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2014 Australian Government Budget |OT| Throw some debt on the barbie
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A More Normal Bird
Unconfirmed Member
It was interesting to see the way Shorten framed his comments on a return to surplus (actually I'm pretty sure he didn't use the S word once); a focus on sustainability, ethicalness and the real world economic figures (inflation, unemployment, interest rates). If I was Opposition Leader and didn't want to open the can of worms that is telling Australians that federal surpluses are almost always pointless I'd probably take a similar tack - the budget is not the economy, focus on the real consequences - but it'd be good to see an attempt to steer the debate onto the notion that a perfectly designed budget would automatically bring itself into surplus once it was both possible and necessary.
CrazedProfessional
Member
The greens said they will vote against the whole thing, Palmer and Shorten heavily implying the same thing. Interesting.
Would that be enough to cause a DD? From what I understand, there needs to be some kind of equal number of seats (or greater) to cause it.
(I didn't get very far in that wikipedia article, lols)
CrazedProfessional
Member
Currently ALP + GRN + PUP is a majority.
No Labor, no DD.
there aren't any pup in the senate til July. I assume the budget goes to the senate before then? edit: i could be wrong on this.
CrazedProfessional
Member
Maybe, ALP + GRN in the current senate is still a majority.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cd6WXBzXyB4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yosyU-S2FOg
They both seem to hate it.
Greens + Labor hold the senate right now. 40 seats to potential 36. Either way Tones is gonna have some fun trying to get this shit through the senate.
I believe so. As I recall bouncing twice before a DD is tradition though, so I don't know what happens then.
As I thought. Palmer is going to be a very popular man along with the PUP senators from all indications then. If Oakshotte and Windsor had a lot of attention, prepare for round 2.
I believe they have to be supply bills critical to gov't function. Not just any piece of legislation.
I believe they have to be supply bills critical to gov't function. Not just any piece of legislation.
That's what I thought so Greens + ALP are needed to block budget.
A
A More Normal Bird
Unconfirmed Member
Current Senate
Until 30 June 2014, party representation in the Senate is as follows:
Coalition - 34
Australian Labor Party - 31
Australian Greens - 9
Independent - 1
Democratic Labour Party - 1
New Senate
From 1 July 2014:
Coalition - 33
Australian Labor Party - 25
Australian Greens - 10
Palmer United Party - 3
Independent - 1
Democratic Labour Party - 1
Liberal Democratic Party - 1
Family First - 1
Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party - 1
So from July, Labor + Greens + PUP would be exactly half of the Senate.
Oh sorry, I forgot budget =/= supply. My mistake
Wait aren't they the same thing budget and supply?
Elaugaufein
Member
Currently Labor (31) + Greens (9) are 40 votes (38 needed to resolve a measure in the negative, 39 needed to resolve a matter in the affirmative). Without support from one or the other any measure is dead until July.
New Senate: Labor (25) + Greens (10) are 35 votes. PUP has 3 votes +1 given the MEP Senator has agreed to vote in a block , for a total of 4. So any alliance of those 3 groups is sufficient for a majority. That's probably the only way to get an outright majority by the ALP (since of the remaining 4 Senators only Xenophon is likely to side with them), In total this is ~39-40 votes , so anyone crossing the floor will (may) sink them.
The Coalition has 33 Seats. That means that support from Labor and/or the Greens will pass anything outright. Support from the PUP block gives them 37. They'll likely get support of 3 of the 4 other Crossbenchers but horse trading will be involved (even if they agree with Coalition policy, they may as well milk it) and they are probably just as likely to get Xenophon's support as the ALP is (but again horse trading). Worth noting again is that even with that entire block , they have 41 votes , which means that any lack of Coalition or Party discipline could sink them.
Discipline is slightly less of a problem for the ALP, since a) they have a clear policy to vote as a bloc except on a handful of topics and b) the Nationals and Liberals disagree on somethings.
Edit - Beaten like The Power of the Cloud..
So they are the same thing since a government cannot govern without passing a budget as I thought.
Elaugaufein
Member
The AMEP is still bloc voting with PUP IIRC, which means that effectively Labor + Greens + PUP (with AMEP) is actually a clear majority.
I wouldn't count on that arrangement since the details of it are pretty hazy.
A
A More Normal Bird
Unconfirmed Member
Cheers, I'd forgotten that. Interesting, though I'm not sure how solid the bloc will be if the Government gets desperate, or how closely Palmer's negotiating platform will align with Labor and the Greens.
Elaugaufein
Member
I wouldn't count on it either. But it does make sense. If he votes with PUP as a block, he's almost always in the balance of power. If he doesn't
Against PUP / for Labor: He probably loses.
