Wii U Speculation Thread 2: Can't take anymore of this!!!
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ShellyDeKiller
Member
Which is why I see more revivals occurring in the launch window that well known first party IPs.
Less Mario and Zelda, more F-Zero and Pikmin.
Super Smash Bro
Banned
Pikmin 3 is a great candidate for launch title: beloved, critically acclaimed series; subject matter ideal for showing off graphical prowess; has been in development for years; game pretty suited for Upad control gimmicks; and the series is not a huge system selling behemoth that is going to take the air out of the room for third parties.
I will be very surprised if Pikmin 3 misses launch.
I will be very surprised if Pikmin 3 misses launch.
AceBandage
Banned
So Driver U.
blu
Wants the largest console games publisher to avoid Nintendo's platforms.
P4 was an extreme case of clock-chasing. To the extent its performance/power ratio went down the drain (performance scales linearly with clock, while power-draw - exponentially). We are not looking at that with Power7 - it has both the clock *and* the wide-issue, out-of-order capabilities, while staying at sane power-draw levels. It still can reach higher clocks than 476, which allows the same amount of work to be done by fewer cores. Yes, numerous 476s doing the same work would have the overall power efficiency advantage (which is very important for supercomputers with gazillions of cores), but extracting from them the same performance as from the fewer-but-faster cores is a non-trivial task. We're not dealing with GPUs threads here - these are old-fashioned human sweat-n-tears CPU threads we're talking of.
Generally speaking, high clocks are not bad per se - it's the sacrifices and the sheer power-draw cost (and associates TDP, etc) which take balancing. Let's take Xenon - a clocky CPU with massive vector units. Its metric ton of high clocked ALUs is a factor to be reckoned with. It does nothing for the general-purpose computing case (where massively super-scalar, OOE cores are kings), but it's not a general-purpose CPU to boot. Or at least not as general-purpose are your notebook's Core-based CPU. Of course, Cell still makes Xenon look ordinary.
Sure, IPC is one metric. FLOPs is another. Xenon's strength is not so much with the former - it's with the latter, while still managing to be an 'ordinary design' CPU. Problem is, how much effort it takes to get some FLOPs out of the CPU when you need some (it just happens so that games occasionally need some close at hand). Cell used to make all this look easy - you just get a portion of those SPUs to work at your pressing task. Well, turned out it was not so trivial. Massive amount of R&D went into engines capable of scaling work with numbers of SPUs, more so than with Xenos threads. Some devs succeeded, others - not so much (hey, not everybody can be DICE). An old-fashion, high performing single core is still the easiest way to get a job done. Core multiplicity is here not because we like it, but because we face roadblocks with the performance of a single core. Well, Power7 is the cream-of-the-crop of single-cores performance.
There's nothing wrong with your understanding, it's just that I think the balance nintendo will seek will lean them more toward higher performance cores than twice as many, lower-clock cores (both options subject to pricing, of course). There's another factor - nintendo cannot afford to underperform at the single-thread level compared to Xenon. Which means they need that metric ton of clocky ALUs. A Power7 core has them, a 476 core - not so much.
Basically, the cost metric we need here (disregarding most of what we talked about in the earlier paragraphs), is how many 476 cores at half the clock of Power7 (which is roughly how the two designs fare at the same process) will match latter's single core performance. While 476 has the cumulative power-draw advantage, I don't expect it to have such in the silicon area. Just like you, though, I don't have hard data on that.
Dreamwriter
Member
That is why it isn't a good candidate for a launch title. Nintendo has learned that they need as many "huge system selling behmonth titles" as they can get at launch. With the 3DS they tried to be nice to third parties that way, and it almost killed the system.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Sure they do, though sometimes they end up becoming full releases. Wii MotorSports comes to mind. The original DS Steel Diver. 100 Marios back on GameCube.
Nor is it like NSMB Mii was something they developed from scratch; it seemed to be a few new NSMB Mii levels at higher resolution and with Mii heads. 2D Mario coming to Wii U? No doubt. In that form necessarily? Doubt.
Except I made it 50% longer.
I really do hope that third parties come out swinging for Wii U. I wonder, did most Wii owners stick with a combination of platforms this gen (ex. Wii/PC/3ds)? Maybe with the Wii U having to own the other systems will become less of a priority. The first party capabilities of Nintendo and the third party support of the 360 (maybe to a lesser extent) gives the Wii U so much potential. It makes me consider going with a WiiU/3ds/PC combo next gen.
DragonKnight
Member
Couple that with a fully realized online infrastructure and a controller that can truly allow for new and better ways to game and you hit the nail on the head. Problem is though that until E3 all of this is just one big maybe.
-Pyromaniac-
Member
I don't know if Nintendo will have a BIG game like a Mario on launch day, but you better believe they'll have one very close to launch. Momentum is everything.
