Schnozberry
Member
No worries.
Avalanche (Just Cause) - Wii U dev kits collecting dust, Nintendo is hard to reach
- Thread starter Flightmare
- Start date
No worries.
As it stands, although it may not appear immediately fair to you or I, every company is evaluated on the market and may be held to different standards. For Nintendo, they reached their critical level of highest success when they were driving trends hard and playing up novelties which resonated with people. So then consumers began expecting a certain type of console experience from them.
But I'd also argue that Sony is constantly investing in new concepts, new franchises, new ideas and movements (side note: I believe the SHARE button is easily as 'innovative' as some of the more applauded legitimate innovations among the gaming community, but we'll see where that goes). And a key difference is that Sony is often willing to put a real marketing and development budget behind it, whereas Nintendo might instead choose a smaller scale production that ends up on eShop. That Sony's attempts are often failures is perhaps a good illustration that such initiatives don't work out or that perhaps Sony doesn't have as good of a talent for it as Nintendo does when they're trying, but they are attempts and I think it's a little unfair to what Sony has been doing with their development and partnerships to simply suggest they're doing the same thing Nintendo is doing.
At the end of the day, however, each system IS held to a different standard on the market. Consumers know that can get a very specific type of experience from Sony or Microsoft, and because of that they feel they don't need Nintendo for those niches. They need Nintendo to be Nintendo, and part of that is in being a little wilder with their gimmicks and ideas. Even if each system was equal tech-wise, that would solve but one issue... Nintendo would still have needed to invest in expanding development teams many years ago by this stage, Nintendo would still be required to think outside the box and provide genre-defining properties that are fresh for consumers.
As I said, it may not be fair in the absolute sense, but Nintendo created these expectations in consumers minds and so realistically they should have found a way to satisfy such expectations without these many major issues a long time ago. Apparently they still have growing pains
Those wii releases need to be on a successful platform in order to sell well. And yes we are talking about a sequel in the now bigger Mario platform brand and it only sold two million, that is troubling for the wii U.
Poimandres
Member
Okay... postulations about 10 million consoles before the competition launches, dozens of killer apps in development, Halo killers and huge profits are all well and good. These are only "possibilities" as you say.
Possibilities are one thing... guarantees are quite another.
Do you still feel that 5+ years of support is guaranteed? Or is this also just a "possibility"?
Schnozberry
Member
This is true of any game.
Zoramon089
Banned
No, it's not because, like I said, it sold to over 60% of the userbase which is ridiculous for a game that isn't packed in.
velvet_nitemare
Member
Didn't Twilight princess have an even higher attach rate? Nintendo fans show up big at launch for Nintendo games, no surprises there.
CoffeeGames
Member
The numbers Nintendo showed the Wii U selling in THE AMERICAS, not just the U.S., as of the end of March 2013 was just over 1.5 million. So, some are saying Nintendo only shipped 1.5 million Wii Us to retailers in all of North and South America from November through the end of March? And that the slightly more than 1.5 million reported for that region is ALL shipped consoles to retailers? I don't see where they are getting that from, because according to the NPD (just U.S. sales) the Wii U sold more than 1 million units from November through the end of March. That doesn't account for any sales in Canada, Mexico, and anywhere else in "THE AMERICAS".
So again, I'm asking for somebody to provide some numbers that show "shipped = sold" in these reports. From what I can see, and know from retail experience with distributors, shipped does not equal sold. If it did, Nintendo would have little use for providing the NPD data.
shinra-bansho
Member
Setting aside that Nintendo does not officially ship to developing countries...
Nintendo shipped 1.32M to "The Americas" as at 31st December 2012.
Similarly they shipped/sold-in/sold to retail 830K units in Japan. And 900K for "Other" which is largely comprised of the European territories.
Nintendo provides separate information in their investor briefing detailing US, Japanese and European sales citing sell-through data.
This for example highlights Media Create sell-through of 630K, or roughly 200K less than their launch shipment for 2012.
Similarly, their sell-through graphs from NPD indicate US sales of 885K. And European sell-through of 430K.
