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[Chaplain]

the mhz is wrong tho so i wonder how old this chart is.

February 18th 2006

 

[Lord Error]

I honestly think they overestimated the production cost of Cell in that chart. It was a new and novel design, so it was large amounts of R&D money of course. The drive cost is probably overestimated as well, but considering that a DVD would cost them maybe $30 to have there instead, even if they overestimated it, it's still a huge difference.

 

[duk]

I honestly think they overestimated the production cost of Cell in that chart. It was a new and novel design, so it was large amounts of R&D money of course. The drive cost is probably overestimated as well, but considering that a DVD would cost them maybe $30 to have there instead, even if they overestimated it, it's still a huge difference.

yeah it needs to define 'costs'

 

[StevieP]

Which is entirely my point: you can't launch at $499+ because you'll get stuck in the "sell badly or take huge losses per unit" trap that Sony found themselves in. It's not that complicated!



No, the 360 was definitely selling genuinely poorly.

Nothing will launch over $400 again. PS3 was a massive bomb for sony sales wise and financially. Sony had the strongest brand in gaming before the $600 debacle.

Listen to these folks. Also, do not listen to iSuppli.

 

[iamshadowlark]

Listen to these folks. Also, do not listen to iSuppli.

Yep because the numbers you pull out your ass are 100% more accurate.

 

[iamshadowlark]

yeah it needs to define 'costs'

Its a "bill of materials" .

 

[Jonm1010]

My predictions:

1) Loop - Is the codename for the continued shrink and packaging (slimlining) of the 360. 360 and Loop has the same meaning, continuous. This may or may not come with repackaged Kinect. This will launch mid 2013 at a $150 price point for lower end sku. Likely to include higher amount of solid memory. MS will continue to push 360 as the entry price point for HD gaming and sell bucket loads all the way to $99 price point. This is same strategy as PS2, when PS3 launched and will continue to sell buckets. This will provide profits needed to fuel next-gen.

2) Infinite - Is the codename for 720 or next gen machine. Will be a pretty powerful machine with even more closely tied to Kinect 2.0. H/W will be 6 core cpu, single core gpu (think customized 6990) with 3-4gb of fast main ram and 60-100mb edram, BD drive. Will launch in mid 2013 at price point of not more than $400 for the upper sku. There maybe 2 skus, one for those that want to upgrade to next gen and have a fully inclusive services 'ready' machine and one for those that want all the bells n whistles included. New trilogy of Gears and Forza launches with system. Should have 6 months-1 year head start on PS4.

Maybe this is what the other rumor from the digitalfoundry thread was trying to say but the way this is articulated makes absolute sense. Though I still think late 2012 is the most likely. If not an August or September 2013 release.. I just don't see a mid year release.

 

[StevieP]

Yep because the numbers you pull out your ass are 100% more accurate.

They probably would be. iSuppli is notoriously inaccurate.

Maybe this is what the other rumor from the digitalfoundry thread was trying to say but the way this is articulated makes absolute sense. Though I still think late 2012 is the most likely. If not an August or September 2013 release.. I just don't see a mid year release.

November 2012.

 

[iamshadowlark]

They probably would be. iSuppli is notoriously inaccurate.



November 2012.

What? Dude they get prices directly from Elpida, samsung, Marvell, toshiba etc. They are literally the most reliable source of info we can get without working for the companies involved. If you can take in the fact that they are still estimates you can use their info and get a highly accurate picture of the costs at hand.

 

[Chaplain]

November 2012.

720 is not launching in 2012. Maybe a updated 360 will launch next year, but not a new system.

 

[StevieP]

What? Dude they get prices directly from Elpida, samsung, Marvell, toshiba etc. They are literally the most reliable source of info we can get without working for the companies involved. If you can take in the fact that they are still estimates you can use their info and get a highly accurate picture of the costs at hand.

They get the "closest equivalent part" from said manufacturers. They are as often-wrong as Pachter.

720 is not launching in 2012. Maybe a updated 360 will launch next year, but not a new system.

Care to place some bets?

 

[Chaplain]

Care to place some bets?

I won't bet because I do not believe in betting.

That being said, logic goes against 720 coming out next year. MS is making so much money on the 360 right now. They would be throwing money away by release a new console next year.

 

[iamshadowlark]

They get the "closest equivalent part" from said manufacturers. They are as often-wrong as Pachter.



Care to place some bets?

Erm no. They have contracts with different manufacturers to provide them with the data that they use for their bill of sale approximations. They generalize like you mention for generic parts like PCB boards and simple ICs and such.

 

[specialguy]

Care to place some bets?

