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2013 Feb NBA Season lOT| Controlling it like a man, bruh

T

Truelize

Steroid Distributor
With the clock winding down with the game on the line I give the ball to Kobe still.
I am not a Lakers fan. I have only recently been reformed into not being a Lakers and Kobe hater.

I have not seen a player take that spot away from Kobe yet.

If I am watching a Lakers game, cheering for the other team with less than a minute left and my team has less than a 10 point lead I am not comfortable with that lead. Regardless of how Kobe has played that entire game.
I fear his ability to close. With Bron I'm on the edge of my seat, with KD I'm yelling at the tv to not leave him open. But with Kobe I am still legitimately worried for my team.

I'm not saying that I think Kobe is the guy I would pick first if I was starting a new team. Hells no.
I am just talking about the edge I perceive him to have on everyone else when it comes to crunch time.
 
K

KingKong

Member
Truelize said:
With the clock winding down with the game on the line I give the ball to Kobe still.
I am not a Lakers fan. I have only recently been reformed into not being a Lakers and Kobe hater.

I have not seen a player take that spot away from Kobe yet.
Click to expand...

1344788753457.gif
 
T

Truelize

Steroid Distributor
Haha. I know I'm wrong if you bring up stats.
I dont make comments to prove I'm right. Im an old school fan I guess. Go with gut feelings. And was trying to portray that in the comment.


Edit: yeah Melo might be that guy soon for sure.
 
T

theignoramus

Member
thekad said:
please no one bring up clutch stats

don't hurt him like that
Click to expand...

the beauty of clutch stats is that they make those First Take style perceptions pretty meaningless. Kobe's not even in the top 20 for clutch performance on the season.

the most clutch guys on the season are Ray Allen, D Wade, Kyrie Irving, Tony Parker, Joe Johnson, Al Jefferson, and Ty Lawson.
 
C

Canuck76

Banned
theignoramus said:
the beauty of clutch stats is that they make those First Take style perceptions pretty meaningless. Kobe's not even in the top 20 for clutch performance on the season.

the most clutch guys on the season are Ray Allen, D Wade, Kyrie Irving, Tony Parker, Joe Johnson, Al Jefferson, and Ty Lawson.
Click to expand...

Brandon Roy was one of the most clutch if I'm remembering correctly
 
L

LegendofJoe

Member
Speaking of Ray Allen he and Battier are going to pound teams into submission from behind the arc in the playoffs. That shit won't even be fair.
 
F

Future PhaZe

Member
I'm still forever hating the Grizz for not locking in Battier for more than the measly 3 million per that the heat paid him.

Zero way they chip without dude.
 
J

jjasper

Member
Dark FaZe said:
I'm still forever hating the Grizz for not locking in Battier for more than the measly 3 million per that the heat paid him.

Zero way they chip without dude.
Click to expand...

They tried. It wasn't money that took him to the Heat. He openly stated he wanted to win a title and that the Heat was his best option.
 
M

MooseKing

Banned
Truelize said:
With the clock winding down with the game on the line I give the ball to Kobe still.
I am not a Lakers fan. I have only recently been reformed into not being a Lakers and Kobe hater.

I have not seen a player take that spot away from Kobe yet.

If I am watching a Lakers game, cheering for the other team with less than a minute left and my team has less than a 10 point lead I am not comfortable with that lead. Regardless of how Kobe has played that entire game.
I fear his ability to close. With Bron I'm on the edge of my seat, with KD I'm yelling at the tv to not leave him open. But with Kobe I am still legitimately worried for my team.

I'm not saying that I think Kobe is the guy I would pick first if I was starting a new team. Hells no.
I am just talking about the edge I perceive him to have on everyone else when it comes to crunch time.
Click to expand...

Oh people who ignore the stats.

Imagine if GM's took players based on how they "felt" and not the statistics and how the players produced.

Half the players in the league would be car salesman and Adam Morrison would be starting the all-star game.

Hate to break it to you, Kobe is simply not as clutch as people make him out to be. Don't confuse yourself because you only see him on Sportcenter and not the misses he makes about 60 percent of the time.
 
J

Justin Timberlake

Member
Dark FaZe said:
I'm still forever hating the Grizz for not locking in Battier for more than the measly 3 million per that the heat paid him.

