The Death Of Nintendo Has Been Greatly Under-Exaggerated
- Thread starter Tripon
- Start date
And throwing good money after bad is a better financial plan?
How long do you hold off building a successor and continue throwing your resources at a failed product? One year? Two years? Three??
If Nintendo isn't busy trying to build a successor to the wiiU they truly are in trouble.
The fact 2DS releases the day Pokemon launches should give you a hint on my answer to this question.
KillerTravis
Banned
Nintendo is fine.
Chuckpebble
Member
I've been following this discussion since Gruber's post the day the 2DS was revealed:
Click the link above to read an update.
I was kind of shocked by that post, but really dug his lengthy follow up for the most part.
+He suggests Nintendo make iOS software in addition to its own software as a backup plan.
- He thinks they should make a "best of breed" piece of hardware. I'm pretty sure he knows nothing of the VITA and its own woes.
Anyway, the point of my post was to share the latest episode of Gruber's podcast, where he and Seigler (the guy quoted in the OP) discuss the topic for about an hour. Its a good level headed discussion.
The Talk Show - Episode 52 - A Bit of Dancing on Their Grave
The gaming discussion begins at 1 hour 29 minutes. Listen straight through if you're at all interested in the Ballmer ouster.
The strongest point made in the whole discourse, Nintendo needs to make their digital content more easily accessible and streamlined. This really resonates with me, as the sole reason I am a WiiU holdout is the Wii ghetto that all of my Wii software would be stuck in.
Click the link above to read an update.
I was kind of shocked by that post, but really dug his lengthy follow up for the most part.
+He suggests Nintendo make iOS software in addition to its own software as a backup plan.
- He thinks they should make a "best of breed" piece of hardware. I'm pretty sure he knows nothing of the VITA and its own woes.
Anyway, the point of my post was to share the latest episode of Gruber's podcast, where he and Seigler (the guy quoted in the OP) discuss the topic for about an hour. Its a good level headed discussion.
The Talk Show - Episode 52 - A Bit of Dancing on Their Grave
The gaming discussion begins at 1 hour 29 minutes. Listen straight through if you're at all interested in the Ballmer ouster.
The strongest point made in the whole discourse, Nintendo needs to make their digital content more easily accessible and streamlined. This really resonates with me, as the sole reason I am a WiiU holdout is the Wii ghetto that all of my Wii software would be stuck in.
I'd be very happy with that.
Of course they are already working on a successor. But saying they need it out immediatly is suicide. The WiiU will be around for better or worse for at least three years.
Chû Totoro
Member
Did you read the "PS". I'm not saying Microsoft and Sony are not making good games. It's just a completely different view about what gaming is. Of course Nintendo is mainly making its hardware for it's games... and if they can satisfy 3rd party too they do their best but with Wii U they chose (maybe a bad decision I'm not saying the contrary) the GamePad and imagine a system where their games could make great use of it.
The problem is not the hardware or the GamePad, it's the quality of the games that comes on it.
People are talking about f2p and mobile gaming success but the best success are Angry Birds or Candy Crush Saga... do you really think that these games need a powerful phone or PC to run on? Of course not.
And if you think Wii U don't have the games you want just don't buy it. I don't like the launch games on PS4 and Xbox One... I'm waiting to see the upcoming games and when I'll be ok with the library I'll buy one. I'm not asking for Sony or Microsoft to make a Mario Kart like or a Smash Bros like... and if I don't have the games I like on PS4 / Xbox One for the whole gen then I won't buy them and hope for better (imo) games next gen but I won't make threads saying that Sony or Microsoft are doomed because they have loss (they'll almost certainly have some during the first years of the two systems).
Edit :
=> The Simpsons characters had been used for more than 20 years and nothing changed in the concept. Good things are good. I'm sorry but I enjoyed as much (if not more) Super Mario Galaxy 2 than Super Mario Bros 3 which are completely different games (way more different than Uncharted 1, 2 and 3 or all of the CoD games or.. I could go forever).
Edit 2 : and so you can understand that I can speak of other games than Nintendo ones, GTA is now a more than ten years old franchise... and it's still the reference. Gran Turismo is for a lot of people the best racing franchise and it's just an improved game year after year (it's more than that but I'm exaggerating so you can see my point)
Like I said. You don't like, don't hate. That's all.
anexanhume
Member
I'm sick of technology/gadget sites covering video game topics and predicting failure when they clearly have no grasp of the market that's buying these things. Stick to phones and tablets please.
I don't agree with Nintendo a lot, especially Iwata, but I think they are right to not release any legacy titles on iOS.
