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Monitoring the situation in Iran

for those glazing Rubio here's some more red meat. thanks Obama.


Honestly wish Rubio was POTUS right now. He has the chops for it. I'm glad Trump switched gears and leaned in Rubio's direction, but we could be doing so much better domestically.

I've oft wondered what would become of the ME if cold fusion or some other method revolutionized the energy sector.
If oil become worthless, the entire region collapses.
Or the other logical conclusion, the oil dries up. They pull hundreds of millions of barrels a day outta the ground, it can't last forever.
Saudi Arabia is well aware that oil won't keep them around in the long run. It's why they've been diversifying, investing into gaming among many other things.
 
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China has been pretty good at buying stuff up overseas due to soft foreign investment laws and certainly is pretty good at RUTHLESSLY squashing any internal disputes (re Ughuirs) due to soft power enabling them to escape virtually any international scrutiny, but their ability to actually PROJECT military power is HIGHLY questionable. How good is their doctrine? How good are their logistics (here I would expect them to excell), how good is their maintenance? A lot of their stuff seems to be reverse engineered from western tech, so does it really work? The US, if nothing else, are MASTERS at force projection because it's basically all we do, for DECADES. We have bases and contacts everywhere and can be EVERYWHERE. Stuff like the current Iran operation would be unimaginable for China, they have no where near the platforms and the connections to move in and operate in such a fashion.
What always confuses me is that it seems people just don't learn from the history. Historically China has never had proper foreign policy. Zero. None. They were good at trade, but in power projection, alliances and others - they have never had them and they have never been good at that. They literally think that everybody that are not part of their "middle kingdom" are barbarians.

One thing with the current war - granted it hasn't ended - is that it demonstrated what USA can actually do together with REAL allies and how much USA can do for the allies, when they are unshackled. I think the current war shows a lot and might change a lot of public perception among various countries. The populations (like europoors) might not like it, but politically this war - if ends successfully - will give Trump administration a lot of credit. If Venezuela case was - eh, it is South America, kinda far away etc. This one is not - and China (BRICS and co.) showed that they are not allies or anything and China won't do anything for allies.

Israel + USA alliance is something that a lot of countries might be willing to recreate. It also demonstrated how useless european countries are. So much for the "superpower".

Honestly wish Rubio was POTUS right now. He has the chops for it. I'm glad Trump switched gears and leaned in Rubio's direction, but we could be doing so much better domestically.
Rubio is too good, terrific as the Secretary of State. For the presidential position though he lacks certain element. Not sure what it is exactly but there is certain "appeal" that the president usually has. Like you know something from the "actor". I think he is too direct. But absolutely terrific as an executioner. Like Agrippa.


Basically confirms that CNN works for CIA. I wonder how much propaganda will CNN spew now because they are basically BBC but for CIA. I recall how they were interviewing - accidentally - all the supporters of ayatollah. Expect a lot of reporting over "dying children", "USA attacking hospitals", "Israel killing kids" and so on.
 
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It was always gonna be about the GCC's petrol capacity. It's the biggest leverage by far in the region.

What I didn't know was that suspending oil production could potentially damage reservoirs and production infrastructure.
 
What always confuses me is that it seems people just don't learn from the history. Historically China has never had proper foreign policy. Zero. None. They were good at trade, but in power projection, alliances and others - they have never had them and they have never been good at that. They literally think that everybody that are not part of their "middle kingdom" are barbarians.

I think 'modern' China realizes that their long stretches of ignoring the outer world only leaves them vulnerable, so now they are much more aggressive on dominating certain fields (like AI), and electronics manufacture) to ensure they aren't open to exploitation. Plus they NEED so many imports, buying up the sources is only logical.

Ultimately I think China would act a lot more like a european colonial power...i.e. exploit the ever living SHIT out of the natives to extract max resources with no regard to health and safety, if they could. Like Belgium in the Congo levels.
 