Zero way they chip without dude.
Click to expand...

Thinking about the Heat roster just pisses me off. Its so stacked and broken its ridiculous

Chalmers - Bron - Wade - Battier - Ray - Bosh - Haslem are you serious

and for the 8-11 you can do a lot worse than Cole - Anthony - Shard - Birdman -Miller

Luckily we have Pop so we're probably the only team that has a chance, but if I'm being honest, the odds are slim.
 
P

Psychological Intellect

Banned
Justin Timberlake said:
Thinking about the Heat roster just pisses me off. Its so stacked and broken its ridiculous

Chalmers - Bron - Wade - Battier - Ray - Bosh - Haslem are you serious

and for the 8-11 you can do a lot worse than Cole - Anthony - Shard - Birdman -Miller

Luckily we have Pop so we're probably the only team that has a chance, but if I'm being honest, the odds are slim.
Click to expand...

did you just include Haslem?

Black Mamba said:
I wouldn't say "good" but it has some use.
Click to expand...
Is it bad to judge a player's ability based on PER? I know it's stupid to judge a whole player's game based off stats but how valid/reliable is PER?
 
T

thekad

Banned
J

Justin Timberlake

Member
PER is alright.

Not great....

But alright.

People misuse it a lot though, and don't understand its purpose. Or its flaws. Its a boxscore adjusted for minutes and pace summed up in one number. It doesn't tell you defense, its wonky with assists (very wonky; APER fixes that), uses an archaic method for counting possessions, and doesn't take into account some things that it should but...its still a decent estimation.

I wish bball reference would just add pace adjusted overall stats tho (pace-adjusted ppg/rpg/apg etc)...with or without minutes modifiers. It kinda goes all the way from raw numbers to the advanced ones without the intermediary steps.

Psychological Intellect said:
did you just include Haslem?
Click to expand...

Why wouldn't I?
 
V

Vahagn

Member
theignoramus said:
the beauty of clutch stats is that they make those First Take style perceptions pretty meaningless. Kobe's not even in the top 20 for clutch performance on the season.

the most clutch guys on the season are Ray Allen, D Wade, Kyrie Irving, Tony Parker, Joe Johnson, Al Jefferson, and Ty Lawson.
Click to expand...

And that's why you should realize why those kinda stats are useless.


It's like that stretch earlier this year that Lebron had a couple weeks ago and the only other player to do what he did was...Adrian Dantley. If the statistics you're looking up bring you Adrian Dantley as a comparison, then CLEARLY what you're doing isn't "the best stretch of basketball ever"


And if the "most clutch" are bringing up a list without Lebron, KD, Kobe, or Melo, then you should re-assess the conclusions you're drawing from the stats, instead of belittling other people who don't agree with your conclusions.



People have this asinine theory where they think Stats = Conclusions. As if the conclusions drawn from numbers on a page (often times ridiculously over simplified) are irrefutable.
 
P

Psychological Intellect

Banned
Justin Timberlake said:
PER is alright.

Not great....

But alright.

People misuse it a lot though, and don't understand its purpose. Or its flaws.


Why wouldn't I?
Click to expand...
I love Udonis, but most of the time, he is pretty useless. His defense is alright and I can't count the amount of times he's missed the wide open jumper Wade and Bron give him so I'm not sure why you included him in a post about how the Heat is so stacked.
 
V

Vahagn

Member
theignoramus said:
lol, fall back dude, thats all ive seen you do in here.
Click to expand...

just like every game you've seen Kobe post up the Lakers lose right?


Maybe your two or three experiences shouldn't so consistently be extrapolated and over-generalized...just a thought.



Edit: If you make the mistake of quoting a statistic, and then incorrectly drawing a conclusion from the statistic and pretending that said statistic = said conclusion. I'm going to call you out on that level of over simplification.


You said "the most clutch guys" this season are. That's a conclusion incorrectly drawn from a stat. What you should have said were "The guys who perform best based on this and this stat are" You drew the leap to that incorrect conclusion from some stat (last 5 minutes, last minute, whatever) that you then equated with the self-same conclusion. If you keep doing that, and I call you out on it, don't get all hurt.
 
