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[HyperionX]

The PSP is simply way overpowered compared to compete with the DS because all that power is making it eat up way more power. This is a good idea in 2006 or so, but not in 2004 so I can clearly see the delay to 2005 as understandable. Even that may not be enough, so I see several pretty undesirable tradeoffs:

1) Put a huge ass battery in it. However, since lithium ion batteries are pretty expensive this may cause the PSP to be the Sony's Xbox. This may change with improvements of the PSP design as some have mentioned, so the extra costs may just be temporary.

2) As someone has mentioned before, a builtin Memory stick for caching. Again, very expensive but perhaps temporary.

3) Cut out a big power sucker, such as making the screen smaller/poorer/less bright, making it less powerful, or even remove the UMD. This huge feature cut may be very damaging and very risky, but at least it'll correct the battery problem. I don't see Sony doing this unless they have no other choice.

4) Delay it until it is better. This is the cheap way to go, but the danger is that by the time the PSP is out, DS will already have owned to marketplace, relegating the PSP to an Xbox like position simply too far behind to catch up (and even worse, the DS is more "revolutionary" than the PSP so it may even be denounced as "obsolete").

These aren't really nicely looking choices; either PSP sucks for the near future or Sony will lose a lot of money in this for a while.

 

[Insertia]

Frankly, I don't see battery life as gigantic fault for the PSP. For a gaming handheld it's so ground-breaking in its capabilities that it kind of offsets the battery. If it will average three or four hours for something of GT4:Mobile quality, casual gamers won't care. It's rechargeable. If it's 90 minutes Sony has no business releasing this thing at all.

Price and software are far larger dilemmas.

 

[Deg]

Game Gear 2. SEGA still makes hardware

 

[Kseutron]

i've read all the thread and all the talks about the psp's battery life but wait, officially, the psp is still coming in december with an 8hours autonomy for games right ?

10 hours for mp3, 8 hours for games, 2h30 for videos is still the official story

 

[Brofist]

i've read all the thread and all the talks about the psp's battery life but wait, officially, the psp is still coming in december with an 8hours autonomy for games right ?

10 hours for mp3, 8 hours for games, 2h30 for videos is still the official story

even if that were the case someone would find a way to bitch..."Sorry ass PSP, can't even watch LotR all teh way through!!!11"

 

[jarrod]

i've read all the thread and all the talks about the psp's battery life but wait, officially, the psp is still coming in december with an 8hours autonomy for games right ?

10 hours for mp3, 8 hours for games, 2h30 for videos is still the official story

Nope, there really is no official story... Sony has yet to lay down specific battery estimates, those numbers were all compartively based to "similar' devices (ie: comparable to a 2 hour portable DVD player, a 10 hour portable MP3 player, etc). Once Sony adds battery estimates to their PSP spec sheets, then we'll have something official.

 

[seismologist]

I wonder if high development cost is gonna be a turn off for developers. I mean SquareEnix already has 3 DS games announced. To make a game up to PSP graphics standards they'd need to make a full blown console level RPG with FMV and the works.

 

[Doom_Bringer]

PSP needs games! All TGS PSP games looked average and I didn't see no AAA title.

Ridge Racer looks amazing though.

 

[jarrod]

I wonder if high development cost is gonna be a turn off for developers. I mean SquareEnix already has 3 DS games announced. To make a game up to PSP graphics standards they'd need to make a full blown console level RPG with FMV and the works.

Square Enix actually has 6 DS games announced...

-Egg Monster Hero
-Final Fantasy III
-Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles series
-Dragon Warrior Monsters series
-Dragon Warrior Slime Morimori series
-Secret of Mana series

...and one PSP/UMD movie...

-Final Fantasy VII: Advent Children

 

[Lord Error]

There are better display technologies coming down the pipe like OLED which look better, don't require a backlight, etc. which will make the need for a larger batter moot (if they choose to use it)

Believe it or not, but the screen used on the PSP has better brightness and contrast than even Sony's newest OLED screen. I'd love to know how much battery OLED uses and how efficient it is compared to the latest TFTs, though.

PSP needs games! All TGS PSP games looked average

So all PSP games look average, but RR looks amazing... Anyways, I'd say at least two more games looked pretty damn awesome, those being Lumines and Hot Shots Golf.

