I've had that problem a few times myself. No hard feelings, I just had to chuckle at it.
I agree with your assessment. I think Timeaisis is suspicious, but I think Nin has had enough fingers pointed at him from Fran and Ouro that I doubt he's HHA.
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Animal Crossing Mafia |OT| - Making Animal Friends Is Awesome!
- Thread starter Karkador
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I've had that problem a few times myself. No hard feelings, I just had to chuckle at it.
I agree with your assessment. I think Timeaisis is suspicious, but I think Nin has had enough fingers pointed at him from Fran and Ouro that I doubt he's HHA.
they may have voiced something but the only mafia that voted on in earlier in the game was hobohodo. You'd have to convince me that they weren't just putting some distance between each other. Especially in later days when hobo, ouro, and franco, fell one by one.
I think it's enough to back off a little bit but it hardly clears nin of anything, we have Timeaisis as our best bet for now and once he's gone we'll have to see.
That voted on Nin*
See, I cant be mad about you for thinking like that, since it moves the game forward and i am responsible myself for getting all this suspicion. I always thought you were like a brainless pitbull but after this post i know that you are not missing one
Regarding Timeasis, i had some doubts about him earlier on and i posted my feelings regarding him some days ago. Since his way of posting is not very like him.
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
Something about nin that makes me think he's not HHA is how franconp treated him yesterday. He was trying to get him lynched instead, but then saying that if nin does turn out to be the secret HHA, we can lynch the double house this day phase because ultron.
Now, it could've been just a way to cover for nin because franconp was on the chopping block and didn't have any way out, and I'm not writing that off, but it still seems a bit of a risky move. Had people just gone "Ok yeah sure", and nin was the secret HHA, they would've lost 2 in 2 days, and probably the game
Just something to think about
Now, it could've been just a way to cover for nin because franconp was on the chopping block and didn't have any way out, and I'm not writing that off, but it still seems a bit of a risky move. Had people just gone "Ok yeah sure", and nin was the secret HHA, they would've lost 2 in 2 days, and probably the game
Just something to think about
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
I think you mean 4 in 4 days
Oh wow, we've really been on a roll. I think I didn't realise because KK was evicted the other day
YOU BASTARDS
Also, I'm back onto Timeaisis. Works with my initial read of him as HHA (see here). Plus, he was the killing blow for both Hobohodo and franconp, which screams to me "Well they're dead, might as well cover my ass"
i think i'm getting tunnel vision with toma. ouro is tom nook and immune to detection. i guess i can't fathom what that means. he was immune to detection, yet placed next to a guy who did detection? was his role just there to pick up tucah's comings and goings? i mean that sounds like a convenient role claim if they were working together, and it was made in desperation.
they've been playing dangerously the entire game. i mean franconp revealed hobo for us all. and franconp revealed his roleclaim early as hell too. buses could have been thrown any number of ways, from all directions. at this point one could only assume this town is half corpse half bus
tomakasatnav
Member
Hopefully the role confirmation I did Kalor (where he hadn't said everything about his role and I could fill the gap, and the fact he's now been killed to confirm his role) puts me as light sleeper.
I could still be HHA, but I'm not sure how well the light sleepr role works in terms of the game.
Having thought what I mentioned before about RNH, I guess Fran must have investigated him on the night I had activity. At that point I had Ouro (HHA), Retro (Roleclaim Gossip, which Ouro confirmed so presumably Fran wouldn't investigate him) and finally RNH in my area.
because of certain things i've said that might convince mafia that I know something other players don't. Of course who knows if I'm just playing with the HHA and trying to save my own hide every night.
I do, that's who
What night was this? Just curious.
tomakasatnav
Member
Night 5. There was a bit of kerfuffle since I was originally told there was no activity, but that was later clarified.
Due to the fact that Fran called me out for lying when I originally posted no activity, it means Fran investigated in my area or there's a HHA which he knew took a (detectable) action. I'm going with the former personally.
Yeah, it seems likely that Fran actually did investigate RNH that night, as he claimed.
I'm going to put this out now, just in case life gets busy again. If I see a good reason to change it, I will.
Vote: Timeaisis
(shrug) Less "scum," more "best possible target." I'm not nearly as certain of him as I was of Hobo, Ouro, or Ultron, (who turned out to be Fran,) but I think he's the best shot we've got right now.
