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2013 Feb NBA Season lOT| Controlling it like a man, bruh

Vahagn

Member
Vag, your grasp of player roles is a bit lacking.

Not sure shot creators should really be compared to big guys who get five shots a game and all of those shots are wide open dunks created by their teammates. Or spotup shooters who get open threes off of penetration from their teammates.

Unless you're arguing that LeBron's efficiency is because of him not creating his shot as much as Kobe or something insane like that.


Cool. See now we're delving a little deeper and discerning based on "player roles". Which is one way to analyze this information further. I've argued for a long time that Dwight's efficiency is misleading because he doesn't create his own shot and is poor at it for example. Which takes into account what you're suggesting.


But "Player roles" is just part of it. For example Who's a better scorer? Allen Iverson or Rajon Rondo for example? Same Roles, but Rondo is much more efficient. AI is much more prolific and well-rounded. What's more important?


Who's a better scorer Dwight Howard or Pau Gasol? The Efficiency numbers aren't close. The Roles are though. and Pau's much more skilled.


When I say Efficiency is over rated it doesn't mean Monta Ellis is a great player, it means - I think - AI is a much better scorer than Rondo and Gasol is much better scorer than Howard despite much lower efficiency numbers for example.
 
Dwight created his shot all the time in Orlando and scored most of his points off of postups in Orlando.

And Rondo is one of the most inefficient players in the NBA because he's afraid of the free throw line and doesn't have three point range.
 

Vahagn

Member
I am going to LOL at your ability to make things up on the fly to support your 'winning' argument. I'm going to stop cause at this point you're in full on denial mode

Congratulations, you won on the internet! I hope your lover Kobe enjoys watching the Suns take your lottery pick as much as I will.

Sigh. Ok


The argument being made, and why I brought up Kobe at all is not to say Kobe's > Lebron. It's to say the LeDefer criticism had nothing to do with having a "bad" game, but by being passive and deferring to other teammates in pivotal moments of key playoff games in back to back years.


Peterboy seemed to suggest that any criticism of Lebron that was retracted after he won a championship was unwarranted. That's what I argued against. You're the one that was basically like "who cares if LA won 5 chips with him, Kobe shoots a low efficiency LULZ. How could you be a fan?"


what? Since when?


What part of that are you questioning? Gasol has the NBA's 255th best TS% and Dwight Howard is 71st best in the league. Howard is also about 10% better on his raw FG%.


IWMTB19 said:
And Rondo is one of the most inefficient players in the NBA because he's afraid of the free throw line and doesn't have three point range.

Rondo and AI have essentially the same TS% actually but Rondo's FG% is significantly higher.
 

Talon

Member
Can someone explain to me why he uses two spaces between paragraphs?

It's really stressing me out, almost as much as the posts.
 

Blackace

if you see me in a fight with a bear, don't help me fool, help the bear!
Pau's role hasn't been anywhere near D12's role since he was on the Griz
 

Vahagn

Member
Pau's role hasn't been anywhere near D12's role since he was on the Griz

I don't mean career wise. I mean now, this year. You need to get a bucket. Who would be the better offensive option - Dwight or Pau.

This year - who's the better offensive player.
 

Blackace

if you see me in a fight with a bear, don't help me fool, help the bear!
I don't mean career wise. I mean now, this year. You need to get a bucket. Who would be the better offensive option - Dwight or Pau.

This year - who's the better offensive player.

One had a broken back the other has a broken soul
 

Vahagn

Member
There are other advanced stats besides TS%. FG% isn't really a measure of efficiency.

That's a cop out. The only reason you don't jump to answer that is because the numbers are misleading and you know it because you watch the game and know Pau's more skilled.


Dwight is 71st in TS%. Joel Anthony is Far Below Dwight in TS% and so is Daniel Orton for example.

Clearly Dwight is a better offensive player than those centers. KG is also below Dwight on the list, and I doubt most people would say Dwight's better than KG.


The point is, those numbers are misleading sometimes and accurate others. And I'm using people who play the same position. But if you didn't watch the game, and went off that list, or any other statistical list you'd end up with a bunch of incorrect conclusions.
 

