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[Erevador]

Interesting new article on Five Thirty Eight with some important observations:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/gary-johnson-isnt-fading/

Gary Johnson doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. In recent elections, third-party candidates have tended to lose support as Election Day approaches. But the Libertarian Party presidential nominee and former New Mexico governor is holding steady in the polls, and we’ve reached a point in the race at which past third-party candidates had already started to see their support nose-dive.

Johnson is pulling in about 9 percent in the national polls, according to the FiveThirtyEight polls-only average. And his share in national polls has not fallen as we’ve gotten closer to the election. Indeed, Johnson’s support right now is higher than many other viable1
third-party candidates’ at a similar point in campaigns since 1948.

The FiveThirtyEight polls-plus model is adjusting to Johnson’s staying power: It discounts third-party candidates’ support based on their tendency to lose steam down the stretch, but it’s grown less skeptical of Johnson as his polling numbers have held up.

A lot of people have underestimated Johnson up to this point, but some recent polls have him beating Donald Trump among millenials. He's also had a good month of fundraising so far this August. His polling has been remarkably consistent, but hasn't quite gotten him up to the 15% he'll need to make the debates. That said, his campaign (and Libertarian superpacs that support him) are just now starting to roll out aggressive advertising, so it will be interesting to see if that makes a difference.

An important note at the end of the 538 piece:

Still, if he ends up with 7 percent of the vote — as we’d expect based upon history and the current polls — the Libertarian Party will qualify for federal campaign funding in 2020, and Johnson will claim the highest share of the vote of any non-major party nominee in 20 years.

 

[injurai]

Split that vote! Split that vote!

It should be his new campaign line or something.

 

[JinjoUnchained]

I hope he makes the debates. Realistically, though, I bet voters are waiting longer to "fall in line" bc of Hillary and Trump's unfavorables.

 

[gutter_trash]

I hope he wins Utah.

Plant that seed

 

[smurfx]

i just hope he pulls more votes trump in the end than he does hillary. i want hillary to clobber trump in november.

 

[Hylian7]

I don't like Johnson or Stein at all, and Hillary is better than both in my opinion, but if a third party actually wins a state this year, would this potentially open any kind of floodgate for third parties to be in future elections?

 

[A Fish Aficionado]

At least he's pro vaccine now.
Stein tho...

 

[RaidenZR]

Wasn't his percentage a little higher a couple of months ago?

 

[Media]

I hope he makes the debates. Realistically, though, I bet voters are waiting longer to "fall in line" bc of Hillary and Trump's unfavorables.

I don't want him to make the debates because he has no real chance of winning, and having an extra person there would allow Trump to pull the same bullshit he pulled during the primary debates. I want him one on one and destroyed lol.

 

[SDCowboy]

edit: nvm

 

[QuantumBro]

I could see him beating Trump in some states depending on how low Trump can go.

I don't like Johnson or Stein at all, and Hillary is better than both in my opinion, but if a third party actually wins a state this year, would this potentially open any kind of floodgate for third parties to be in future elections?

15% nationwide is the magic number for appearing in the debate.

 

[SlimySnake]

Millennials are the worst.

 

[Grakl]

Millennials are the worst.

They're killing the election!

 

[makingmusic476]

Imagine if the Libertarian Party splits the vote for multiple consecutive general elections.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

I don't like Johnson or Stein at all, and Hillary is better than both in my opinion, but if a third party actually wins a state this year, would this potentially open any kind of floodgate for third parties to be in future elections?

Third parties have won states before. In the unlikely event he wins a state, it'll be a footnote.

Imagine if the Libertarian Party splits the vote for multiple consecutive general elections.

It'd force one of the parties to pivot to cover their flank.

 

[Team Alucard]

He will be irrelevant come election day.

 

[jack_package_200]

He will be irrelevant come election day.

As will Trump after the election is over. :3

 

[Tal Shiar Agent]

I can see the Libertarian Party overtaking the GOP as the conservative side of our two party system as the Baby Boomers and Silent Generation die off. While they generally are socially liberal and many self-described Libertarians are actually Rockefeller Republicans, the party line on economic issues and the role of government is naive, selfish, and dangerous to the health of the nation.

 

[BotoxAgent]

Jill Stein, lol....stay losing

 

[Beer Monkey]

I'd actually like for him to be in the debates, the visibility would pull more votes from Trump and grant Hillary some more electors. This is entirely feasible.

Third parties have won states before. In the unlikely event he wins a state, it'll be a footnote.

George Wallace was a very special scenario. Johnson would be like Ross Perot at best; way more popular vote than George Wallace, zero electoral votes.

 

[metalslimer]

If the trump disaster hasn't gotten his numbers to 15 yet he's not getting there.

Lol at stein though. She shouldn't even want to make the debates because it would drive her numbers down

 

[robosllim]

I don't like Johnson or Stein at all, and Hillary is better than both in my opinion, but if a third party actually wins a state this year, would this potentially open any kind of floodgate for third parties to be in future elections?

This is all that matters to me -- getting Johnson enough votes to further legitimize third parties in 2020. Though honestly, if Perot didn't do it with his 20%, probably no one can.

But yeah, I'm in a very blue state, so I feel safe voting for Johnson. If I were somewhere more contentious, I'd be giving my vote (begrudgingly) to Hillary.

 

[TheAbsolution]

I don't want him in the debates. Mainly because Trump needs to be destroyed one on one by Clinton. An extra person on stage gives him an out.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I'd actually like for him to be in the debates, the visibility would pull more votes from Trump and grant Hillary some more electors. This is entirely feasible.