Are we allowed to bet on GAF? I am definitely down.

There is no way a new Xbox will launch in 2012. Even if they were PLANNING on it, which they aren't, it will be delayed like everything else in videogames (hell, it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility the Wii U doesn't even make 2012, after originally some rumors implied a possible late 11 launch) I'm sure Nintendo would delay it if they possibly could)

Then add that Halo 4 is coming with massive marketing campaign in holiday 2012 (and no, it isn't coming on Xb720) it becomes even more lulzworthy to think Ms would launch 720.

Then add that 360 is selling better than ever, and still priced 199/299, it becomes even more lulzworthy than lulzworthy.

Very sadly, my best guess would be 2014. I am really hoping for 2013 though. Hell, 2015 wouldn't shock me, it's probably more likely than 2012.

 

[iceatcs]

I won't bet because I do not believe in betting.

That being said, logic goes against 720 coming out next year. MS is making so much money on the 360 right now. They would be throwing money away by release a new console next year.

PS2 was came first NPD for home console near every months in 2006*.
(*Maybe all 12 months - I couldn't find Jan, March, Aug, Sept)

So it didn't stop Sony release PS3 while PS2 was still high demand.

 

[StevieP]

Erm no. They have contracts with different manufacturers to provide them with the data that they use for their bill of sale approximations. They generalize like you mention for generic parts like PCB boards and simple ICs and such.

I wish I kept history of such things, but I've seen them miss the mark by over $100 in past examples.

Are we allowed to bet on GAF? I am definitely down.

There is no way a new Xbox will launch in 2012. Even if they were PLANNING on it, which they aren't, it will be delayed like everything else in videogames (hell, it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility the Wii U doesn't even make 2012, after originally some rumors implied a possible late 11 launch) I'm sure Nintendo would delay it if they possibly could)

They absolutely are. Without a doubt. Think logically and consider Balmer's vision.

Then add that Halo 4 is coming with massive marketing campaign in holiday 2012 (and no, it isn't coming on Xb720) it becomes even more lulzworthy to think Ms would launch 720.

Twilight Princess.

Then add that 360 is selling better than ever, and still priced 199/299, it becomes even more lulzworthy than lulzworthy.

PS2 is still selling.

 

[bgassassin]

But people now have used the consoles and are aware of it ... and I am quite sure they will be paying attention to what similar or expanded features are on the upcoming ones. Things change.

This will definitely be the generation to put that to the test.

I agree. The second reason is because of the Cell.

I don't think that one is correct looking at the launch side. The ones I've seen had the CPU cheaper, the GPU more expensive (the GDDR3 was included in the cost because it was an MCM), and the $50 for memory (I've seen as $48) was only for the XDR. Can't remember the rest off the top of my head.

I won't bet because I do not believe in betting.

That being said, logic goes against 720 coming out next year. MS is making so much money on the 360 right now. They would be throwing money away by release a new console next year.

I think we can both agree that present performance doesn't indicate future performance. At the same time if MS wants Kinect to be integrated into peoples' lives at the level they want, then they can't wait till people are tired of it. If they did get tired of it then they won't accept it in other areas of their lives.

 

[alphaNoid]

I won't bet because I do not believe in betting.

That being said, logic goes against 720 coming out next year. MS is making so much money on the 360 right now. They would be throwing money away by release a new console next year.

Would they? Or would they extend their lead and get another head start strengthening the Xbox brand further? There are a lot more factors at play than just hardware investment. The long term success of the Xbox brand is always to be considered and calculated moves are required to stay ahead.

As it stands MS is behind in every market accept OS and console. Their phones, tablets everything are years behind so when the Xbox brand (a successful brand) has an opportunity to be bleeding edge, hip and marketable ... don't bet against Microsoft not jumping in ahead of the competition.

I think a 2012 launch is VERY possible.

 

[Clear]

Software support matters, and given MS dependence on third-party software providers there's no way they'll have enough product to launch before 2013.

Even if there are first-gen devkits in the wild right now I still can't see them being ready to launch within 12 months. 18 months is a push, 24 far more likely.

 

[iamshadowlark]

This will definitely be the generation to put that to the test.



I don't think that one is correct looking at the launch side. The ones I've seen had the CPU cheaper, the GPU more expensive (the GDDR3 was included in the cost because it was an MCM), and the $50 for memory (I've seen as $48) was only for the XDR. Can't remember the rest off the top of my head.

This is the best one AFAIK for the launch

http://img260.imageshack.us/img260/9659/untitled2fl4.jpg

 

[Raistlin]

IMO, they either launch first or significantly after the competition. There is not point coming to the table a year later with very minor differences as they did this gen.