Blackace

if you see me in a fight with a bear, don't help me fool, help the bear!
That's a cop out. The only reason you don't jump to answer that is because the numbers are misleading and you know it because you watch the game and know Pau's more skilled.


Dwight is 71st in TS%. Joel Anthony is Far Below Dwight in TS% and so is Daniel Orton for example.

Clearly Dwight is a better offensive player than those centers. KG is also below Dwight on the list, and I doubt most people would say Dwight's better than KG.


The point is, those numbers are misleading sometimes and accurate others. And I'm using people who play the same position. But if you didn't watch the game, and went off that list, or any other statistical list you'd end up with a bunch of incorrect conclusions.

Skilled yes, gifted no

so with the rules of the NBA being gifted is clearly much more of an advantage than being skilled
 

Vahagn

Member
Skilled yes, gifted no

so with the rules of the NBA being gifted is clearly much more of an advantage than being skilled

So down two points you can run a play for KG, Pau, Dwight, or Daniel Orton. Who do you run it for?


I would guess you'd run it for the most skilled guy. KG or Pau. and not the most gifted guy - Dwight.
 

thekad

Banned
You'd probably give it to the guy who is likeliest to score or allow your team to score. It has little to do with skill.

That's a cop out. The only reason you don't jump to answer that is because the numbers are misleading and you know it because you watch the game and know Pau's more skilled.


Dwight is 71st in TS%. Joel Anthony is Far Below Dwight in TS% and so is Daniel Orton for example.

Clearly Dwight is a better offensive player than those centers. KG is also below Dwight on the list, and I doubt most people would say Dwight's better than KG.


The point is, those numbers are misleading sometimes and accurate others. And I'm using people who play the same position. But if you didn't watch the game, and went off that list, or any other statistical list you'd end up with a bunch of incorrect conclusions.

The correct conclusion is that Dwight is a more efficient scorer than KG in their current roles. Size and athleticism are sort of important, btw.
 

Vahagn

Member
The correct conclusion is that Dwight is a more efficient scorer than KG in their current roles. Size and athleticism are sort of important, btw.

Yes he is a more efficient scorer. But efficient doesn't equal better. It just equals more efficient - which really, as it pertains to Dwight, means very little when you're deciding who to go to when you need a bucket.


Edit: Simply Foul him or keep him from dunking and Pau or KG would be the much better option.


I mean, for all of the marveling at how efficient Lebron has been - Durant is still significantly more efficient. Higher TS% on the back of his 3 pt shooting and free throw shooting.
 

thekad

Banned
You're using a specialized case in where the other team is always going to foul. If Dwight shot nothing but free throws all game, he wouldn't have a higher TS% than KG.
 

Vahagn

Member
You're using a specialized case in where the other team is always going to foul. If Dwight shot nothing but free throws all game, he wouldn't have a higher TS% than KG.

Not necessarily. Forget the last possession stuff. Second quarter, other team went on a run and you can run a play for Dwight or KG. The other team has been packing it on all game to take away the dunk. They won't foul. Who do you go to?


I just don't see, in any way, how Dwight could be considered a better offensive player than KG, or even Pau. Or heck, even Pekovic at this point. I think studying statistics helps you understand some fine tuned things, but watching the game is really the only way to understand who's the best or who's better than who, etc.
 

thekad

Banned
Not necessarily. Forget the last possession stuff. Second quarter, other team went on a run and you can run a play for Dwight or KG. The other team has been packing it on all game to take away the dunk. They won't foul. Who do you go to?

Dwight's mere presence on the floor has made the defense change its scheme and opened up other opportunities. That's nice. I wonder if that would have happened if he shot jumpshots okay instead of finishing at the rim at league high efficiency.

I just don't see, in any way, how Dwight could be considered a better offensive player than KG, or even Pau. Or heck, even Pekovic at this point. I think studying statistics helps you understand some fine tuned things, but watching the game is really the only way to understand who's the best or who's better than who, etc.

Good thing we can watch the games and look at statistics instead of just going with whatever makes our favorite player look good.

Pau has been a better offensive player than both oldKG and healthyDwight, btw. At least before he started sucking.
 