Shipped is sold-in is sold to retail. Again, this is well-established. In an earnings release Nintendo must provide definite numbers of units sold, not sell-through tracker estimates.
You can remain incredulous to this. But you would be wrong.
CoffeeGames
Member
I'm not incredulous anymore, because you provided some numbers! Thanks for that!
If sales should get better it would still take two to three years to develop games. Other than 360 ports Wii U will only get 1st party games. And even Nintendo probably knows by now it's a lost cause and starts redirecting ressources to a next gen platform out in 3 years.
pieatorium
Member
Yes, Halo on the OG Xbox aswell. CoD2 was about 60% on the 360Launch. Even Uncharted GA had a 50% attach rate for Vita Launch (in the west).
High attach rate for the biggest game of a launch period i the norm not an outlier.
metalslimer
Member
NSMBU's numbers makes me wonder how disastrous Wii U's launch would have went without it which seems like a possibility since Nintendo stated that the 3DS taught them they needed Mario at launch like the idea of having a big game at launch was some amazing revelation. Oh and guys it's pretty obvious at this point big youth through out a number like 10 million without actually thinking about what it meant and just doesn't want to admit it was an off the cuff guess, or we're all being trolled I guess.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
I'm starting to consider that we're being trolled. The 10 million was bad enough but then you add on the Retro Halo Killer comment and it smells like a troll.
I don't waste time trolling. I think Wii U could have 10 million sales by the time we see the other 2 next gen consoles. I think Retro's next game is going to being Nintendo's huge effort to capture some of the more mature Western audience that Microsoft and Sony have on lock. Think Goldeneye, Perfect Dark, Halo, CoD. I think it will get a huge marketing push; one of the biggest we've seen from Nintendo, and may be positioned as their big holiday title, at least in the West.
Halo Killer? That's so 2007. CoD dethroned Halo fairly quickly as far as popularity goes.
What would move Wii-U's? Third party support. What creates or incites third party support? Hardware that both consumers get really excited about, and publishers/developers. What gets people excited hardware wise? Raw power and performance along with innovation within the videogame market.
What did Nintendo make hardware wise? Hardware that has performance and power that competes with consoles released in 2005 and 2006. Along with potential innovation that hasn't been showcased yet.
What would move Wii-U's? Third party support. What creates or incites third party support? Hardware that both consumers get really excited about, and publishers/developers. What gets people excited hardware wise? Raw power and performance along with innovation within the videogame market.
What did Nintendo make hardware wise? Hardware that has performance and power that competes with consoles released in 2005 and 2006. Along with potential innovation that hasn't been showcased yet.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
You can think anything you want, obviously, but don't call us out when we argue against these hypotheticals of yours since they're not based on any concrete evidence. I can think that the Wii U will not sell 10 million consoles in it's lifetime and it would be based upon as much data and evidence as you believing it will sell 10 million by November. I'd also expect to be called out by others for such a baseless statement.
Just because you say 'Hypothetically...' doesn't mean you're exempt or immune from having your statement called out.
metalslimer
Member
The disappointment when Retro's game turns out to be Mario Kart 8 will be beyond comprehension.
So Wii u is screwed then...
Please god no
So Wii u is screwed then...
Tell that to the Wii, PS2 and PS1, all beat out more powerful consoles. People are swayed by content and image. People want to play on the hardware their friends are playing on.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Welp... good luck Nintendo. Moms, grandmas, grandpas aren't buying a Wii U this go around, therefore the install base will be drastically lower than the Wii. This will make it even more difficult for Nintendo to get third parties on board which means less people will buy the hardware, less friends to play with.
When Nintendo decided to release a shitty online system with the Wii, it basically handed over millions of potential customers for the foreseeable future to Sony/Microsoft.