 

[Doom_Bringer]

RR looked average too cause it only had one car! But I like Ridge Racer so I will probably get that.

 

[Brofist]

:lol I'm pretty sure the final version RR will have more than 1 car.

 

[jett]

RR looked average too cause it only had one car! But I like Ridge Racer so I will probably get that.

Actually, it didn't even have one car.

 

[pilonv1]

Saw this at Beyond3D, interesting that some of the more prominent pro-PSP Beyond3D readers didn't pass this on.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20041005-4273.html

One scenario has the PSP being delayed into next year due to hardware issues. According to an analyst note released by brokerage Piper Jaffray & Co., Sony has not yet solved all the PSP's technical issues.

We are hearing that the platform has other issues such as thermal problems (transistors are running very hot) and a very short battery life (90 minutes) that will almost certainly delay the launch

Maybe it fries eggs too?

 

[DarienA]

If Sony releases a portable with only 90 minutes battery life it deserves to fail. Period.

 

[MassiveAttack]

http://yahoo.businessweek.com/investor/content/oct2004/pi20041011_3666_pi044.htm

Sony Gets Its Game Back
Dramatic cost-cutting and two new PlayStation products mean the electronics giant could see solid revenue and improving profits

Almost 18 months have passed since the so-called Sony Shock, when the outfit's (SNE; Buy; recent price: $35) share price dropped more than 25% ina week. The stock has made quite a comeback, jumping 46% from the lows hit in late April, 2003. The Street's consensus is that the upside is very limited, given what some view as the lack of an earnings driver and an ineffective cost structure. We at Standard & Poor's Equity Research believe otherwise. With an improved cost structure and new products on the way, Sony could surprise the market, in our opinion. Advertisement

We believe that the effect of Sony's recent restructuring has been gradually kicking in during fiscal year 2005 (ending Mar. 31). Although the company is expected to book restructuring expenses of $1.2 billion, this is projected to result in cost reductions of $800 million. This is in addition to cost reductions of $564 million and $727 million in fiscal 2003 and fiscal 2004, respectively. Therefore, by the end of March, Sony's cost structure should be improved by an estimated $2 billion.

Sony is pinning its hopes on the new PlayStation2 (PS2), slimmer and lighter than the current PS2 console. The internal volume has been reduced by 75% and the weight halved. We believe that the new PS2 could ignite fresh demand among children and young adults for a few reasons. Because of its reduced price, consumers who could not formerly afford it may now decide to own one. Secondly, since it's now relatively small, families could decide to purchase extra PS2s for siblings.

HOLIDAY DEBUT. Moreover, we believe the small size of the new PS2 adds portability. A user can keep the original model at home, and take the new model when traveling or visiting friends. Therefore, we believe that Sony's forecast of shipping 14 million units (both old and new models) by March, 2005, is feasible.

Suggested retail prices for the new PS2 in the U.S. and Europe are $149 and 149 euros -- but actual prices will likely be less, we believe. Sony has intentionally priced it low, assuming it can still be profitable with cost reductions. The timing is also very good, since the new PS2 will make its debut on Nov. 1 in the U.S. and Europe, and two days later in Japan. We believe that a launch a month before the holiday season should be more than enough time to stir excitement in the game-console market.

Another positive driver for Sony: the PlayStation Portable (PSP), which made an impressive debut at the Tokyo Game Show 2004, where users could touch and feel the handheld gaming device for the first time. After test-playing PSP, we believe that management's fiscal year 2005 domestic-shipment projection of 3 million units is conservative. Considering that the graphics and characters' movements are quite clear and well-defined for its size, we believe it's a "portable PS2" in every sense. As such, we expect Sony to ship between 3.5 and 4 million units in Japan.

HEAD-TO-HEAD BATTLE. In our view, PSP will not cannibalize sales from the new PS2 because the former is entering the market for handheld game devices and the latter is leveraging the market of the old home-console model. Once PSP debuts in the U.S. -- which we expect sometime between January and March, 2005 -- we look for total shipments (including Japan) to reach between 5 million and 6 million units. By end of fiscal year 2006, we project shipments of 10 million units worldwide.

Since Sony will go head-to-head with Nintendo, which priced its new handheld gaming device at $136, we do not expect PSP to be priced at more than $200. Consequently, even if Sony sells PSP at the lower end of our projection, it could produce substantial incremental revenues in the second half of the fiscal year 2006.

