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[Men_in_Boxes]

I picked the wrong <-20% on mine even though OP was kinda enough to put hints in the parenthesis, because I am partially retarded.

You Gods special child and we still love you.

 

[LyricalShrike]

Is a tweet like that supposed to attract people to buy the game? It reads more like a deterrent.

Attractive to extraction fans. Unattractive for casuals/PvE people.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Attractive to extraction fans. Unattractive for casuals/PvE people.

Bad marketing overall. The longer article is better, but too long.

 

[Branded]

lol

 

[lh032]

bungie next on the chopping block

 

[SJRB]

Is a tweet like that supposed to attract people to buy the game? It reads more like a deterrent.

Some absolutely retarded decisions were made regarding this game.

Aside from fulltime streamers who the fuck has time and energy to grind for stuff that gets deleted within three months? Every three months? That happens once, maybe twice and you're like "fuck this".

Abhorrent disrespect of players' time.

 

[Branded]

Some absolutely retarded decisions were made regarding this game.

Aside from fulltime streamers who the fuck has time and energy to grind for stuff that gets deleted within three months? Every three months? That happens once, maybe twice and you're like "fuck this".

Abhorrent disrespect of players' time.

The only reason I am playing Arc Raiders again this month is because of the wipes. There's literally fuck all to do otherwise.

The journey back to the top is so fast and easy anyway. It at least gives me something to do again other than having to contend with 20hz tickrate and getting shot around corners lol.

 

[Bernardougf]

 

[Guilty_AI]

Is a tweet like that supposed to attract people to buy the game? It reads more like a deterrent.

Stuff like this is why i can never get into GAAS. Imagine really liking the way the game worked in the first season, and then you come a few months later when everything changed. The game you like just vanished for something familiar yet too different.

 

[Zathalus]

Decent CCU, nothing amazing, with a pretty sharp dropoff.

 

[ZehDon]

Server slam hurt it. 50k debut, 40k hold.

 

[Cumulus]

The only reason I am playing Arc Raiders again this month is because of the wipes. There's literally fuck all to do otherwise.

The journey back to the top is so fast and easy anyway. It at least gives me something to do again

That sounds like a terrible version of groundhog day.....
How is it fun to do the same thing over and over without any substantial permanent progress? I´d rather sniff chlorine before ever doing those braindead missions again.

 

[PeteBull]

I don't think it will do as poor as the other. It has got a much stronger marketing machine behind it. I'll bet on the 100K.

Yup 100k is almost sure at launch considering its bungie's game, after launch tho it all depends on how good game actually is, no marketting/brand/seniority of the studio gonna help if players simply not feeling it, 3 more days and we will know at least initial numbers.

 

[Branded]

That sounds like a terrible version of groundhog day.....
How is it fun to do the same thing over and over without any substantial permanent progress?

I mean it's the nature of the genre/game really. You can never max out your skill tree because you will forever fall behind in terms of skill points to spend. When you prestige (do the expedition) you gain extra stash space, more skill points and other benefits such as less materials required on repairs and what not (along with other rewards such as cosmetics).

For me it's a no-brainer to prestige in these types of games as you gain more than you lose. With every match you play you might lose all of your equipped gear so on both a macro and micro level you will always be at the risk of losing stuff.

People need to start to realize that the extraction genre really is just "roguelike but it's multiplayer".

 

[PeteBull]

Server slam hurt it. 50k debut, 40k hold.

If it debuts at 50k even with extremly high retention/good worth of mouth/playerbase loving it- it wont keep 50% of players medium-term(say 2 months) so if u thinking 50k launch max it could get after 2 months is 25k(and that would be considered as super rare outlier witch such a high retention).

 

[Skifi28]

I predict it's going to be between 0 and 999k

 

[Unknown Soldier]

OP can't seriously expect us to analyze the market conditions, interpret the internet reception of the server slam, think carefully, and then pick the best poll option out of 10 different options

 

[Cumulus]

People need to start to realize that the extraction genre really is just "roguelike but it's multiplayer".

good roguelikes give you good permanent progress, though. What I get in arc amounts to nothing imho.
Oh well I shouldn`t derail the thread, thanks for the answer.

 

[SolarFry]

It'll be bigger than Jesus.

 

[Stuart360]

I orig had it at 150k, but after seeing the reception, especially on Steam, i'm going with 80k with big drops over the following month.

 

[Branded]

good roguelikes give you good permanent progress, though. What I get in arc amounts to nothing imho.

Exactly, which is another problem in and of itself. The meta upgrades are 'okay' but still feel meager in the grand scheme of things Then again, how do you balance certain upgrades/unlocks for people who do have the time to prestige against others who don't?