You keep providing the most retarded counter arguments imaginable. For Wii U to not reach 10m sold in it's lifetime it would need to be discontinued very soon. You're not using common sense or factoring in history at all.
pieatorium
Member
It wont have 10 million sales, not even 10 million shipped it will be at lucky to have 5 million shipped by end of q3 this year and that will be with a million still in the channel. A pricecut with some of their bigger titles for q4 and they might convince retailers to take some big holiday shipment but it won't even be close to 5 million worth.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Ugh. Don't be so dense. You arguing it can hit 10 million by November is ignoring all data. If I were to say (I'm not that dumb) that the Wii U won't sell 10 million in its lifetime, I would be ignoring all data. I'm not going to make such a ridiculous statement while you have.
Not really if you look what other options Nintendo fans have on the WiiU.
Hint: absolutely nothing.
PS2 and PS1 were technical beasts. The PS2 was beat by the Xbox and Gamecube in many ways power wise, but the PS2 was still one hefty beast that could hold it's own. The PS1 was no slouch either, are you arguing the PS1 was extremely inferior to the N64/Saturn? Because it wasn't.
Wii is an anomaly, as the casual market that never invested in consoles that much or ever could play on something that they can understand. That's innovation taking over a marketplace.
The Wii-U doesn't have an identifiable, or rather, easily noticed innovation that shakes or changes the marketplace. Along with power and performance that will be matched ten fold by the other next gen consoles.
metalslimer
Member
For someone to talk about factoring in history you would know that even coming close to 10 million is impossible. Maybe you should follow your own advice. At this point it would probably be wise to stop posting and think about this because literally no one here agrees with you.
fallingdove
Member
His point was that the statement is as baseless as yours. Your line of thinking that the Wii U is going to have 10 million sold by November is far from reasonable, it's asinine.
But it's not as baseless. There are numerous factors that could get Wii U sales up to 10m by the time the other next gen consoles release. games (those we know about, others we don't), price cut, an effective advertising campaign, etc. it could be as high as a 2% chance of happening, whereas thinking Wii U won't ever reach 10m is somewhere around 0% chance.
metalslimer
Member
Nope, Nintendo would have to give Wii U's away to reach 10 million by November. You don't seem to process the level of resurgence you are talking about. Even being generous and giving Nintendo 500k a month until say August when they might price cut and launch a new campaign, it would have to break records after that to reach 10 million. The chance is less is not 0%, but then nothing in life has a chance of 0%. Iwata could take off his make revealing he is an alien that has been controlling Miyamoto through mind control for a decade and even that has a greater than 0% chance.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
You truly must be a statistician. Nintendo is going to have to sell about 2 million consoles a month from August-October if we basically assume they're not going to have a spike in sales over the next couple of months. The Wii U is currently at 6.5 million or so from reaching the 10 million total. It's going to be LUCKY to sell 500k from now until August. So it will be 6 million away which means it will need 2 million a month. You think that Pikmin 3 is going to get it to that 2 million mark in August? Please.
Lol, they would be lucky if they reach 5 million by then.
Tricky I Shadow
Banned
GAF would melt.
And rightfully so.
This would be one final superhard kick in the balls by Nintendo.
darkistheway
Member
How about this? There is a non-zero chance of the Wii U getting to 10 million by November.
But that doesn't make it a realistic (by any strategy anyone could devise) possibility. Just let it go.
The Wii U's failure is going to take years to fix, if at all. They need to have two or three years of constant, big game releases. They need to spend a lot of money marketing the features of their console. They need to develop an actual Western strategy.
I feel quite confident in saying that no one at Nintendo is thinking 10 million by Christmas so why are you?
10 million by next november/christmas should be pretty easy I'd say, especially with pricecuts and what amir0x was saying about meeting expectations. The gamepad isn't that bad an idea and I'd argue people might have gotten sick of gimmicks and wanted functionality but there is going to be a really high standard set for nintendo first party, like awesome co-op features in mario 3d and some new surprises if they want it to take off more than expected.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Exactly. It seems like he's backed himself into a corner and is just refusing to admit that just because you use the word hypothetical doesn't make your statement anymore legitimate.
michaelius
Banned
What if he belives that North Korea will start war which will affect China and delay production of next gens to 2016 ?
Honestly, if Nintendo wants to turn heads, Retro Studios making an open world cyberpunk F-Zero game that has on foot combat and exploration would be huge. With insanely fast vehicles that can be used to explore the city, and used to participate in high stake races.
