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2014 Australian Government Budget |OT| Throw some debt on the barbie

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Never has a labor leader had an effect on me equivalent enough to how certain presidents affect Americans. This is politics on a new level for me.

You weren't old enough for Keating and Hawke then? They were great Australian leaders.

Charismatic, well spoken and extremely smart. They would put any of the leaders from either major party to shame since Kevin07.

If they were around when I could vote, they would have got mine.
 

Jintor

Member
Never has a labor leader had an effect on me equivalent enough to how certain presidents affect Americans. This is politics on a new level for me.

Gilllard's misogynist speech was decent, but didn't have the almost Sorkin level ending of this one
 
Sure.

1) If Labor does force a DD , it will count against them: people don't like going to the polls, and that can easily be framed as interfering with a duly elected government.
2) Its likely that a majority of people actually do buy into the household buget / tighter belts rhetoric on some level. It resonates with the financial understanding that most people have. As long as that can be sold people will bear it , because they believe it is necessary.

On the latter point, it will be interesting to see the next Newspoll results. Howard was nearly ousted for the perception that he'd lied about the GST (never, ever), but the Coalition pulled out a last minute save when the Tampa showed up and the election became about "we decide who comes to our country, and on what terms".

If the general feeling in the electorate is one of betrayal, I think that Abbott would need a pretty flashy trump card with which to distract the punters on election day.
 

hidys

Member
Never has a labor leader had an effect on me equivalent enough to how certain presidents affect Americans. This is politics on a new level for me.

It really was very inspiring.

I've changed my mind, I hope Labor vote against the budget in the Senate.
 

pupcoffee

Member
You weren't old enough for Keating and Hawke then? They were great Australian leaders.

Charismatic, well spoken and extremely smart. They would put any of the leaders from either major party to shame since Kevin07.

If they were around when I could vote, they would have got mine.

Yeah, too young for them. I wonder if my age group as whole will start to care and feel more about politics. Like, for once a politician is affecting my daily morale. This is nuts, I know. Will be critical as best I can.
 

hidys

Member
You weren't old enough for Keating and Hawke then? They were great Australian leaders.

Charismatic, well spoken and extremely smart. They would put any of the leaders from either major party to shame since Kevin07.

If they were around when I could vote, they would have got mine.

Most inspiring of all time for me would be Whitlam, but really I was born in 91 so anyone before Howard is before my time in terms of me being actually aware of politics.
 
lol @ Pyne

edit: Also, does anyone know what the budget process was like over the last few years? I'm sure there was hot air from the Libs but was there much real changes/delays etc
 

hidys

Member
lol @ Pyne

edit: Also, does anyone know what the budget process was like over the last few years? I'm sure there was hot air from the Libs but was there much real changes/delays etc

Do you mean in terms of them blocking a budget in the Senate? Because that has happened only once in Australian history.
 
Do you mean in terms of them blocking a budget in the Senate? Because that has happened only once in Australian history.

not blocking no but how smoothly the budgets passed and whether much horsetrading took place.

Greens VIC Senator Richard Di Natale goes in on behalf of young people. My man.

I wonder if this is a valid point
"The budget measures shift income away from poorer people who spend all their income and who spend less when their income falls towards those on higher incomes who would save more when they get more income. This means that spending in the economy is likely to grow more slowly and unemployment will increase."
 

hidys

Member
not blocking no but how smoothly the budgets passed and whether much horsetrading took place.

Greens VIC Senator Richard Di Natale goes in on behalf of young people. My man.

I wonder if this is a valid point
"The budget measures shift income away from poorer people who spend all their income and who spend less when their income falls towards those on higher incomes who would save more when they get more income. This means that spending in the economy is likely to grow more slowly and unemployment will increase."

Even the RBA agrees this budget will raise unemployment, it should bring it to around 800,000 (6.25%).
 

Jintor

Member
QHuWrLv.jpg


 
It is generally true that austerity measures damage the economy more than they help it. The real danger of fabricating a deficit crisis like the Libs have in this case is that it will have a negative effect on the longterm economic future of our country, for a cheap bit of short term political gain.
 

Jintor

Member
Truly, Hockey's facial expressions during that whole thing will warm my shattered heart.

Abbott wasn't so good for the facial expressions, spent a lot of time glowering into one hand and rolling his eyes
 
not blocking no but how smoothly the budgets passed and whether much horsetrading took place.

Greens VIC Senator Richard Di Natale goes in on behalf of young people. My man.