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Honestly wish Rubio was POTUS right now. He has the chops for it. I'm glad Trump switched gears and leaned in Rubio's direction, but we could be doing so much better domestically.


Saudi Arabia is well aware that oil won't keep them around in the long run. It's why they've been diversifying, investing into gaming among many other things.

They're pretty safe for the foreseeable future.

"At today's production rate, Saudi Arabia could theoretically produce oil for about 60–80 years."
 
I think 'modern' China realizes that their long stretches of ignoring the outer world only leaves them vulnerable, so now they are much more aggressive on dominating certain fields (like AI), and electronics manufacture) to ensure they aren't open to exploitation. Plus they NEED so many imports, buying up the sources is only logical.
And even then they are not projecting the power - it is again just their classic merchant-like approach. Ultimately foreign policy is about the export of the politcs. "Fairness", "capitalism", "socialism", "freedom" etc. China has none, nothing they can export that would allow to create "alliances".

I still think that if Iranian war ends successfully it will lead to a really big realignment worldwide.
 
And even then they are not projecting the power - it is again just their classic merchant-like approach. Ultimately foreign policy is about the export of the politcs. "Fairness", "capitalism", "socialism", "freedom" etc. China has none, nothing they can export that would allow to create "alliances".

I still think that if Iranian war ends successfully it will lead to a really big realignment worldwide.
I'm not adverse to letting them try. How would they run the pacific sphere? What's their tolerance for pirates, voiding contracts, internal humans right violations?

I think many countries would MUCH rather the US be running things, but who can say? Though the very high chinese tolerance for selling counterfeit goods and rampant IP theft suggests their concept of "fairness" is......slippery at best. While the US certainly pushes for things that favor us, there is more of a "tit for tat" exchange of value I think.

But seeing their oil supply getting pinched is gonna stir up a response, I think. I'm curious to see what it is. (Another) trade/tariff war with the US? More overt attempts to buy countries away from the US? Military occupation of their oil/resource sources to defy US intervention is how we would probably respond, so maybe that's what they will do as well.
 
And even then they are not projecting the power - it is again just their classic merchant-like approach. Ultimately foreign policy is about the export of the politcs. "Fairness", "capitalism", "socialism", "freedom" etc. China has none, nothing they can export that would allow to create "alliances".

I still think that if Iranian war ends successfully it will lead to a really big realignment worldwide.
I think China is dipping their toes into the pool by gradually projecting cultural influence. You can see it with cinema, gaming, etc. Small stakes but good long term investment.
 
Basically confirms that CNN works for CIA. I wonder how much propaganda will CNN spew now because they are basically BBC but for CIA. I recall how they were interviewing - accidentally - all the supporters of ayatollah. Expect a lot of reporting over "dying children", "USA attacking hospitals", "Israel killing kids" and so on.

Excuse Me What GIF by Bounce


The CIA works for who?
 
Basically confirms that CNN works for CIA. I wonder how much propaganda will CNN spew now because they are basically BBC but for CIA. I recall how they were interviewing - accidentally - all the supporters of ayatollah. Expect a lot of reporting over "dying children", "USA attacking hospitals", "Israel killing kids" and so on.
This makes absolutely no sense.
 
Trump thinks he can turn Iran into a vassal state without boots on the ground just like Venezuela...




Article:
US President Donald Trump says he needs to be personally involved in selecting Iran's next leader, just as he was in Venezuela.

"They are wasting their time. Khamenei's son is a lightweight. I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy [Rodriguez] in Venezuela," Trump tells Axios in a phone interview, acknowledging reports that Surprme Leader Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba has been tapped as a likely successor.

"Khamenei's son is unacceptable to me. We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran," Trump says.

Trump's comments appear to undercut US claims that the goal of the war in Iran is not regime change, even if it would be a welcome byproduct.
 
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Iran is not Venezuela, so Trump seems to be jumping the gun with all this talk of who will or won't be the leader.
 