To get a sense of how much Sony stands to gain from PSP, we estimate that revenues from PSone and PS2 for fiscal year 2004 were approximately $4 billion (Sony doesn't disclose the actual figure, but states that hardware accounts for 50% of total sales from its Games Division). Given the line of exciting software, PSP alone could generate almost half the revenue of PSone and PS2 by the end of fiscal year 2006. We expect margins for PSP to be between 6% and 8%, assuming that Sony has not mastered cost efficiency at that point in the PSP's life cycle.

 

[DarienA]

http://forums.gaming-age.com/showthread.php?t=18399

 

[IJoel]

Since Sony will go head-to-head with Nintendo, which priced its new handheld gaming device at $136, we do not expect PSP to be priced at more than $200.

What?

A PSP for $200 would be very appealing though.

 

[Soul4ger]

What?

A PSP for $200 would be very appealing though.

Japanese price, after converting from yen to dollars.

 

[Deku Tree]

Since Sony will go head-to-head with Nintendo, which priced its new handheld gaming device at $136, we do not expect PSP to be priced at more than $200. Consequently, even if Sony sells PSP at the lower end of our projection, it could produce substantial incremental revenues in the second half of the fiscal year 2006.

So how do they expect Sony going to make a profit on the PSP at that price?

 

[TekunoRobby]

http://forums.gaming-age.com/showthread.php?t=18399

That and we have a PSP thread stickied up at the top.

 

[mashoutposse]

If it comes out at $199, then it will launch with a huge bang and overtake the DS almost immediately.

Of course, it will likely be closer to $249.

 

[puck1337]

I'll believe it when I hear it from Sony. And if it's true, I'd expect a DS pricedrop to $129 almost immediately.

 

[MassiveAttack]

Erk. Delete this thread if so desired.

 

[Insertia]

If Sony wants to off DS easily $199 would be a sweet price.

So how do they expect Sony going to make a profit on the PSP at that price?

They don't. At that price they expect it to significantly raise Sony's revenue, which it would do.

 

[Chittagong]

Those guys are on crack. Under 200 dollars? I'll buy a million units, disassemble them and sell the components to Nintendo.

 

[TheGreenGiant]

GOOD GOD

 

[jarrod]

Just a sidenote...

-SCEI's 3 million projection was worldwide, not domestic. And like Nintendo's 4 million DS figure, it reflects supply, not demand (which the S&P evaluation seems to ignore).

-At under $200, SCEI will have reveresed on it's 'for profit' model Deering suggested before, to an extreme point. Current estimates I've seen place PSP around $300-350 to manufacture.

-Yay, S&P. My boyfriend works there.

 

[Link316]

-At under $200, SCEI will have reveresed on it's 'for profit' model Deering suggested before, to an extreme point. Current estimates I've seen place PSP around $300-350 to manufacture.

that's not what the article says,

"We expect margins for PSP to be between 6% and 8%, assuming that Sony has not mastered cost efficiency at that point in the PSP's life cycle."

 

[jarrod]

that's not what the article says,

"We expect margins for PSP to be between 6% and 8%, assuming that Sony has not mastered cost efficiency at that point in the PSP's life cycle."

Erm, aren't they talking about software impacting overall revenue there rather than manufacturing costs? Are they really suggesting $200 would only be a 6-8% loss if SCEI hasn't mastered cost efficency? :/

 

[JackFrost2012]

Of course, it will likely be closer to $249.

This is true; $349 is much closer to $249 than $199.

(I expect $279-299 in the US)

 

[Link316]

Erm, aren't they talking about software impacting overall revenue there rather than manufacturing costs? Are they really suggesting $200 would only be a 6-8% loss if SCEI hasn't mastered cost efficency? :/

LOL! that's not what they mean at all, obviously you already have your mind set on the PSP pricing & costs, and it doesn't look like anybody, not dudes who crunch these kind of numbers for a living and probably not even Sony is gonna change your mind on it, so LOL just nevermind

 

[TekunoRobby]

Ha ha there are two threads that deal with the exact same report and both are getting constant replies. Wacky GAF Day I tells ya.

 

[Spazbiohaz]

I don't believe the Hype!

