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[Infinite Justice]

Just because redundancy is fun.

Xbox 360 = 148.9°
PS3 = 119.8°
Wii = 52.3°
Wii U = 39°

That works out to:
Xbox 360 = 261K
PS3 = 210K
Wii = 92K
Wii U = 68K

Done with ImageJ angle measurement tool.

If people care for a second opinion, I can do same for handheld chart.

I think we have a nice min-max range now since Durante and Road had similar numbers, plus yes do a handheld version as another option compared to Durante's

 

[Trent Strong]

Neither its software.

Maybe people don't want a tablet controller. I don't see the point of one, personally.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Time for some SW numbers creamsugar.

He needs to confirm the 245k 3DS number first!

 

[Miles X]

At that rate it seems likely. That rate wont be possible though with ps4 and 360s successor coming out though. It might pull ot off in march 14 though.

The rate at which Wii is falling, it'll do it this year for sure. Even with next gen systems. I mean this isn't even taking into consideration MS plans for 360 this holiday (mini, price cut)

 

[Metallix87]

The tablet controller is too convoluted for the casuals to use.

I disagree. I think, in a world where tablet PCs and smartphones reign supreme, and where users are used to Wii motion controls and a 360 controller, the concept of a tablet game controller isn't too convoluted at all. The missing element is software releases that utilize it in a meaningful way. Nintendo Land and Zombi U are a nice start, but they're simply not enough.

 

[opticalmace]

Maybe people don't want a tablet controller. I don't see the point of one, personally.

I agree. I think it would have been interesting years ago, when touchscreens were generally new and tablets hadn't flooded the market.

Now, it just seems like a high price for a crappy touchscreen.

 

[TheUnknownForce]

Wii U needs a Fall Price Drop to go along with its game releases. The faster Nintendo gets it down to $249, the better. It needs to be at a mass market price while the other consoles hover around $400-500.

Wii U needs games with large appeal that justify ANY price, let alone the current price.

Also, no price drop should happen until the other two announce their prices. If the competition is $500 or higher, Wii U will not drop in price.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

Maybe people don't want a tablet controller. I don't see the point of one, personally.

Well too bad you dont buy it. Thr tablet controller is the least of Wii Us problems.

 

[Petrae]

Armchair analyst problems... WiiU is right on the cusp of that rounding between 65K and 70K with raw figures fluctuating between 67-68K. Going to wait a bit longer to see what you all think before trying to digest this.

Also: As always, thanks to everyone for the extrapolations and data. Your sharing and knowledge adds a lot to my experience and it's a lot of fun talking trends and data with all of you.

 

[Nirolak]

Not in a pie chart please.

Perhaps a radar chart or a graph with a Hamiltonian path.

 

[Various Artists]

Nintendo ha failed man, I understand that they want to save a bunch to talk about at E3 but at that point the hype train is going to be all about PS4 XBOX720. They need sales now

 

[Metallix87]

Maybe people don't want a tablet controller. I don't see the point of one, personally.

You don't have to buy it, though. It comes standard with the Wii U, and most games don't even require you to use touch functionality right now. Whether that's a positive or a negative is debatable, obviously. For all intents and purposes, it's a big controller that let's you play games while on the toilet or while the kids are watching a movie.

 

[donny2112]

Initially, I thought Luigi's Mansion sales were for up to today / last week, but reading the PR better, it seems those 415k could be just March. In the case...holy crap, a 50k digital debut?!?

On the 3DS digital eShop All-Time chart, Luigi's Mansion is #14. FE with 80K digital sales dropped down to #7.

U.S. 3DS All-Time Download-only Sales (until April 18)
Note: Bundled/Ambassador games are not included. Basically just anything you had to click on 'purchase' button to get that at some point in its life cost money.
1. Pokemon Dream Radar
2. Pushmo
3. 3D Classics: Kirby's Adventure
4. 3D Classics: Kid Icarus
5. Colors! 3D
6. Pokedex 3D Pro (the on-going sale probably pushed it over FE)
7. Fire Emblem: Awakening ~80K
8. New Super Mario Bros. 2
9. 3D Classics: Xevious
10. Sakura Samurai: Art of the Sword
11. Bird Mania 3D
12. Mighty Switch Force!
13. Dillon's Rolling Western
14. Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon ~50K
15. 3D Classics: Excitebike
16. VVVVVV
17. Let's Golf! 3D
18. Gunman Clive
19. Mutant Mudds
20. 3D Classics: Urban Champion

 

[ViewtifulJC]

Wasn't this year head start suppose to help Wii-U build some kind of foundation, like the 360 did

 

[Katana_Strikes]

I think I've found a way for Nintendo to increase WiiU sales. They just need to invent a new month that has lots more weeks in it. Voila!!