Blackace

if you see me in a fight with a bear, don't help me fool, help the bear!
So down two points you can run a play for KG, Pau, Dwight, or Daniel Orton. Who do you run it for?


I would guess you'd run it for the most skilled guy. KG or Pau. and not the most gifted guy - Dwight.

Well I run it for who has the greatest mismatch which 80 percent of the time is D12


Time is a factor as well if not D12 than KG

I don't see scenario where I pick Pau over those 2
 
If we're talking healthy Dwight I would run a PnR with him and try to get him to score off it over every other possible scenario imaginable in the NBA without the game on the line.

If we're arguing who we'd rather post up, Dwight or Pau, I'd say Pau.
 

Blackace

if you see me in a fight with a bear, don't help me fool, help the bear!
If we're talking healthy Dwight I would run a PnR with him and try to get him to score off it over every other possible scenario imaginable in the NBA without the game on the line.

If we're arguing who we'd rather post up, Dwight or Pau, I'd say Pau.
Id take KG in the post over everytime everyday

And a healthy, wants to play for this team because the other star isnt douche D12 over Pau as well
 
Id take KG in the post over everytime everyday

And a healthy, wants to play for this team because the other star isnt douche D12 over Pau as well

We talking prime KG or current KG? Because I wouldn't take current KG over Pau in the post.

Prime KG without question, though.

I'd take last year's D12 over Pau now in the post but prime Pau over D12 (and Pau over D12 right now the way D12 is).
 

Vahagn

Member
If we're talking healthy Dwight I would run a PnR with him and try to get him to score off it over every other possible scenario imaginable in the NBA without the game on the line.

If we're arguing who we'd rather post up, Dwight or Pau, I'd say Pau.


The PnR with Dwight hasn't worked all year. I'm sure part of is it the health, but part of it is the spacing and shooters too. With Nash running the PnR we don't have the 3 point shooters Orlando would.


Also, One of Boston's go to KG Plays is a pick and pop mid range jumper for KG. That's something Dwight can't do. Sure you can run a PnR with Dwight, but if the Defense collapses and takes it away - you almost have to go somewhere else for offense.
 
If we're talking healthy Dwight I would run a PnR with him and try to get him to score off it over every other possible scenario imaginable in the NBA without the game on the line.

If we're arguing who we'd rather post up, Dwight or Pau, I'd say Pau.

600

"stop right there"
 
The PnR with Dwight hasn't worked all year. I'm sure part of is it the health, but part of it is the spacing and shooters too. With Nash running the PnR we don't have the 3 point shooters Orlando would.


Also, One of Boston's go to KG Plays is a pick and pop mid range jumper for KG. That's something Dwight can't do. Sure you can run a PnR with Dwight, but if the Defense collapses and takes it away - you almost have to go somewhere else for offense.

Did the word "try" elude you? Like I said, I'd try that first over everything. That implies if it doesn't work, I'd go somewhere else.

And obviously Dwight's health is why he sucks. He's been the best PnR center for years while Nash has been the best PnR PG. It ain't working cuz Dwight is too stiff and slow in his movements. It's why he's not setting hard screens, he's trying to cheat and get to the spot quicker.
 

Vahagn

Member
Did the word "try" elude you? Like I said, I'd try that first over everything. That implies if it doesn't work, I'd go somewhere else.

And obviously Dwight's health is why he sucks. He's been the best PnR center for years while Nash has been the best PnR PG. It ain't working cuz Dwight is too stiff and slow in his movements. It's why he's not setting hard screens, he's trying to cheat and get to the spot quicker.


I think it has to do with more than his health. the PnR works best with him when there are shooters that space the floor. Shooters we don't have. Especially with Nash running it. I would argue that the Kobe/Pau PnR is MUCH more effective than the Nash/Dwight PnR. It's really not even close.


Either by trapping Nash or having the center stay back and wait for Dwight to roll, you take that play away. Kobe's much better at passing out of the top of a trap because of his size and jumping ability and Pau is able to pop so if a Center just stays near the rim and the defender goes under to stop the Kobe Drive. Pau gets an open 12 footer. Something Dwight won't convert.