Their brand and franchises are Nintendo. It would be a short term solution that would create a long term diminisent of the brand power.
Actually, no... that's been their MO since they formed a video game division.
I don't want to get into list wars here (as it would prove unproductive) but if you think Nintendo just shines up the same turd every year and adds a new wrinkle to it you aren't really paying attention. Even if I'm not a fan of a great many of them, even if I'm acknowledging that they don't have the budget of a GTA game, they create a shit ton of new content and new IPs every generation. The Wii had a lot more of them than the Gamecube, as did the DS have metric shit ton.
Correct. The console is sitting out this generation at its current pace.
punkmaggit
Member
Almost word for word how I feel.
I miss when the Nintendo concentrated on better hardware, not a gimmick. Granted, some gimmicks can be utilized to provide a better gaming experience (Etrian Odyssey used the bottom screen well and Wii Sports was awesome as a tech demo, but wasn't something I would sink time into), but I think the "waggle" effect starts to permeate developer's minds and it the gimmick becomes mis or poorly used.
The_Macho_King
Banned
Why would anyone waste money on a 3 year console?
BocoDragon
or, How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Realize This Assgrab is Delicious
Tech sites do have a bad habit of being completely uninformed about the realities of the gaming market, I agree.
Massive Duck. C.M.
Banned
How can you say it's been under-exaggerated when a good quarter of the front page threads are predicting/lamenting/gloating over the death of Nintendo?
Warm Machine
Member
Nintendo should not make iOS games. There is barely an upside to that. The $1 price barrier will immediately bone them. Even if they do Supercell well on a couple games they won't be doing better than they do with their own ecosystem.
The only way out for Nintendo right now is through. Weather the Xbox One/PS4 storm, shut down the WiiU gradually. Get the 3DS into a sunset in 2 years and come back with a strong singular platform.
The only way out for Nintendo right now is through. Weather the Xbox One/PS4 storm, shut down the WiiU gradually. Get the 3DS into a sunset in 2 years and come back with a strong singular platform.
you're right, after the 360 and ps3 had been out for 3 years everyone stopped buying them.
also this article is dumb.
Mushroomer25
Member
Another day, another tech blogger looking for quick fame by writing inflammatory articles with little basis in reality. What's new here? Why give the idiot attention?
Honestly, Nintendo's got one hit product, and one failed product with a chance at redemption. That's not good, but they're not shuttering the doors fucking tomorrow.
Honestly, Nintendo's got one hit product, and one failed product with a chance at redemption. That's not good, but they're not shuttering the doors fucking tomorrow.
At least.
The wii had a lot of easily consumable casual titles aimed at that atypical and casual consumer that bought a wii. Outside of that the vast majority of Nintendo IP's last gen and this have been legacy franchises.
In terms of creating new IP's they are behind the other two by quite a margin, Sony especially.
Their handhelds are a different story to an extent.
Massive Duck. C.M.
Banned
Maybe not today right now, but give it a while.
To clarify, I'm not one of the doomsayers.
jts
...hate me...
The 2DS is also proof that stereo sound is a fad and a failure.
The PSP E1000 and the Wii mini go so far as to prove that wifi is a failure.
PS3 post launch... backwards compatibility is a failure. Lots of USB ports? Failure.
iPad mini. Because 9.7" are a failure.
Toilet paper... washing your ass is a failure.
The PSP E1000 and the Wii mini go so far as to prove that wifi is a failure.
PS3 post launch... backwards compatibility is a failure. Lots of USB ports? Failure.
iPad mini. Because 9.7" are a failure.
Toilet paper... washing your ass is a failure.
megabytecr
Member
Maybe. It is an issue also with perception. It is viewed as underpowered, but I believe Wii U is much more powerful than many think. Clearly not XB1/PS4 levels but enough to have some downports, considering even though it is IBM CPU, the console architecture is very close to PS4 and XB1 (a lot of weight on the GPU, compute shaders, DX 10.1 feature compatible). The problem is if sales don't pick up, no one is going to care, and that is a problem that only resides in Nintendo. Next half I hope they bring their guns and that they at least recoup Fifa next year.
In the worst case scenario we will get Nintendo and indie games, with CoD and maybe Ubi titles like AC.
It's a shitty situation for sure. I mean abandon it after three years and you risk that a lot of loyal Nintendo fans that bought your console may feel cheated. Don't and you risk hurting the long term viability of your company in the console marketplace.
But clearly they need to be crafting a successor and maybe being on a release schedule that hits right in the middle of the other two could be a smart move for Nintendo....Or It it could be suicide haha
Amibguous Cad
Member
Pokemon on iOS plz.