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It seems more likely that this was a plan in case Khomeini killed and didn't have a successor. Just attack all the enemies. The plan's implementation is pretty embarrassing, which probably means there's still a lack of
coordination.

Some analysts are saying that, since the 12 days war and the lack of reaction there because the orders didn't arrived in time (the top brass was destroyed), the IRGC commanders went for a decentralized command structure.

So basically what's probably is happening "when there is no one bombing us, you (missile commander) go out and bomb one of our closets enemies in these predetermined targets until you exaust your stockpile"
 
I like this open hostility. And people are wondering why rest of the world don't like USA and Americans right now?
You should be more concerned that a good portion of the US is starting to hate Canada and Europe. The domestic political wins that euro and canadian politicians have been making by attacking the republican party in the US is going to have long term consequences. Most Americans don't care or think about these places, but are now starting to. That is bad news for them.
 
You should be more concerned that a good portion of the US is starting to hate Canada and Europe. The domestic political wins that euro and canadian politicians have been making by attacking the republican party in the US is going to have long term consequences. Most Americans don't care or think about these places, but are now starting to. That is bad news for them.

Bad news for Europe, how? We are talking about sovereign countries here, they don't have to listen to what USA is saying. They also don't have to be a part of war started by USA and Israel (that is not in NATO).

A lot of countries helped USA with Afghanistan and Iraq wars and Trump was mocking them (and all deceased soldiers) few months ago.

Trump acts like a headless chicken so no wonder that people are laughing at him.
 
Bad news for Europe, how? We are talking about sovereign countries here, they don't have to listen to what USA is saying. They also don't have to be a part of war started by USA and Israel (that is not in NATO).

A lot of countries helped USA with Afghanistan and Iraq wars and Trump was mocking them (and all deceased soldiers) few months ago.

Trump acts like a headless chicken so no wonder that people are laughing at him.
I'm not talking about this current war. I don't care that Europeans are not joining in, it is probably best if they don't since their cities are in range of Iran's missiles. I'm talking about inserting themselves into US domestic politics. That will be a long term disaster for Europe. Right now most Americans have a favorable opinion of NATO and even most republicans think that the Greenland shit is nuts. If that changes it will be big trouble for all involved.
 
You should be more concerned that a good portion of the US is starting to hate Canada and Europe. The domestic political wins that euro and canadian politicians have been making by attacking the republican party in the US is going to have long term consequences. Most Americans don't care or think about these places, but are now starting to. That is bad news for them.
Whatever. When the US crashes the global economy they will all be too busy trying to work out how to put things back together without the US at the center to care.
 
I'm not talking about this current war. I don't care that Europeans are not joining in, it is probably best if they don't since their cities are in range of Iran's missiles. I'm talking about inserting themselves into US domestic politics. That will be a long term disaster for Europe. Right now most Americans have a favorable opinion of NATO and even most republicans think that the Greenland shit is nuts. If that changes it will be big trouble for all involved.

You think USA will attack Europe?

USA is inserting itself into EU politics from quite some time now:

 
You think USA will attack Europe?

USA is inserting itself into EU politics from quite some time now:

No of course not. But all support for NATO will evaporate. If we are not in NATO why not ally with Russia against China? If we are allies with Russia why not sell them F-35s?

To be clear I don't want this. I want strong alliances. But to have this long term foreigners need to worry about their own shit and stay out of US politics.
 
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Gents, this about the people in Iran, maybe getting the chance to have some kind of free lives. For women and children not to be raped daily, gay folks to not be murdered, honor killed, etc.

Stop with the European vs America idiocracy. Instead of being keyboard warriors talking crap about either place, go join the military and actually do something.

Take your asses to Thailand and build orphanages, the Philippines to help with educating their young ones with the Seabees, rebuild hospitals in Iraq, go to the horn Africa and stop the killing of infants and women, go to Haiti and help with their constant disasters.