 

[Portugeezer]

Even if talking revenue, what would be a rough estimation of 3DS sales if all sales were XL?

 

[ambientmystic]

Just because redundancy is fun.

That works out to:
Xbox 360 = 261K
PS3 = 210K
Wii = 92K
Wii U = 68K

Good stuff jvm. Thanks for the corroboration.

 

[shinra-bansho]

So, through area measurement, I got:
360 = 261K
PS3 = 209K
WII = 87K
WIU = 64K

Assuming 3DS = 245K
NDS = 89K
PSV = 32K
PSP = 6K
------
Durante's numbers via pie chart reconstruction:

I got this, using the powers of pie-chart reconstruction:

Wii U	67
Wii	91
PS3	212
X360	261

(Of course, the labeling is unsure)

Again assuming 3DS = 245K
NDS = 91K
PSV = 36K
PSP = 9K
------
jvm's numbers via angle measurement:

Just because redundancy is fun.

Xbox 360 = 148.9°
PS3 = 119.8°
Wii = 52.3°
Wii U = 39°

That works out to:
Xbox 360 = 261K
PS3 = 210K
Wii = 92K
Wii U = 68K

Done with ImageJ angle measurement tool.

I come up with:
Nintendo 3DS = 231.1°
Nintendo DS = 85.9°
PSV = 34.6°
PSP = 8.4°

Under the 245K assumption, we get:
Nintendo 3DS = 245K
Nintendo DS = 91K
PSV = 37K
PSP = 9K

 

[Averon]

Nintendo completely wasted their year head start. Even Sega, in all their fucked up-ness, coming off the 32X/Saturn debacle, nailed the head start with Dreamcast. Xbox 360 also used a year head start to build a great foundation. Wii U is pretty much dead. It may not even hit Gamecube numbers and the third party support and game droughts will get worse and worse.

Yeah. This is the most incredible thing for me. This one year head start was so crucial for Nintendo to establish the Wii U in the market place before the next-gen deluge of the PS4/720 will drown them out, but Nintendo squandered it in spectacular fashion. This shows a severe lack of foresight and planning. Gross incompetence all around.

 

[A Human Becoming]

I think I've found a way for Nintendo to increase WiiU sales. They just need to invent a new month that has lots more weeks in it. Voila!!

There's always Smarch!

 

[AZ Greg]

Also, games. E3 needs to be a thunder clap from the mountains tops in terms of killer software from Nintendo on Wii U.

Agreed, but it is going to take a lot more than "Mario Kart™, Super Mario Bros.™ and Super Smash Bros.™ franchises". Let's hope Nintendo has more than that up their sleeves.

 

[Metallix87]

Wasn't this year head start suppose to help Wii-U build some kind of foundation, like the 360 did

In the long run, I'm sure it will have helped both build a nice foundation, and also given them time to iron out OS problems and also set up a better release schedule moving forward.

 

[Y2Kev]

Smarch, rofl.

 

[jvm]

I come up with:
Nintendo 3DS = 231.1°
Nintendo DS = 85.9°
PSV = 34.6°
PSP = 8.4°

Under the 245K assumption, we get:
Nintendo 3DS = 245K
Nintendo DS = 91K
PSV = 37K
PSP = 9K

Note to self: ImageJ always gives an angle under 180° apparently. That threw me when the original angles I got came out to under 360°...

 

[TheNatural]

I fear for Nintendo's future. It's going to be barren now until holidays as far as impact games go, and even in the holidays, what then?

Lets say Nintendo's dream scenario lineup takes place and they get out both a 3D Mario Galaxy successor, a new Mario Kart, and several companion games like Yoshi Yarn and Wind Waker HD - then what? They'll be competing with PS3 and 360, who still very much have life in them because they haven't even hit a sub $200 budget point, and the launch of two next gen systems. That's a lot of fucking competition.

And lets say despite all that, Wii U has a really good holiday. I think an original Wii type holiday is pie in the sky, but lets say it even does that somehow. What then? You just burned several bullets in the chamber to have a good holiday to cover for a year of completely horrible sales. And then you go back to not having a ton on the horizon and people waiting for Smash Bros and you have several less 'wait until' games.

It's just a dire situation. Next week their investors meeting is going to be really interesting.