T

thekad

Banned
And if the "most clutch" are bringing up a list without Lebron, KD, Kobe, or Melo, then you should re-assess the conclusions you're drawing from the stats, instead of belittling other people who don't agree with your conclusions.
Click to expand...

Guys, shut up. If what actually happened on the court doesn't match Vag's preconceived notions, then y'all should reassess mathematics because he's right.
 
V

Vahagn

Member
thekad said:
Guys, shut up. If what actually happened on the court doesn't match Vag's preconceived notions, then y'all should reassess mathematics because he's right.
Click to expand...

Who said anything about questioning math? You're being dense in all honesty.


Data doesn't equal conclusions. The Math is just data, whatever conclusions you draw from that data needs to be rationally argued. But you don't do that. You literally skip the step where you have to defend your conclusions and you go straight to conclusion. I call you out on your 3rd grade level arguments and you get mad, I'll be more sensitive next time.
 
J

Justin Timberlake

Member
Psychological Intellect said:
I love Udonis, but most of the time, he is pretty useless. His defense is alright and I can't count the amount of times he's missed the wide open jumper Wade and Bron give him so I'm not sure why you included him in a post about how the Heat is so stacked.
Click to expand...

6.3 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 1.1 apg in 27.3 mpg on 46%

Those are Udonis' numbers in last year's Celtics series. Thats pretty freaking good for your 7th guy. Especially since Bosh was hurt and they needed every one of those rebounds.

idk man. He probably gives less fucks this year but I believe in him in the playoffs. UD has been a good role player his entire career.
 
T

Truelize

Steroid Distributor
MooseKing said:
Oh people who ignore the stats.

Imagine if GM's took players based on how they "felt" and not the statistics and how the players produced.

Half the players in the league would be car salesman and Adam Morrison would be starting the all-star game.

Hate to break it to you, Kobe is simply not as clutch as people make him out to be. Don't confuse yourself because you only see him on Sportcenter and not the misses he makes about 60 percent of the time.
Click to expand...


Stats are never ignored.
No successful GM has ever relied solely on how they "felt" but the best definitely include it in their evaluations.

I can't picture a world where Adam Morrison is an allstar. I have dreamed about it seeing I am a Zag fan. But could never picture it. Neither can I picture NBA rosters void of half their players so they could pursue fortune in the automobile industry. League pass would not be worth it if that happened though. Haha.

No need to break anything to me. We were never that close. I'm sure you will find other guys to talk about basketball with. It's not me, it's you.
And I am very confused now. Kobe is on another show other than Sportscenter? Wow. What a busy guy. Hope he still has time for his kids.

Game on the line? Kobe is still the most dangerous.

I consider experience to be very valuable in those situations. And I haven't seen a math formula that calculates that yet.

It is just my opinion. Not one I am even emotionally attached to. Just an opinion.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Al's production down the stretch in close games is pretty ridiculous and noticeable even if you don't believe in field goal percentage in close games or whatever for some reason.

Is PER a good stat?
Click to expand...

It's OK.

It's box-scored based and there aren't many good box-score stats for defense though so terrible defensive players (like JaVale McGee) can get really overrated by PER while some great defensive players (like KG) get underrated by it.
 
T

theignoramus

Member
Vahagn said:
You said "the most clutch guys" this season are. That's a conclusion incorrectly drawn from a stat. What you should have said were "The guys who perform best based on this and this stat are" You drew the leap to that incorrect conclusion from some stat (last 5 minutes, last minute, whatever) that you then equated with the self-same conclusion. If you keep doing that, and I call you out on it, don't get all hurt.
Click to expand...

so what's the correct conclusion then?

Wade, Parker, Jefferson,Irving and Ty Lawson are at, above or just under 50% shooting in crunchtime in 50 or more attempts. Lebron is 45%. Kobe hovers between 39 and 45%,no matter what adjustment you make for time or point differential. (ahead/behind/tie game)


I think I already know your answer...guys who are more celebrated and get more airtime on sportscenter should be given a statistical boost.
 
V

Vahagn

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Al's production down the stretch in close games is pretty ridiculous and noticeable even if you don't believe in field goal percentage in close games or whatever for some reason.
Click to expand...