Go under the Nash PnR until Nash hits a couple 3's and then fight over it. And the Center stays near the rim and doesn't even go up to hedge on Nash. Dwight can't do anything at that point and it doesn't even warrant anyone rotating over from the weak-side off our shooters.
 
I think it has to do with more than his health. the PnR works best with him when there are shooters that space the floor. Shooters we don't have. Especially with Nash running it. I would argue that the Kobe/Pau PnR is MUCH more effective than the Nash/Dwight PnR. It's really not even close.

It's clearly health. Go watch highlights of Dwight in the PnR the last few years. Go look how hard he screens, how fast he jumps off the screen into scoring position. Now go watch it this year. He's much, much slower, and can't jump.

Go look at his offensive rebound putback rate. Last year he was 4th in the NBA in offensive putbacks. He's nowhere near it this year. It's his worst offensive rebounding year of his career. This has nothing to do with shooters.

The athleticism and quickness isn't there.

edit: Dwight Howard would be getting and 1s on a lot of the fouls he takes. He can't finish because the fouling is affecting his shots for the first time. I'm also wondering if he sometimes loses feelings in his hands because of how easily he loses the ball compared to the past. He already said he sometimes can't feel his legs.
 

Vahagn

Member
It's clearly health. Go watch highlights of Dwight in the PnR the last few years. Go look how hard he screens, how fast he jumps off the screen into scoring position. Now go watch it this year. He's much, much slower, and can't jump.

Go look at his offensive rebound putback rate. Last year he was 4th in the NBA in offensive putbacks. He's nowhere near it this year. It's his worst offensive rebounding year of his career.

The athleticism and quickness isn't there.


That's absolutely true. His lack of offensive rebounding and drop in FT% is the single biggest reason I think he's not averaging 20 points a game. Steve Nash made the pick n Roll work with everyone in Phx as long as they had the shooters.

I think it's a combination of the two essentially. Health and shooters. I still think a Kobe Pau PnR with Nash and another shooter off Ball and Dwight down low for the Pau/Dwight high low lob if defense comes over to Pau is the best play LA can run.
 
That's absolutely true. His lack of offensive rebounding and drop in FT% is the single biggest reason I think he's not averaging 20 points a game. Steve Nash made the pick n Roll work with everyone in Phx as long as they had the shooters.

I think it's a combination of the two essentially. Health and shooters. I still think a Kobe Pau PnR with Nash and another shooter off Ball and Dwight down low for the Pau/Dwight high low lob if defense comes over to Pau is the best play LA can run.

If dwight was healthy, the nash-dwight PnR would be devastating. You put Kobe on the wrong side wing, Ron in the weakside corner, and Pau in the weakside mid-range to post cutting area and what do you do? You commit to Dwight by leaving Kobe open or Pau? MWP too far away and if you don't it's a dunk or if you leave Nash then lol.

Then you mix it up with Kobe-Pau and even Kobe-Nash and Nash-Kobe and ever some Nash-Pau.

But it can't work with Dwight being so weak.

Check this out: http://youtu.be/whE55N9gqaI?t=3m21s

Show me a single screen this season Dwight set like that. I very much doubt it happened.

edit: I also forgot, go watch some Dwight post ups. He would catch and make his move much much faster in the past unless he wanted to draw a double for a kick-out. These days he's so methodical. It's why he sucks.
 

Vahagn

Member
If dwight was healthy, the nash-dwight PnR would be devastating. You put Kobe on the wrong side wing, Ron in the weakside corner, and Pau in the weakside mid-range to post cutting area and what do you do? You commit to Dwight by leaving Kobe open or Pau? MWP too far away and if you don't it's a dunk or if you leave Nash then lol.

Then you mix it up with Kobe-Pau and even Kobe-Nash and Nash-Kobe and ever some Nash-Pau.

But it can't work with Dwight being so weak.

Check this out: http://youtu.be/whE55N9gqaI?t=3m21s

Show me a single screen this season Dwight set like that. I very much doubt it happened.

I know what you're talking about with all his damn brush screens. He barely plants his feet on his screens anymore. Just hip checks fools and it barely works.