I agree with your sentiment, but just to be clear ... I'm pretty sure Sony does as well.

PS3 wasn't planned to launch when it did, there were delays due to yield/production issues on some of the components. It was supposed to launch soon after 360.

 

[HocusPocus]

Software support matters, and given MS dependence on third-party software providers there's no way they'll have enough product to launch before 2013.

Even if there are first-gen devkits in the wild right now I still can't see them being ready to launch within 12 months. 18 months is a push, 24 far more likely.

You only need EA Sports, A few first party games, and a few exclusive 3rd party games to launch a system with. It doesn't need 30 games at launch.

 

[TheOddOne]

Software support matters, and given MS dependence on third-party software providers there's no way they'll have enough product to launch before 2013.

Even if there are first-gen devkits in the wild right now I still can't see them being ready to launch within 12 months. 18 months is a push, 24 far more likely.

I don't think MS is just sitting around, procrastinating and doing everything at the last minute.

Microsoft Vancouver is building a "core'' game, Turn10 is hiring for new experiences for next generation, 343 Industries plays a big role in moving and evolving the Halo Franchise, Kudo's Next Gen team is working on something, we have yet to hear what Good Science since the launch of the Kinect Fun Labs and MS is building/staffing up on what the call the "core" publishing team. Their publishing department has always been key to their "core" experiences, look at Gears of War, Crackdown, Project Gotham Racing and to lesser extent the first Mass Effect.

Seems that all signs to focus on the next gen. Their internal development is getting some movement, not enough in my opinion, but its a sure sign that they are trying to bolster up their lineup.

 

[dragonelite]

You only need EA Sports, A few first party games, and a few exclusive 3rd party games to launch a system with. It doesn't need 30 games at launch.

Put in code use 2 lod level higher then this gen and increase resolution.
Call it a day seems normal when i see launch titles.

/serious or not

 

[specialguy]

I wish I kept history of such things, but I've seen them miss the mark by over $100 in past examples.



They absolutely are. Without a doubt. Think logically and consider Balmer's vision.



Twilight Princess.



PS2 is still selling.

They absolutely are not. Without a doubt. Think logically.

It's funny you linked some of the typically awfully wrong Xbox rumors GAF has jumped on, as proof of anything. To me they're proof that the rumor of the moment means nothing, For example, your Hardocp link:

It is highly likely that Microsoft's 3rd generation Xbox will be sporting a new IBM cell processor as well

There aren't enough LOL's for that one. Though [H] retracted it literally like a day later in favor of a claim that NextBox will be based on a AMD Fusion CPU/GPU combo, almost as dubious but anyway.


And it's not Xbox related but:

Looking towards the Sony PS4, we hear it is still unsettled between some kind of Bulldozer (would most likely be an APU) variant and a newer updated 32nm IBM cell processor

LOL on the Bulldozer thing, because a few weeks later Bulldozer came out and happened to suck. Bulldozer would probably be about the worst CPU imaginable for a console given it's performance/heat/inefficiency/large die size issues. Cell is equally unlikely for PS4 but I wont get into all that. The point is those Hardocp rumors look like they were flinging poo at a wall.

The main thing is software, if next box was truly in line for 12, we'd have to know about some games by now. No huge third parties are going to keep anything that secret. You'd literally probably have to have the next annual COD, next annual AC, all that stuff coming out for it, and it would all have to be deep in development and huge development teams right now, which means it would leak. Look at the Wii U for an example of the type of software info we'd have for a machine coming in 2012.

As for Twilight Princess, you 2012 guys seems so fixated on that idea with Halo 4 because it's the only way this could possibly work, in other words you're bending over backwards to make explanations for things that are exceedingly unlikely. I'll just say Frankie recently stated on GAF Halo 4 is for 360. Twilight Princess is a complete anomaly because the Wii was just an OCed GC, so it made porting it no issue at all. 720 is not going to be an overclocked 360, so now you have huge, huge development effort.

The whole bboydubc thing always seemed stupid to me too. He's a random guy on a message board, period. Why would anything he says be taken as even as credible as something posted on a two bit website, let alone as gospel? Anyways, that post you linked claimed the Xbox would use a trinity APU, yet this rumors in this OP state a dual GPU and hex core CPU. So one of them is wrong. Yet again. Also, the likelyhood of their being an AMD (or Intel) CPU in nextbox is slim imo, though not impossible. Also, he did not state which console. We know Wii U uses an IBM CPU so that's out, but it could well be PS4 for that matter, not that I think he's credible at this point.