Well since he was town last game and posted a lot more frequently in comparison to this game I am inclined to think that he has something to hide. Since we are now less than 10 players this can mean a lot of things. But i will take the leap and say that it's more possible for him to be scum.
There just hasn't been much discussion over the last day so if we don't have anything to say we might as well get it over with. I'd love to hear someone's insight if they have any.
Devilage Ass is currently celebrating marriage equality
nice avatar. and congratulations on catching up a little bit. ;P
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
I've become less sure of Timeaisis since last day phase, but he still seems the most likely option. Chances are they just targeted Haly night 3, and Timeaisis got brought into the fold night 2.
To be honest, the fact he completely ignored my argument a couple of day phases ago has really rubbed me the wrong way as well.
VOTE: Timeaisis
Which brings us to 3. Everyone else hold off for now, let's see if he defends himself at all.
To be honest, the fact he completely ignored my argument a couple of day phases ago has really rubbed me the wrong way as well.
VOTE: Timeaisis
Which brings us to 3. Everyone else hold off for now, let's see if he defends himself at all.
we're at 4. but I don't think he's going to defend himself, he's had the opportunity and he made that one weak post and disappeared.
Four, but yes, otherwise, I agree. One more vote will seal it, so let's hold for a moment and see what develops.
Timeaisis tends to pop in and out. I've never been sure if he just plays quiet observer or if he is really busy enough that he can't post regularly.
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
Ah, missed squidy's, my mistake
That's the thing, he has no reason to play quiet observer. He survived to the end last time and was a regular villager, but posted way more and with way more analysis. Like his posts were regularly a good few hundred words. Not this popping in and out with a "Hmm, maybe" kind of thing.
That makes sense, I'm just trying to make sure I look at all the angles. I can't tell if my habit of overthinking things is a help or hindrance in this game. So far it's been a bit of both.
I don't see any merits in your arguments against me. If I'm a lynch of convenience, so be it.
What makes me more likely to be the hidden member than anyone else? What reason do you have to think I've lied to you? How does fran's affiliation implicate me but no one else? These are questions I'd need answered before I even begin to defend myself, as right now the only defense I can launch is that I'm quiet and fran was HHA.
And yes, I unfortunately have been busy and have not had the time I'd have like to defend myself. Such is life.
I already addressed this 'argument'. Also "I'm quiet and fran was HHA" is like the opposite of a defense.
That said, we know there's only one lost partner so at most one person investigated could be lost partner, we suggest that mafia found lost partner through investigation because they had many kill opportunities and investigation oppportunities and they only missed their kill on n3 when they likely targeted Haly.
From there, franconp was willing to sacrifice RNH which would have been a MASSIVE backfire if RNH was lost partner and someone had taken him up on it as it would have confirmed him and RNH both as mafia. Furthermore RNH has been fairly effective as a townmember and seems to be paying attention to the game and playing to win. Razmos has had his ability confirmed and has claimed a role. From what we've seen of the game the role he has shown himself to have makes him highly unlikely to be mafia.
Why would you vote last? why would you broadcast that you were going to withhold discussion and judgement until the end of the day? It's not the only time you've done that.
the simple explanation is that you wanted to know which way the wind was blowing before you acted.
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
You did the same for Hobo as well. Comes across as "Well I can't save them at this point, might as well cover my tracks"
What an argument it is! Your basing it all on the assumption the hidden partner has been found and that it's more likely that I am he?
So I'm HHA because you are pretty sure the hidden partner is found and who else could it be!? Ok, I guess. I cannot change your mind from this poorly reasoned conclusion.
As for my late voting...I've been busy. That's my defense of that. I voted last yesterday because I thought fran suspicious, as all were. And we were right. I'm not sure how I'm to defend myself from a bunch of your hunches.
I will say I hope you do some better analysis on evicting the next day, as diverting attention to the flavor of the week is boon for all mafia.