I think in terms of first party stuff the launch line-up will consist of:
Wii U Play (Probably a pack in game that compiles the demos from E3, possibly under a different and new title though)
Yoshi's Island (I think Good Feel are pretty much due a new game this year, and this'd be the perfect game for them, 3DS line-up for 2012 is big enough as it is, so I think they're making a launch game)
Pikmin 3 (This has been in development for years, so it goes without saying. I actually think it might be developed by EAD Tokyo 1, simply because the timeline would fit. At the end of 2007, EAD Tokyo split in 2 when SMG was finished, one team (probably a bigger one) starts work on SMG 2 while the smaller one starts work on Pikmin 3, at E3 2008 Miyamoto confirms they're making it, but it's very early. Nothing ready in 2009 as most of EAD Tokyo is working on SMG 2. In 2010 we hear that they could have shown it but decided against it because of how much other stuff they showed, at this point I think they intended for it to be a Wii game released in 2011. But at E3 2011 we hear it's moved to Wii U, I would guess this decision was reached late 2010/early 2011. That's my theory anyway).
These three games would make for a great launch because that way the traditional Nintendo fans will pick it up for Yoshi's Island and Pikmin 3, while some of the Wii Sports audience would be tempted by Wii U Play. Launch I think will be worldwide in November and December this year, like the Wii. In terms of Launch window games (let's just say until Q2 2013) Nintendo could release Retro's game, Wii U Sports or Fit, a Monster Games game (my guess is something like Wave Race or 1080, or Diddy Kong Racing?), Monolith's game (which could be at launch in Japan), WarioWare, an Nd Cube party game and another Project M Metroid. Obviously they wouldn't release all of this within 3 months, but I think in theory they could have each one ready by that time.
Let's not forget that launch could be supported by 3rd party stuff like RE 6, Ninja Gaiden 3, COD etc. and that there are multiple 3rd party exclusives lined up, like Rabbids, that Ubisoft sports game, Killer Freaks, THQ's supposedly exclusive game, Sonic Dimensions, and my personal prediction of Scribblenauts Wii U (which is also my guess for the Wii U/3DS game Paul Gale has talked about).
Wii U Play (Probably a pack in game that compiles the demos from E3, possibly under a different and new title though)
Yoshi's Island (I think Good Feel are pretty much due a new game this year, and this'd be the perfect game for them, 3DS line-up for 2012 is big enough as it is, so I think they're making a launch game)
Pikmin 3 (This has been in development for years, so it goes without saying. I actually think it might be developed by EAD Tokyo 1, simply because the timeline would fit. At the end of 2007, EAD Tokyo split in 2 when SMG was finished, one team (probably a bigger one) starts work on SMG 2 while the smaller one starts work on Pikmin 3, at E3 2008 Miyamoto confirms they're making it, but it's very early. Nothing ready in 2009 as most of EAD Tokyo is working on SMG 2. In 2010 we hear that they could have shown it but decided against it because of how much other stuff they showed, at this point I think they intended for it to be a Wii game released in 2011. But at E3 2011 we hear it's moved to Wii U, I would guess this decision was reached late 2010/early 2011. That's my theory anyway).
These three games would make for a great launch because that way the traditional Nintendo fans will pick it up for Yoshi's Island and Pikmin 3, while some of the Wii Sports audience would be tempted by Wii U Play. Launch I think will be worldwide in November and December this year, like the Wii. In terms of Launch window games (let's just say until Q2 2013) Nintendo could release Retro's game, Wii U Sports or Fit, a Monster Games game (my guess is something like Wave Race or 1080, or Diddy Kong Racing?), Monolith's game (which could be at launch in Japan), WarioWare, an Nd Cube party game and another Project M Metroid. Obviously they wouldn't release all of this within 3 months, but I think in theory they could have each one ready by that time.
Let's not forget that launch could be supported by 3rd party stuff like RE 6, Ninja Gaiden 3, COD etc. and that there are multiple 3rd party exclusives lined up, like Rabbids, that Ubisoft sports game, Killer Freaks, THQ's supposedly exclusive game, Sonic Dimensions, and my personal prediction of Scribblenauts Wii U (which is also my guess for the Wii U/3DS game Paul Gale has talked about).
AceBandage
Banned
Within the first 6 months yeah.
-Pyromaniac-
Member
Within 6 is a definite, but I mean within 3-4 max. 3rd parties + pikmin just won't cut it I would think. Depends if they want this thing flying out the gate, or they are fine with it jogging out until their big game comes out.
DragonKnight
Member
Mario galaxy 3 please coupled with 1+2 in HD as a pre-order bonus on disk. Is that too much to ask? Has any one brain storm ways to play mario with this new controller? I like how the wiis controls were minimized but the game still felt fresh.
AceBandage
Banned
They put out Pikmin and Retro's game at launch.
Then a few minor games for the next few months.
Then Mario in the Summer to boost sales big time.
Perfect strategy.
-Pyromaniac-
Member
it is a good strategy but mario + holidays = sales that you simply can't match with any other combination of games.
Chet Rippo
Member
Even if Mario would sell at anytime, they usually save him for the holiday season.
...But, who knows?
AceBandage
Banned
SMG2 came out in May, just an FYI.
DragonKnight
Member
SMG1 AND NSMBWii both came out in the holiday months. I'd say release a lesser known core game during the summer months and save Mario for the holidays. That franchise is an impulse buy and appeals to everyone. Who doesn't want Mario in HD for christmas?