I wonder if this is a valid point
"The budget measures shift income away from poorer people who spend all their income and who spend less when their income falls towards those on higher incomes who would save more when they get more income. This means that spending in the economy is likely to grow more slowly and unemployment will increase."

Yes, there was horse trading in the Senate (hence the Labor/Greens Spring Clean election adds) , but beyond that there wasn't actually a need for it. Labor + Greens had a Senate majority from 2011-2014 , and in the House part of the requirement to form government, in the case of a hung parliament, is a guarantee of confidence and supply from the crossbenchers , if that later fails the government is effectively dissolved.

Not sure about 2008-2011. Wasn't really following politics at that point.
 

Yagharek

Member
In ten years time people will be looking back at Gillard as being a good PM in the long run.
She was deeply unpopular but a lot of that can be attributed to the hung parliament and the relentless campaign against her from the media and the then opposition. It was a flawless political tactic really, but utterly, utterly disgraceful to the point of being morally reprehensible the way she was treated.

Shorten though ... I reckon he's the real deal. When speaking before the last election in what appeared to be 'of the cuff' when defeat was obvious, he did make a lot of genuinely sensible and apparently heartfelt comments on social policies on Q&A among other places.

Albanese is also a fine choice too, I just hope that these two can play nice unlike Rudd/Gillard and hopefully we can see them claw back the rhetoric that is blatantly false in the mainstream conversation about debt and the importance of the economy above all else.
 

hidys

Member
In ten years time people will be looking back at Gillard as being a good PM in the long run.
She was deeply unpopular but a lot of that can be attributed to the hung parliament and the relentless campaign against her from the media and the then opposition. It was a flawless political tactic really, but utterly, utterly disgraceful to the point of being morally reprehensible the way she was treated.

Shorten though ... I reckon he's the real deal. When speaking before the last election in what appeared to be 'of the cuff' when defeat was obvious, he did make a lot of genuinely sensible and apparently heartfelt comments on social policies on Q&A among other places.

Albanese is also a fine choice too, I just hope that these two can play nice unlike Rudd/Gillard and hopefully we can see them claw back the rhetoric that is blatantly false in the mainstream conversation about debt and the importance of the economy above all else.

Thanks to the rule changes by Rudd, Albo/Shorten fighting is not really that much of a worry.
 
What the hell happened D:


There are no words for how fucking much I hate this guy:
What if you’re 27 years old, unemployed and no longer have access to welfare benefits, he asked. Would a visit to the doctor - like a beer or cigarettes - become a luxury?
“Well, I would expect to be in a job,” Mr Hockey shot back. “That'd be the starting point, you'd be in a job. And we need you to work.”

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...ds-7-gp-fee-20140515-zrdb6.html#ixzz31nE3zAPT

Duh, why did no one think of that?

Also fuck those elderly people who need to visit the doctor once a week for check ups. I guess they should have worked harder to save for retirement.


EDIT: hahaha @ the picture above.
 

ahaha magnificent


It's nice to see Shorten really show himself as a capable leader and give Tony a taste of his own medicine. While I'm annoyed at the negative atmosphere Abbot created, it's better than Shorten being ineffectual. It'll also be amusing to see Abbot experience what it's like to have his own "must disagree with everything the government says" opposition style used against him.
 

MTE

Member
Thanks for the links, GAF. I felt like getting angry at politicians tonight.

Shorten: Nice speech. Agreed.

Hockey: "What if you were unemployed?" "I wouldn't be." What a cunt. He has no concept of hardship.
I've been recently (Still am, until Monday) unemployed, and I'm under 30.
 

bomma_man

Member
not blocking no but how smoothly the budgets passed and whether much horsetrading took place.

Greens VIC Senator Richard Di Natale goes in on behalf of young people. My man.

I wonder if this is a valid point
"The budget measures shift income away from poorer people who spend all their income and who spend less when their income falls towards those on higher incomes who would save more when they get more income. This means that spending in the economy is likely to grow more slowly and unemployment will increase."

It's very, very valid. There's a graph that's made the rounds in US poli GAF that shows that food stamps (aka welfare) are the best form of stimulus by far. You're better off having a lot of people buying little things, which in turn drives aggregate demand, than some rich fuck stimulating the private jet industry and hoarding everything else.
 

Arksy

Member
The constitution says that if a piece of legislation fails to pass twice in a period greater than three months, a double dissolution election can be called.

HOWEVER, if that piece of legislation is the budget, it is convention that the government immediately resigns.