To be honest, you seen suspicious yourself being so adamant about my affiliation, but I see no reason to go down that path now.
started with 23 players and lets suggest 4 of them were mafia who knew each other,
so on the first night, since they coordinate investigation they had 2/19 chance to find the lost partner, then we lynched someone who hadn't been investigated so night 2 they had
2/16 n2(remember we eliminate previous checks as well as night kills), then we lynched another town and n3 they had 2/13 but the theory is they tried to kill haly here so it's more like 1/12, then we lynched another town and n4 they had 2/10 chance. day 5 we lynched hobo and so didn't reduce their check pool and they chose to kill mazre who had previously been checked (according to franconp) but they also killed kalor so they had 2/8 chance to find lost partner if they hadn't already. Then we lynched ouro and kitty and they killed haly and franconp had his last check, that's 2/5 to find lost partner. We evict ultron and they kill ezekal for 1/2
obviously these numbers are rough and don't account for reads or conscious decision-making but you're looking at like a 13% chance that mafia don't find their lost partner by this point.
It doesn't add up. Fran investigates Timeaisis, calls him Ordinary Villager. Investigates Hobo, outs him. I mean he obviously never actually investigate Hobo, since he knew Hobo was HHA already. It could be fucking anyone they investigated that night. I don't think Timeaisis is HHA because of that investigation. It means nothing. If you think, "What was their strategy?". I think their strategy was to build credibility on Franconp's end. Why? I think they came to the obvious conclusion that the roomies were virtually untouchable. I think this was a design flaw by Karkador. From what was an obvious Day #1 eviction, I think they would have traveled to the end had Ultron not made that incredible play of throwing himself under the bus.
Maybe Toma is actually Light Sleeper. Maybe he lied and cried Light Sleeper because he was on the chopping block. Maybe he's an Undercover Light Sleeper and the reason Ourobolus's HHA power existed was to allow the HHA to discover Tucah's Commuter status without interception from any possible evictions from Ouro, and from that piece together that there was another Commuter in play. In this scenario, Kalor may have been working as an accidental double agent. With good intentions, he may have been accidentally revealing when Haly left town, thus allowing HHA to evict him (which is what appears actually happened). We don't know the extent to which the commuters could have caused problems with HHA evictions, because they got lucky and evicted one of them on day 1.
As of right now, his power seems virtually useless to town unless RNH is HHA (and actually has a night move) and Fran lied about his role to cover. We know Karkador placed these roles strategically, and right now the only use I could see for Toma's power is for picking up that a now known townie was leaving the village. Not to mention my prior suspicions, such as the fact that the role only came out (despite Kalor revealing his) once he was up for eviction. If you look to Ezekel's old voting graph. You can see that it was not the work of now known HHA pushing for his eviction. http://i.imgur.com/uXC9gr1.jpg Instead of playing off this scenario to hide Hobohodo from the chopping block, they let it proceed as normal. Not wanting to drag another HHA into the mix?
How did he get revealed? Maybe Ouro noticed his power was suspicious and their first strategy was to figure it out. Evict Tucah, who was within his area. Then follow up with an Investigation on Toma. At this point they could've "claimed" they investigated Razmos (which was a suspicious as fuck move) to hide the fact that they uncovered Toma.
vote: tomakasatnav
Maybe Toma is actually Light Sleeper. Maybe he lied and cried Light Sleeper because he was on the chopping block. Maybe he's an Undercover Light Sleeper and the reason Ourobolus's HHA power existed was to allow the HHA to discover Tucah's Commuter status without interception from any possible evictions from Ouro, and from that piece together that there was another Commuter in play. In this scenario, Kalor may have been working as an accidental double agent. With good intentions, he may have been accidentally revealing when Haly left town, thus allowing HHA to evict him (which is what appears actually happened). We don't know the extent to which the commuters could have caused problems with HHA evictions, because they got lucky and evicted one of them on day 1.
As of right now, his power seems virtually useless to town unless RNH is HHA (and actually has a night move) and Fran lied about his role to cover. We know Karkador placed these roles strategically, and right now the only use I could see for Toma's power is for picking up that a now known townie was leaving the village. Not to mention my prior suspicions, such as the fact that the role only came out (despite Kalor revealing his) once he was up for eviction. If you look to Ezekel's old voting graph. You can see that it was not the work of now known HHA pushing for his eviction. http://i.imgur.com/uXC9gr1.jpg Instead of playing off this scenario to hide Hobohodo from the chopping block, they let it proceed as normal. Not wanting to drag another HHA into the mix?
How did he get revealed? Maybe Ouro noticed his power was suspicious and their first strategy was to figure it out. Evict Tucah, who was within his area. Then follow up with an Investigation on Toma. At this point they could've "claimed" they investigated Razmos (which was a suspicious as fuck move) to hide the fact that they uncovered Toma.
vote: tomakasatnav
I still fail to see how you go from
Premise 1. The lost partner has most likely been found
Premise2. Timeaisis is one of the many people who has been investigated
to
C: Timeaisis is HHA!
