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[Son of Cervantes]

I read Osamu Inoue's book "Nintendo Magic," which spoke about the salad days of the Wii and the DS. While I like Nintendo's ideas regarding lateral thinking, they dropped the ball tech-wise, and it's a mistake that's catching up to them. While I understand that for various reasons they might not want to make something that's bleeding edge in terms of technology, by essentially being one generation behind in the console business, they've put themselves in a very awkward position regarding third party support. They will essentially be relegated to downports of PS4 and Xbox One titles, if third parties bother at all.

As young people become accustomed to mobile machines with high-quality screens, the low-res screens of the 3DS and 3DS XL become all the more glaringly obvious as well. What's more, the DSi XL and Wii (Gamecube BC version) were the last two products they made that had a sleek, high-tech look, even if the innards weren't the most advanced. The 3DS, the 3DS XL and the Wii U all feel very cheap and toy-ish, especially in comparison to the average smartphone or tablet, which, let's face it, is what Nintendo's competing with nowadays.

"Nintendo Magic" also talks a lot about user-generated content, creating online communities to share that user-generated content and new experiences, and yet Nintendo has absolutely dropped the ball in terms of online with the eShop and the lack of a unified account system.

I don't think Nintendo is going to "die", by any means, but I think they need to seriously re-evaluate where they are heading. The whole asymmetric gameplay idea did not take off during the Gamecube era when they tried it with the Game Boy advance connectivity, and yet they tried it again with the Wii U, hoping for a different outcome. What's more, asymmetric gameplay is fundamentally incompatible with the philosophy behind the Wii, which just confuses people even further, especially given that the Wii U utilizes the Wiimote and the sensor bar.

 

[LocalE]

3DS? It will do fine. Took a sizable knock from mobile gaming but it's still going strong, has awesome games and nothing lasts forever.
Wii U? It's dead. This years games won't save it and neither will Mario Kart. Nobody wants the stupid controller and there is a huge market confusion about the system.

These declarations are insane, in my opinion. Dead? It's not even been on the market 10 months, and most of that time it hasn't been advertised or promoted at all.
Many many people still don't know it even exists.
Also, I love the stupid controller.

You can make fun of the article all you want. But that doesn't change the fact that Wii U is in big trouble.

No, not Nintendo, but the Wii U is in trouble. The console is practically dead in all regions and I doubt that it will recover. It fails to chart with just the Ps3 and X360 on the market, and I doubt it'll change once the Ps4 and X1 are released.

What would be the breaking point in your personal analysis in which the Wii U would be said to have recovered? Gamecube level sales? Gamecube +1? N64 amounts of hardware sold?
What about software sold per system? Where would that have to be with, say, Gamecube level console sales? Do you have some idea on what it would take for you to consider it to have recovered? Are you factoring in the ROI for 1st party titles sold, are you factoring in the licensing fees for third party software?
Can you factor in the sales of wiimotes that people are buying to play NSMBU and Nintendo Land and Pikmin?

Do you think you have the ability to figure the actual situation to the degree that Nintendo's internal bean counters have already estimated?

Nintendo doesn't seem worried or ruffled to me. I think they always know that there is an element of risk and an element of gambling, and they plan in such a way as to be able to cope with a failure and live to try again. They want to be able to roll the dice again and in the future catch that DS/Wii kind of "lightning in a bottle" once again.

What does the Wii U being "in trouble" mean for Nintendo as a corporation with over a hundred years of history?
Can you paint us a picture that accurately tells us that?

Meanwhile, those of who like that kind of shit get to enjoy what we feel are great games that will not be found anywhere else.

Oh, and inB4 "what third party software - hur hur hurr." "durr."

TL?, DR?: this article sucked pretty bad, imo.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Anyway, the point of my post was to share the latest episode of Gruber's podcast, where he and Seigler (the guy quoted in the OP) discuss the topic for about an hour. Its a good level headed discussion.

The Talk Show - Episode 52 - A Bit of Dancing on Their Grave

FWIW, that discussion is with John Siracusa, not Seigler. (which is why is a fairly informed discussion on the matter)

 

[Famassu]

I'm not sure if tailing 20% behind DS (is that even true?) is really that horrible considering DS is, like, the best selling handheld EVER. I'm not sure if anything will touch PS2 & DS numbers again, as far as dedicated gaming devices go.

