Oklahoma City Thunder fans have seen this movie before. Only this time, they're hoping for an alternate ending.
In case you haven't noticed, the Thunder are juggernauts again. They're 20-4, which is the best record in the NBA. And they've achieved that lofty record despite the sixth-toughest strength of schedule in the league thus far. With 10 victories over winning teams -- no other team has more than eight -- they've earned the top spot on Hollinger Power Rankings with a comfortable cushion over the rest of the league.
Kevin Durant is playing like an MVP once again, pushing his ceiling to impossible heights. Russell Westbrook is back, registering a Westbrook-like 23.2 PER in December. Only one other player can match Serge Ibaka's 14.6 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game this season and he was drafted No. 1 overall two years ago -- Anthony Davis.
Why not? To be the best I think you eventually have to get to a starting role and you have to do it consistently. Thirty-plus minutes night in and night out and get championships. So that's the thing that motivates me each and every day and what I strive for. -- Reggie Jackson to the Oklahoman
We knew the OKC trio was good. We just didn't know their teammate, Reggie Jackson, would be this good, this quickly. So far this season, he's averaging 12.0 points, 3.5 assists and 3.8 rebounds. Not impressed? Well, those numbers are deflated because he's playing as a reserve. He's averaging 17.6 points, 5.1 assists and 5.6 rebounds per 36 minutes while shooting 47.5 percent from the floor. As I pointed out in last week's episode of The BIG Number, the list of players who can match those numbers is a short one: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and now Manu Ginobili.
Yeah, Jackson's good. But OKC fans might be dreading that he's too good. Here's why: one of the ironclad rules during general manager Sam Presti's tenure in OKC is he does not let his young studs get to free agency. Sign them to an extension before their rookie deal expires or flip them to another team for more assets. Jackson's eligible for an extension this July.
The small market organization can't afford to let the open market set the prices. Faced with the possibility that his young player could walk away for nothing, Presti has made his policy clear: extend early or trade before it's too late. Presti is serious about this rule. Just ask James Harden, who was traded four days before the final season of his rookie contract began. Look at Jeff Green, who was starting for the division-leading Thunder before he was dealt midseason in 2010-11.
Is Jackson next?
This is where OKC fans hope the alternate ending hits. Jackson has one more season left on his contract after this one so they have some time to figure out his future. But he's boosting his price tag seemingly every game. At 23, Jackson is earning just $1.3 million this season and due $2.2 million next season before his contract is up. The Thunder already have about $50 million dedicated to their star trio -- Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka -- in 2015-16 which is when Jackson's possible extension would kick in.
Here's the good news: the Kendrick Perkins albatross will expire that summer. Assuming Presti does not have a fetish for turnovers and pouting, Perkins won't be re-signed at big money, which would lift nearly $10 million off the books. The Thunder could fit Jackson into that space, assuming that he doesn't attract max offers from other teams in the same way that Harden did.
Jackson has blossomed this season with Durant leading the way.
But Jackson's not as productive as Harden was at this age and likely wouldn't garner an eight-figure salary in 2015-16. That math changes if Jackson develops a 3-point shot. Jackson already is an elite penetrator and finisher at the level of Harden, but the Boston College product has lacked a complementary jumper.
However, that might be a thing of the past. In just 24 games this season, Jackson already has made more midrange jumpers than he did in 70 games last season. Jackson converted 35.4 of his shots in that area last season and is now up to 47.2 percent. His 3-point shot efficiency also has risen from an awful 23.1 percent last season to 29.3 percent. If Jackson continues to develop his perimeter game, the Sixth Man of the Year Award will be his. And then some.
Jackson's getting better and he already views himself as a starter in the league. When recently asked by The Oklahoman about whether he saw himself as a starter in the NBA, Jackson gave an ominous (to OKC fans) response.
"Why not?" Jackson said. "To be the best I think you eventually have to get to a starting role and you have to do it consistently. Thirty-plus minutes night in and night out and get championships. So that's the thing that motivates me each and every day and what I strive for."
Jackson doesn't have a starting gig. And he's not averaging 30 minutes night in and night out. The Thunder hope that Jackson doesn't follow in Harden's footsteps, looking for a starting gig and a star's salary, because he probably won't find it in OKC.
The Thunder have been notoriously stubborn about their starting lineup even though it's getting clobbered by a margin of 10.1 points every 100 possessions this season, according to NBA.com. Jackson has played with the starting personnel in place of Thabo Sefolosha for just 20 of his 590 minutes this season. The Thunder have outscored opponents by seven in those 20 minutes, if you were wondering. Even better: Jackson in place of Perkins, where the score is 91-59 OKC in 40 minutes of action.
Jackson deserves more playing time, but he's playing behind a top-10 player in Westbrook. Indeed, perhaps Jackson could supplant Westbrook one day and allow the Thunder to find similar production at a discount price. But breaking up one of the top duos in the game doesn't seem prudent for a small-market team that has them locked up through 2016-17. Ultimately, this is a good problem to have. OKC has produced yet another Sixth Man of the Year candidate out of nowhere to complement their stud trio.
Rest assured, the majority of NBA front offices would gladly trade their problems for OKC's "dilemma" of having too much young talent. Two summers ago, OKC fans wondered if Jackson could step in and be their next James Harden. They better hope the impression only goes so far.