Where do you rule out the possibility of the others aren't the hidden partner?
Your first premise based on unfounded conclusions. I mean, your right the partner has probably been found...probably. Let's for the sake of argument say that's a sure thing.
As for premise 2, you are correct. I was indeed investigated...great.
Now getting to the conclusion. It just doesn't logically follow. You make no arguments for why I am singled out amongst everyone else who could possibly be investigated or evicted or converted through different unknown means to the hha as the hidden partner.
Why am I singled out? I'd like to know before I'm evicted. Everyone who votes for me please give me such a post. It will be useful for others after I go. At least give me this much, accusors. And be as clear as you can.
Yeah, I gotta say that I don't get the point of the Light Sleeper role at all, besides ferreting out the commuters.
You might have to spell this out for me because I wasn't in the game on night 1. Why was Fran investigating Razmos suspicious?
You might have to spell this out for me because I wasn't in the game on night 1. Why was Fran investigating Razmos suspicious?
What a coincidence, Time, I was just writing this post which I think answers this question.
Franconp cleared three people who are still alive. If I were in his position, I would "clear" one of the Mafia to put them above suspicion, just like he did to himself by feeding Hobo (who was going down anyway,) to the town.
He cleared Timeaisis, Razmos, and RNH. As Squidyj pointed out, Razmos has a confirmed role, and it seems unlikely that a Gossip would also be the lost partner. Franconp tried to sacrifice RNH in order to confirm his role as Investigator, which would have backfired spectacularly if RNH had been Mafia. So this assumes that Fran was stupid, which I don't believe.
That leaves Timeaisis.
In light of Fran's moves to generate trust and respect, Time calling the final vote on Ultron also makes sense. He pulled the trigger, so to speak, on another HHA so that we believed he was town, because why would the HHA so willingly finish off one of their own?
The problem as I see it is that we expected that evicting the roomies would provide us with new information, which it did. Unfortunately, that information is all kind of tainted by the fact that a lot of the information we relied upon was a lie, so now we have to question a lot more than we thought.
There are still a lot of questions, as Darryl just pointed out. What if the Lost Partner is someone else, perhaps whoever Fran actually investigated when he claimed to investigate Hobo? What if Fran was lying? What if Fran never tried to protect his fellow Mafia? (And indeed, why didn't he also try to protect Ourobolus?)
As I said earlier, I'm not 100% sold on Timeaisis being HHA. But the sad truth is, I don't see a compelling argument yet for anyone else. You are not the definite answer, Time, but you are the closest I've got. And actually, I kind of hope you aren't HHA, because I've had a lot of respect for you during this game.
Thank you for that. I suppose in addition to the points your brought up, I'd like to also add that others have been investigated as well but were never revealed. They are equally likely to be the hidden partner as me. As is potentially whoever was targeted on night 3 but didn't die.
It feels to me like I'm being accused because my name is the only one that aligns with the current theory that the partner has been found.
If that's the case, well I suppose I cannot make any defense that will change anyone's mind, save for making a good argument against someone else, which I don't presently have.
Razmos already revealed his role.
I was really hoping Timeaisis would bring up something like this on his own
I wanted to see good logic and a clear understanding of the game from him and I haven't seen that today. Also I'll say that Fran did try to protect ouro, he tried to convince us to wait on lynching ouro so he could 'investigate' his mafia teammate, who knows how that would have worked out.
That makes sense. Thanks for explaining.
Yeah, that's part of why I asked you earlier who you found suspicious. I was hoping it would shake something loose to either confirm or deny your innocence, but on the chance that you aren't HHA, I was hoping to grab a thread we could follow in the coming days.
thats a little better. Who would these unrevealed checks be?
I was really hoping Timeaisis would bring up something like this on his own
Also I'll say that Fran did try to protect ouro, he tried to convince us to wait on lynching ouro so he could 'investigate' his mafia teammate, who knows how that would have worked out.
That point had already been made by the time I posted. I wanted to bring up the point of those investigated and were never revealed, as it appeals to your probablility obsessed reasoning. There are, by my count, likely three more.
By the war, are you trying to anger me so I lash out and make an obvious mistake? Because it sure seems like it sometimes.
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