own citizens. But if they do... give 'em hell.

 

[Rentahamster]

As long as the profit motive exists for war, I'm not confident that those in power have our best interests in mind when it comes to that topic, especially when it coincidentally comes at a time when their polling is bad and when they need to distract from bad press in other areas.

Wag the dog - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

0neAnd0nly This is also why I'm skeptical.

 

[MisterFalcon]

Ah, the guy who claims year after year Russia was provoked into invading Ukraine and is about to win the war is now saying Iran is being attacked because of the zionists controlling the US.

 

[TheAtomicPile]

0neAnd0nly This is also why I'm skeptical.

Oh well if Iran just says they don't want a nuke I guess we should all believe them and be nice. You know, despite the fact that independent agencies keep reporting that they're enriching uranium well beyond what's needed for any civilian use.

I don't know if the voices are getting louder or if I'm just paying more attention but the "sneaky Jews control the world" thing has become incredibly pervasive on the right and left.

 

[Rentahamster]

I don't know if the voices are getting louder or if I'm just paying more attention but the "sneaky Jews control the world" thing has become incredibly pervasive on the right and left.

That's not a good way to steelman the argument about how another country has undue influence over the policy of the USA government. The previous segment goes into that as well.

 

[Wildebeest]

But his is not because Iran got better tech. It's because Israel's system defense was saturated. There is only so many interception missiles that a country can build in a given time and get operational.
This is why Israel, UK, USA, EU are all working to get laser systems operational. Unlike missile defense systems, these will have almost limitless interception rates, while being much cheaper to use.
But most important, it will enable the shift in cost, because sending a thousand dumb missiles, targeting large cities, is much cheaper than sending thousands of highly accurate missiles to take them down.

Laser systems are just another layer of defense. They are are only good against very light and relatively slow targets at a closer range. They can't replace missiles.

 

[TheAtomicPile]

That's not a good way to steelman the argument about how another country has undue influence over the policy of the USA government. The previous segment goes into that as well.

They have an oversized influence but Sachs claims in the video that the US has no real interest in keeping Iran in check and that we're only thinking about it because Israel told us to. It's these types of silly arguments that I'm talking about.

As if we need Israel to tell us to do what we can to stop a Russia / China proxy and their terrorist cells.

 

[EviLore]

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

I wonder if Ford aircaft shit situation contributed to the delay.

 

[Warspite]

I wonder if Ford aircaft shit situation contributed to the delay.

Can you give me some more information on this?

It seems even the USAF is still moving assets into the area.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

Can you give me some more information on this?

It seems even the USAF is still moving assets into the area.

There was that rumor that there was some toilet problem on the aircraft carrier a couple of days ago. So they had to address it. Not sure how true is that though, because there were fake videos and such. There is too much fake news is being thrown around these days. Psyop and stuff.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Such beautiful machines.

I love how the F-22 pilot was unfazed on Assignment Night. Ice(man) in those veins.

 

[Avid Reading Horse]

Do we still have any military hardware in the U.S. or is it all in the middle east?

I'm just worried because my Canadian friend is still crashing out over hockey or whatever and I'm starting to worry that they might try some shit on our northern flank if they sense any weakness.

 

[Boo Who?]

Do we still have any military hardware in the U.S. or is it all in the middle east?

I'm just worried because my Canadian friend is still crashing out over hockey or whatever and I'm starting to worry that they might try some shit on our northern flank if they sense any weakness.

What are they going to do, kill us with politeness?

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

Do we still have any military hardware in the U.S. or is it all in the middle east?

I'm just worried because my Canadian friend is still crashing out over hockey or whatever and I'm starting to worry that they might try some shit on our northern flank if they sense any weakness.

ME has like 30% at best. National Guard by itself has 1k+ airplanes,1k+ helicopters etc. and that's without troops and an aircraft carrier in the pacific.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Do we still have any military hardware in the U.S. or is it all in the middle east?

I'm just worried because my Canadian friend is still crashing out over hockey or whatever and I'm starting to worry that they might try some shit on our northern flank if they sense any weakness.

Don't worry, the citizens have more than enough hardware for that.

 

[jason10mm]

What are they going to do, kill us with politeness?

Though maybe the canadians will invade Minnesota and the somali warlords will hold them off

 

[Avid Reading Horse]

What are they going to do, kill us with politeness?

My friend isn't polite, he called me fat and retarded. All I did was put Gold Medal icons next to the names of any Americans in our Discord.

 

[Rentahamster]

My friend isn't polite, he called me fat and retarded.

He wouldn't be a secret member of the Canadian curling team, would he?

 

[AJUMP23]

My friend isn't polite, he called me fat and retarded. All I did was put Gold Medal icons next to the names of any Americans in our Discord.

Canadians are rude now. Poor Country, Rude, elitist, with their one great province ready to leave as well.

 

[Rentahamster]

Canadians are rude now. Poor Country, Rude, elitist, with their one great province ready to leave as well.

Not in my experience. Every Canadian that I know personally are super cool. Even the ones I've met only in passing have been very polite and well mannered.