So basically, you threw up a bunch of wrong or almost certainly wrong, speculation and rumors, that often directly conflict with each other, that proves what again?

The path of least resistance is an IBM CPU and an AMD GPU, for many very strong reasons including financial ones, possibly even licensing issues, and backwards compatibility, and that's what I'd expect. I have begun to believe an X86 CPU isn't even possible in a console, more or less, never mind desirable. I have heard AMD's X86 license doesn't allow them to be in a console (CPU), and Intel wont license out their IP so that's a non starter (Reason OG Xbox lost so much money).

PS2 is still selling, but the 360 price is still way too high imo. We'll need at least one more drop before I feel we're in any way "ready" for next gen.

Anyways what can we bet?

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

Microsoft Vancouver is building a "core'' game, Turn10 is hiring for new experiences for next generation, 343 Industries plays a big role in moving and evolving the Halo Franchise, Kudo's Next Gen team is working on something, we have yet to hear what Good Science since the launch of the Kinect Fun Labs and MS is building/staffing up on what the call the "core" publishing team. Their publishing department has always been key to their "core" experiences, look at Gears of War, Crackdown, Project Gotham Racing and to lesser extent the first Mass Effect.

Seems that all signs to focus on the next gen. Their internal development is getting some movement, not enough in my opinion, but its a sure sign that they are trying to bolster up their lineup.

Actually, there's nothing suggesting that all of those (except for maybe Turn 10 and "Kudo's Next Gen team" which I've not even heard of) are working exclusively on next gen software, and not, for instance, the third wave of Kinect games.

2012 is highly unlikely, although not impossible. However, if I absolutely had to choose, business logic tells me 2013.

 

[specialguy]

2012 is highly unlikely, although not impossible. However, if I absolutely had to choose, business logic tells me 2013.

That is my guess as well. I just hope it doesn't end up even later than 2013 because I am so ready for next gen.

The problem is in videogames the delay always happens. Especially when you're dealing with hardware. So if they aim for 2013, I half expect 2014.

 

[charlequin]

Yep because the numbers you pull out your ass are 100% more accurate.

Well, the problem with these BOMs is that they frequently overestimate the cost of unusual or cutting-edge components, while leaving out altogether (and thereby massively underestimating) the manufacturing costs of putting together those components, the unit losses due to QA, etc. They've got some value in establishing

Software support matters, and given MS dependence on third-party software providers there's no way they'll have enough product to launch before 2013.

Even if there are first-gen devkits in the wild right now I still can't see them being ready to launch within 12 months. 18 months is a push, 24 far more likely.

This is my biggest problem with the 2012 theory. Where's the software coming from? Almost every major franchise is tied up, and none of them are going to target 720 with a special extra-fancy edition when they're all already targeting three (or four if they add WiiU) closely-equivalent platforms.

People are suggesting they TP Halo 4 and my reaction is... seriously? You think Microsoft is going to promote their new, fancy, core-oriented console with an uprezzed last-gen game?

 

[[Nintex]]

Look at the Wii U for an example of the type of software info we'd have for a machine coming in 2012.

We know about as much about the Wii U as we do about the Xbox Ten lol.

 

[StevieP]

They absolutely are not. Without a doubt. Think logically.

And it's not Xbox related but:

LOL on the Bulldozer thing, because a few weeks later Bulldozer came out and happened to suck. Bulldozer would probably be about the worst CPU imaginable for a console given it's performance/heat/inefficiency/large die size issues. Cell is equally unlikely for PS4 but I wont get into all that. The point is those Hardocp rumors look like they were flinging poo at a wall.

The HardOCP don't generally make shit up, but my point was that where there's smoke there's fire. BBoyDubC works for AMD (confirmed), and nearly broke an NDA to post on GAF telling us he's working on a CPU for a "next gen console" back in March of this year. Now, it may be coincidence that he posted that in a Microsoft thread, but my entire point was that Microsoft, in my opinion, *is* at least _planning_ a 2012 release. Whether they make it or not, different story. But the intent is there.

The main thing is software, if next box was truly in line for 12, we'd have to know about some games by now. No huge third parties are going to keep anything that secret. You'd literally probably have to have the next annual COD, next annual AC, all that stuff coming out for it, and it would all have to be deep in development and huge development teams right now, which means it would leak. Look at the Wii U for an example of the type of software info we'd have for a machine coming in 2012.

Look at every product launch in recent history.