 

[Jonm1010]

If the WiiU Wind Waker Bundle for $299 is overpriced then I feel the PS4 is WAY overpriced.

Everyone keeps sayings "$399" but what does that get you? I have a PS4 preordered and I do not see how it is anymore than just a graphical boosted PS3 with a slightly better controller. It is not this immense graphical jump like we originally thought. BF4 is still going to be a big downgrade from PC to PS4. You do not get free online or backwards compatibility in games or controllers. Do those mean nothing? Did we go from complaining about paying for online and backwards compatibility to if we get it for free that it doesn't count for anything? My BF4 Bundle was $530 dollars after tax while a WiiU WWHD bundle is $318. Also, the WiiU Pad is, in my opinion, the most "next gen" attribute of any of the three consoles that I have seen. Nintendo is not afraid to try something new, and for that I give them props.

When you buy a console you are buying not only based on present value but expected future value. In the present the ps4 will give you a free game bundled in in drive club, a bunch of free to play games like planetside 2 and access to exclusive games like killzone. The future value is the ps4 is poised to be the lead platform and the early sales leader which guarantees full third party support. couple that with the expected strong second and first party titles and you have some good future value.

To some people $399 seems like a great value, to others it doesn't. It is what it is.

 

[jts]

This. Like someone said before, Nintendo's the Blackberry of console gaming.

So, Blackberry is leader in mobile hardware? Or leader in something at all?

That's so cool. Getting 00's vibes here.

 

[dcx4610]

People act like this is something new for Nintendo. They have been on the path to ruin since the N64 and it's finally come to a head.

The N64 wasn't a flop by any means but it's the system that started the trend of 3rd party developers going elsewhere. Nintendo tried to win them back with the Gamecube but their proprietary disc format, space limitations and licensing fees further drove them away. The Wii was a massive success but to a casual/mainstream crowd. These are the same people that buy whatever the year's hot item is and then...they move on.

The Wii U is a culmination of Nintendo's failures. I don't think there is anything they can do at this point to compete or win back developers or the hardcore gaming community. Even if Nintendo went back to the drawing board and released a power house of a system that can compete with the PS4 and XB1, the damage has already been done and they aren't going to get developers risking time and money again to release software that isn't going to sell.

Nintendo's best hope for survival is let the Wii U die a quiet death and release a hybrid portable/console in a few years. It doesn't have to be powerful or expensive. Just give Nintendo fans a place to play Nintendo games at a fair price and they will survive.

 

[kswiston]

I'm not sure if tailing 20% behind DS (is that even true?) isn't really that horrible considering DS is, like, the best selling handheld EVER. I'm not sure if anything will touch PS2 & DS numbers again, as far as dedicated gaming devices go.

DS had a worse start than the 3DS. If you look at month to month sales at this stage of the console's life, 3DS is selling maybe half of what the DS was. Still, I don't think a potential 70M+ console sales (probably more) qualifies as dead.

 

[Domstercool]

I was taking this article seriously, that is until I saw the "3DS is a failure" phrase.

I would like to uses Gaf's favourite word right now - hyperbole.

I guess the PS3 flopped bad, you know, what with its sales no where near 155 million, but you don't hear anyone else saying it. I didn't know that you had to beat records to be successful.

 

[stilgar]

People act like this is something new for Nintendo. They have been on the path to ruin since the N64 and it's finally come to a head.

The N64 wasn't a flop by any means but it's the system that started the trend of 3rd party developers going elsewhere. Nintendo tried to win them back with the Gamecube but their proprietary disc format, space limitations and licensing fees further drove them away. The Wii was a massive success but to a casual/mainstream crowd. These are the same people that buy whatever the year's hot item is and then...they move on.

The Wii U is a culmination of Nintendo's failures. I don't think there is anything they can do at this point to compete or win back developers or the hardcore gaming community. Even if Nintendo went back to the drawing board and released a power house of a system that can compete with the PS4 and XB1, the damage has already been done and they aren't going to get developers risking time and money again to release software that isn't going to sell.

Nintendo's best hope for survival is let the Wii U die a quiet death and release a hybrid portable/console in a few years. It doesn't have to be powerful or expensive. Just give Nintendo fans a place to play Nintendo games at a fair price and they will survive.

