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[reilo]

An exception does not define the rule.

I'm sorry that the clutch statistics proclaim Kobe is not what is reasonably deemed to be a top clutch player.

However, Kobe's "clutch play" also might be an exception and not an absolute statement of skills and ability to win games.

 

[thekad]

Not at all. When you talk about the best rebounders in the game. Year after year the same people show up. When you talk about the best scorers in the game, year after year the same people show up. When you talk about "most clutch guy in the game" at any point in the season and from different seasons you have different guys on that "FG% in last 5 minutes of a game"

Do you think there's a reason for the volatility that doesn't have to do with Kobe Bryant?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Adrian Dantley was a black hole and passed the ball out to his teammates at the end of the shot clock so they would have to miss the shots instead of him. I don't think LeBron is doing that at all right now since the Heat are actually dominating whereas Dantley's Jazz were not good.

The Lakers have been terrible in crunch time as well this year whereas the Jazz have been great and Jefferson and Irving have been clutch players for years, they just play in small markets.

 

[Vahagn]

An exception does not define the rule.

I'm sorry that the clutch statistics proclaim Kobe is not what is reasonably deemed to be a top clutch player.

However, Kobe's "clutch play" also might be an exception and not an absolute statement of skills and ability to win games.

5 minutes left in a close game. You think Ty Lawson or Al Jefferson would be more productive, the rest of this season, then Lebron James or Kevin Durant?


Say yes.

 

[theignoramus]

Not looking to battle here. Just questions to understand the data.

What is crunch time? Cause I don't see it possible that these players have taken 50 game winners.

Do the stats show a declining percentage as the amount of attempts increase?

I understand where Vahagn is coming from. Statistics are great but they are open to interpretation. And when making a statement that uses a statistic that statement has to be made within the boundaries of the statistic being used. Meaning you must refer to it in your statement and not include any other data or opinion.

I dont understand why Vag is moving the goal posts, it was obvious we were talking about this season, not the last 5 or 10 years of the nba.
Anyway, crunch time sats are here:http://stats.nba.com/leaguePlayerClutch.html


all it is a measure of how well a guy is shooting in the last few minutes of a game. ahead, behind, tied, whatever. you can adjust the time, the point margin, all kind of stuff.

The only real asterisk with this stuff is that you have to know the players situation to figure out what kind of shots hes getting. Like I said earlier, Ray Allen is huge in the clutch. But he's also getting some wide open looks, Ive seen with my own eyes how dudes will help off him (of all people) and give him time to catch and shoot on a great look at the basket.

Joe Johson and Kyrie go at their defender in one on one matchups, so the degree of difficulty is higher for them.

 

[giri]

An exception does not define the rule.

I'm sorry that the clutch statistics proclaim Kobe is not what is reasonably deemed to be a top clutch player.

However, Kobe's "clutch play" also might be an exception and not an absolute statement of skills and ability to win games.

NO NONONONONONONONONO

KOBE DA BESTEST EVEREST IN ALL WAYS EVER. EST.

AND I'M GOING TO STOMP MY FEET AND POUT UNTIL YOU ALL AGREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.

KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE

Signed, Vag.

 

[Red Blaster]

when you really get down to it, Kobe's not even a Top 8 all-time SG

Reggie Miller is better than him

 

[reilo]

5 minutes left in a close game. You think Ty Lawson or Al Jefferson would be more productive, the rest of this season, then Lebron James or Kevin Durant?


Say yes.

You're making a future inference based on historical evidence (aka probability), which is different than stating a conclusion based on historical evidence.

 

[Tom Penny]

when you really get down to it, Kobe's not even a Top 8 all-time SG

Reggie Miller is better than him

Kobe is the best sharpshooter in the history of the NBA.

 

[LegendofJoe]

I like the defensive win share statistic. It doesn't penalize good defensive players that happen to have poor defensive teammates.

 

[Black Mamba]

So Hibbert and Lee suspended but not Curry? Wat

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

It's kind of lame for Al that he doesn't get the same insane overhyping that other players as skilled as him get.

If this Jazz team was in a big market, ESPN wouldn't shut up about skilled and clutch he is.