Let's say you're looking at a stat that has FG% in the final 5 minutes of a close game, with a minimum of X attempts.


The correct conclusion to draw from that statistic would be:


"these guys, so far this season, have shot the highest FG% in the final 5 minutes of a close game with a minimum of X attempts"


The incorrect conclusion, taken from a leap of faith with little to no rationalization would be:

"These guys are the most clutch guys in the game"


I literally have no idea how this is even being argued.
 
T

thekad

Banned
Vahagn said:
Let's say you're looking at a stat that has FG% in the final 5 minutes of a close game, with a minimum of X attempts.


The correct conclusion to draw from that statistic would be:


"these guys, so far this season, have shot the highest FG% in the final 5 minutes of a close game with a minimum of X attempts"


The incorrect conclusion, taken from a leap of faith with little to no rationalization would be:

"These guys are the most clutch guys in the game"

I literally have no idea how this is even being argued.
Click to expand...

Vag has made the first step! Only a little bit further now.
 
T

Truelize

Steroid Distributor
theignoramus said:
so what's the correct conclusion then?

Wade, Parker, Jefferson,Irving and Ty Lawson are at, above or just under 50% shooting in crunchtime in 50 or more attempts. Lebron is 45%. Kobe hovers between 39 and 45%,no matter what adjustment you make for time or point differential. (ahead/behind/tie game)


I think I already know your answer...guys who are more celebrated and get more airtime on sportscenter should be given a statistical boost.
Click to expand...


Not looking to battle here. Just questions to understand the data.

What is crunch time? Cause I don't see it possible that these players have taken 50 game winners.

Do the stats show a declining percentage as the amount of attempts increase?

I understand where Vahagn is coming from. Statistics are great but they are open to interpretation. And when making a statement that uses a statistic that statement has to be made within the boundaries of the statistic being used. Meaning you must refer to it in your statement and not include any other data or opinion.
 
F

Future PhaZe

Member
Psychological Intellect said:
Is PER a good stat?
Click to expand...

It's a good stat. It needs a degree of context, but people who are completely uninformed about a player shouldn't use stats for the sake of an argument or judgement anyway.

I've been more intrigued by offensive rating and defensive rating lately. The eye test says Kyrie is phenomenal, but statistics say he's basically Kobes clone in regards to being ass on defense and not being as efficient offensively as you'd think.
 
V

Vahagn

Member
theignoramus said:
so what's the correct conclusion then?

Wade, Parker, Jefferson,Irving and Ty Lawson are at, above or just under 50% shooting in crunchtime in 50 or more attempts. Lebron is 45%. Kobe hovers between 39 and 45%,no matter what adjustment you make for time or point differential. (ahead/behind/tie game)


I think I already know your answer...guys who are more celebrated and get more airtime on sportscenter should be given a statistical boost.
Click to expand...


There are a million and one ways to take you showing a list of FG% and then leaping to "most clutch guys in the game" and show that the leap to that conclusions is flawed.


Let's conveniently take all of the other elements of a basketball game out, and simply oversimplify it on just FG% just for the sake of argument. Even though that's a huge mistake by you. If you want to argue that those guys have converted at the highest clip so far this season. I agree with you. That's a valid conclusion to make from that data. But if you want to argue that, based on the data, those guys are going to convert at the highest clip from here on out. That's a lot more tricky.


I have no idea whether Ty Lawson will be in the top echelon of "clutch guys" by your definition in the next 30 games because you're using a very small sample size so just a few misses knocks him down a bunch of spots I imagine. Also, if he (or anyone else on your list) is performing much better this year, than in previous years then it's logical to conclude they will probably regress to the mean, and won't be as good in the final 25-30 games of the season right?


There's just so many ways to attack the idea that "Highest FG% in final 5 minutes" = "most clutch guy in the game"...It's an over simplified conclusion.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Vahagn said:
Let's say you're looking at a stat that has FG% in the final 5 minutes of a close game, with a minimum of X attempts.


