Baki
Member
The 100-page activist report guarantees a Square Enix sale, probably as early as 2026. Everyone is getting lost in the details of 3D Investment Partners' (3DIP) new report. The complaints about Forspoken's budget or the "sluggish" margins.
You need to look at who this investor is. 3DIP isn't just some random hedge fund complaining about dividends. They are "The Closer" of Japanese M&A and now own 14% of Square Enix.
Let's look at their track record:
1/ Fuji Soft (2024): 3DIP bought a stake, argued the company was inefficient, and forced them into a bidding war. Result: Sold to KKR for $4B.
2/ Toshiba (2023): Management wanted to split the company. 3DIP blocked it and demanded a full sale. Result: Sold for $14B.
Now they own 14% of Square Enix (making them the 2nd largest shareholder). They didn't buy that much stock to get a 5% dividend bump. They are running the exact same playbook that forced Fuji Soft and Toshiba to sell.
Here is why this ends with an acquisition in 2026 (and probably to Sony):
1. The "Gun to the Head" (Management Survival)
This is the biggest driver. Before this report, Square Enix management (CEO Kiryu) had no reason to sell. They were safe.
Now, they are on death ground. 3DIP's 14% stake is enough to rally other frustrated shareholders and vote out the board at the next meeting (June 2026).
The Choice: Kiryu can either wait to be fired by a hostile activist (who will chop the company up for parts), OR he can find a "White Knight" to buy the company on friendly terms.
Sony is the only White Knight that fits. Selling to Sony allows management to spin the narrative as "joining the PlayStation family" rather than "surrendering to a hedge fund." It saves their jobs and their legacy.
2. The Field is Clear (No Bidding War)
Two years ago, this would have been a competitive situation. Now?
* PIF (Saudi Arabia): Out. They just spent their cash on the Electronic Arts deal.
* Tencent: Politically impossible. Japanese regulators won't let a Chinese firm buy a "national treasure" like Square in the current climate.
* Microsoft: Still cooling off from Activision; won't touch a Japanese hostile situation.
* Nintendo: have the cash but don't do deals this big.
Sony is the only buyer left who has the cash and can clear regulations. They don't have to overpay because there's no one left to bid against them.
The Prediction:
Management will try to fight 3DIP until early 2026. They will fail to move the stock price. Panic will set in before the June shareholder meeting. They will approach Sony for a "rescue" acquisition to keep the company's culture intact. 3DIP gets their payout, Sony gets the IP, and the management gets to keep their jobs.
You need to look at who this investor is. 3DIP isn't just some random hedge fund complaining about dividends. They are "The Closer" of Japanese M&A and now own 14% of Square Enix.
Let's look at their track record:
1/ Fuji Soft (2024): 3DIP bought a stake, argued the company was inefficient, and forced them into a bidding war. Result: Sold to KKR for $4B.
2/ Toshiba (2023): Management wanted to split the company. 3DIP blocked it and demanded a full sale. Result: Sold for $14B.
Now they own 14% of Square Enix (making them the 2nd largest shareholder). They didn't buy that much stock to get a 5% dividend bump. They are running the exact same playbook that forced Fuji Soft and Toshiba to sell.
Here is why this ends with an acquisition in 2026 (and probably to Sony):
1. The "Gun to the Head" (Management Survival)
This is the biggest driver. Before this report, Square Enix management (CEO Kiryu) had no reason to sell. They were safe.
Now, they are on death ground. 3DIP's 14% stake is enough to rally other frustrated shareholders and vote out the board at the next meeting (June 2026).
The Choice: Kiryu can either wait to be fired by a hostile activist (who will chop the company up for parts), OR he can find a "White Knight" to buy the company on friendly terms.
Sony is the only White Knight that fits. Selling to Sony allows management to spin the narrative as "joining the PlayStation family" rather than "surrendering to a hedge fund." It saves their jobs and their legacy.
2. The Field is Clear (No Bidding War)
Two years ago, this would have been a competitive situation. Now?
* PIF (Saudi Arabia): Out. They just spent their cash on the Electronic Arts deal.
* Tencent: Politically impossible. Japanese regulators won't let a Chinese firm buy a "national treasure" like Square in the current climate.
* Microsoft: Still cooling off from Activision; won't touch a Japanese hostile situation.
* Nintendo: have the cash but don't do deals this big.
Sony is the only buyer left who has the cash and can clear regulations. They don't have to overpay because there's no one left to bid against them.
The Prediction:
Management will try to fight 3DIP until early 2026. They will fail to move the stock price. Panic will set in before the June shareholder meeting. They will approach Sony for a "rescue" acquisition to keep the company's culture intact. 3DIP gets their payout, Sony gets the IP, and the management gets to keep their jobs.
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