But no one ever talks about him since no one is following the Jazz

I mean, he's massively flawed, but so are so are a lot of other guys who get propped up as great for their skill and clutchness.

 

[reilo]

It's kind of lame for Al that he doesn't get the same insane overhyping that other players as skilled as him get.

If this Jazz team was in a big market, ESPN wouldn't shut up about skilled and clutch he is.

But no one ever talks about him since no one is following the Jazz

I mean, he's massively flawed, but so are so are a lot of other guys who get propped up as great for their skill and clutchness.

Even Roy didn't get his due respect in the media for his insane end-of-game heroics like some other players have.

 

[giri]

It's kind of lame for Al that he doesn't get the same insane overhyping that other players as skilled as him get.

If this Jazz team was in a big market, ESPN wouldn't shut up about skilled and clutch he is.

But no one ever talks about him since no one is following the Jazz

I mean, he's massively flawed, but so are so are a lot of other guys who get propped up as great for their skill and clutchness.

It's also partially because he's holding Kanter back. And could be traded very soon.

 

[diehard]

I did a whole writeup once with stats about how Kobe isn't clutch and everyone ignored it.

it hurt.

 

[Zep]

I did a whole writeup once with stats about how Kobe isn't clutch and everyone ignored it.

Trax teach you nothing?!

NBA-GAF -- We don't do writeups.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

It's also partially because he's holding Kanter back. And could be traded very soon.

Overall, he's not that great because he doesn't defend at all.

But he has a lot of qualities that get praised hugely in other players but he's ignored because of the small market stuff and that is kind of lame.

 

[Vahagn]

You're making a future inference based on historical evidence (aka probability), which is different than stating a conclusion based on historical evidence.

Sure. But stating a correct conclusion is different than stating an incorrect one. If you believe that Al Jefferson is more clutch player than Lebron James, you should be willing to say that he's going to continue to be more clutch right? Otherwise, he's not a more clutch player then Lebron at all. He's just shot the ball a little more efficiently in specific situations with a very very very small sample size. And he'll probably regress to his past season mean. You've just decided to define that as "more clutch"...I disagree with your conclusion.


Assuming they're both healthy, I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, that Dwight Howard will get more rebounds per game than Lebron James because he's a better rebounder.

Assuming they're both healthy, I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, that Lebron James will score more points than Al Jefferson for the remainder of the season because he's a better and more prolific scorer.

 

[Black Mamba]

It's kind of lame for Al that he doesn't get the same insane overhyping that other players as skilled as him get.

If this Jazz team was in a big market, ESPN wouldn't shut up about skilled and clutch he is.

But no one ever talks about him since no one is following the Jazz

I mean, he's massively flawed, but so are so are a lot of other guys who get propped up as great for their skill and clutchness.

Why should he? Jefferson isn't special. he also shoots the same in the clutch as any other time during the game. He plays almost the same in the clutch as any other time of the game.

 

[reilo]

Sure. But stating a correct conclusion is different than stating an incorrect one. If you believe that Al Jefferson is more clutch player than Lebron James, you should be willing to say that he's going to continue to be more clutch right?


Assuming they're both healthy, I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, that Dwight Howard will get more rebounds per game than Lebron James because he's a better rebounder.

Assuming they're both healthy, I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, that Lebron James will score more points than Al Jefferson for the remainder of the season because he's a better and more prolific scorer.

lol what the fuck no.

"Al Jefferson, statistically, has been more clutch than Lebron James in this sample of 34 games" does not mean you have to also believe "Al Jefferson will continue to be more clutch than Lebron James in the future".

You're arguing a strawman.

 

[Black Mamba]

Jefferson hasn't even been more clutch than Lebron to begin with. smh

 

[Vahagn]

lol what the fuck no.

"Al Jefferson, statistically, has been more clutch than Lebron James in this sample of 34 games" does not mean you have to also believe "Al Jefferson will continue to be more clutch than Lebron James in the future".

You're arguing a strawman.

Again, you're ignoring all aspects of basketball and over simplifying it to just FG%, but fine.