I am fine with the current system though, I just wish the cosmetics (and even the prestige icon) weren't so lackluster.

 

[Herbspiceguy]

My predictions: today's server slam CCU peak will not be topped (even in the weekend), retail launch 50% of server slam CCU peak, and then a gradual drop to 50% of that peak after the first month.

This is not going to pull in the PC/extraction crowd.

I gave my Steam CCU predictions on the server slam launch evening, so retail launch: 70K.

 

[LyricalShrike]

That sounds like a terrible version of groundhog day.....
How is it fun to do the same thing over and over without any substantial permanent progress? I´d rather sniff chlorine before ever doing those braindead missions again.

The games are just fun to play. The sense of progression you get from improving as a player over time far exceeds grinding some arbitrary chore for a number increment. New maps, missions, or tweaks to systems keep things fresh. 3 months is generous. Rust is one of the biggest games on steam and you wipe weekly on most servers.

 

[Avid Reading Horse]

I voted for the option with the solid plurality of the votes. I'm still not sure if I want this game to succeed or get in the ground. BF6 is running Redsec solos as a public test this weekend so my odds of taking a $40 flyer on Marathon launch have completely cratered.

 

[ZehDon]

If it debuts at 50k even with extremly high retention/good worth of mouth/playerbase loving it- it wont keep 50% of players medium-term(say 2 months) so if u thinking 50k launch max it could get after 2 months is 25k(and that would be considered as super rareoutlier witch such a high retention).

I think Marathon is going to pull in a tight niche audience, so I'm expecting lower than expected launch CCUs, but higher than usual retention. What does Month 2, 6, or 12 look like? No idea. Bunige's idea of supporting a live service has been to milk their player base till they bleed. Marathon is launching with an anaemic amount of content, and a laundry list of community requests. We'll see what Bungies does.

 

[Portugeezer]

Sony insists in these live service games not being F2P to force PS Plus requirements on PS5, it will bomb.

 

[evanft]

I hope this game is a big hit. It would be absolutely hilarious to see the cope and seethe from grifting tourists.

 

[PeteBull]

I hope this game is a big hit. It would be absolutely hilarious to see the cope and seethe from grifting tourists.

Full disclousure launch gonna be hilarious either way, and likely both sides gonna make funny gifs/memes/comments especially if they feel they are winning aka other side is losing, and im gonna be there to witness it all
I can already see men in boxes doing some crazy shit no matter the launch numbers:

 

[Branded]

 

[Holammer]

Guru Larry made a good point about Marathon on Twitter. The game is expensive and the amount of players they'll need to turn a profit will be big.
Wikipedia says they had about 300 people working on it for 4+ years.

 

[Emmy Ator Best]

Highest we can vote is only half or Arc Raiders? This was supposed to be the future of gaming

 

[coachmcguirk91]

I think Marathon is going to pull in a tight niche audience, so I'm expecting lower than expected launch CCUs, but higher than usual retention. What does Month 2, 6, or 12 look like? No idea. Bunige's idea of supporting a live service has been to milk their player base till they bleed. Marathon is launching with an anaemic amount of content, and a laundry list of community requests. We'll see what Bungies does.

Dude, have you seen the skill trees? There is 100's of hours of upgrades to grind during the course of season 1. Destiny 1 had anemic content at lauch. Marathon having 4 maps during launch window is completely fine for the genre

Also, you can't really bleed customers in PvP games the same way you can in PvE GAAS games. The online outrage would not be worth it. Destiny could get away with it because it is mostly a PvE game.

 

[Roman Empire]

Idk if the full release will hit the numbers of the Server Slam. I will go with 100k CCU on release and the drop off be of 40% in a month.

 

[ZehDon]

Dude, have you seen the skill trees? There is 100's of hours of upgrades to grind during the course of season 1. Destiny 1 had anemic content at lauch. Marathon having 4 maps during launch window is completely fine for the genre

Also, you can't really bleed customers in PvP games the same way you can in PvE GAAS games. The online outrage would not be worth it. Destiny could get away with it because it is mostly a PvE game.

The length of the grind is irrelevant if the grind is puddle-deep; expecting players to slog through the same small four maps with rinse and repeat encounters for 1,000 hours is asinine. Every stream of Marathon is identical; the game cannot generate interesting play experiences. Players who lean harder into the competitive PvP aspect seem to enjoy it immensely, but that won't carry the game to the Arc Raiders levels of success that Bungie need to survive Marathon unscathed. I expect a small but incredibly loyal following to emerge, consisting of the hardest PvP adherents - which will kill any ambitions at the broader audience Bungie need. Ultimately, I expect layoffs at Bungie within the year when Marathon emerges as a niche PvP title. Then, I expect Marathon to go F2P before Christmas and the aggressive monetisation to kick in as Sony tries to salvage it. The game is tiny, cheaply made, with bare bones content. 50k CCU a week post-launch is the best they can hope for.