The correct conclusion to draw from that statistic would be:


"these guys, so far this season, have shot the highest FG% in the final 5 minutes of a close game with a minimum of X attempts"


The incorrect conclusion, taken from a leap of faith with little to no rationalization would be:

"These guys are the most clutch guys in the game"


I literally have no idea how this is even being argued.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure it's mostly fair to take the second conclusion from the first conclusion. Some things could be off, but the fact that a player is taking and making a lot of shots in crunch time would suggest that his team thinks he's clutch and that he is clutch. Irving and Al get almost every touch down the stretch and they convert a high rate.

The Jazz also go 4-5 in crunch time since none of our PGs can score and it's not like Irving's teammates are good at all either so the possible explanation of "he's getting easier looks!" or whatever doesn't really apply.

I've been more intrigued by offensive rating and defensive rating lately. The eye test says Kyrie is phenomenal, but statistics say he's basically Kobes clone in regards to being ass on defense and not being as efficient offensively as you'd think.
Click to expand...

Individual DRtg takes defensive rebounding and blocks and steals and teammate quality too much into account. Defensive on/off is a lot better (though that has to be compared with the on/off numbers of teammates each player usually plays with)
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Dark FaZe said:
It's a good stat. It needs a degree of context, but people who are completely uninformed about a player shouldn't use stats for the sake of an argument or judgement anyway.

I've been more intrigued by offensive rating and defensive rating lately. The eye test says Kyrie is phenomenal, but statistics say he's basically Kobes clone in regards to being ass on defense and not being as efficient offensively as you'd think.
Click to expand...

It's pretty well accepted that defensive rating is a shit statistic.
 
G

giri

Member
Vahagn said:
Let's say you're looking at a stat that has FG% in the final 5 minutes of a close game, with a minimum of X attempts.


The correct conclusion to draw from that statistic would be:


"these guys, so far this season, have shot the highest FG% in the final 5 minutes of a close game with a minimum of X attempts"


The incorrect conclusion, taken from a leap of faith with little to no rationalization would be:

"These guys are the most clutch guys in the game"


I literally have no idea how this is even being argued.
Click to expand...

ahahahahahahaahah

Oh vag.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Vahagn said:
Let's say you're looking at a stat that has FG% in the final 5 minutes of a close game, with a minimum of X attempts.


The correct conclusion to draw from that statistic would be:


"these guys, so far this season, have shot the highest FG% in the final 5 minutes of a close game with a minimum of X attempts"


The incorrect conclusion, taken from a leap of faith with little to no rationalization would be:

"These guys are the most clutch guys in the game"


I literally have no idea how this is even being argued.
Click to expand...

First of all, the first quote is a statement of fact, not an inference or judgment statement.

Second of all, it is perfectly valid to come to a conclusion based on the evidence as long as the data is not manipulated and there is enough of a sample to make a reasonable conclusion.
 
V

Vahagn

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I'm pretty sure it's mostly fair to take the second conclusion from the first conclusion. Some things could be off, but the fact that a player is taking and making a lot of shots in crunch time would suggest that his team thinks he's clutch and that he is clutch. Irving and Al get almost every touch down the stretch and they convert a high rate.

The Jazz also go 4-5 in crunch time since none of our PGs can score and it's not like Irving's teammates are good at all either so the possible explanation of "he's getting easier looks!" or whatever doesn't really apply.



Individual DRtg takes defensive rebounding and blocks and steals and teammate quality too much into account. Defensive on/off is a lot better (though that has to be compared with the on/off numbers of teammates each player usually plays with)
Click to expand...


Not at all. When you talk about the best rebounders in the game. Year after year the same people show up. When you talk about the best scorers in the game, year after year the same people show up. When you talk about "most clutch guy in the game" at any point in the season and from different seasons you have different guys on that "FG% in last 5 minutes of a game"


Unless you think people forget how to be clutch, or learn it all of a sudden, and that regular season level pressure against a bottom feeder is the same as a ECF game or a Finals game, the statistic is a shoddy statistic. That's the entire point.


That's why I used the Adrian Dantley example. If you've got a 5 game stretch and the only guy to do what you did was Adrian Dantley you're probably making a mistake by saying "that 5 game stretch is the best basketball ever". Same with a statistic that brings up guys who haven't performed year in and year out in any kind of tense environment and saying they're more clutch then a guy who scored 40 or 50 in a Conference Finals Game or a Finals game and have performed at high level pressures year in and year out.
 
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