Edit: I really really want to see a DD called. Not so much because I disagree with the budget, but just because it'd be incredibly interesting and the spectacle of it would be amazing. Yes, I'm a bad person. :(
 

hidys

Member
The constitution says that if a piece of legislation fails to pass twice in a period greater than three months, a double dissolution election can be called.

HOWEVER, if that piece of legislation is the budget, it is convention that the government immediately resigns.

Edit: I really really want to see a DD called. Not so much because I disagree with the budget, but just because it'd be incredibly interesting and the spectacle of it would be amazing. Yes, I'm a bad person. :(

I have to ask what this is based on? It seems like fairly uncharted territory.
 

Arksy

Member
I have to ask what this is based on? It seems like fairly uncharted territory.

It's a long standing Westminster convention.

A quick google found me on the Australian Federal Budget wiki entry;

Australia follows, to a great extent, the conventions of the Westminster system. For example, the prime minister must have the support of a majority in the House of Representatives, and must in any case be able to ensure the existence of no absolute majority against the government. In relation to the budget, that requires that if the House fails to pass the government's budget, even by one dollar, then the government must either resign so that a different government can be appointed or seek a parliamentary dissolution so that new general elections may be held in order to re-confirm or deny the government's mandate.
 

hidys

Member
Again my ignorance of parliamentary procedure shows, but has the budget already passed the house of reps or is that happening later?
 

Arksy

Member
Again my ignorance of parliamentary procedure shows, but has the budget already passed the house of reps or is that happening later?

Not yet, it will pass the HoR with relative ease though, and the Senate is where it might be blocked.
 

Arksy

Member
It says nothing of the Senate in that piece.

That's because the Senate is an Australian aberration. The Senate can block the budget and the government is supposed to resign. That's why (in part) Whitlam was dismissed in 1975, he didn't resign despite the fact the Senate only delayed the budget vote, even though they didn't actually reject it.

Edit: I mean it did spawn the biggest constitutional crisis in this countries history so it's not really straightforward law, the subsequent referendums cemented the power of the Senate to block supply, and the ability of the GG to dismiss the PM.
 

hidys

Member
That's because the Senate is an Australian aberration. The Senate can block the budget and the government is supposed to resign. That's why (in part) Whitlam was dismissed in 1975, he didn't resign despite the fact the Senate only delayed the budget vote, even though they didn't actually reject it.

Edit: I mean it did spawn the biggest constitutional crisis in this countries history so it's not really straightforward law, the subsequent referendums cemented the power of the Senate to block supply, and the ability of the GG to dismiss the PM.

The fact that the article is specifically about Australia and that the Senate is not mentioned makes me think otherwise. It seems obvious that one can't govern without a budget so either we shutdown the government, they call an election or they pass a new budget. The likely reason for the article being written the way it was is because governments are made in the house, not in the senate.
 

Arksy

Member
The fact that the article is specifically about Australia and that the Senate is not mentioned makes me think otherwise. It seems obvious that one can't govern without a budget so either we shutdown the government, they call an election or they pass a new budget. The likely reason for the article being written the way it was is because governments are made in the house, not in the senate.

I'll paste this from the Senate page because it basically says what I've been trying to in much better language;

The constitutional text denies the Senate the power to originate or amend appropriation bills, in deference to the conventions of the classical Westminster system. Under a traditional Westminster system, the executive government is responsible for its use of public funds to the lower house, which has the power to bring down a government by blocking its access to supply – i.e. revenue appropriated through taxation. The arrangement as expressed in the Australian Constitution, however, still leaves the Senate with the power to reject supply bills or defer their passage – undoubtedly one of the Senate's most contentious and powerful abilities.

The ability to block supply was the origin of the 1975 Australian constitutional crisis. The Opposition used its numbers in the Senate to defer supply bills, refusing to deal with them until an election was called for both Houses of Parliament, an election which it hoped to win. The Prime Minister of the day, Gough Whitlam, contested the legitimacy of the blocking and refused to resign. The crisis brought to a head two Westminster conventions that, under the Australian constitutional system, were in conflict – firstly, that a government may continue to govern for as long as it has the support of the lower house, and secondly, that a government that no longer has access to supply must either resign or be dismissed. The crisis was resolved in November 1975 when Governor-General Sir John Kerr dismissed Whitlam's government and appointed a caretaker government on condition that elections for both houses of parliament be held. This action in itself was a source of controversy and debate continues on the proper usage of the Senate's ability to block supply and on whether such a power should even exist.

This is why I said the Australian Senate is an aberration, this could only happen in Australia and no other Westminster system because they either lack an elected upper house, or lack an upper house entirely.
 