No. At worst, Nintendo is in the same situation as the GC/GBA era : their portable system is a cash cow, their console is a failure.
And I still think history is not yet written for the wii U. It could finally put some decent numbers.

 

[ab.aeterno]

Their sales forecasts were ridiculous though. They were expecting it, and the Wii U, to be successes akin to the DS and Wii

If they missed their initial sales forecasts, that's understandable, if mildly concerning. However, it's not just once. It's now a pattern of over-confidence in their products that never materializes into sales that match those expectations, and it happens over and over again. It sends a very troubling message that they're out of touch with the market they're in and that they do not understand why their products aren't doing well. They absolutely should not be excused for consistently setting wildly inappropriate targets.

Fixed.
Instead of arrogantly "correcting" them, why not address the points raised and contribute to the discussion?

Or it could be as they say, an entry level device meant for <7 years old kids, for whom Nintendo doesn't recommend 3D since day one.

Then they should have not done it in the first place, which is the point: the 3D was a vast mistake, as evidenced by the slow adoption until a drastic price cut. Consumers didn't want the device for its gimmick, they wanted a successor to the DS at a price similar to is predecessor.

I mean, you're basically saying that Nintendo made this 2DS to hit a key demographic they left behind with the 3DS as though that explains everything, but that's precisely the problem. Of they're such a key demographic, why make a device that excludes them in the first place?

 

[gutterboy44]

The article has some fair points and others that I can see as coming off as flame bait. Nevertheless, I think too many people are taking "starting on a downward spiral" as "eating shit at the bottom of the abyss." I think it is fair to say that things aren't exactly salad days at Nintendo, especially with the Wii U about to get two giant nails in the coffin come November. 3/2DS should survive this gen just fine. Their next handheld will be very intersting to watch and a good indication of what this "spiral" is going to look like. It could very well go from a spiral into a spring and launch Nintendo back on top, but other than "faith" in the brand, I don't see much indication of a resurrection in the next few years.

An interesting point I haven't considered is the value of the indestructible Nintendo IP's eventually drying up as the mind-share of the youth is captured by mobile games and the heyday Nintentodo nostalgia of my generation slowly stops gaming/caring about Nintendo or further down the road, dies. I see little kids with Angry Birds attire all the time, anecdotal, but surprising none the less from such a dull "mascot."

Right now Nintendo can continue to bank on their IP which will probably make that spiral a pretty minimal one for the foreseeable future. However, if Nintendo hardware slowly begins to become more like the Wii U where it is a wasteland for developers other than Nintendo, their famous brand recognition will eventually dry up and selling to a company like Apple won't be worth much at that point.

The Wii U numbers in the sales threads are pretty shocking. Poor Wonderful 101 too.

 

[Fess]

Maybe. It is an issue also with perception. It is viewed as underpowered, but I believe Wii U is much more powerful than many think. Clearly not XB1/PS4 levels but enough to have some downports, considering even though it is IBM CPU, the console architecture is very close to PS4 and XB1 (a lot of weight on the GPU, compute shaders, DX 10.1 feature compatible). The problem is if sales don't pick up, no one is going to care, and that is a problem that only resides in Nintendo. Next half I hope they bring their guns and that they at least recoup Fifa next year.

In the worst case scenario we will get Nintendo and indie games, with CoD and maybe Ubi titles like AC.

Yup that's how I feel too. It's a catch 22 really, WiiU won't get down ports if it isn't popular enough, and it won't get popular enough without down ports. It'll be a Nintendo console for Nintendo fans, it'll sell as many units as there are Nintendo fans.

Will that be enough to not call it a complete failure?
Probably not, but I know I'll keep loving it for the simple fact that Nintendo will at least do their very best to make their own games master pieces. That plus the huge back catalog of Nes, Snes, Megadrive, C64, TG16 etc games will make it the ultimate console for both retro fans and Nintendo fans.

 

[Jonm1010]

These declarations are insane, in my opinion. Dead? It's not even been on the market 10 months, and most of that time it hasn't been advertised or promoted at all.
Many many people still don't know it even exists.
Also, I love the stupid controller.



What would be the breaking point in your personal analysis in which the Wii U would be said to have recovered? Gamecube level sales? Gamecube +1? N64 amounts of hardware sold?
What about software sold per system? Where would that have to be with, say, Gamecube level console sales? Do you have some idea on what it would take for you to consider it to have recovered? Are you factoring in the ROI for 1st party titles sold, are you factoring in the licensing fees for third party software?
Can you factor in the sales of wiimotes that people are buying to play NSMBU and Nintendo Land and Pikmin?