But a really good CoD clone or Mario Kart 8 is more probable, might need to run the % program in my brain.
But a really good CoD clone or Mario Kart 8 is more probable, might need to run the % program in my brain.
metalslimer
Member
Wii U's production would also be halted and Nintendo will have what they had produced
I just threw up in my mouth a little. F-Zero's franchise appeal is not enough to essentially make a new IP and shove F-Zero into it.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
There's probably a better chance of that happening than the Wii U selling 10 million by this November so perhaps you're right lol.
darkistheway
Member
Nothing stops the production line at Foxconn.
fallingdove
Member
No such silver bullet exists. Nintendo is still trying to figure out how to correct the mind fuck they created among consumers when they launched a console that appeared to be a peripheral to the Wii. For those that do get it is a new console, Nintendo is still trying to convince these people of the need for a tablet controller and how it will improve gaming experiences. Nintendo are fighting on these fronts while Microsoft and Sony are quickly gaining mindshare with their upcoming systems. At this point, not a game in the world would convince 7million + gamers to buy a Wii U before seeing what the PS4 and Nextbox were all about.
Not if it's GTA Nintendo style. A F-Zero reboot with darker themes and characters, along with a decrepit, cyberpunk city that Retro would probably be great at making.
I'm also incredibly excited about this. Of course, it's all talk at this point, but based on the GDDR5 RAM and the fact that Sony is allocating so much of it to the OS, and everything they've said, it seems like Sony's planning to really evolve the gaming OS and take it to the next level.
To me, this highlights a critical hole in Nintendo's process when it comes to innovation. Too often, Nintendo's innovative ideas come at a cost to the developer. A motion controller that promises new ways to play, but at the expensive of the tried-and-true old ways to play. A tablet controller that forces Nintendo to sacrifice parity and a custom chip that makes porting more difficult than it should be. Nintendo's innovations, however great, always seem to have the drawback of creating an "us or them" environment for developers. Sometimes it works, other times it makes it easier for 3rd parties to continue ignoring Nintendo platforms.
Sony's plans for the PS4 OS, however, not only have the potential to be a huge innovation for the gaming community, but they have the potential to innovate at no cost to 3rd party developers. All of the Share features are OS level; 3rd parties just provide the games and Sony provides the unique experience system-wide. There's some real potential here.
This is the type of innovation Nintendo should be aiming at in the future. All companies, actually.
It would probably be great, but it wouldn't do a thing to expand Nintendo's audience. F-Zero is an irrelevant franchise to all but the MOST hardcore of Nintendo fans at this point.
What am I even reading lol Not even Nintendo is this optimistic. There needs to be wii level or above hype/sales to reach such targets in the coming months. No there's 0 chance it's going to happen. Just need to think a bit using facts and not hopes
Aquamarine
Member
.
Don't do this to me.
Hahaha god no. It would never work. The characters are too goofy. I am pretty sure it is intended that way. I akways though the whole thing was a stealth parody on wrestling,
I am so freaking tired of the whole "OMG Nintendo is going to die". As much as "OMG Mobile is going to kill console!!"
Nintendo was supposed to die since the 90s..
Console sales are overall down since the market is shared among much more different platforms now
It's a 5 month old console ffs.
And what I found most amusing in the OP: We are a tiny indie developer and NEVER had issues to get in contact with Nintendo. They invited us to a conference in Madrid and are constantly checking what we are doing.
So my impression of Nintendo and their relations to indie is completely different. As a matter of fact they are going out of their way to pamper us.
Nintendo is doing a lot to work with indies. Also, I find it funny that people keep forgetting that Nintendo were the first ones to strike a deal with Unity to drop all license cost to publish on their console.
But of course, in Nintendo's case people call it "desperate" while in Sony's case people call it "smart" and "indiefriendly"
darkistheway
Member
To be fair, Nintendo's innovations do seem to be driven by the ideas of their own developers. So it is not just innovation for the sake of being 'different' but rather to push new gameplay concepts into the market.