Then the correct conclusion is "Al Jefferson has been more clutch in this sample size than Lebron James"


That's not the same as "Al Jefferson is a more clutch player than Lebron James"...those are wildly different conclusions.


And let's remember. that this is often times argued in the context if "if you could have a guy to shoot the final shot who would it be". That's what Truelize was arguing. If you say that you can't use current "clutch" stats to prognosticate about the future, then why do you guys even bring that stat up in the first place?



That's just silly.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Why should he? Jefferson isn't special. he also shoots the same in the clutch as any other time during the game. He plays almost the same in the clutch as any other time of the game.

Yeah, but the volume is higher so it counts more or something.

You can make an argument that he doesn't actually play better in the clutch and that he just gets more shot attempts, but that would still be highly praised in a larger market.

And while he's not that good overall, his skill level can be considered pretty special for a center.

 

[reilo]

The only silly one here is you. Statistically, if over the same number of games -- 50, 100, 200, 5000 -- Al Jefferson produces better clutch time numbers than Lebron James, then claiming that Al Jefferson has been more clutch than Lebron is a fair assessment over the course of those games.

Kyrie Irving is a young player. He hasn't played the same number of games, so the data is only conclusive to the data available.

In other words, context matters. The context of claiming that Irving is more clutch than Lebron is over a sample of this past year. That is not the same as stating that Kyrie Irving will finish as a more clutch player for the remainder of their careers.

Jesus, why is this so difficult?

 

[giri]

The only silly one here is you. Statistically, if over the same number of games -- 50, 100, 200, 5000 -- Al Jefferson produces better clutch time numbers than Lebron James, then claiming that Al Jefferson has been more clutch than Lebron is a fair assessment over the course of those games.

Kyrie Irving is a young player. He hasn't played the same number of games, so the data is only conclusive to the data available.

In other words, context matters. The context of claiming that Irving is more clutch than Lebron is over a sample of this past year. That is not the same as stating that Kyrie Irving will finish as a more clutch player for the remainder of their careers.

Jesus, why is this so difficult?

Why are you bothering, it's vag, literally pointless to bother.

 

[Black Mamba]

Yeah, but the volume is higher so it counts more or something.

You can make an argument that he doesn't actually play better in the clutch and that he just gets more shot attempts, but that would still be highly praised in a larger market.

And while he's not that good overall, his skill level can be considered pretty special for a center.

Except Lebron has taken more clutch shots this year.

Of course market plays a role, it always does. But there is nothing special about Jefferson. Just 2 years ago everyone called him an empty stats whore. Now that he plays with decent players he's an amazing player?

David Lee is more skilled and efficient and didn't get much hype outside of NYC.



Also the entire argument about clutch is stupid. There is no real statistical evidence that anyone is clutch. The entire conversation is always bullshit. Personally, I still don't buy into the idea of clutch at all.

 

[Vahagn]

The only silly one here is you. Statistically, if over the same number of games -- 50, 100, 200, 5000 -- Al Jefferson produces better clutch time numbers than Lebron James, then claiming that Al Jefferson has been more clutch than Lebron is a fair assessment over the course of those games.

Kyrie Irving is a young player. He hasn't played the same number of games, so the data is only conclusive to the data available.

In other words, context matters. The context of claiming that Irving is more clutch than Lebron is over a sample of this past year. That is not the same as stating that Kyrie Irving will finish as a more clutch player for the remainder of their careers.

Jesus, why is this so difficult?

Because, aside from the fact that you keep making a dramatic over simplification of "clutch" as just FG% in last 5 minutes; meaningful statistics and information allow you to figure out things in the future or at the very least make educated guesses. And you're essentially telling me that the statistic you keep identifying as "clutch" has little to no value in figuring out what's going to happen in the future. Yet you continue to hold on to it as a defining piece of data.


Let's agree then, from here on out, to NEVER, Ever, Ever bring up that statistic in an argument of "who would you trust to shoot the last shot" again, because as you said, that statistic has little to no value in figuring out what will happen in the future.


You can tell me all you want that Al Jefferson, so far this season, has shot a higher FG% in close games in the last 5 minutes or less than Lebron James or Kevin Durant. What you can't tell me, based on your own arguments, is that Al Jefferson is a more trustworthy player in the final 5 minutes of a close game tomorrow, or next week, or this post season. And thus, you haven't been able to argue who is in fact a more clutch player. Or who should or shouldn't get the last shot...basically the entire point of that argument.