As for Twilight Princess, you 2012 guys seems so fixated on that idea with Halo 4 because it's the only way this could possibly work, in other words you're bending over backwards to make explanations for things that are exceedingly unlikely. I'll just say Frankie recently stated on GAF Halo 4 is for 360. Twilight Princess is a complete anomaly because the Wii was just an OCed GC, so it made porting it no issue at all. 720 is not going to be an overclocked 360, so now you have huge, huge development effort.

That's right, you do have a huge development effort. Or, if the 720 is using an IBM CPU and AMD GPU - you don't.

The whole bboydubc thing always seemed stupid to me too. He's a random guy on a message board, period. Why would anything he says be taken as even as credible as something posted on a two bit website, let alone as gospel? Anyways, that post you linked claimed the Xbox would use a trinity APU, yet this rumors in this OP state a dual GPU and hex core CPU. So one of them is wrong. Yet again. Also, the likelyhood of their being an AMD (or Intel) CPU in nextbox is slim imo, though not impossible. Also, he did not state which console. We know Wii U uses an IBM CPU so that's out, but it could well be PS4 for that matter, not that I think he's credible at this point.

So basically, you threw up a bunch of wrong or almost certainly wrong, speculation and rumors, that often directly conflict with each other, that proves what again?

The path of least resistance is an IBM CPU and an AMD GPU, for many very strong reasons including financial ones, possibly even licensing issues, and backwards compatibility, and that's what I'd expect. I have begun to believe an X86 CPU isn't even possible in a console, more or less, never mind desirable. I have heard AMD's X86 license doesn't allow them to be in a console (CPU), and Intel wont license out their IP so that's a non starter (Reason OG Xbox lost so much money).

BBoyDubC is credible. Whether his AMD CPU/APU ends up in a console or not will be up for debate until next year... but if he said he's working on a next gen console for release in 2012 there is little reason to doubt him.

What can we bet? I don't do account bets, but I'll gladly buy you a game if I'm wrong and Microsoft's next gen console isn't up for release in 2012.

 

[Clear]

Seems that all signs to focus on the next gen. Their internal development is getting some movement, not enough in my opinion, but its a sure sign that they are trying to bolster up their lineup.

I'm not saying they are doing nothing, Im just saying that its going to take longer than you think for them to be ready to launch. Third parties even more so as they will have a full slate of 2012 releases in production as we speak.

Consider how slow the roll-out has been for all the Kinect experiences they promised, and bear in mind they can ill afford to abandon the momentum that 360 is enjoying. Even if the support is as simple as offering enhanced versions of existing titles (WiiU style) its a non-trivial task as they need to ensure that the enhancements clearly communicate that the new box is significantly better in order to justify the upgrade.

 

[TheOddOne]

Actually, there's nothing suggesting that all of those (except for maybe Turn 10 and "Kudo's Next Gen team" which I've not even heard of) are working exclusively on next gen software, and not, for instance, the third wave of Kinect games.

2012 is highly unlikely, although not impossible. However, if I absolutely had to choose, business logic tells me 2013.

The Kudo Next Gen Team was mentioned by element in this post. I think it was something he wasn't suppose to mention

The Turn10 positions have been filled, all mentioning working on further Microsoft consoles.

I'm not saying they are doing nothing, Im just saying that its going to take longer than you think for them to be ready to launch. Third parties even more so as they will have a full slate of 2012 releases in production as we speak.

Consider how slow the roll-out has been for all the Kinect experiences they promised, and bear in mind they can ill afford to abandon the momentum that 360 is enjoying. Even if the support is as simple as offering enhanced versions of existing titles (WiiU style) its a non-trivial task as they need to ensure that the enhancements clearly communicate that the new box is significantly better in order to justify the upgrade.

Good point and I totally agree. I took you're comment out of context, so my bad

 

[iamshadowlark]

Well, the problem with these BOMs is that they frequently overestimate the cost of unusual or cutting-edge components, while leaving out altogether (and thereby massively underestimating) the manufacturing costs of putting together those components, the unit losses due to QA, etc. They've got some value in establishing

Well I never said they were gospel. They just provide the best picture that we can get without getting a contracting job at sony.They very well are approximations, but still they get data straight from the source.

 

[specialguy]

We know about as much about the Wii U as we do about the Xbox Ten lol.

We know about the tablet controllers, we saw it in rudimentary form at E3 six months ago, we had a press release announcing it, we had PR from IBM and AMD on the CPU/GPU, we had that Ubisoft Killer Freaks and a Zelda protype shown and a tech demo, we've had other game announcements, we have a better idea of the final tech specs (though, not a final idea).

It's night and day.

 

[MDX]

There are rumors that the new xbox will have "a 'main' processor with multiple dedicated assistive cores for graphics, AI, physics, sound, networking, encryption and sensors."