I think quality downports will be a rarity. Heck ports seem to be becoming a rarity these days already. But the gap between Nintendo's GPU and ram compared to the other two isn't an easy hurdle to overcome.
SolarPowered
Member
Not entirely true. There are lots of suckers who think Nintendo is doomed as a company which is obviously not true. You are right on the money about Wii U.
Exterminieren
Banned
The article has a couple of half-decent points buried in it, but completely loses its way in tech-site dick waggling.
Nowhere is this more apparent than in the dismissal of the 2DS concept as a sign of Nintendo's doom. It's absolute nonsense, as has already been pointed out repeatedly- it's every bit as valid a play as the iPhone 5C is, and is no more a sign of failure. This kind of re-positioning and rolling with the punches is exactly the kind of thing he says Nintendo needs to be doing, but he doesn't credit it because it isn't the leap forward that he demands from the tech.
And comparing Blackberry to Nintendo is like comparing apples with antifreeze. In the absence of any reasons for his statements comparing the two, I'm chalking that up to the writer really not understanding Nintendo's angle in the slightest and trying to force it into a framework he understands.
Wii U's in a heap of shit, there's no denying that.
Nowhere is this more apparent than in the dismissal of the 2DS concept as a sign of Nintendo's doom. It's absolute nonsense, as has already been pointed out repeatedly- it's every bit as valid a play as the iPhone 5C is, and is no more a sign of failure. This kind of re-positioning and rolling with the punches is exactly the kind of thing he says Nintendo needs to be doing, but he doesn't credit it because it isn't the leap forward that he demands from the tech.
And comparing Blackberry to Nintendo is like comparing apples with antifreeze. In the absence of any reasons for his statements comparing the two, I'm chalking that up to the writer really not understanding Nintendo's angle in the slightest and trying to force it into a framework he understands.
Wii U's in a heap of shit, there's no denying that.
Ha, fair enough.
diffusionx
Gold Member
PS3 was a massive failure. It destroyed Sony's momentum in the hardware business and lost them billions of dollars. The PS3 lost them as money as the PS1 and PS2 earned them. Just the fact that they scraped something together that turned out halfway okay after five years doesn't make it a success.
I agree with this article more than I don't agree with it. The Wii U is a failure. The 3DS is doing alright, but it's doing alright in a business that is shrinking rather than growing. And being the top dog in a shrinking business may make you decent revenue today but it does not set you up for success tomorrow. Nintendo is starting to look like a horse buggy manufacturer in 1890.
They'll do what they are doing. Keep buying and releasing big exclusives and franchises on it until they can safely release a successor.
peanutbutterlatte
Member
no lolz
Building a successor would do nothing to alleviate the apparent workflow problem they have with releasing first-party software at a timely rate - and indeed, it could easily exacerbate that issue.
That is Nintendo's biggest problem right now. Bar none.
Well, this is implicit - pretty much any R&D dept for a first party would pretty much be thinking about the successor as soon as a product is released. It's normal.
I don't think it's a sucker who thinks that if Nintendo keeps their current trajectory of continually shrinking market share in an ever more expensive industry that it can and will lead to a long term untenable position for the company.
This appeal to past experience that a lot of Nintendo enthusiasts have is a dangerous assumption to rest on in the business world. We've seen countless examples across all manner of industries, especially tech industries, where companies weathered storms for years only to finally hit one or a few that sink them.
I think Nintendo has a number of critical problems, narrowing it down to just the workflow problem is ignoring quite a number of big ones IMO. The n64 and gamecube managed to get out timely titles but if it hadn't been for handhelds Nintendo would of been in dire straights due to the poor performance of those consoles. The wii bought Nintendo some time but workflow isn't their only problem.
Absolutely. The Wii U is great and most people who have one love it, same as the Vita. The problem both have is that they aren't getting any marketing push at all right now and even when they did their ads sucked.
H_Prestige
Banned
What do they have, like 8 billion in the bank? That's not even that much. Sony lost 5 billion practically overnight just because of a few wrong moves. It's not that big of a safety net. And it's not something shareholders care about in the first place.
The implication being that the n64 and GC were hated by most owners? Not sure why this is brought up continually. Why does someone's personal feelings about the Wii U or Vita matter when discussing sales and revenue?
Warm Machine
Member
Get a single screen hybrid out Nov 2016. That gives them almost a full 6 years of the 3DS and just 4 years on the WiiU. Promote it as the 3rd pillar or whatever BS like the DS was when it was released and then drop the other two as fast as possible.