Against PUP / for Coalition: Can block but probably can't pass legislation. In the case of blocking he'd be highly valuable though and could maybe get considerable concessions. But since the Coalition controls the House, they probably don't have a huge amount of interest in actively blocking much.
As much as I enjoy Palmer laying down the facts on government debt, it does need to be reduced somehow and nobody seems to be talking about the alternative solutions and it bugs me.
EDIT: I do like that he was one step away from saying "Hey Tones bring the ledger by my headquarters and I'll have the boys look over it for ya" though
EDIT: I do like that he was one step away from saying "Hey Tones bring the ledger by my headquarters and I'll have the boys look over it for ya" though
EatChildren
Currently polling second in Australia's federal election (first in the Gold Coast), this feral may one day be your Bogan King.
is australia over yet
Elaugaufein
Member
Actually there's a valid argument that our current level of public debt is sustainable (it's actually low compared to all but a handful of other developed economies and most of those actually taxed the heck out of people using their natural resources). Whether or not we should take steps to prevent our debt growing is another question (one for which their doesn't actually seem to be much work done).
Our private debt may actually be problematic but as far as I am aware there's no mechanism by which reducing public debt will improve that situation rather than worsen it. Since as quality of life is decreased by decreasing public debt , private debt is used to compensate by those who can access it.
freefornow
Gold Member
nvm
Thanks.
Yeah I personally think that as long as the money's being used to actually finish the growth phase we're in instead of abandoning it half finished AGAIN then there's no problem. Dat debt growth rate though... nobody ever talks about this shit in the right terms :\
And yeah, it's weird that the way that the Coalition propose stopping the feared increases in cost of living due to the mining/carbon taxes is to directly affect the cost of living. I doubt that the mining companies are as ready to leave as the Coalition claims they are and if they are then they should never have let the economy get that dependent on them anyway. The great thing about natural resources is that they're not going anywhere, a company can decide to leave tomorrow but they have to come back and take our easily accessible deposits eventually, and they'll be worth more when they do. (Though in the case of bauxite that's not really the case because the world deposits are way bigger than our projected usage).
Something that's also annoyed me for a while is that we're only exploiting one of uranium's possible revenue streams. It's possible to:
1) Sell uranium to other countries
2) Sell storage for the waste
3) Sell the waste back to those countries in 30 years when they have breeder reactors
We could be selling the same uranium to people THREE TIMES but our window to do that is quickly running out ;_;
Elaugaufein
Member
Ahh but those cost of living increases are largely directed at people who can't fight back (students, poor, young, sick, unemployed).
And in the case of pensions at a group who probably won't fight back (what are they going to do ? Vote Labor ?).
Elaugaufein
Member
Its kind of sad that in order for the ALP to remember what it stands for , you need to stomp on something they stand for , really really hard.
At least we know that there is some fire in Bill.
Their sneers/poker faces were also revolting to look at. What snakes.
That is something that both sides have always done.
bananabread
Member
Shorten spitting fire.
Bring on the DD!
Can anyone here make a solid case for the Liberal party winning in the next election? Thanks to the budget people are now worried about their bottom line more than brown people on boats, so they'll need to find a new narrative they can control.
Bring on the DD!
Can anyone here make a solid case for the Liberal party winning in the next election? Thanks to the budget people are now worried about their bottom line more than brown people on boats, so they'll need to find a new narrative they can control.
Elaugaufein
Member
Yeah, there's a lot of posturing and performance that goes on. Notice how those in the primary camera for Shorten's speech are all in red (or have red ties) but when the camera pans out, you can see its not consistent over the ALP.
Elaugaufein
Member
Sure.
1) If Labor does force a DD , it will count against them: people don't like going to the polls, and that can easily be framed as interfering with a duly elected government.
2) Its likely that a majority of people actually do buy into the household buget / tighter belts rhetoric on some level. It resonates with the financial understanding that most people have. As long as that can be sold people will bear it , because they believe it is necessary.
bububu he didn't say any policies! All politics, no policies!
All politics, no policies! Repeat ad nauseum.
PS. I love that even state leaders are pissed. Napthine was positively furious with the Abbott government.
I did not notice that. Good find.
So really this was another nail in the coffin for the Napthine government.
Elaugaufein
Member
I think my favourite is the two people with blue / purple ties who know the view is blocked by Shorten's arm and body respectively.
EatChildren
Currently polling second in Australia's federal election (first in the Gold Coast), this feral may one day be your Bogan King.
Shorten's reply was fantastic.
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