Question, regardless of the merit of the rumor, does having dedicated cores for things like A.I., physics, etc. have any significant benefits over a standard multi-core system?

 

[StevieP]

There are rumors that the new xbox will have "a 'main' processor with multiple dedicated assistive cores for graphics, AI, physics, sound, networking, encryption and sensors."

Question, regardless of the merit of the rumor, does having dedicated cores for things like A.I., physics, etc. have any significant benefits over a standard multi-core system?

In general, no. See: cell. It's the same main CPU as the 360, and the SPUs on Cell are far less effecient to work with than 2 additional cores on the 360.

 

[[Nintex]]

This is my biggest problem with the 2012 theory. Where's the software coming from? Almost every major franchise is tied up, and none of them are going to target 720 with a special extra-fancy edition when they're all already targeting three (or four if they add WiiU) closely-equivalent platforms.

The MGS Vancouver Kinect title that has been moved to the next platform.

Criterion has a next-gen team in place:
http://www.vg247.com/2011/08/05/criterion-hirings-hint-at-new-racer-possibly-next-gen/
and so do Visceral and Crytek. I believe rumors about Crytek started the Xbox Ten ball rolling stating DirectX 11 technology would be its core:
http://www.videogamer.com/news/xbox_720_likely_at_e3_2012_crytek_on_board_2.html
Right now Rare has jobs searching for people who know a thing or two about DirectX 11 rendering:
http://www.microsoft-careers.com/jo...ampaign=IEB_Rare_Principal_Rendering_Engineer

Understand, assess and be capable of implementing real-time rendering techniques made possible by DirectX 11.

Treyarch does to:
http://www.gamespot.com/xbox360/act...53/next-gen-call-of-duty-in-works-at-treyarch

In addition to those it is believed that Ubisoft will use a new engine for Assassins Creed III. Just like when we moved from Xbox to Xbox 360 we'll start out with a bunch of ports and cross platform releases in addition to a few key Xbox Ten titles, like the MGS Vancouver game, and likely Forza World:
http://www.playground-games.com/index.php
Click on the names of the people working there, basically a whole bunch of former Codemasters and Bizarre Creations guys with even a Rare dude mixed in. They're about to expand with some contract positions to Guildford as well.

Another studio that could develop a launch game is Ruffian Games. I don't think there's any issue with getting software support for this thing. The biggest headache is probably TSMC

 

[specialguy]

That's right, you do have a huge development effort. Or, if the 720 is using an IBM CPU and AMD GPU - you don't.

You still do because the assets are the key thing here. Just like most PC games dont take advantage of the PC might because, it's expensive to do so, they just port console assets over. 360 and 720 would not be able to share assets, not if you want the 720 version to be "next gen".

The HardOCP don't generally make shit up, but my point was that where there's smoke there's fire. BBoyDubC works for AMD (confirmed), and nearly broke an NDA to post on GAF telling us he's working on a CPU for a "next gen console" back in March of this year. Now, it may be coincidence that he posted that in a Microsoft thread, but my entire point was that Microsoft, in my opinion, *is* at least _planning_ a 2012 release. Whether they make it or not, different story. But the intent is there.

H may not "make shit up" but I think they were irresponsible here. Looks like they just got an anonymous email or something and ran with it. Anyways they know very little about the console market or they would have realized their rumors were implausible. I wouldn't put much stock in it at all. They post several minor stories daily pretty much if I'm not mistaken.

BBoyDubC is credible. Whether his AMD CPU/APU ends up in a console or not will be up for debate until next year... but if he said he's working on a next gen console for release in 2012 there is little reason to doubt him.

Well in evaluating these rumors I can contrast them with my knowledge for how likely they are, whether Bboy is credible or not I find what he's proposing unlikely, specifically towards a next gen Xbox. I dont say his word means nothing, like most of these rumors I'd say it's best to file it away on an evidence pile somewhere and see if a trend emerges or corroborating info emerges later, but not to make much of it in a vacuum. Sort of the like the whole MS nerd thing. I have a feeling when "real" next gen info emerges, almost all of these rumors will be false, and most people wont even remember them.

I do feel like the rumors that head this thread are more plausible. Because they add up to a more beefy machine without any wild deviations from what I would expect. Hex core CPU certainly sounds plausible, even likely. The one thing that seems ludicrous is the dual GPU idea, but perhaps it has a good explanation that will be revealed later. One possibility I've been touting is that it's dual GPU in current dev kits, to approximate a planned future GPU thats more powerful than anything available today. That could be wishful thinking, though.