 

[MorisUkunRasik]

You guys fell into the Vahagn hole again? I'm not mad, just disappointed.

 

[reilo]

I have not made any such argument, so I don't know who this "you" is that you are arguing with. I'm only defending someone's right to make a conclusion based on non-manipulated data -- which you vehemently argued against in such a ridiculous manner.

I was simply pointing out that you have no fucking clue what a conclusion is and how one comes to it. Arguing that a conclusion based on available data somehow is factually wrong is... well, factually wrong and a stupid fucking opinion of yours.

Understand what I'm arguing, and quit yelling at the scarecrow in the field.

 

[giri]

You guys fell into the Vahagn hole again? I'm not mad, just disappointed.

+1

Sometimes i wonder if its DY's alt troll account.

 

[reilo]

+1

Sometimes i wonder if its DY's alt troll account.

Dy is way too lazy to be single, what makes you think that he'd give a shit to make a Laker troll account?

 

[Knux-Future]

Its like if you juts mention the word Kobe with something negative or less than flattering, we will get pages upon pages of pointless back and forths.


like clockwork

 

[Vahagn]

I have not made any such argument, so I don't know who this "you" is that you are arguing with. I'm only defending someone's right to make a conclusion based on non-manipulated data -- which you vehemently argued against in such a ridiculous manner.

I was simply pointing out that you have no fucking clue what a conclusion is and how one comes to it. Arguing that a conclusion based on available data somehow is factually wrong is... well, factually wrong and a stupid fucking opinion of yours.

Understand what I'm arguing, and quit yelling at the scarecrow in the field.

This is wrong, and I'd explain why but - what's the use.

Its like if you juts mention the word Kobe with something negative or less than flattering, we will get pages upon pages of pointless back and forths.


like clockwork

I argued Lebron and Al Jefferson. If I was arguing Kobe, you'd bet Reilo would be all "Hell yes Al Jefferson would do much better than Kobe"...but since it was Lebron, he stepped back and thought a little.

 

[Truelize]

I got lost at the top of the page. This conversation reads like several people are completely agreeing with each regarding how stats are allowed to be used. But I'm not sure if that is seen by others.

 

[MorisUkunRasik]

I got lost at the top of the page. This conversation reads like several people are completely agreeing with each regarding how stats are allowed to be used. But I'm not sure if that is seen by others.

It reads like a transcript of two girls one cup.

 

[reilo]

This is wrong, and I'd explain why but - what's the use.

Friend A: "Hey man, you should really try these cookies by Brand X. It's the most amazing thing in the world! I have eaten over a thousand of them!"

Friend B: "Hey, I tried those cookies by Brand X. I ate 10 of them. I didn't think it was the most amazing thing in the world and thought it was kind of bland, so therefore I doubt I will continue eating them."

Friend A: "Dude, you are so wrong. You gotta eat 990 more of them to really think that the taste is amazing!"

 

[Psychological Intellect]

Another sick LeBron pregame dunk.

Also

The league's reigning three-time MVP said Tuesday he never intended for his acrobatic dunking display in the Heat's layup line to become a potential distraction that apparently has given some critics a chance to slam him.
James has been executing contest-worthy dunks during warm-ups, but has been unwilling throughout his career to participate in the league's dunk contest during All-Star Weekend despite pressure from fans and former players.
"Maybe I should stop because it's making a lot of people mad about what I do," James said after he scored a season-high 40 points and had a career-high 16 assists in Tuesday's double-overtime win against Sacramento. "They're like, 'Well, if you can do it in warm-ups, why don't you [want to] be in the dunk contest?' Stop it.'"

 

[pilonv1]

Lee getting suspended is pathetic

 

[Liquidsnake]

when you really get down to it, Kobe's not even a Top 8 all-time SG

Reggie Miller is better than him

How can you make a statement like that?

This is one of the reasons this thread is tough to contribute to on a regular basis.