Do you think you have the ability to figure the actual situation to the degree that Nintendo's internal bean counters have already estimated?

Nintendo doesn't seem worried or ruffled to me. I think they always know that there is an element of risk and an element of gambling, and they plan in such a way as to be able to cope with a failure and live to try again. They want to be able to roll the dice again and in the future catch that DS/Wii kind of "lightning in a bottle" once again.

What does the Wii U being "in trouble" mean for Nintendo as a corporation with over a hundred years of history?
Can you paint us a picture that accurately tells us that?

Meanwhile, those of who like that kind of shit get to enjoy what we feel are great games that will not be found anywhere else.

Oh, and inB4 "what third party software - hur hur hurr." "durr."

TL?, DR?: this article sucked pretty bad, imo.

Trying to claim that because someone doesn't understand the intricate financial complexities of Nintendo's balance sheets doesn't diminish a persons ability to identify problems and failures in certain aspects of a companies strategy and performance.

 

[zabuni]

I'm surprised to hear this kind of rhetoric, especially coming from the hallowed halls of "techcrunch".

This is just the Apple fanboys trying to make Nintendo go third party.

http://daringfireball.net/2013/09/nintendo_in_motion
http://www.marco.org/2013/09/02/mutex-nintendo

They can't get away from thinking good for apple=good for everyone.

 

[javac]

How much of that was from the GameBoy Advance?

Does that even matter? In fact doesn't that strengthen the fact? Even with a failing home system the handheld helped them make bank. They didn't just make a bit of money. They made shitloads. And that was the fucking GCN era. That success was more or less down to the GBA.

The way I see it, ever since Gameboy, Nintendo have been a handheld developer first and home system second. System sales seem to prove that and I don't know what's so bad about that. Apart from the Wii, the N64, GCN and Wii U (home systems) have been mediocre to down right dreadful sales wise but the handheld market ruled supreme for them. It always has.

 

[numble]

okay

If you take a long view, Nintendo is the only consistently profitable company, when compared against Sony and MS' respective gaming divisions. Xbox in particular has been a hugely failed experiment, if profits and money are what you care about. 6.7 billion in the hole as of 2011, and I assure you that number's getting worse after all of this next gen money hatting. Maybe they should write an article about the death of MS.

Makes sense then that investors, who actually have a stake in things (unlike most the people yelling about Nintendo being dead), are optimistic about Nintendo. http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2013/07/23/five-reasons-why-nintendos-stock-is-surging/

I can also post charts that mislead and confuse past performance with present or future success.

 

[bomb]

Trying to claim that because someone doesn't understand the intricate financial complexities of Nintendo's balance sheets doesn't diminish a persons ability to identify problems and failures in certain aspects of a companies strategy and performance.

You talk about "potential" or "future value". Why not apply some of that same thought process to Nintendo with Pokemon, Zelda, Mario 3D, Mario Kart, and Smash? This article tries to downplay the 2DS, Pokemon, etc. These are the big sellers for Nintendo and none of them have come out on their new platforms. Pokemon is a huge franchise so is Mario Kart and Nintendo are going make a full push on marketing them.

 

[javac]

I can also post charts that mislead and confuse past performance with present or future success.

The graph above actually seems about right lol. I don't know if the numbers are legit but they match up to the timeline perfectly.

 

[Fox318]

When you buy a console you are buying not only based on present value but expected future value. In the present the ps4 will give you a free game bundled in in drive club, a bunch of free to play games like planetside 2 and access to exclusive games like killzone. The future value is the ps4 is poised to be the lead platform and the early sales leader which guarantees full third party support. couple that with the expected strong second and first party titles and you have some good future value.

To some people $399 seems like a great value, to others it doesn't. It is what it is.

Not to mention that the PS4 has better multimedia functionality and can play DVD and Blu-Ray disks. They also have a much better network and way of handling, selling, and playing digital download games.

 

[numble]

The graph above actually seems about right lol. I don't know if the numbers are legit but they match up to the timeline perfectly.

Except fiscal year 2012 and 2013 are already over, where Nintendo coincidentally happened to post losses.