DragonKnight
Member
Double post
AceBandage
Banned
You just... replied to yourself...
DragonKnight
Member
You just... replied to yourself...
Haha yeah. Sorry about that. Meant to quote you.
I kinda doubt they'll have any kind of Mario game ready at launch since those teams just released 3D Land and Mario Kart 7. Plus they're already working on a 2D Mario for the 3DS. I think Retro's title will be a big 1st party launch release, probably accompanied by a Wii series title like a new Wii Sports or something like that. Something to really get families around that new hardware and convince them it's a real upgrade from the Wii.
Then they need to let them see that the big 3rd party games are on the system too. I think Black Ops 2 (what it will probably be called) is a lock for launch or at least Q4. We already know Ubisoft has an Assassin's Creed game planned, and it is likely AC3. EA's usual sports games like Madden and FIFA will have Wii-U versions, and I'm interested in seeing if they actually put some effort into the touch screen controls, which have a lot of potential for team sports games. Like I said before, there's a good chance for RE6 to be there as well.
Then they need to let them see that the big 3rd party games are on the system too. I think Black Ops 2 (what it will probably be called) is a lock for launch or at least Q4. We already know Ubisoft has an Assassin's Creed game planned, and it is likely AC3. EA's usual sports games like Madden and FIFA will have Wii-U versions, and I'm interested in seeing if they actually put some effort into the touch screen controls, which have a lot of potential for team sports games. Like I said before, there's a good chance for RE6 to be there as well.
AceBandage
Banned
I wouldn't put too much stock in this.
That's why I didn't do a new thread for it. He could just have said "No." though.
But this is probably just them still being in NDA because of the Nintendo Ninjas.
disappeared
Banned
The U needs a Mario game at launch. Perhaps this is stating the obvious, but it is the truth. No, I am not talking about some half-baked shit like an HD New Super Mario Bros. or even a port of Super Mario (sans 3D) Land either. Whatever the next logical step is after Galaxy 2; it needs to be that. This habit Nintendo has gotten itself into of delaying key franchises until 8-16 months post-launch is ridiculous. Sure, the longer wait means a better quality game, but that almost goes without saying when discussing Nintendo. The NES, SNES, and N64 all launched with absolutely groundbreaking Mario titles. There was nothing stopping them then, so why the sudden roadblock now? Sunshine hit the Gamecube later in life and you'd think they would have learned their lesson after how plain the game turned out overall. Surely with even more experience under their belts, Miyamoto n' pals know what makes a good Mario title. There really isn't an excuse.
Dreamwriter
Member
...that completely failed for the 3DS, bigtime...
Thunder Monkey
Banned
I quote and reply to myself all the time.
AceBandage
Banned
Completely different.
Steel Diver and Pilotwings aren't exactly what people want.
On the other hand Pikmin and anything Retro puts out would easily sell systems and hit well over a million each.
It would also be launching closer to the holidays with much bigger third party titles.
Yes, because Galaxy, Galaxy 2 and NSMBW are so plain.
I prefer they launch the games when they're ready to be launched instead of rushing them to shift more hardware.
Chet Rippo
Member
I said usually...
Dreamwriter
Member
Don't forget NintenDogs. But those are about the types of games you are saying should launch - a brand new franchise (Retro) and a middling franchise only a few hardcore people have heard of. Nintendo has said that the main reason the 3DS failed was a lack of AAA titles at launch. It got one after 6 months, that was too late. Pikmin isn't AAA.
AceBandage
Banned
Retro's game won't be a new franchise. It'll be something that plenty of people know and love.
As for Pikmin, isn't it a million+ selling franchise?
Either way, it's much more desirable than Steel Diver or Pilot Wings to a larger group of people.
There is just no way it's launching with a Mario game. Especially if one is coming out for the 3DS around the same time.
disappeared
Banned
I never even said that.
Not even in the slightest.
Keep putting words in my mouth bro.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Yep, and sometimes I'll even masturbate while looking into the mirror.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
TheGreatMightyPoo
Banned
Yamauchi must be in the background.
I was going to say this thread reached new levels of crazy.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
That damn monkey was watching me masturbate again wouldn't you be shaken up?
disappeared
Banned
I didn't know Retro had a game for 3DS at launch. Didn't know there was a Pikmin either.
Ace's logic is sound, imo. If you have a couple of big 3rd party games at launch (already looking better than 3DS 3rd party launch games), you don't want to piss 3rd parties off by launching with heavy hitters straight away. Not only is this bad for 3rd parties, it's also bad for Nintendo in the long run. If you get a Retro game out (assuming it isn't Donkey Kong), it will appeal to both Nintendo fans and -to a certain degree- the crowd Nintendo wants to attract again. Launch with Pikmin, which is only hugely anticipated by the avid Nintendo fans, and you pretty much have that base covered, without overpowering 3rd parties testing the water. So you need to strike a nice balance. Make sure your system sells right off the bat, to ensure userbase. Also make sure 3rd party software sells nicely in order to avoid the usual "3rd party games don't sell on Nintendo" crap that sets itself in motion.
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