What can we bet? I don't do account bets, but I'll gladly buy you a game if I'm wrong and Microsoft's next gen console isn't up for release in 2012.

Very nice. I'd agree to that. I almost feel bad about it tho as I just feel theres no way I can be wrong here. An idea would be a $50 Amazon gift code? (Can be anonymous, easy to transfer via PM or email, and basically the price of one game)

 

[specialguy]

Oh, and I completely forgot but I'll make it a new post, do you guys realize we had fairly final, extremely detailed, xbox 360 schematics/spec sheets leaked in February of 2004?

That would mean for Xbox next to be on the same timeline, we'd have gotten those leaks in Jan-Feb of this year. We're literally a year off the necessary timeline.

 

[Chittagong]

This is my biggest problem with the 2012 theory. Where's the software coming from? Almost every major franchise is tied up, and none of them are going to target 720 with a special extra-fancy edition when they're all already targeting three (or four if they add WiiU) closely-equivalent platforms.

I know some pretty high profile developers who have been working on next gen stuff for a while already. Probably year two/three stuff. I believe year one will be mainly upgrades from current gen multiplat games and a handful of MGS exclusives, just like with 360.

 

[Proelite]

Any publisher who gets a hand on the dev-kits will probably spend maximum resources at prototyping a next gen ip right now. They want their new franchise to be the next Gears or Modern Warfare. Having a early hit franchise on a next generation system is absolutely crucial to how well the publisher will do for the generation. I am of the opinion that studios will be transitioning the majority of their best talents to next generation development fairly soon, like Square-Enix did.

We'll be seeing some amazing third-party games on next generation systems fairly soon given enough development time. If Chittagong is right, we will see them even if it's a 2012 launch.

If if there is a good time to kill COD and Activision it's at the beginning of a new generation.

 

[Raistlin]

I agree. The second reason is because of the Cell.

Merill's analysts thought a BD-ROM drive would have a $100 BOM after 3 years?

heh

In general, no. See: cell. It's the same main CPU as the 360, and the SPUs on Cell are far less effecient to work with than 2 additional cores on the 360.

Explain what you mean here. Do you mean in terms of programming? Because efficiency has a connotation that should be avoided if that's what you're arguing. The SPE's were anything but inefficient in terms of performance.

Regardless, what MDX is describing really isn't CELL. Having "dedicated cores for things like A.I., physics, etc" implies they are somehow tailored for those purposes. CELL's SPE's, while paired down from a traditional processor, are still a general purpose (though in-order) processors.

 

[[Nintex]]

Luckily OXM is always off by 6 months with their predictions so CES seems like a lock now

"A slimmer, redesigned 360 to be revealed at E3? Don’t bet on it until the fall, when it’s part of the Project Natal rollout."

 

[charlequin]

Criterion has a next-gen team in place:
and so do Visceral and Crytek.
Right now Rare has jobs searching for people who know a thing or two about DirectX 11 rendering:
Treyarch does to:

But these are all for titles aimed at 2013. That's kind of my point: we already have tons of software announced for 2012, generally with firm platforms attached to it; then we have software vaguely aimed at 2013, much of it with platforms left indeterminate; and then we have a bunch of "next-gen development" projects that are staffing up now, which points to software releases 18-24 months out.

There's nobody in position to deliver high-profile launch titles. I know that in general the launch window of a system is subpar, but you need something in place to actually drive acquisition. Microsoft have punted on that themselves (Halo would be the obvious choice, yet they clearly made a decisive choice to leave that on 360) and there's not much evidence of third-parties available to fill the gap.

In addition to those it is believed that Ubisoft will use a new engine for Assassins Creed III.

Ubi has been crystal-clear on AC3 being a current-gen-only title and their debut on next-gen systems being the start of a new storyline.

 

[StevieP]

You still do because the assets are the key thing here. Just like most PC games dont take advantage of the PC might because, it's expensive to do so, they just port console assets over. 360 and 720 would not be able to share assets, not if you want the 720 version to be "next gen".

The shitty-looking Call of Duty games look leagues better on PC at 1080p with all the settings maxed. Same assets, look much much better.

H may not "make shit up" but I think they were irresponsible here. Looks like they just got an anonymous email or something and ran with it. Anyways they know very little about the console market or they would have realized their rumors were implausible. I wouldn't put much stock in it at all. They post several minor stories daily pretty much if I'm not mistaken.

H doesn't post anonymous emails, though.