 

[jts]

This is just the Apple fanboys trying to make Nintendo go third party.

http://daringfireball.net/2013/09/nintendo_in_motion
http://www.marco.org/2013/09/02/mutex-nintendo

They can't get away from thinking good for apple=good for everyone.

As an Apple fanboy, I must say that that's just the embarrassing half of Apple fanboys.

I want Nintendo alive and well for as long as I give a crap about games.

 

[Exterminieren]

I mean, you're basically saying that Nintendo made this 2DS to hit a key demographic they left behind with the 3DS as though that explains everything, but that's precisely the problem. Of they're such a key demographic, why make a device that excludes them in the first place?

Nintendo made a play for the handheld demographic having grown up with their handhelds, to the exclusion for the younger audience. This is obvious in the selection of N64 versions banking on nostalgia, to the third party exclusives announced prior to launch like Resident Evil and MGS, to the new and expensive tech in every device. Frankly, they dropped a bollock, and every move they've made since August 2011 has been squarely centred around fixing it.

It was an analysis which didn't pan out, but it's easy to see why it was made. They attempted to expand their market where it couldn't be supported and to abandon the principles that made Nintendo handhelds successful. The 2DS is a course correction.

 

[TylerDurden4321]

I also have this feeling that this decision would come to bite Nintendo in the ass some time in the future, but I can't put my finger on it...

WHY would it be bad for Nintendo to put old games out on iOS? I'm talking 2D games... NES, SNES, GameBoy Advance stuff. I mean do they fear they'd sell less of those on their own platforms if they'd release them for 3.99$ on iOS? Would their BRAND suffer?!??

Honestly I could just as well imagine parents giving their phone to their children to discover their the nintendo games of their childhood (the parents who don't see a point to buy their 6 year old a new nintendo console and try to figure out their eShop)... and their children liking the games and having arguments with their parents until they buy them a 3(2)DS so they can play NEW Nintendo games.

Is everyone SO SURE here that releasing Super Mario World on iOS would hurt Nintendo (I know controls would suck without a controller, but still)?!

 

[Jonm1010]

I said the workflow is the biggest one right now, and I stand by that. The thing that drives hardware sales is software, and they can't produce it in anything like the quantities they need right now.

If they don't solve that problem, there is no reason to purchase their systems over their rivals'. At all.

It certainly is a pressing problem. I don't deny that.

They produced plenty of software for n64 and gamecube and Nintendo still considered both of those as relative failures. The problems go beyond software workflow. Dreamcast had software, it didnt save them.

I admit its a pressing problem but honestly only so much can be done. Nintendo will never return to the days of churning out an exclusive almost every month. It's too costly and takes up too much resources today. And honestly its why third party games and indie support are more pivotal then ever to hardware designers. They can fill the void between your exclusives and can cover niches and genres you don't have the talent or resources or time to develop titles in.

For instance if I'm a sports gamer that likes Mario I have a tough decision right now. I can't get madden, nba 2k or FIFA this year on the wiiU but the ps4 has it. Which console do I buy?

Workflow is a problem but its far from the only problem. There the even bigger problem that workflow issues show which is Nintendo's failure to adequately adapt and change with the future. Workflow can be fixed after the fact, the ability to adequately prepare and foresee changing winds isn't so easy.

 

[kswiston]

I guess the PS3 flopped bad, you know, what with its sales no where near 155 million, but you don't hear anyone else saying it. I didn't know that you had to beat records to be successful.

Everyone was saying this in the first 18 months of the PS3's lifespan. PS3 made a spectacular recovery given the early circumstances, but it was selling Gamecube numbers in Japan (and not much better in the west) for quite awhile. As of March 2008, Sony had only shipped 13M consoles worldwide. It looked destined to achieve N64 numbers. Compared to that, an eventual 90M+ consoles sold/shipped looks pretty good, even if it is a huge drop from the PS2.

Unfortunately for the Wii U, N64 numbers would be an amazing turn of fortune at this point in time. The PS3 at least had full third party support on its side.

 

[javac]

Except fiscal year 2012 and 2013 are already over, where Nintendo coincidentally happened to post losses.

True true. It's the first loss in like 30 years however lol. Kinda crazy if you ask me. Track record was bound to be fucked up eventually.

 

[diffusionx]

I guess the PS3 flopped bad, you know, what with its sales no where near 155 million, but you don't hear anyone else saying it. I didn't know that you had to beat records to be successful.