By that time small form factor will be pumping out tech far better than the WiiU with good battery performance. Also gives Nintendo at least 2 years of software development for it with a view to porting single screen WiiU titles over to it to firm up launch. Xbox One and PS4 luster will have faded by then and people will be looking for something fresh and lightweight.
By that time small form factor will be pumping out tech far better than the WiiU with good battery performance. Also gives Nintendo at least 2 years of software development for it with a view to porting single screen WiiU titles over to it to firm up launch. Xbox One and PS4 luster will have faded by then and people will be looking for something fresh and lightweight.
B
bomb
Unconfirmed Member
If the WiiU Wind Waker Bundle for $299 is overpriced then I feel the PS4 is WAY overpriced.
Everyone keeps sayings "$399" but what does that get you? I have a PS4 preordered and I do not see how it is anymore than just a graphical boosted PS3 with a slightly better controller. It is not this immense graphical jump like we originally thought. BF4 is still going to be a big downgrade from PC to PS4. You do not get free online or backwards compatibility in games or controllers. Do those mean nothing? Did we go from complaining about paying for online and backwards compatibility to if we get it for free that it doesn't count for anything? My BF4 Bundle was $530 dollars after tax while a WiiU WWHD bundle is $318. Also, the WiiU Pad is, in my opinion, the most "next gen" attribute of any of the three consoles that I have seen. Nintendo is not afraid to try something new, and for that I give them props.
Everyone keeps sayings "$399" but what does that get you? I have a PS4 preordered and I do not see how it is anymore than just a graphical boosted PS3 with a slightly better controller. It is not this immense graphical jump like we originally thought. BF4 is still going to be a big downgrade from PC to PS4. You do not get free online or backwards compatibility in games or controllers. Do those mean nothing? Did we go from complaining about paying for online and backwards compatibility to if we get it for free that it doesn't count for anything? My BF4 Bundle was $530 dollars after tax while a WiiU WWHD bundle is $318. Also, the WiiU Pad is, in my opinion, the most "next gen" attribute of any of the three consoles that I have seen. Nintendo is not afraid to try something new, and for that I give them props.
How much of that was from the GameBoy Advance?
Petrae
Member
Right there with you.
3DS/2DS are doing well enough that it prevents Nintendo from having to panic as some suggest the company should. I do believe that it's fair to move the goalposts in a little bit as the mobile sector undoubtedly has taken a bite out of the handheld market-- so selling 20% less than the DS at this point should be in the acceptable range. Perhaps 2DS thrusts things forward with Pokemon, as I see many predicting.
The WiiU most likely isn't making a 3DS-type turnaround and could ultimately be perceived as a strong disappointment or even a failure. This isn't Nintendo fending off the Vita again. This is Nintendo trying to remain relevant in the console space against two aged platforms in the 360 and PS3 (which are both still handily crushing WiiU) and PS4 & XBO (which will both be pushed hard come mid-Q4). Four competitors-- not one or two like Vita & PSP, neither of which ever truly posed a significant threat to Nintendo in the handheld arena.
Despite WiiU's immense struggles, Nintendo will survive. I'll be curious to see what the company follows up the WiiU with and if any lessons were learned from its poor performance. In the meantime, I expect strength from the 3DS/2DS to build for the rest of this calendar year at least.
diffusionx
Gold Member
That $8 billion (or whatever it is) should be used to build the future of the company anyway. If they are spending it to patch up holes in revenue caused by dumb decisions and bad strategies, that is terrible news. Anyone pointing to a bank account as a sign they are in decent shape is clueless.
Petrae said:
Nobody, not even MG Siegler (the author of the column in the OP), thinks Nintendo is dead. Siegler, etc., are saying that Nintendo is in a death spiral, which is a very different thing. It basically means that their business is eroding around them and they can't figure out a way to reverse itself. RIM was in this position after the iPhone was released, they just didn't know it. Hell they posted peak revenue sometime in like, 2010. I bet Crackberry fans loved that. Look at them now.
The DS came out 3 1/2 years after the GBA.
I said the workflow is the biggest one right now, and I stand by that. The thing that drives hardware sales is software, and they can't produce it in anything like the quantities they need right now.
If they don't solve that problem, there is no reason to purchase their systems over their rivals'. At all.
Well, they better hope that companies like Google & Apple don't join the dedicated home gaming console market, because they're some of the companies that Nintendo fears the most.
This. Like someone said before, Nintendo's the Blackberry of console gaming.
shouamabane
Member
I'm surprised to hear this kind of rhetoric, especially coming from the hallowed halls of "techcrunch".