If I defended that play, I would have the Center stay near the rim and not even come out with Dwight. Have the guard go under the pick and everyone else stay home on the shooters especially Kobe. Force Nash to hit a couple 3's before you fight over the screen. The way the Dwight PnR's always worked was a pass to the wing, and then an entry pass once Dwight has low post position. But he's been so abysmal in the post or when he gets fouled this year I wouldn't want to do that. I'd rather run that same play with Pau for example.


If Nash is hitting his 3's then you bring over the guy defending MWP to trap Nash and make him pass to MWP. But really, the same thing works with Pau. I just think Pau's ability to finish near the rim + hit free throws + hit that 15 footer gives us more options in the PnR.


And Kobe's better at attacking off the PnR and Nash is better at catch and shoot 3's if someone comes off him.


I dunno, we're splitting hairs. But I think it's no wonder LA is playing much better with the ball in Kobe's hands and having Nash off ball more. Nash's shooting is just incredible to watch and Kobe's good enough as a passer to make it work and much more dangerous driving to the rim off the PnR.
 
There's no argument from me that this year they're better off not screening with Howard since he sucks. I'm arguing about a healthy Dwight. The broken version out there right now is almost Kwame Brown levels at times.

TBH, it feels like he's gotten less athletic/quick the last 2 months. It seemed like he was coming around in December. The Nash-Dwight PnR worked amazing in Nash's 1st game versus the Warriors. Then like a week later Dwight looked old.
 

Vahagn

Member
There's no argument from me that this year they're better off not screening with Howard since he sucks. I'm arguing about a healthy Dwight. The broken version out there right now is almost Kwame Brown levels at times.

TBH, it feels like he's gotten less athletic/quick the last 2 months. It seemed like he was coming around in December. The Nash-Dwight PnR worked amazing in Nash's 1st game versus the Warriors. Then like a week later Dwight looked old.

It wasn't because of Dwight though. It's because people were coming off Kobe that it worked.


There was all this excitement over "put Kobe on the strong side and once someone comes off him, he'll punish them"...Then a few games later people stayed home on Kobe and realized they could defend the Nash/Dwight PnR without bringing a 3rd guy and that play became useless.


Really if you take the guard under the screen to prevent Nash drives and Keep the center near the Rim to prevent Dwight alley oops and layups. That play was dead on it's tracks. If you had the footspeed to trap Nash like Miami, it just kills that play completely.

I still think, if Pau's jumper is falling. the Nash-Pau PnR would be deadly because if you keep your center low to prevent drives Pau just hits that FT line jumper all day. There's a reason why the best PnR big men always had mid range jumpers. Malone, Amare, Boozer, etc.

Edit: On a completely unrelated Note. Lebron's the best player on the planet but people need to look at Durant's stats. He's shooting at a more efficient clip and scoring more points. His rebounds and assists aren't as high as Lebron's but are respectable plus he has Big men he plays with and a PG he plays with. His team also has the better record and plays in a tougher conference.

If Durant gets MVP I won't bat an eye.
 
If Dwight was giving hard screens and the opposing c stayed near the paint, Nash would be getting a shit ton of wide open 12-15 foot shots which is like a layup for him.

The problem is he's setting shit screens and the bigs are still there but Dwight can't turn and go to the rim as fast as he once did.

Health is clearly the problem. Hell, it's the problem for the entire damn team. Pau started slow, was coming back to form, now he's down. Nash missed 1/4 the season. Hill went down, which was just devastating. Even blake missing almost 2 months was bad because Duhon and Morris are fucktards.

The team's health has been their undoing. And helped by bad coaching.
 
Edit: On a completely unrelated Note. Lebron's the best player on the planet but people need to look at Durant's stats. He's shooting at a more efficient clip and scoring more points. His rebounds and assists aren't as high as Lebron's but are respectable plus he has Big men he plays with and a PG he plays with. His team also has the better record and plays in a tougher conference.

If Durant gets MVP I won't bat an eye.

For the year maybe, but nothing durant has done can compare to Lebrons recent stretch. If OKC loses the next head to head this week the MVP is sealed to LBJ.
 