The industry is 2x or 3x the size of where it was in 2000, when the PS2 came out. If you're not selling more, you are falling behind.

The PS3's failures are well known and Sony has gone through a lot of painful restructuring, a CEO change, and refocusing to try to get back on track. Hell they sold off their HQ and building in NYC. Anyone who said they were doing just great in 2007 would have sounded like a crazy person.

 

[Caronte]

This is just the Apple fanboys trying to make Nintendo go third party.

http://daringfireball.net/2013/09/nintendo_in_motion
http://www.marco.org/2013/09/02/mutex-nintendo

They can't get away from thinking good for apple=good for everyone.

I am an Apple fanboy and I don't want Nintendo to go third party.

 

[Tripon]

As an Apple fanboy, I must say that that's just the embarrassing half of Apple fanboys.

I want Nintendo alive and well for as long as I give a crap about games.

As a person who grew up with Nintendo and m not part of the apple ecosystem I just find it odd how people want and expect nintendo to make games for iOS when that has never has happened.

I'm just not sure how a platformer that is not an endless runner is supposed to play on mobile. And that is what Mario is all about.

 

[Log4Girlz]

Was this written by Drinky Crow?

 

[Jonm1010]

You talk about "potential" or "future value". Why not apply some of that same thought process to Nintendo with Pokemon, Zelda, Mario 3D, Mario Kart, and Smash? This article tries to downplay the 2DS, Pokemon, etc. These are the big sellers for Nintendo and none of them have come out on their new platforms. Pokemon is a huge franchise so is Mario Kart and Nintendo are going make a full push on marketing them.

People do, people have, I did. People all the time around here argue they got a wiiU at launch cause they knew Zelda, smash, Mario kart etc. were coming.

I'm not personally getting one right now because the present value is too small for me. I don't want to invest $299 into a system that only has a small number of interesting titles I can't get elsewhere and the future value doesn't justify the current cost for me. Right now the cons outweigh the positives.

I also have this feeling that this decision would come to bite Nintendo in the ass some time in the future, but I can't put my finger on it...

WHY would it be bad for Nintendo to put old games out on iOS? I'm talking 2D games... NES, SNES, GameBoy Advance stuff. I mean do they fear they'd sell less of those on their own platforms if they'd release them for 3.99$ on iOS? Would their BRAND suffer?!??

Honestly I could just as well imagine parents giving their phone to their children to discover their the nintendo games of their childhood (the parents who don't see a point to buy their 6 year old a new nintendo console and try to figure out their eShop)... and their children liking the games and having arguments with their parents until they buy them a 3(2)DS so they can play NEW Nintendo games.

Is everyone SO SURE here that releasing Super Mario World on iOS would hurt Nintendo (I know controls would suck without a controller, but still)?!

I'm kind of coming around to this position as well. Microsoft is planning to release halo 3 on the PC it seems and I can't imagine it being a detriment to the next halos sales or the xbone. Having halo and halo 2 on PC didnt cannibalize the consoles halo sales going forward.


If anything it might reach an audience that hasn't committed to an Xbox before and playing halo may make them more likely to consider buying one in the future.

I'm not sure that releasing super Mario brothers on steam or iOS would really hurt Nintendo and it may actually help the brand as a whole.

 

[marc^o^]

Instead of arrogantly "correcting" them, why not address the points raised and contribute to the discussion?

First parts of these sentences I agreed with and left untouched, then I applied my opinion: how doesn't it contribute to the discussion?

Then they should have not done it in the first place, which is the point: the 3D was a vast mistake [...]you're basically saying that Nintendo made this 2DS to hit a key demographic they left behind with the 3DS as though that explains everything, but that's precisely the problem. Of they're such a key demographic, why make a device that excludes them in the first place?

Maybe it was a mistake, maybe not. I think 3D on 3DS is a cool incentive that also got them lots of sales. That being said, having this new kid friendly option increases their chances to be even more successful. Maybe a new line of Vita with a no OLED lower kid friendly entry price would also increase sales.

 

[diffusionx]

Is everyone SO SURE here that releasing Super Mario World on iOS would hurt Nintendo (I know controls would suck without a controller, but still)?!

iOS 7 is coming with built-in game controller support. You still have to get a controller in peoples' hands, but what is stopping Nintendo from releasing an official game controller? Hell I would buy one.