 

[kinggroin]

I predict another massive price cut ($225 WiiU basic/$275 deluxe) followed by another Ambassador program for us early adopters.

Iwata really needs to step down. I like Iwata as a person but he is simply doing everything either wrong or too slowly and he has been now for 5 years.

The WiiU hardware power, 3rd party support, online services, regularly providing good 1st party games for the WiiU: he has failed miserably on all counts. I don't know what other evidence they need. He doesn't have a grasp of the current market and he hasn't built any relationships with western studios, in fact it seems he has driven them further away.

WiiU should have been "Wii 2". Instead of the gamepad they should have put that money into making it have genuine next gen power (or approaching it) with a standard 10 button dual analog controller (like the WiiU Pro Controller) that also supported Wiimote+.

This is two terrible hardware launches in a row but the WiiU has the bigger problems than the 3DS. Japan won't save them and they have bigger competitors in home consoles.

They will probably give him another E3 where Nintendo will probably give another underwhelming presentation with a few scattered cheers for Smash 4 and Mario Galaxy 3 (or whatever its called) while they spend more than half their time on shit nobody wants like Wii Party U and Wii Fit U.

@ bolded, C'mon man.

As if the Wii had any substantial momentum to build off of leading into the Wii U.

Nintendo let it's predecessor sit with a long dry spell and slow death, while trying to figure out what the Wii U was supposed to be (they still dont know), release the 3ds, fucking up, and then trying to fix the 3DS. Oh, and then have the bright fucking idea to keep the dead Wii name for it's successor while not having the software and support needed (thanks to the aforementioned issues and being spread thin) to launch the console properly.

As it is, imho, they need to eat their losses and burn the midnight oil in preparing to both relaunch in the fall at a $100 reduced price, AND have the games to propel its sales past the initial price-drop bump.

Also, if they haven't expanded their studios to appropriately cover both platforms by next year, they deserve all the shit sales they get.

 

[darkside31337]

Wasn't this year head start suppose to help Wii-U build some kind of foundation, like the 360 did

The problem with the Wii U isn't that its a year ahead of the game, its six years late to the party.

 

[Schnozberry]

Wii U needs games with large appeal that justify ANY price, let alone the current price.

Also, no price drop should happen until the other two announce their prices. If the competition is $500 or higher, Wii U will not drop in price.

I agree. But $349 is not a mass market price in this economy regardless. Even the 360 and PS3 didn't hit really impressive sales numbers until they were below $300 inflation adjusted dollars.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

Wasn't this year head start suppose to help Wii-U build some kind of foundation, like the 360 did

Nope the Wii died to quick so they tried to make a "little" money

 

[Miles X]

Looking at launch 360 and PS3 figures, WiiU is no longer ahead of them aligned. As if it needed saying lol.

 

[Durante]

I come up with:
Nintendo 3DS = 231.1°
Nintendo DS = 85.9°
PSV = 34.6°
PSP = 8.4°

Under the 245K assumption, we get:
Nintendo 3DS = 245K
Nintendo DS = 91K
PSV = 37K
PSP = 9K

Fuck yeah! Another 1000 Vitas sold!

 

[TheFLYINGManga_Ka]

Very happy to see Luigi Mansion 2 on there. Hope it has long legs and tops a million.

Wonder how much Monster Hunter or Lego Undercover sold. Worried about Monster Hunter 4's localization now.

 

[A Human Becoming]

I come up with:
Nintendo 3DS = 231.1°
Nintendo DS = 85.9°
PSV = 34.6°
PSP = 8.4°

Under the 245K assumption, we get:
Nintendo 3DS = 245K
Nintendo DS = 91K
PSV = 37K
PSP = 9K

Hopefully that's the case for Vita not 32k.

 

[BlackJace]

I fear for Nintendo's future. It's going to be barren now until holidays as far as impact games go, and even in the holidays, what then?

Lets say Nintendo's dream scenario lineup takes place and they get out both a 3D Mario Galaxy successor, a new Mario Kart, and several companion games like Yoshi Yarn and Wind Waker HD - then what? They'll be competing with PS3 and 360, who still very much have life in them because they haven't even hit a sub $200 budget point, and the launch of two next gen systems. That's a lot of fucking competition.

And lets say despite all that, Wii U has a really good holiday. I think an original Wii type holiday is pie in the sky, but lets say it even does that somehow. What then? You just burned several bullets in the chamber to have a good holiday to cover for a year of completely horrible sales. And then you go back to not having a ton on the horizon and people waiting for Smash Bros and you have several less 'wait until' games.