Blackace

if you see me in a fight with a bear, don't help me fool, help the bear!
We talking prime KG or current KG? Because I wouldn't take current KG over Pau in the post.

Prime KG without question, though.

I'd take last year's D12 over Pau now in the post but prime Pau over D12 (and Pau over D12 right now the way D12 is).
For 1 shot?

I would take KG now over Pau now
 

Vahagn

Member
For the year maybe, but nothing durant has done can compare to Lebrons recent stretch. If OKC loses the next head to head this week the MVP is sealed to LBJ.

Right cuz MVP's are based on a 5 game stretch in February.


Don't get it twisted, what Lebron has done these last 5 games is just breath taking. Easily the best 5 games he's ever played in a row, and maybe been done by anyone in a long long time. That being said, Durant's TS% for the season is actually higher than Lebron's even after this recent stretch. Let that sink in to see just how efficient he's been scoring the basketball.


I think if you're an elite level wing player, it's easy to shoot 50%+ from the field:


1) Don't hoist up any quarter ending full court or half court shots (although its a bad basketball play not to do so)

2) Unless you've got a high percentage look...If there are only 5 seconds or less left on the shot clock - pass to someone else and let them take the percentage buster (although it's a bad basketball play to do so)

3) Don't shoot more than 1 contested three a game, and only if the clock is winding down.


If you think about the average 1st option wing player shooting a combination of 3 percentage busters (last second heaves, shot clock beating 30 footers, contested jumpers) and eliminate those 3 shots in a game, you'll go up above 50% more likely then not - although its not necessarily the right basketball play.


Over 20 shots if you're a 45% shooter you'll make 9. If you eliminate those 3 shots you probably won't make you'll end up going 9-17 or 53%.

Going from 45 to 53% shooting is pretty easy, even if it's not the right way to play.
 

Blackace

if you see me in a fight with a bear, don't help me fool, help the bear!
Right cuz MVP's are based on a 5 game stretch in February.


Don't get it twisted, what Lebron has done these last 5 games is just breath taking. Easily the best 5 games he's ever played in a row, and maybe been done by anyone in a long long time. That being said, Durant's TS% for the season is actually higher than Lebron's even after this recent stretch. Let that sink in to see just how efficient he's been scoring the basketball.


I think if you're an elite level wing player, it's easy to shoot 50%+ from the field:


1) Don't hoist up any quarter ending full court or half court shots (although its a bad basketball play not to do so)

2) Unless you've got a high percentage look with 5 seconds left on the shot clock - pass to someone else and let them take the percentage buster (although it's a bad basketball play not to do so)

3) Don't shoot more than 1 contested three a game, and only if the clock is coming down.


If you think about the average 1st option wing player shooting a combination of 3 percentage busters (last second heaves, shot clock beating 30 footers, contested jumpers) and eliminate those 3 shots in a game, you'll go up above 50% more likely then not - although its not necessarily the right basketball play.

You wouldn't be an elite level player if you did any of this regularly
 

Vahagn

Member
You wouldn't be an elite level player if you did any of this regularly

This is a trend I've noticed. I haven't done any objective study on it or anything but I used to remember the best players always going for the ball with 3 seconds left to try to hoist up a shot and now they just turn around and start walking to the bench.


I know I've mentioned this before, but it irks me. It's the wrong basketball play but it gets rewarded on the stat sheet and makes you look like you're playing better when you're not.



Again. I haven't done a study. But I'm sure if someone tracked FG% for shots taken with less than 3 seconds left on the shot clock it would probably be significantly lower than usual. And even though it would be lower than usual, I would also guess that for the elite level shot creators like Melo, KD, Wade, Bron, Kobe etc. that shots they took would convert at a higher % than shots their teammates took when tracked over a large sample size like an entire season.


Basically saying that with the shot clock running down, you want the ball in the hands of your best shot creator unless someone else is completely open. But with "Hero" Ball having such a bad name these days, Studying it would probably also show that those elite level shot creators and makers shoot less of those shots than let's say 5 or 10 years ago even though they convert at a higher clip then their teammates.
 
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