 

[Exterminieren]

Nintendo is, at its very core, a toy company. All the greatest Nintendo consoles have been solid, cheap lumps of plastic. They remembered this with Wii and DS Lite, and they spectacularly forgot it with 3DS and Wii U, with their expensive 3D/ Gamepad tech, both of which have been complete albatrosses.

I sincerely hope that 2DS heralds a return to Nintendo doing what it excels at. It's a good first step, at least; it's the first console they've put out since Wii that I feel confident you could beat a man to death with.

 

[SolarPowered]

I don't think it's a sucker who thinks that if Nintendo keeps their current trajectory of continually shrinking market share in an ever more expensive industry that it can and will lead to a long term untenable position for the company.

This appeal to past experience that a lot of Nintendo enthusiasts have is a dangerous assumption to rest on in the business world. We've seen countless examples across all manner of industries, especially tech industries, where companies weathered storms for years only to finally hit one or a few that sink them.

I'd agree with if you they somehow didn't pull profits out of it all. We'll see Nintendo pushed to the limits with Wii U and 3DS. Let's see if they can pull profits out of Wii U.

 

[Jonm1010]

I'd agree with if you they somehow didn't pull profits out of it all. We'll see Nintendo pushed to the limits with Wii U and 3DS. Let's see if they can pull profits out of Wii U.

They have managed to stay afloat so well because of handhelds and the wii. My understanding is their consoles have been barely treading water with the exception of the wii and now they have been reporting loses for two years.

 

[TylerDurden4321]

iOS 7 is coming with built-in game controller support. You still have to get a controller in peoples' hands, but what is stopping Nintendo from releasing an official game controller? Hell I would buy one.

me too. Or imagine a bundle of old Mario games, HDMI-connector and classic SNES controller with bluetooth support. Can't be too expensive to manufacture right?

 

[Lordwindowlicker]

Nintendo's has a bad product with the Wii U right now,

I completely disagree.

They have a good console that just needs more software. It has a lot of potential.

 

[ab.aeterno]

Maybe it was a mistake, maybe not. I think 3D on 3DS is a cool incentive that also got them lots of sales. That being said, having this new kid friendly option increases their chances to be even more successful. Maybe a new line of Vita with a no OLED lower kid friendly entry price would also increase sales.

No, because that would fruitlessly abandon their core demographic for one they've never had much success with. Do you not realize who the target demographics are of each of the big three or are you just ignoring them? It's an absurd suggestion because it would be so ill matched for their audience, game portfolio, and third party partners. Not to be an ass, but how can you discuss business strategies while ignoring something so key?

I like the Vita, but its failing because the market just isn't interested in its games, price, and overall value proposition. The reasons for that could be numerous, and that's why I doubt the price drop does much.

Besides which, you're no longer discussing the original point: the 2DS admits they misjudged their audience and is an attempt to capitalize on the young demographic they left behind with 3D tech and a high price.

It was an analysis which didn't pan out, but it's easy to see why it was made. They attempted to expand their market where it couldn't be supported and to abandon the principles that made Nintendo handhelds successful. The 2DS is a course correction.

Agreed; that's why it's a an unspoken admission they missed the mark initially.

 

[Chuckpebble]

FWIW, that discussion is with John Siracusa, not Seigler. (which is why is a fairly informed discussion on the matter)

Aw, crap. That was an embarrassing mistake. Whelp. Can't erase the ether. I was wondering why that article didn't jive with the podcast as well.

 

[airmangataosenai]

A bit too confrontational so some of the super fans will ignore his larger point, but overall a very good article which makes some important points about just how flimsy the talking points defending Nintendo's current position is. People that bring up their cash reserves while ignoring the absurdity of just burning money for years and years just to stubbornly prop up an undesirable product are morons who have no idea how a business works.

If a turnaround could realistically happen then yes it'd be worth it, but what's a turnaround for the Wii U? 300-500k shipments worldwide during non-holiday quarters would represent a 200-300% increase from the status quo, and they would still be unbelievably awful.

The facts are this: Nintendo's game development hasn't been profitable in 2 years and might not be again this year even with Pokemon. Last year they made money off of investments and currency speculation alone, but investors still only see the hole in the ground that is Nintendo's main division. Third party is unlikely right now, but ending dedicated consoles might not be that far off, maybe even just one more iteration.