Well in evaluating these rumors I can contrast them with my knowledge for how likely they are, whether Bboy is credible or not I find what he's proposing unlikely, specifically towards a next gen Xbox. I dont say his word means nothing, like most of these rumors I'd say it's best to file it away on an evidence pile somewhere and see if a trend emerges or corroborating info emerges later, but not to make much of it in a vacuum. Sort of the like the whole MS nerd thing. I have a feeling when "real" next gen info emerges, almost all of these rumors will be false, and most people wont even remember them.

All I'm saying is "where there's smoke, there's fire" - and there is a hell of a lot of smoke in the air right now. There has been since March.

I do feel like the rumors that head this thread are more plausible. Because they add up to a more beefy machine without any wild deviations from what I would expect. Hex core CPU certainly sounds plausible, even likely. The one thing that seems ludicrous is the dual GPU idea, but perhaps it has a good explanation that will be revealed later. One possibility I've been touting is that it's dual GPU in current dev kits, to approximate a planned future GPU thats more powerful than anything available today. That could be wishful thinking, though.

The rumours (in regards to hardware) in this thread are actually the least plausible of the bunch. Too outlandish, and there is no "magic tech" in the near future that's going to be massively more powerful than what's out there today. Both NV and ATI have clear, defined roadmaps.

Very nice. I'd agree to that. I almost feel bad about it tho as I just feel theres no way I can be wrong here. An idea would be a $50 Amazon gift code? (Can be anonymous, easy to transfer via PM or email, and basically the price of one game)

Don't feel bad. A bet is a bet. Seeing as how I'm in Canada, could I even purchase you an Amazon gift card or you purchase me one? I know Amazon has some weird restrictions on region and I'm not sure if that's one of them. Regardless, I'm down.

Oh, and I completely forgot but I'll make it a new post, do you guys realize we had fairly final, extremely detailed, xbox 360 schematics/spec sheets leaked in February of 2004?

That would mean for Xbox next to be on the same timeline, we'd have gotten those leaks in Jan-Feb of this year. We're literally a year off the necessary timeline.

The final kits for the 360 went out 5 months prior to its release. They were still a disaster... just not as much of a disaster as MS providing G5s with crossfire'd ATI cards in their previous kits.

Explain what you mean here.

Simply that extracting results out of the SPEs in the Cell is far more tedious and difficult than extracting results out of dedicated cores.

PS Evillore... this multi-quote thing is f'n awesome.

 

[[Nintex]]

Ubi has been crystal-clear on AC3 being a current-gen-only title and their debut on next-gen systems being the start of a new storyline.

It was Blimblim who mentioned it I think and he's well informed about Ubisoft.

 

[Proelite]

The rumours (in regards to hardware) in this thread are actually the least plausible of the bunch. Too outlandish, and there is no "magic tech" in the near future that's going to be massively more powerful than what's out there today. Both NV and ATI have clear, defined roadmaps.

I think people were hopeful that there will be solutions in the near future that makes console graphics cards competitive with the high end cards of today such as 6970 and up. With the different nature of highly integrated console graphics it is a mistake to write off that as an impossibility. In addition, console GPUs, at least by MS, requires a huge R&D investment and falls outside of AMD's pc roadmaps.

In regard to the rumours, I don't see original in the op as being too outlandish. It might just be the specs of a devkit. B3d have gone over it already and out of all the rumours about the specs, these holds up the best.

 

[Nirolak]

In addition to those it is believed that Ubisoft will use a new engine for Assassins Creed III.

Ubi has been crystal-clear on AC3 being a current-gen-only title and their debut on next-gen systems being the start of a new storyline.

Both of these can actually be true.

Battlefield 3 is running on an engine designed for next-gen consoles despite being current gen only.

 

[iamshadowlark]

Simply that extracting results out of the SPEs in the Cell is far more tedious and difficult than extracting results out of dedicated cores.

PS Evillore... this multi-quote thing is f'n awesome.

Yeah thats not true at all. The only thing that gets tedious is any kind of logical operation. For raw performance its quite easy to produce results and this comes from someone who has just two years of programming experience in this field.

 

[Luckyman]

The MGS Vancouver Kinect title that has been moved to the next platform.

Criterion has a next-gen team in place:
http://www.vg247.com/2011/08/05/criterion-hirings-hint-at-new-racer-possibly-next-gen/
and so do Visceral and Crytek. I believe rumors about Crytek started the Xbox Ten ball rolling stating DirectX 11 technology would be its core:
http://www.videogamer.com/news/xbox_720_likely_at_e3_2012_crytek_on_board_2.html
Right now Rare has jobs searching for people who know a thing or two about DirectX 11 rendering:
http://www.microsoft-careers.com/jo... There is zero things going for a 2012 launch