It's just a dire situation. Next week their investors meeting is going to be really interesting.

Evergreen titles, my friend.

 

[Apenheul]

The NES launched at 200 dollars and was more powerful than the competition at the time. Nope, Master System had much better specs
The SNES launched at 200 dollars and was more powerful than the competition at the time.Nope, Genesis had much better specs
The N64 launched at 200 dollars and was more powerful than the competition at the time.
The GCN launched at 200 dollars and was more powerful than the competition at the time.Than the DC and PS2 at least, not than XBOX
The Wii launched at 250 dollars and was weaker than the competition, although much cheaper.
The Wii U launched at 350 dollars and is just as powerful as the competition, yet more expensive.

Combine this with a poor launch lineup, name/brand confusion, and nearly zero advertising, Nintendo is arrogant for expecting it to sell more than 20,000 units. And I say this as a lifelong Nintendo fan who primarily plays Nintendo games.

fixed.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I come up with:
Nintendo 3DS = 231.1°
Nintendo DS = 85.9°
PSV = 34.6°
PSP = 8.4°

Under the 245K assumption, we get:
Nintendo 3DS = 245K
Nintendo DS = 91K
PSV = 37K
PSP = 9K

I think your numbers conform to the ordering the best on the assumption of 245K. Still need to verify that assumption though.

(NB to donny - maybe can use jvm's for prediction thread?)

 

[MechaX]

Good to see that Fire Emblem Awakening is doing pretty well. And I wasn't expecting those numbers out of Luigi's Mansion or Naruto at all.

But cream needs to show up and give us the Vita and WiiU numbers. That WiiU release list is something tragic.

 

[Polari]

I'll take Gamecube sales as long as it comes with gamecube-quality games.

People say keep saying this, but I don't think they actually owned the system at the time. Gamecube had a number of gems, but on the whole the library was pretty weak – especially when compared with that of the PS2. I think a lot more Gamecube owners looked on in envy at the PS2 library than the reverse.

 

[ascii42]

Poor logic. By your example, Wii U's competition would be PS4 and 720, and those will likely be more expensive than Wii U.

I think the logic is that the 360 was already out and the PS3 launched at the same time as the Wii, so it had to compete with them, but the WiiU is currently only competing with existing consoles.

Not that that tells the whole story.

 

[CrazyDude]

fixed.

No, SNES was the more powerful of the two.

 

[FairXchange]

Bioshock Infinite is incredible, I'd be happier if it launched with a minimum 2 million in sales. Hope they meet their targets, as the production values are clearly through the roof for that game.

 

[Metallix87]

fixed.

There is no "fixed" here. SNES was more powerful than the Genesis.

 

[creamsugar]

No new game > 1m
600k < gowj < gowa < tr, but the diff between each other is less than 10k
hunter / lego fan could be sad

 

[A Human Becoming]

Bioshock Infinite is incredible, I'd be happier if it launched with a minimum 2 million in sales. Hope they meet their targets, as the production values are clearly through the roof for that game.

With how long it was in development, I'm not sure if it has a chance of recuperating its cost. Hopefully I'm wrong.

No new game > 1m
600k < gowj < gowa < tr, but the diff between each other is less than 10k
hunter / lego fan could be sad

3DS number man! 245k y/n?

 

[TheNatural]

No new game > 1m
600k < gowj < gowa < tr, but the diff between each other is less than 10k
hunter / lego fan could be sad

LOL ouch.

 

[Nirolak]

600k < gowj < gowa < tr, but the diff between each other is less than 10k

That has got to be some of the closest numbering ever for games at that sales volume.

 

[shinra-bansho]

No new game > 1m
600k < gowj < gowa < tr, but the diff between each other is less than 10k
hunter / lego fan could be sad

Surprised if GOWA>GOWJ.

Ouch for Monster Hunter and Lego.

 

[AZ Greg]

hunter / lego fan could be sad

 

[Gonzo The Great]

I disagree.

Good for you, you're a NeoGAF member, not a 32 year-old soccer mom who wants to play Wii Sports with her children. If the GamePad had mainstream appeal, the Wii U wouldn't be selling so poorly. The Wii Remote was the first of its kind, hence the code name Revolution, while the Wii U feels like a "me too" product. Nintendo is better as a leader, not a follower.

 

[Kazerei]

No new game > 1m
600k < gowj < gowa < tr, but the diff between each other is less than 10k
hunter / lego fan could be sad

Whoa

And as for MH ... :'(