 

[Neff]

This is the most "but but but" piece of writing I've ever seen from anyone regarding videogames.

 

[axisofweevils]

I also have this feeling that this decision would come to bite Nintendo in the ass some time in the future, but I can't put my finger on it...

WHY would it be bad for Nintendo to put old games out on iOS? I'm talking 2D games... NES, SNES, GameBoy Advance stuff. I mean do they fear they'd sell less of those on their own platforms if they'd release them for 3.99$ on iOS? Would their BRAND suffer?!??

Honestly I could just as well imagine parents giving their phone to their children to discover their the nintendo games of their childhood (the parents who don't see a point to buy their 6 year old a new nintendo console and try to figure out their eShop)... and their children liking the games and having arguments with their parents until they buy them a 3(2)DS so they can play NEW Nintendo games.

Is everyone SO SURE here that releasing Super Mario World on iOS would hurt Nintendo (I know controls would suck without a controller, but still)?!

It would damage the brand. An oldskool SNES-era Mario game would look and feel completely dated to a kid growing up today (the new audience Nintendo would be targeting), and worse still, they'd have to play through said game with worse controls. It wouldn't do anything to promote Mario, and it would actively harm them.

The most important point about Nintendo is that their much loved games are only available on their platforms. They are exclusive. The moment that changes, there is less reason to buy Nintendo hardware.

iOS 7 is coming with built-in game controller support. You still have to get a controller in peoples' hands, but what is stopping Nintendo from releasing an official game controller? Hell I would buy one.

The problem with the controller argument is that a lot of iPhone users are dead against the concept of "carrying two devices with them". The idea that they'd suddenly be happy to carry the equivalent of a dualshock around with them is laughable.

 

[Liha]

Nintendo had his first loss for half a century, Nintendo is a 100% healthy company.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

I completely disagree.

They have a good console that just needs more software. It has a lot of potential.

They can't compete with a console with last gen specs. It worked with the Wii as they caught a one time, lightning in a bottle fad with getting non-gamers to buy a game console for waggle and Wii Sports/Wii Fit.

Now that that market is dried up, all they're getting is Nintendo diehards, and some family/kids (though that's more the 3DS given the Wii U price).

If they want to even get back to Gamecube, much less N64, level sales there next console needs to be on equal power/graphics footing with the other current gen machines so they get equal looking third party ports. And they need to have their heavy hitter first party games all ready within a year at launch, including a major one day one.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

The problem with the controller argument is that a lot of iPhone users are dead against the concept of "carrying two devices with them". The idea that they'd suddenly be happy to carry the equivalent of a dualshock around with them is laughable.

Yeah, I think the iOS controller support is more focused on people gaming on iPads rather than iPhones.

Even then, I don't have much interest in carrying a controller around. Then again, even my 3DS seldom leaves the house as I'm just not so into gaming that I need to do it when out and about or traveling.

 

[Aaron Strife]

When is the Vita going to take off? When did the n64 and GC take off? Consoles can fail. They don't always succeed just because.

Just want to point out that the N64 was hardly a failure, at least in the US. It outsold both the Genesis and the SNES. However it catered to the market that was already there, whereas Sony expanded it greatly, so it's underwhelming by comparison.

 

[marc^o^]

ignoring the absurdity of just burning money for years and years [...]are morons who have no idea how a business works.

So far they have not been very aggressive in terms of price, to avoid losing billions in the first years, which is actually the opposite to MS and Sony last gen strategies, which pay off in the long run.

 

[Exterminieren]

They can't compete with a console with last gen specs. It worked with the Wii as they caught a one time, lightning in a bottle fad with getting non-gamers to buy a game console for waggle and Wii Sports/Wii Fit.

Now that that market is dried up, all they're getting is Nintendo diehards, and some family/kids (though that's more the 3DS given the Wii U price).

If they want to even get back to Gamecube, much less N64, level sales there next console needs to be on equal power/graphics footing with the other current gen machines so they get equal looking third party ports. And they need to have their heavy hitter first party games all ready within a year at launch, including a major one day one.

Exactly the opposite, to be honest. Nintendo need the next home console as cheap as possible and as easy to develop for as they can. Frequent first party software and highly affordable consoles are Nintendo's magic bullets, not attempting to compete on a field that they're nowhere near equipped to properly compete on. The Wii U provides neither of these.