 

[Jeff-DSA]

Lee getting suspended is pathetic

No kidding. He didn't throw any actual punches, just the shove, right?

 

[Truelize]

No kidding. He didn't throw any actual punches, just the shove, right?

From what I saw yes just the shove. I don't even think he pushed into the group of players.

 

[pilonv1]

Hibbert also got one game, with Stevenson, Klay and Steph getting fines. smh NBA

Fast Break ‏@GSWFastBreak

NBA Exec VP Stu Jackson still serving a lifetime ban from meaningful NBA employment following his run with the Vancouver Griz.

Shots fired

 

[Vahagn]

Friend A: "Hey man, you should really try these cookies by Brand X. It's the most amazing thing in the world! I have eaten over a thousand of them!"

Friend B: "Hey, I tried those cookies by Brand X. I ate 10 of them. I didn't think it was the most amazing thing in the world and thought it was kind of bland, so therefore I doubt I will continue eating them."

Friend A: "Dude, you are so wrong. You gotta eat 990 more of them to really think that the taste is amazing!"

Ok. Here's why you're wrong.



There's a hidden incorrect Premise that you're ignoring. That's what makes your conclusion wrong.


Premise A: Al Jefferson has shot a higher FG% in the last 5 minutes of a close game in the 2012-2013 NBA Season than Lebron James (Correct premise based on Data)

Premise B: If Player A shot a higher FG% in the last 5 minutes of a close game in the 2012-2013 NBA season than Player B. Player A is always more clutch than Player B. (Incorrect Hidden Premise needed to be true for following Conclusion to be True)

Conclusion: Al Jefferson is a more clutch player than Lebron James.



You made a leap between FG% to Clutch from your premise to your conclusion that you haven't explained via another Premise. That often times leads to hidden assumptions/premises that are incorrect, thus the conclusion is incorrect.

 

[Blackace]

5 minutes left in a close game. You think Ty Lawson or Al Jefferson would be more productive, the rest of this season, then Lebron James or Kevin Durant?


Say yes.

Build the straw men and they will come

 

[giri]

No kidding. He didn't throw any actual punches, just the shove, right?

His ban will be for instigating the whole incident.

Hibberts for retaliation and escalation.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

when you really get down to it, Kobe's not even a Top 8 all-time SG

Reggie Miller is better than him

Not to mention Bill Sharman.

 

[reilo]

Premise A: Al Jefferson has shot a higher FG% in the last 5 minutes of a close game in the 2012-2013 NBA Season than Lebron James (Correct premise based on Data)

Premise B: If Player A shot a higher FG% in the last 5 minutes of a close game in the 2012-2013 NBA season than Player B. Player A is always more clutch than Player B. (Incorrect Hidden Premise needed to be true for following Conclusion to be True)

Conclusion: Al Jefferson is a more clutch player than Lebron James.

I found your strawman and something that nobody ever concluded.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Another sick LeBron pregame dunk.

Also

Just like LeBron to pull through when nothing is on the line.

 

[Vahagn]

Build the straw men and they will come

How is that a straw man? If you tell me that Player A is a better rebounder than Player B, I can derive a conclusion that says "If both are healthy, Player A should get more rebounds than player B for the remainder of the season"

If your premise was true, and the data was accurate, then the conclusion should also be true.


If you tell me that Player A is a more clutch player than player B, I can derive a conclusion that says "If both are healthy, Player A should be more clutch in the remainder of the season than player B". If your premise is wrong, because your data has a really small sample size for example, or because the conclusion you reached from your own data is flawed, then my own conclusion would be flawed too.

I found your strawman and something that nobody ever concluded.

That wasn't an "always" as in time. It was an always as in comparison. If you're viewing it as a time thing, then you can take the word out and it still makes the same point about the hidden assumption/incorrect premise.


It's like saying

Premise 1: Brenda collects Welfare


Conclusion: Brenda is lazy


The only way for that to be true, is for the hidden premise of "All people who collect welfare are lazy" to be true. Otherwise the conclusion is flawed. So the data is correct "Brenda collects welfare" but the conclusion isn't because of the faulty second premise.

 

[reilo]

It's a strawman because nobody ever said anything like that!