There is no need for this. We are allies and have worked together for quite a long time. How the governments treat each other isn't the citizenry.

Bro hug it out, remove the dildos from your asses and think of those in Iran right now.
 
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No of course not. But all support for NATO will evaporate. If we are not in NATO why not ally with Russia against China? If we are allies with Russia why not sell them F-35s?

To be clear I don't want this. I want strong alliances. But to have this long term foreigners need to worry about their own shit and stay out of US politics.

This tactic of "blowing up" countries that USA don't like is not exactly super smart in the long run. Also note that so far (after WW2) USA was pretty much only attacking small, often backwards countries - and even with that it lost in Vietnam. What would happen if USA attacked far stronger enemy? Will USA population support that? Also, attacking former allies?

USA forming alliances with their enemies would be super funny, but not something that would surprise me based on what Trump is doing currently.
 
He was right when he characterised NATO allies as preferring to stay a little off the front lines, and that is playing out again now. It was harsh to a couple of members, but it was a fair assessment of the group collectively.

The position of most of NATO seems to be that they support the objective, and want the US to succeed in that objective for their own benefit just as much as for America's, but they'd really rather not have to incur any risk in helping achieve that objective. The UK was not in that group previously but has now joined it under Starmberlain. Maybe the French will get actively involved when their carrier arrives, we'll see.
 
Gents, this about the people in Iran, maybe getting the chance to have some kind of free lives. For women and children not to be raped daily, gay folks to not be murdered, honor killed, etc.

Stop with the European vs America idiocracy. Instead of being keyboard warriors talking crap about either place, go join the military and actually do something.

Take your asses to Thailand and build orphanages, the Philippines to help with educating their young ones with the Seabees, rebuild hospitals in Iraq, go to the horn Africa and stop the killing of infants and women, go to Haiti and help with their constant disasters.

There is no need for this. We are allies and have worked together for quite a long time. How the governments treat each other isn't the citizenry.

Bro hug it out, remove the dildos from your asses and think of those in Iran right now.
Agreed, most people just meme but there are a select few here who seem to want the US to invade europe for whatever bizzare reason. We're allies, no matter how hard Trump tries to ruffle that fact.
 
He was right when he characterised NATO allies as preferring to stay a little off the front lines, and that is playing out again now. It was harsh to a couple of members, but it was a fair assessment of the group collectively.

The position of most of NATO seems to be that they support the objective, and want the US to succeed in that objective for their own benefit just as much as for America's, but they'd really rather not have to incur any risk in helping achieve that objective. The UK was not in that group previously but has now joined it under Starmberlain. Maybe the French will get actively involved when their carrier arrives, we'll see.
Typically, the world sits back and lets the US do the dirty work before they jump in. The other big countries have the money and good gear too. They just dont want to because they got zero balls.
 
I see the left falling for social media posts again and again, the latest being a boy waving goodbye supposedly killed at a girls school. They are so fucking gullible.
 
He was right when he characterised NATO allies as preferring to stay a little off the front lines, and that is playing out again now. It was harsh to a couple of members, but it was a fair assessment of the group collectively.

The position of most of NATO seems to be that they support the objective, and want the US to succeed in that objective for their own benefit just as much as for America's, but they'd really rather not have to incur any risk in helping achieve that objective. The UK was not in that group previously but has now joined it under Starmberlain. Maybe the French will get actively involved when their carrier arrives, we'll see.

You're kind of derailing. He made his comment about Afghanistan which was patently false. We have people on this board who fought in Afghanistan on behalf of NATO countries.
 
Oil situation starting to get a bit out of hand. Not too bad right now at 80/bbl which we've seen not long ago, but will be tough if it starts making past 100. Real pressure will be on 120+
 
But seeing their oil supply getting pinched is gonna stir up a response, I think. I'm curious to see what it is. (Another) trade/tariff war with the US? More overt attempts to buy countries away from the US? Military occupation of their oil/resource sources to defy US intervention is how we would probably respond, so maybe that's what they will do as well.
The problem is that the chinese reaction - or lack thereof - will also make other countries think twice regarding their support of China too. Though of course it might be possible that it won't change much either. Plus it remains to be seen what is the result of the current military purge in China is going to bring.