 

[Ranger X]

I thought this was confirmed info. Tks to make us loose our time.

 

[jarrod]

LOL! that's not what they mean at all, obviously you already have your mind set on the PSP pricing & costs, and it doesn't look like anybody, not dudes who crunch these kind of numbers for a living and probably not even Sony is gonna change your mind on it, so LOL just nevermind

Wow, thanks for explaining the finer details for me. LOL!

 

[neptunes]

If Sony releases a portable with only 90 minutes battery life it deserves to fail. Period.

It wont be 90 minutes.

The battery life is like a variable at this point.

 

[Brofist]

This one should stay up, some losers derailed and trolled the other too much.

Anyway this is obviously on the optimistic side of things to say the least. These guys can analyze all day, but until an announcement is made it means shite. $200 would be all good for me though, in any case.

I've seen a lot of different angles on this, but I haven't read the report that stated real manufacturing costs, or even these $350-400 speculated costs you guys toss around? Can you link me to em.

 

[neptunes]

The 350-400 figure was speculation after deering announced a price point (in Euro).

That comment was made at the beginning of the year and before e3.

 

[jarrod]

Well, excepting predicted costs from game makers like Koei or Atari (both of which skewed higher even), I remember reading some recent articles citing higher costs here on GAF... I'll do a quick search to try and find 'em, but no I don't beleive they were based off Deering's old quotes either.

 

[DrLazy]

At $200 I think Sony can steal a serious chunk out of the handheld market. Why doesn't sony just write off the 1st generation PSP as a loss (aka pull a Microsoft) and then focus on the next generation to make money. I think it's pretty solid buisness plan, better than getting virtually no share of the market, which is what they'll get if the launch over $250.

 

[Brofist]

At $200 I think Sony can steal a serious chunk out of the handheld market. Why doesn't sony just write off the 1st generation PSP as a loss (aka pull a Microsoft) and then focus on the next generation to make money. I think it's pretty solid buisness plan, better than getting virtually no share of the market, which is what they'll get if the launch over $250.

Actually you have a point in a way.

1. Selling at a loss is still better than not selling at all.
2. If they release too high, only to see mediocre sales, and have to drop the price quickly they are back at point A, except now with lower mindshare along with losing more money per unit.
3. Minimal loss or large loss, they are expecting to make the money on peripherals and software anyway.

 

[jarrod]

Found some references...

Most analysts and executives expect the device will retail for somewhere between $199 and $349

PSP will also function as a digital music and video player. Analysts also predict that it will cost as much as $300

...btw, Atari predicted $500 and Koei $600 iirc. Obviously those numbers are a bit insane, but PSP emstimations seem to be allover the place, it's not like $200 is the favorite figure. :/

 

[ravingloon]

NM

 

[jarrod]

At $200 I think Sony can steal a serious chunk out of the handheld market. Why doesn't sony just write off the 1st generation PSP as a loss (aka pull a Microsoft) and then focus on the next generation to make money. I think it's pretty solid buisness plan, better than getting virtually no share of the market, which is what they'll get if the launch over $250.

The big problem here is that they'll have to do the same thing a year later with PlayStation 3. Also handhelds are notoriously soft for game sales, meaning they likely can't recover from hardware losses through software as easily.

 

[tedtropy]

I don't think Sony's ever released a new product starting out at what most what consider a reasonable price. Look at their laptops, PDAs, new audio players, etc. Granted, this is a whole different ballpark for Sony and they're going to have to come out swinging hard to compete with the mother of all handhelds, Nintendo, but I just don't see a $200 launch price being remotely possible. The price of the technology going into that device would just be too much of a profit loss for Sony. Hell, I'm willing to bet the new-age LCD they're using in the device would be the bulk of the $200 alone...

 

[Brofist]

True, if it followed Sony's prcing trend it would be higher. But Nintendo is dictating the handheld gaming market now, so they can't go too high either.

 

[Insertia]

Hell, I'm willing to bet the new-age LCD they're using in the device would be the bulk of the $200 alone...

There are portable DVD players out there with far better screens twice the size of PSP's that don't cost $200.

 

[TekunoRobby]

Whoever merged the thread into this one, I salute you sir.

 

[mashoutposse]

There are portable DVD players out there with far better screens twice the size of PSP's that don't cost $200.

Which models are these?