 

[Rentahamster]

Decent numbers at first. but all games experience a drop off and this one shouldn't be any different.

 

[Shubh_C63]

Didn't we already had a CCU prediction poll by MIB earlier.

150K, I believe Bungie. but will go down pretty damn fast. Excited to see raid map gameplay.

 

[phant0m]

The only reason I am playing Arc Raiders again this month is because of the wipes. There's literally fuck all to do otherwise.

The journey back to the top is so fast and easy anyway. It at least gives me something to do again other than having to contend with 20hz tickrate and getting shot around corners lol.

I completed 8 runs during the slam and got to level 10. My vault was basically full (certainly not top tier gear, but a bunch of decent stuff)

So yeah, doesn't take long to build up a decent stockpile. I'm hoping the story/lore also keeps my interest

 

[diffusionx]

I watched some videos of this game last night and am more convinced it is going to bomba. It could be a major bomba. I don't really see a hook here outside of a very narrow "erm you like extraction shooters but tarkov is too messy and arc raiders is too hugbox." The art and interface is very polarizing - I like it, but it's split down the middle. I don't think the Bungie thing will bring them a big audience. The delay was probably a wise move but they couldn;t change the core game. I'd be scared if I was them right now.

They spent $250 million on this thing, it's crazy.

 

[ViciousAgenda]

50k launch, under 10k within 2 weeks.

 

[crazepharmacist]

Is steam charts down? The webpage won't load for me.

 

[Evil Calvin]

Not F2P.....so it will crash and burn.............

 

[coachmcguirk91]

The length of the grind is irrelevant if the grind is puddle-deep; expecting players to slog through the same small four maps with rinse and repeat encounters for 1,000 hours is asinine. Every stream of Marathon is identical; the game cannot generate interesting play experiences. Players who lean harder into the competitive PvP aspect seem to enjoy it immensely, but that won't carry the game to the Arc Raiders levels of success that Bungie need to survive Marathon unscathed. I expect a small but incredibly loyal following to emerge, consisting of the hardest PvP adherents - which will kill any ambitions at the broader audience Bungie need. Ultimately, I expect layoffs at Bungie within the year when Marathon emerges as a niche PvP title. Then, I expect Marathon to go F2P before Christmas and the aggressive monetisation to kick in as Sony tries to salvage it. The game is tiny, cheaply made, with bare bones content. 50k CCU a week post-launch is the best they can hope for.

The more hardcore nature of Marathon doesn't mean it won't be highly profitable in the long run. I think the floor for Marathon is Rainbow 6 Siege or Rust. Games that have a dedicated fan base that still rake in tons of money every year, even though they are rarely discussed.

And you underestimate how well Bungie adapts to player feedback. The game is night and day from 10 months ago. They have a ton of resources at their disposal to evolve the game where it needs to be

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I watched some videos of this game last night and am...

 

[SHAKEZ]

Guru Larry made a good point about Marathon on Twitter. The game is expensive and the amount of players they'll need to turn a profit will be big.
Wikipedia says they had about 300 people working on it for 4+ years.

Now imagine if they spent that time making an actual game?

 

[coachmcguirk91]

Guru Larry made a good point about Marathon on Twitter. The game is expensive and the amount of players they'll need to turn a profit will be big.
Wikipedia says they had about 300 people working on it for 4+ years.

How many copies has Fortnite sold? Zero. People who gauge GAAS games success based off of $ sales don't know what they are talking about

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

How many copies has Fortnite sold? Zero. People who gauge GAAS games success based off of $ sales don't know what they are talking about

Uh. Fornite is free

 

[kpopSuperstar]

There is no way it's gonna retain 80% of players in season 2, that would make it on the level of Fortnite.

If it retains 30% to 40% of the opening CCU when season 2 arrives, it would be a gigantic success.

 

[Moridianae]

Maybe 100k, but I don't see it sustaining that. It'll drop pretty fast, imo. Most opinions I read(that weren't rage bait or whatever) mostly were a resounding "meh".

At $40 plus I'm assuming paid battle passes(I havent followed that part), we shall see.

The server slam drop off despite being free was pretty concerning.

 

[hyperbertha]

I hope this game is a big hit. It would be absolutely hilarious to see the cope and seethe from grifting tourists.

I hope it fails. Would be hilarious the cope and seethe from anti gaming live service garbage people.

 

[diffusionx]

I was watching videos to see what people were thinking of it. It's highly polarizing, in a niche genre, with an art style that will turn off a huge chunk of people interested in it.

Not sure what the problem is, to discuss this in a ccu prediction thread you started.