EatChildren

Currently polling second in Australia's federal election (first in the Gold Coast), this feral may one day be your Bogan King.
here's what happens

double dissolution called

libs still win

end times
 

Arksy

Member
here's what happens

double dissolution called

libs still win

end times

They probably might, because they're in an incredibly strong position at the moment. It would give the minor parties huge clout in the Senate and there's no guarantee that he'll be able to pass the same budget after a DD.

If that happens, and the libs get elected with a much reduced majority, you can bet they would moderate.
 

hidys

Member
here's what happens

double dissolution called

libs still win

end times

Don't destroy my dream.

My dream of Abbott leading the shortest Liberal government in history.

BTW here are the odds from sportsbet in regards to when the next election will be held:

2014: 8.00
2016: 1.13
 

Arksy

Member
That makes sense but it seems like they wouldn't have to resign if they passed a new budget.

I don't think that's a question anyone can really answer with a hundred percent certainty. I did my honours in constitutional law and I couldn't say for sure. Even my professors would have a hard time. That's why I find constitutional law so exciting, you're almost always in uncharted territory.

It's important to note that this is just a convention, but it doesn't make it any less important. Whitlam refused to resign and was sacked. A government which can't pass the budget is in an impossible position. Abbott would be incredibly silly to try to hold on to an untenable position if his budget was defeated in the Senate. The entire point of a double dissolution election is to let the people pass judgement on the issue. This is a democracy after all.
 

hidys

Member
I don't think that's a question anyone can really answer with a hundred percent certainty. I did my honours in constitutional law and I couldn't say for sure. Even my professors would have a hard time. That's why I find constitutional law so exciting, you're almost always in uncharted territory.

It's important to note that this is just a convention, but it doesn't make it any less important. Whitlam refused to resign and was sacked. A government which can't pass the budget is in an impossible position. Abbott would be incredibly silly to try to hold on to an untenable position if his budget was defeated in the Senate. The entire point of a double dissolution election is to let the people pass judgement on the issue. This is a democracy after all.

From a practical stand point I would say that it would be pretty shitty if a government was literally incapable of altering its budget if it was rejected. But I suppose you're right and we really don't know what the fuck happens in that circumstance. I'm pretty sure that both Labor and the Greens would accept a less egregious budget though.
 
here's what happens

double dissolution called

libs still win

end times

I saw enough from Bill Shorten in that speech to believe he'd have a definite chance if an election was held in the near future, especially when you take the recent WA senate by-election into account which resulted in a swing towards the minor parties (PUP/Greens). We hate Labour over here but Shorten was a non-entity at the time, which may have changed since this speech.

This budget could well end up being Abbott's equivalent of WorkChoices in that it makes him such a massive target even the normally ineffectual left wing parties could score some hits.

Palmer United would also be fine in the event of another election, since Palmer himself can outspend both the major parties on advertising and keeps spouting populist slogans that people can get behind. The government's attacks on social welfare and the environment will have also motivated the Greens base; we saw this in WA with Scott Ludlam delivering this devastating speech and winning his seat back thanks to an effective grassroots campaign.

If the Libs were to win though, it'd be a disaster for the country as a whole.
 
They probably might, because they're in an incredibly strong position at the moment. It would give the minor parties huge clout in the Senate and there's no guarantee that he'll be able to pass the same budget after a DD.

If that happens, and the libs get elected with a much reduced majority, you can bet they would moderate.

I can't actually see them being willing to go to a DD. While it's a nice club to threaten the minor parties with (and even PUP to some extent, since even if it gets the same numbers, there's no guarantee it'd be the same state makeup) it has no practical advantage. They well might win the House of Reps (but it'd probably be with a reduced majority), but the chance they get a more favourable senate is close to 0 (I don't think there's even been a DD that resulted in a clear Senate majority for the government who called it). The last thing the Coalition wants is a senate in which Labor effectively holds the balance of power (which is the practical outcome of the Greens holding balance of power in the Senate with a Coalition government).

It's a powerful threat but its a lot like threatening to detonate the bomb strapped to your own chest in a crowded room.
 

Shaneus

Member
Truly, Hockey's facial expressions during that whole thing will warm my shattered heart.

Abbott wasn't so good for the facial expressions, spent a lot of time glowering into one hand and rolling his eyes
Comparing it to one of the images on this page, a lot of the time he really did look like a character out of SNES-era Donkey Kong.

Did you do that, or someone else? Because that's a thing of beauty.
 
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