All Johnson would do at the debate would take the heat off Trump and force Hillary to be on the defense, and offense, on two different people, since they'd both tag team her, since both of them are conservative. He's also pulling votes equally from both Hillary and Trump, in some cases, slightly more from Hillary.

It's a waste of everyone's time to have him there and he'd just be a distraction for Trump to use to get by without Hillary nuking him from orbit.

 

[MartyStu]

I can see the Libertarian Party overtaking the GOP as the conservative side of our two party system as the Baby Boomers and Silent Generation die off. While they generally are socially liberal and many self-described Libertarians are actually Rockefeller Republicans, the party line on economic issues and the role of government is naive, selfish, and dangerous to the health of the nation.

True, but no longer having to fight on most social issues nearly as much gives much more bandwidth to the Democrats.

 

[Googly Eyes Dog]

Does he have a legit shot at winning?

 

[matmanx1]

I would at least like to see him in the debates. I think it would be interesting to see how a debate would go between Hillary, Trump and Johnson at the same time. For posterity, of course.

 

[CrocMother]

Does he have a legit shot at winning?

No

 

[tuffy]

Does he have a legit shot at winning?

Not at all.

 

[Beer Monkey]

All Johnson would do at the debate would take the heat off Trump and force Hillary to be on the defense, and offense, on two different people, since they'd both tag team her, since both of them are conservative. He's also pulling votes equally from both Hillary and Trump, in some cases, slightly more from Hillary.

It's a waste of everyone's time to have him there and he'd just be a distraction for Trump to use to get by without Hillary nuking him from orbit.

That's, like, your opinion, man.

Everything is too baked in at this point. No substantial amount of LVs are switching from Trump to Hillary, or vice versa. But they sure as heck could switch from Trump to Johnson if they actually knew who the fuck Johnson is.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Third parties have won states before. In the unlikely event he wins a state, it'll be a footnote.


It'd force one of the parties to pivot to cover their flank.

Damn, George Wallace carried 5 states? Actually, nevermind, I'm not shocked about this.

 

[HStallion]

This is all that matters to me -- getting Johnson enough votes to further legitimize third parties in 2020. Though honestly, if Perot didn't do it with his 20%, probably no one can.

But yeah, I'm in a very blue state, so I feel safe voting for Johnson. If I were somewhere more contentious, I'd be giving my vote (begrudgingly) to Hillary.

I'd rather Vermin Supreme.

 

[Steel]

Started seeing his commercials in florida, actually.

 

[Man Called Aerodynamics]

Does this imply that Jill Stein is fading the way a third-party candidate normally would?

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Does this imply that Jill Stein is fading the way a third-party candidate normally would?

You have to be relevant at one point to be able to fade. Stein was never relevant.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Does this imply that Jill Stein is fading the way a third-party candidate normally would?

I'm pretty sure she was always irrelevant.

 

[El Odio]

What worthwhile thing would Johnson, or hell even Stein bring to a debate? I've yet to actually here anything from Johnson on his policy (admittedly because I'm not really following him) and anytime Stein speaks up its either anti-science nonsense or extreme contempt for Clinton.

 

[Imperfected]

Despite predictions of shrinkage, Johnson remains firm.

 

[Slayven]

Come election date this won't hold

 

[Steel]

Does this imply that Jill Stein is fading the way a third-party candidate normally would?

She never had a reasonable share of the vote.

 

[The Albatross]

I don't want him in the debates. Mainly because Trump needs to be destroyed one on one by Clinton. An extra person on stage gives him an out.

Johnson has said that if he were debating Trump one on one, he would call him a pussy. I want Johnson in the debates for that alone

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FitCoZ0kGpE

 

[Man Called Aerodynamics]

You have to be relevant at one point to be able to fade.

Ouch. Lol

 

[balladofwindfishes]

That's, like, your opinion, man.

Everything is too baked in at this point. No substantial amount of LVs are switching from Trump to Hillary, or vice versa. But they sure as heck could switch from Trump to Johnson if they actually knew who the fuck Johnson is.

This goes beyond the presidency.

Racism, hatred, bigotry, it needs to be brutally destroyed on live television with millions watching. No distractions. No where to hide. Nothing. It needs to be a 1:1 take down of Trump and everything he stands for.

 

[Plinko]

Johnson is pulling in about 9 percent in the national polls, according to the FiveThirtyEight polls-only average. And his share in national polls has not fallen as we’ve gotten closer to the election. Indeed, Johnson’s support right now is higher than many other viable1
third-party candidates’ at a similar point in campaigns since 1948.

Wait, Perot wasn't higher than 9% at this point? Didn't he end up with like 20% nationally?

 

[Erevador]

Wait, Perot wasn't higher than 9% at this point? Didn't he end up with like 20% nationally?

Many, not all. Perot's support was much higher in 92. He was polling about 20% at that point which is about what he got in the election.

 

[LilWayneSuckz]

If Ross Perot couldn't make it....

 

[robosllim]

I'd rather Vermin Supreme.

Me too, but Vermin's never been anywhere near 10% in the polls so voting for him really is a wasted vote.

 

[Juicy Bob]

It's a shame the US doesn't have a legitimate alternative to the two party system.

Johnson's Libertarian Party are an absolute joke and the Greens seem rather kooky compared to their British or Australian counterparts.

It's a real shame.

 

[jack_package_200]

It's a shame the US doesn't have a legitimate alternative to the two party system.

Johnson's Libertarian Party are an absolute joke .

Its like watching an anime convention video

 

[Maxim726X]

As will Trump after the election is over. :3

Oh I don't think he will be.

Again, he got 13 million votes. He'll still have plenty of support from a sizeable portion of the conservative electorate.