I think China is dipping their toes into the pool by gradually projecting cultural influence. You can see it with cinema, gaming, etc. Small stakes but good long term investment.
The thing with cinema (they don't export that much chinese movies though. Most of them do not even hit the theaters) or gaming is that they do not export the culture much. There own censorship machine prevents from that kind of export. Maybe in the later, but even with their content it is more of a "copy" of the existing things rather than a trend. We might see later but there is no movement like for example with kpop or anime. Maybe on a longer timeline...

Excuse Me What GIF by Bounce


The CIA works for who?
CIA is not the monolith though. It is more like a set of organizations or groups. Just like every other institution like the Congress for example with their caucuses.

I like this open hostility. And people are wondering why rest of the world don't like USA and Americans right now?
Do you think americans care? Well democrats do seem to care a lot about what other think of them, but that's their own problem. Almost every other "beloved" group in Europe (like muslims) do not think much what europeans think of them. Not to mention even within Europe the french people don't think much about what polish people think of them and so on.

A lot of countries helped USA with Afghanistan and Iraq wars and Trump was mocking them (and all deceased soldiers) few months ago.

I don't care that Europeans are not joining in,
The funny part is that they are currently trying to join because - just like with people brining in NATO Article 5 from GWOT - they want to talk later about how useful they were (at least they are not like Kuwait shooting down american planes by mistake lol).
 
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Do you think americans care? Well democrats do seem to care a lot about what other think of them, but that's their own problem. Almost every other "beloved" group in Europe (like muslims) do not think much what europeans think of them. Not to mention even within Europe the french people don't think much about what polish people think of them and so on.

But you realize that this is not USA only forum? I don't post pictures of homeless people in the "richest country in the world" (where majority of that wealth is in the hands of few people). You may not like what European countries are doing but using insults like that is like primary school level.
 
Doesn't look like Iran. Have to be careful on social media there's so much bullshit floating around
Doesn't matter where it is. It's a statement for these women while the western loonies we have to deal with tell them they're wrong.
 
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Only the last clip is actually from Iran from an unknown date.

Per Gemini:

Woman in "Fuck Khamenei" Shirt (0:00 - 0:14): * Location: Place Victor Hugo, Paris, France

Woman Removing Veil in Open Square (0:15 - 0:25): * Location: Likely Europe

Large Street Protest (0:45 - 0:49): * Location: Los Angeles, USA

Kurdish Girls Dancing (0:50 - 0:55): * Location: Kurdistan Province, Iran
 
The US has no plan or clear objective. Regime change wont happen without boots on the ground and I doubt even Trump is that stupid.

Unless his Israeli masters tell him to of course.
 
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He made his comment about Afghanistan which was patently false.
As a characterisation of the contribution of NATO allies collectively it was correct. Like I said, it was harsh to some individual NATO allies.

We have people on this board who fought in Afghanistan on behalf of NATO countries.
I didn't take his statement as a comment on the bravery of any given individual. It was a comment on the manner in which the NATO allies -at the state level- prefer to contribute.

A comment which was strongly rebuffed at the time, but is playing out again now, albeit not strictly in a NATO context.
 
The US has no plan or clear objective. Regime change wont happen without boots on the ground and I doubt even Trump is that stupid.
The plan seems to be to eliminate the ability for Iran to project any power by eliminating their drone program, air defenses, ballistic missile programs, and of course nuclear programs. I don't think there is a plan beyond this. I am not sure that I agree that this is a good idea, but the 12 day war illustrated that Iran is a paper tiger and so they took the chance before they become nuclear.
 
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